Happy Wednesday, Razzball nation! MarmosDad is back today to shed some light on yet another active mid-week schedule. Today is ‘Ace Wednesday’ with a lot of top tier pitchers plying their trade against some less than threatening squads, so there is quite a bit to choose from if you’re looking for a chalk SP. Overall, there’s a good cross-section of matchups to check out, so settle in and let me do some of the legwork for you ahead of your DFS plays today.
Games start this Wednesday a bit later than the last few weeks, but not by much. We have a pair of 1:10 PM ET starts with Detroit at Tampa Bay and Atlanta at Milwaukee. The 15 game slate finishes up with two not-so-late start times as the Angels head to Texas and the White Sox visit Zack Greinke’s Royals in Kansas City (8:05 ET and 8:10 ET, respectively).
As always, I have a few bigger name plays throughout today’s notes, and some less popular value picks to round out lineups that might be heavy in other areas. Hopefully, we can spike another cycle like we did with Christian Yelich last Wednesday! No matter what, though, there are a few juicy matchups to check out so let’s get right to the business of winning you some cash with MarmosDad’s DFS tips for May 18th!
But first, like I said last week, just a reminder that a lot of the notes that I take and share here are influenced by Rudy’s Streamonator and Hittertron, as well as the other DFS tools available right here on Razzball. As a side note, Rudy’s draft software is well worth the buy next spring too! You can access all of this information, by signing up for Rudy’s tools using the DFSBot link below.
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Kevin Gausman, SP: (DK) $10,100 – There are quite a few aces on the MLB hills today, so I would not blame you for slotting in guys like Gerrit Cole (at Baltimore), Max Scherzer vs the Mets, or even Corbin Burnes for the early tilt against Atlanta. Even though he’s still pricey, my ace today is Kevin Gausman. While not exactly a value play, he’s playing like every bit of the ace that the Blue Jays had hoped for when they signed him in the off-season to replace Robbie Ray. Gausman wasn’t drafted as a top tier hurler in full season fantasy leagues this spring, but his numbers have popped off the page as just that. He recorded 45 strikeouts in 35 1/3 innings before he issued his first walk. He has given up 3 or less ER over each of his first 7 starts. A 10.8 K% with a 0.4 BB%? And he has yet to give up a long ball on the season? Throw in an, “all-in against the Mariners with just about everyone,” from Grey in last week’s podcast with B-Don, and it sounds like Gausman is less Goose and more Maverick today against the M’s.
Pablo Lopez, SP: (DK) $9,300 – This one is as close to a value play that I’m comfortable with recommending for today’s arms. He’s not priced as one of the top choices, and I don’t want to mess with the $6,000 tier of Tyler Mahle, Nick Pivetta, or Cal Quantrill. As for Lopez, of his 7 starts this year he has given up 3 runs just once, (with 4 outings of 0 ER), walked a mere 8 hitters on the season, and dropped a juicy 11 K’s on the Brewers in his last outing. For those looking for a more affordable pitcher to round out your lineups vs. a guy that has given up 8 homers so far this season in Josiah Gray, I’m looking for Pablo to continue to keep the BB’s low, and the whiffs high as he rides that 93 percentile chase rate to victory.
Alejandro Kirk, C: (DK) $4,300 There was some chatter among the DFS crew this weekend about San Francisco’s catchers, and for good reason. Anyone playing in Colorado deserves a second look, and this is definitely the case with the Giants this week. I had considered both Joey Bart and Elias Diaz for this spot today, but at the last minute, I chose to pivot back to that Toronto/Seattle game and go with Alejandro Kirk. Kirk, and his backstop buddy Danny Jansen (DK: $4,700), are ranked as the 6th and 7th catchers today, respectively, on the Hittertron. Although Kirk had a slow start to the year, he has been slashing .289/.333/.447 over his last 11 games. Throw in a pinch hit 2 RBI single Monday night against the M’s and a hard hit double last night against Logan Gilbert, and I’m in on him again. Against a lefty, I assume both Jansen and Kirk get some time in the lineup today providing Teoscar is finally greenlit to play the outfield. Playing one from this duo seems almost as perfect as if MLB decided to cast both of these catchers in a remake of the movie Twins…I’ll let you guess which guy gets the DeVito role.
