Max Scherzer against the Phillies. If there was ever a chance to redeem yourself in losing a perfect game on the last out the very next day, this would be the pitcher and the team to do so. From a daily fantasy perspective, I’ve always said that in order for a pitcher to pay for his price, he has to have a reasonable expectation of doing 2 things: Allow 3 runs or less, and strike out 1 batter for every thousand dollars you pay. You may ask why I don’t include innings or hits in this formula of mine, and it is a valid question. For one, if a pitcher has allowed less than 3 runs up to a certain point, he has a good chance of remaining in the game. Also, if a pitcher is going to strikeout plenty of hitters, he must pitch plenty of innings, therefore that basis is completely covered. I don’t worry about hits so much, because they tend to correlate with runs scored and high contact rates (which pitchers that strike hitters out typically don’t have). So this all begs the question, “is Max Scherzer worth paying 14K for on DraftKings?” My answer is no. Now to preface this, you will never find someone that lends themselves to the “pay for pitching” mantra than myself. The reason I say no does not boil down to one simple point, but rather to many. My first reason to avoid Scherzer is that while the Phillies are the worst in basically every hitting category ever, they actually don’t strike out that much. Even against one of the more strikeout prone teams such as the Astros or Cubs, I would have a hard time giving any pitcher the reasonable expectation to reach 14 strikeouts. Another reason, maybe even bigger so than the first, is the fact that there are so many other solid, high-upside options for 3-5K cheaper. So should you pay 14K for 14 Ks? Yes! Should you pay 14K for Scherzer today? No!
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 20 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Johnny Cueto, SP: $10,600 – The Mets continue to struggle offensively and Cueto is, well, Cueto. Of the upper tier options, Cueto is probably the most safe, but does not have the highest upside.
Corey Kluber, SP: $10,300 – As good as he has been at times, he has really had some bad games this year. We are getting him at a bit of a discount today and I would not be surprised if he’s the highest scoring pitcher of the day, though he does come with a bit of risk.
Francisco Liriano, SP: $10,000 – Liriano has always been a pitcher that was going to put up high strikeout numbers. This season, he has reduced his walks, which were his biggest downfall in the past. Though the Braves don’t strikeout a ton, Freeman is hurt which makes the match-up significantly better. Liriano will get his Ks.
Tyson Ross, SP: $9,100 – Tyson Ross just narrowly missed a complete game shutout in his last start, giving up a run in the 8th, but continued on to finish the game. In that start against the DBacks, he posted 9 Ks and 39 DK points. Today, he again gets the DBacks. Look for him to remain dominant against them this time out.
John Lackey, SP: $7,800 – John Lackey has been incredible at home this year, posting a 1.81 ERA compared to a 5.40 ERA on the road. Lackey gets the Cubs today, whose tendency to strikeout has been well documented. I expect somewhere in the vicinity of 7 innings, 7 Ks, 3 ER for Lackey today.
Stephen Vogt, 1B/C: $4,200 – Vogt had been in a little bit of a slump, but not anymore. He has back to back 3 hit games and three 3 hit games in the last 4. His splits show that he is much more comfortable against right handed pitching, which is just what he gets today.
Jonathon Lucroy, C: $3,600 – Sure Lucroy was terrible before his injury early in the season, but since returning from the DL he is hitting .270. We all know his power is there, and he has a solid match-up with Trevor May today. He his pretty safe at $3,600 with some upside as well.
Eric Hosmer, 1B: $4,100 – Hosmer continues to be under-priced on DK, with his price hovering in the high 3 thousands and the low 4 thousands. He always has the ability to have a monster game against right handed pitching, and is coming off a 2 hit night.
Anthony Rendon, 2B: $4,100 – Rendon has been hot over the last 4 games in which he is 8/15 a the plate. He gets a Phillies pitcher not named Cole Hamels in Philadelphia tonight, so expect a solid game from him.
Neil Walker, 2B: $3,400 – Another hitter that continues to be under-priced, Walker always has the capability of hitting a home run. He is the Pirates clean-up hitter for a reason…
Carlos Correa, SS: $4,900 – How can you not play this guy right now? He has not looked back since coming to the big leagues. He’s been what everyone expected Ian Desmond to be, except he puts the ball in play better.
Jose Reyes, SS: $4,500 – There is value in positions other than SS today, and I don’t care for the cheap options so I will be paying up for one of the top 2 guys there today. Reyes is one of the few Blue Jays who hit righties better than lefties.
Adrian Beltre, 3B: $4,100 – One of the 2 BvP specials of the day, Beltre has a plus-.300 average against Buehrle in almost 40 ABs.
Brock Holt, 3B/OF: $3,500 – Holt is a guy who continues to hit 2nd in the lineup, and hit very well. He is also a guy who’s price continues to stay low. Given these factors, along with his multiple positional eligibility, he has found himself in my lineups a lot lately. Today is no different.
Justin Upton, OF: $4,400 – I’ve gotten to where I almost ignore the Padres when they face a right handed pitcher (unless I’m pitching against then), but they get a lefty today. With a 4 game hit streak and 2 doubles in that span, Upton has a solid chance to go yard against Robbie Ray today.
Yoenis Cespedes, OF: $4,400 – It’s been documented that I’m not a lover of all things BvP, especially with the sample size of this one, but Yoenis is 8/12 with 4 HRs in his career against Quintana. This does make sense though, as Cespedes tends to hit lefties well.
Ryan Raburn, OF: $2,600 – Raburn should be under consideration for your lineup every time Cleveland faces a left handed pitcher. He gets one today, and has back to back games with a double.
I’m only happy when it rains
It might be a good idea to pay attention to the weather in St. Louis, but other than that it looks pretty clear today (finally)
Doing lines in Vegas
The Rangers/Blue Jays have a line at 9 today, so I would make sure I had at least someone from that game in my lineup. 3 other games have lines at 8.5: White Sox/Tigers, Yankees/Astros, and Twins/Brewers.
