Allow Myself to Introduce… Myself.
Hey everyone, I’m Dawn and I’ll be chatting with you about the main MLB slates on Fridays. Let’s get to it!
One of my favorite DFS strategies is to analyze a slate and figure out a low-rostered stack that could provide a huge return in a GPP. For today’s main slate, that “Sneak Attack Stack” (patent pending) is the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates face off against the Cardinal’s Jake Woodford. Woodford currently has an ERA around 9.00, which is bound to come down, however, his xFIP* is still at 4.97! The Pirate bats have been trending and the warm weather in St. Louis gives them a bump. Specifically, I’m looking at Bryan Reynolds as my top bat and Ji Hwan Bae ($3,800) as a nice way to save some cash and take advantage of this sneaky stack.
*xFip you say? Expected (FIP) Fielding independent pitching
One of my favorite stats! From fangraphs.com:
“Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) has displayed an ability to accurately measure a pitcher’s true skill. FanGraphs describes FIP succinctly as “a measurement of a pitcher’s performance that strips out the role of defense, luck, and sequencing, making it a more stable indicator of how a pitcher actually performed over a given period of time than a runs allowed based statistic that would be highly dependent on the quality of defense played behind him…”
I like to find high/low ERA’s and compare them to FIP/xFIP to see if someone has been simply lucky/unlucky and try to find some leverage with regards to hitters/pitchers.
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Other stacks I’m focusing on for today’s Main Slate:
- BAL, STL, NYY, TB
Some of the Players I’ll be targeting tonight:
SP: NYY – Nestor Cortes $9,500 – NYY won’t get fooled again, MIN!
SP: ATL – Charlie Morton $9,100 – More below, but ATL should be good for a win tonight.
SP: HOU – Luis Garcia $8,600 – Maybe the top play of the night against a very bad offense.
C: BAL – Adley Rutschman $5,200 – Cannot seem to be stopped.
1B: PIT – Ji-Man Choi $2,300 – Cheap pivot at 1B in a sneaky Pirates stack.
3B: BAL – Gunnar Henderson $3,900 – If you can’t fit Rutschman, Gunnar won’t do you wrong.
3B: PIT – Ke’Bryan Hayes $3,300 – He and Bae should both be good for a steal tonight.
OF: PIT – Bryan Reynolds $5,900 – Speaking of unstoppable…
Oh, one more thing…
ATL is going up against Brady Singer, who hasn’t been great against Atlanta and their bats are hot right now.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No worries about rain tonight so I’m only happy when it’s complicated #garbage
Doing Lines In Vegas
MIL ML +140