Jesus Aguilar, 1B: (DK) $4,400 – I was tempted to go with Anthony Rizzo’s 10 HR or even Rhys Hoskins, ($3,300 vs Blake Snell today), but I’ll be stubborn and head back to Jesus Aguilar against the Washington Nationals again for the 6:40 PM ET start. I recommended him a few weeks back and Jesus did not save my DFS lineups. Today, this is less about Jesus’ resurrection, (hits in 6 out of his last 8 games with 2 HR, up to a 120 wRC+ on the season), and more about facing Josiah Gray who has given up 8 homers this year. Gray’s high XHR on statcast points to the possibility of Aguilar keeping up the hot streak. I’ll play a relatively well priced Jesus Aguilar and hope for more big flies in Miami today.
Jean Segura, 2B: (DK) $4,800 – I had a couple of other players that I considered here instead of Segura. Andres Gimenez at $3,600 is a decent play vs Tyler Mahle at home, but in the end, I went with Segura at home vs Blake Snell. Segura does not stand out as a huge value play, but he does register at 6th overall on the 7-day player rater with 2 HR, 4 RBI, 3 SB, .389 over his last 5 games. Mike Clevinger and his comPadres stymied the Phillies last night, but Segura managed one of the 5 hits in that game for the Phillies and stole another bag. I’ll roll the dice with him today against Blake Snell in Snell’s first game of the year.
Evan Longoria, 3B: (DK) $4,000 – “WAIT…WHAT? YOU’RE RECOMMENDING A GUY WITH 0 HR, 2 RBI, AND A .278 SLG%?!” Oh my. It looks like Mr. Al Capps has returned from Grey’s spring draft recaps (reCapps?). Yes, Al, (can I call you Al? No? Ok.) I am recommending Mr. Evan Longoria. Do I know that Josh Donaldson has been scorching hot over the last 5 games (DK: $4,000)? Of course I do, Mr. Capps. But, please, hear me out. Longoria just returned from a finger injury, (no, really), and is facing a LHP in Kyle Freeland on the road (yes, that means in Colorado). The Giants gave Longoria the night off last night to rest his…finger…so I’ll play him today. He’s ranked ahead of Jose Ramirez on Hittertron at 24.3, has a career average 20 points higher against lefties, and he’s facing Kyle Freeland who checks in at 5th in XHR at 7.5 on statcast. I wouldn’t fault you for zigging to Donaldson at the same price today, but I’m zagging to Longoria at Coors.
Trea Turner, SS: (DK) $5,900 – Here is the big chalk hitter for the day vs. Zach Davies and the Diamondbacks at home. Trea Turner is the top MI available on Hittertron (33.0) and comes in at 4th overall for hitters. I had started to do a write up for Thairo Estrada and a Giants stack today, but DraftKings only has Estrada eligible at 2B, so I’m in on Turner instead. There’s not much to say about this one, other than if you want a guy with the potential to steal a few bases, to add in a home run (like he did last night), and earn some Treats, set him and forget him here.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF: (DK) $3,500 – LouGuJu is another player that should benefit from facing an LHP at home today. Although his full season numbers don’t exactly jump off the page, Lourdes has been hitting .298 at Rogers Centre, (Skydome for all of you old folks out there), and has notched a base knock in his last 3 games. He sat Monday in favor of the left handed Raimel Tapia, but should be a safe start against Marco Gonzales today.
Rafael Ortega, OF: (DK) $2,600 – Directly below Gurriel on the Hittertron at the 68th spot (overall) today is another low priced play to fill out your squad if you decide to go with a couple of big arms and some big salaries from above. Sure, Ortega celebrated his 31st birthday on Sunday, so he’s more old grizzly than cub, but his playing time has seen an increase because of Seiya Suzuki’s Covid hiatus. Even with Suzuki’s return last night, Ortega should still see consistent playing time as the Cubs placed Jason Heyward on the IR Tuesday night (with an ‘undesignated injury’). As always with these lower priced guys, double check the lineup before game time but Ortega is one of those sneaky cheap plays that may actually be leading off against Mitch Keller at home today.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The highest chance for showers seems to be in Cleveland (35%). There’s a 20% chance of rain in Toronto too, but the dome should be closed up for that one anyway.
Doing Lines In Vegas
A lot of the pitching matchups seem to favor one side today, so you can’t really go wrong with the aces. The closest I’d get to an under would be Atlanta (Fried) at Milwaukee (Burnes) at 6.5. Ohtani vs. Dunning in Texas was O/U 8 as of last night too.
One heavy underdog play today would be Arizona (Davies) at LA (Buehler) at +230 (again, as of last night). Play that one at your own risk, though!