Welcome to post-trade deadline DFS! We’ve reached the point in the season where not only do we have to evaluate the player match-ups, but also the team motivation levels for each game on the docket. There are 6 distinct team makeups once we’ve passed the deadline and gotten into the dog days of summer. The trick now for DFS is to find the lineups that have reasons to play hard each and every night, along with the talent level to produce solid stack results. Also to find the pitching match-ups where they are going up against teams that have lost the will to win and just want to get to the beach in 60 days.
Team Type #1 – “The Juggernaut” – These are the teams that have the ability to go off any given night due to their lineup prowess. We don’t really treat these lineups any different than before the deadline. Unless of course, they traded themselves up into this category. Always look to stack these lineups against weaker pitching. Teams included here – Dodgers/Padres/Yankees/Blue Jays/Braves/Mets
Team Type #2 – “The Motivated” – These are the lineups that are in the thick of the playoff races, and have the offensive talent to be dangerous any night. Look for games where a team already planning their vacations goes up against a team like this. Perfect example would be the Phillies this weekend vs the Nationals. Teams included here – Phillies/Brewers/Cardinals/ Giants/Twins/
Team Type #3 -” The Coasters” – These teams are likely in the playoffs and not likely to be challenged. They also could be eliminated teams that have enough talent to be dangerous but won’t be looking to push any extra buttons. Lack of motivation is the common element for both, so it’s hard to go after most of these teams (Except when the Rockies are at Coors of course). Teams included here – Astros/Rockies/Rangers
Team Type #4 – “The Hungry” – These teams are experiencing their first playoff races in some time, or have young lineups where high-level talent is getting their first big league exposure. Either way if one of them runs into a team mailing it in it can provide some solid fireworks like the Royals this weekend. Teams included here – Guardians/White Sox/Orioles/Mariners/Royals
Team Type #5 – “The Punchless” – These teams are playing aging veterans or have Quad A players up to finish off the season. There may be a few young studs trying to make a name for themselves. For the most part, however, they are already onto next season. Look for pitchers playing these rosters. Teams included here – Red Sox/Reds/Diamondbacks/Cubs/Angels/Nationals/Marlins/Pirates/Athletics/Tigers
Team Type #6 -“Tampa” – And then there is the Rays. They are in the thick of a playoff race, but devoid of most offensive firepower. Tampa gonna Tampa – Onto Tonight’s plays!
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main evening slate on Tuesday, August 9th, 2022. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 14-game slate starting at 6:05 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you play on Fanduel I encourage you to sign up for the DFS tools to help you make the best decisions for your lineups on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo.
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James Kaprielian, SP: $5,600. Lots of expensive options to choose from Tuesday night so I started looking to see if there were any potential plays at the value end of the spectrum. And look who it is, my buddy James! Kaprielian is getting fairly lucky, but he has been taking care of business against weaker lineups like the Angels. He has allowed only 7 earned runs in his last six outings, hitting 15+ DFS points in 4 of those. He scattered 6 hits and a walk against the Angels last week over 5.1 IP to earn a victory. Potential Angels lineups are only a career 13 for 61 vs Kaprielian with 1 Home Run. He also has a 14/1 Strikeout to walk ratio in his career against them. Gimme.
Jose Urquidy, SP: $7,100. Ended up with 2 value arms and will look to put some power bats in play. It’s not often you see a pitcher re-invent themselves mid-season, but that’s exactly what has happened with Urquidy. Nine starts ago he stopped throwing his cutter and added a slider. While it hasn’t been a high-valued pitch for him, it has drastically increased the effectiveness of both his fastball and change-up. He has now thrown 9 straight quality starts with a 5-1 record and is averaging 5+ strikeouts over that span. The Rangers strikeout at the 5th highest rate in MLB. It’s Urquidy time.
Willson Contreras, C: $4,900. Contreras somehow remained on the Cubs post deadline in a giant GM blunder. Even though they are on one of my teams I won’t be playing a ton, saving money on pitching allows me to pay up here for one of the most consistent bats behind the plate.
Pete Alonso, 1B: $5,900. Pete Beef is raking right now. In his last 15 games, he has 7 multi-hit efforts and 5 Home Runs as he has raised his batting average to .283. The biggest difference is his cutting down on the strikeouts. He has only K’d 8 times over those 15 games. He draws Mike Minor who will be facing an absolute lefty-crushing lineup the Mets can now put together. Mets stacks should be in play.
Nolan Gorman, 2B: $4,400. Nolan gets to visit Coors on Tuesday to take on Ryan Feltner and the Rockies. Feltner hasn’t figured things out yet in the majors but has flashed potential at lower levels. The Rockies have a history of ruining pitchers’ confidence using trial by fire and it seems it’s to be happening here. Gorman has 4 Home Runs in his last 15 games, but is still striking out way too often. This is a pure Coors Launchpad play.
Jose Miranda, 3B: $3,500. I placed Miranda in my lineup for the second straight week. I just think he is undervalued. And while he doesn’t have the best match-up against Julio Urias tonight, he has 6 Home runs in 75 ABs against lefties and is hitting .292.
Francisco Lindor, SS: $5,900. Lindor hasn’t had a lot of success against Mike Minor in his career going 2 for 11 with a pair of strikeouts, and the switch hitter hits worse vs lefties in his career. That being said he is having a bounce-back season. He’s reached safely in 16 straight with 7 multi-hit efforts and 3 Home runs. Minor is going to be running a gauntlet tonight.
Mark Canha, OF: $3,500. Mark Canha can hit Mike Minor. He is 6 for 18 with 3 Home Runs against him in his career. M.E.T.S. Mets, Mets, Mets!
Darin Ruf, OF: $3,000. Ruf has hit 9 of his 11 Home Runs against left-handed pitching, and he has a .357 average with a home run vs Minor in his career. He’s strictly a platoon player in New York now, but he will feast as a lefty killer.
Mookie Betts, OF: $5,900. Gotta love it when you finish off your lineup and Mookie is staring back at you. He smacked the Padres staff around for 7 hits this weekend. He will look to keep it rolling against Joe Ryan and the Twins. Ryan had a rough outing 2 trips ago vs the last top tier lineup he faced giving up 10 runs to those same Padres.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
My offensive stack is at risk as there is a chance of storms in Boston, Philly, New York, and Baltimore so keep an eye on the weather.
Doing Lines In Vegas
I did mention I do a bit of Sports Handicapping. Follow me on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche for more info. I’ll give out a Free Play here every Tuesday, but you can find all my free and premium picks for MLB and a few other sports at The Odds Breakers
Charlie Morton hasn’t been great for the Braves. -130 against a team in the Red Sox that is injured and has mailed it in is a nice price, however.
