Opening Day, is there any better feeling?  Drafts are finally behind us and we can focus on this silly game of trying to figure out why managers hit terrible playoffs in the leadoff spot and try to comprehend their bullpen usage.  A couple of things I’ll be looking at these first few weeks: with the shortened spring training, I’m guessing pitch counts will be kept in check, making wins harder to come by.  This gives a slight edge to veteran starters who can get up to speed a little quicker.  Next up, is the weather.  We’ve already had rainouts, but looking at game time temps for some of these games in the 40s makes me think pitchers will have a tiny edge.  All this brings me around to Shane Bieber vs the Royals.  Bieber was a target of mine in redraft this year, his four years in the majors don’t scream “Grizzled Vet” but it should be enough that he won’t be capped at 3 IP.  The winds in this game are looking very intense, 22 MPH but blowing across the field, not out, so if anything we’ll get more foul balls.  Biebs is $8,300 on DraftKings ($10,400 on FanDuel), so on the upper side, but not overpriced.  I like the value here and will be liberally applying Bieber to my Opening Day rosters.

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Tylor Megill, SP: DK: $7,600 / FD: $6,800 – This will be a common theme this season, picking on the Juan Sotos…I mean, Washington Nationals.  This team is so bad they are advertising Max Scherzer on their Opening Day promo billboards.

Zack Greinke, SP: DK: $5,700 / FD: $7800 – Going on the other side of Bieber, I’m pretty tempted by the cheapest starter on the DK slate here.  He checks a lot of boxes, including veteran status, pitching at home, and in a pitcher’s park.  I don’t see many roads to a win, but as I said, those could be hard to come by for everyone today.  I may build a lineup or three with Greinke in there.

Daulton Varsho, C/OF: DK: $3,200 / FD: $2,600 – I am excited to see how my preseason man crush performs this year.  I think I may be using a lot of Varsho in this spot. 

Luke Voit, 1B: DK: $3,500 / FD: $2,500 – I’m excited to watch the Padres this year, even without FTJ.  Voit should be right in the middle of the action and I think I may be picking on Bumgarner today and hoping he’s still toast.

Nick Senzel, 2B/OF: DK: $2,300 / FD: $2,100 – A great price to see if the hot spring turns into something for opening day.

Steven Kwan, OF: DK: $2,200 / FD: $2,000- The start of the season is the best time to jump on rookies that the average joe doesn’t know about while they are dirt cheap.  I’m not sure yet where Kwan will be in the order, but it shouldn’t take much to return value here.

Wil Myers, OF: DK: $3,400 / FD: $2,600 – Our BvP special of the day!  In 56 career ABs vs Bumgarner, Myers has taken him deep 6 times.  That’s nothing to scoff at!

 

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

MLB did us a favor in delaying or moving games that had rain issues, so we should be clear.  Wind is an issue in KC, as I mentioned already.  If you’re playing a slate or a single game contest where the Brewers @ Cubs is in play, it’s a day game at Wrigley with the wind blowing out with gusto.  Stack that Brew Crew!

 

Doing Lines In Vegas

San Diego has the highest implied team total today at 4.98, hence the Voit and Myers suggestions.  Pittsburgh and Cincy have the lowest implied totals so give a bump to Wainwright (also the wiliest of veterans) and Max Fried who are also the biggest favorites of the day.