Random Man I’m Making Up: I’d give anything to know the best DFS pitcher plays today.
Me: Yu, Wood.
Random Man I’m Making Up: Oh for sure. I just wish I knew where to go for them.
Me: That wasn’t a question. Yu, Wood.
Random Man I’m Making Up: I would what?
We imaginarily went around like that for a good five minutes before I lost patience with that made-up scenario. I couldn’t in good faith tell him to come to my Razzball column today because I’m the same guy who gave you Steven Matz and his 7 ER mound-shatting, and who is an Adalberto Mondesi truther. But you, faithful and appreciated reader, are already here, so let’s see where the numbers point me today.
Streamonator says that Frankie Montas is the play of the day, but he’s facing Cleveland, which has been far better offensively than anybody anticipated. I’m going to pivot to Friar hurler Yu Darvish (FD: $10,500), who faces the Pittsburgh Pirates and their .622 OPS vs RHPs (21st in MLB). Darvish is inconsistent and can have blowups, but his last start was nails, and let’s bank on Yu’s K potential and a surging San Diego offense to rack up some big points for us today.
My second pick on the bump is Giants lefty Alex Wood (FD: $9,500/DK: $8,700). Wood’s sinker has ticked up to almost 93 mph, and is spotting it consistently at the top of the strike zone for a 34% CSW%. He’s pairing it with sliders (37% CSW%) that can make the best LHBs chase out of the zone and a changeup that the Statcast location plot shows he’s getting to consistently dive low and away from RHBs. This has helped Wood post a really solid 2.51 ERA. Wood is facing the punchless Nationals and their .581 OPS vs LHPs (26th in MLB). Avoid Juan Soto, Woody, and enjoy the rest of the ride.
The KC Royals are even worse against lefties than the Nationals, and that’s who Nestor Cortes gets tonight, but frankly, I liked my headline, and it didn’t fit with Nestor. If you liked my headline, then sport Wood tonight, but I wouldn’t call you crazy if you played the Mustachioed Mound Master for $500 more.
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Paul Goldschmidt, C/1B: FD: $3,500/DK: $4,700 – Goldy has a career slugging percentage of almost .600 vs. lefties and an OPS of 1.020, and against Madison Bumgarner in particular, over 71 PAs Goldy has a 1.015 OPS against. Please roster.
Tommy Edman, 2B: FD: $3,400/DK: $4,900 – Edman is having a great season so far, hitting .310, getting on base over 40% of the time, and slugging at a career high rate. Edman’s Cardinals are facing Arizona lefty Madison Bumgarner, and his numbers get even better when facing lefties, as his OPS is over 150 points higher in those matchups (.867 vs .710 vs RHPs). If Tommy Callahan wants wingies, then Tommy Edman wants lefties. This is a great match-up for the Cards in general, who have the best OPS in baseball vs. lefties by almost 70 points, but I will stop short of defecating in a box and marking it guaranteed for a great Edman performance tonight. But don’t take my word for it–you can get a good look at a t-bone steak by…wait, it’s gotta be your bull…
Nolan Arenado, 3B: FD: $4,000/DK $5,300 – Arenado started the year off by being named the NL Player of the Week and has barely slowed down. He, too, gets to face the lefty Bumgarner, and Arenado has a career OPS of almost 1.000 vs. lefties. If you’re into stacks, the Cardinals are a good one today.
Javier Baez, SS: FD: $3,100/DK: $4,500 – Detroit batters have really struggled this season, but Baez has come off the IL aggressively, pounding a double and a HR in his second game back. Javy gets out of the chilly Midwest and gets to enjoy Chavez Ravine which was 5th best for HRs in 2021. Baez gets to face Dodgers lefty Tyler Anderson, and El Mago is primed for some magic at the plate, as his career .884 OPS vs lefties is a whopping 130 points higher than vs righties.
Tyler Naquin, OF: FD $3,000/DK $2,900 – I don’t make the rules here; Hittertron does. It’s got Tyler Naquin 5th overall among hitters, and no doubt a large part of that is playing at Coors and facing Antoni-oh-no Senzatela. What are we even doing here if we don’t trust Rudy and Hittertron?
Tommy Pham, OF: FD $3,200/DK $2,700 – Another Hittertron call, as it’s got Pham 7th overall. Would you rather have him than Giancarlo Stanton (FD: $3,100) facing Kris Bubic in Kaufman Stadium? I’ll leave that up to you, but I’m a sucker for the banquet beer, and I’m a sucker for Hittertron. Let’s roll, Pham.
Alex Verdugo, OF: FD $3,500/DK $3,700 – Verdugo gets to face Spenser Watkins and the Orioles, and if my advanced scouting is correct, Baltimore didn’t move back the RF wall. Verdugo is Hittertron’s 18th ranked hitter today, and this is a solid price for this potential.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Weather nor wind looks to be a problem at any venues today, or at least not enough of one to let it affect games being played or to help impact outlier performances with high winds blowing out or in.
Doing Lines In Vegas
I’ll take the Cardinals, their MLB-best OPS vs. lefties and their +125 on Draft Kings over the D-backs.
RIP Nacho.
