Hi, it’s Kieffer here, bringing you my DFS picks for the main evening slate on Wednesday, April 20th, 2022. If you play on FanDuel, it is an 11-game slate starting at 6:40 p.m. Eastern. This article will be primarily focused on the FanDuel slate, so if you play on DraftKings I encourage you to sign up for the DFS tools to help you make the best decisions for your lineups on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo. Carlos Rodon is the top-priced pitcher on FanDuel ($10,800), will he perform up to the salary?
Rodon projects as one of the top values on the slate. The projections give Rodon the highest likelihood of having a quality start and the highest likelihood of earning a win. So far on the season, Rodon is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA, 2.10 xFIP, and a 25.2% strikeout percentage over the course of 12 innings pitched.
The only thing that gives some pause is that the Mets have a strikeout rate of just 18.7% and are No. 4 in runs scored so far this season (51 runs). He has the highest upside projection on the slate and would be my top option in GPPs due to his high upside. He is also viable in cash games because of his high likelihood of collecting a quality start along with a win relative to the other options.
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Jordan Lyles, SP: $6,000 – Jordan Lyles projects as the top value play on the slate. On FanDuel, where we play just one pitcher, we generally are punting at pitcher as a GPP strategy in exchange for high dollar stacks. It is a risky strategy that pays off handsomely when the stars align (they do not typically align). The DFSBot has Lyles as the third most likely to have a quality start.
Lyles comes into the game 0-1 with a 5.23 ERA, 4.87 xFIP, and a 12.8% strikeout rate. Oakland is No. 8 in strikeout rate (25.2%), and No. 24 in walk rate (7.6%), so he should get a strikeout boost relative to his performance this season.
Yan Gomes, C/1B: $2,000 – If looking for a punt play in the C/1B slot, Yan Gomes projects better than most players on the slate in terms of dollars per fantasy point. The Chicago Cubs are facing Drew Rasmussen, who is expected to start for Tampa Bay. Rasmussen, in his two starts this year is 0-1 with a 5.00 ERA, a 4.63 xFIP, and a 13.5% strikeout rate. His career xFIP is 3.71, so while he is not off to a great start this season so far, it’s likely variance. The DFSBot gives Gomes a median projection of 9.6 FanDuel points, which is a great value on a $2,000 salary.
Jared Walsh, C/1B: $3,400 – Jared Walsh and the Los Angeles Angels face Jake Odorizzi and the Houston Astros. Odorizzi is off to a 0-1 start and a 6.48 ERA and a 5.95 xFIP. Over the course of his career, Orodizzi has a 4.48 xFIP and allows 1.22 HR/9. Walsh has a .400 wOBA and .230 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the last two seasons. The DFSBot projects Walsh for 11.9 FanDuel points as a median projection. Additionally, he is the No. 33 player overall in upside projection from the DFSBot too.
Ketel Marte, 2B: $2,900 – Ketel Marte faces Erick Fedde tonight. While Fedde is off to a good start, 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA, he has a career xFIP of 4.46 and allows 1.55 HR/9. Typically Fedde is a pitcher we want to target in DFS. Marte has a median projection of 12.2 FanDuel points (No. 3 among 2Bs) and has the fifth-highest probability of hitting a home run among second basemen on the slate.
Gio Urshela, 3B: $2,700 – Gio Urshela has a median projection of 10.5 FanDuel points, which is tied for No. 9 with Nolan Arenado (who is much more expensive). The Kansas City Royals will be starting Daniel Lynch, who is 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA with a 3.91 xFIP. Urshela is projected to hit in the middle of the order and over the last two seasons has a .320 wOBA and .170 ISO the last two seasons against left-handed pitching.
Bo Bichette, SS: $3,300 – Bo Bichette will take on Nick Pivetta and the Boston Red Sox tonight. Pivetta is 0-2 with a 9.39 ERA and a 5.10 xFIP so far this season. Over the course of his career, Pivetta has an xFIP of 4.11 and allows 1.58 HR/9. Pivetta is someone at times I like to target in DFS. According to the DFSBot, Bichette’s 13.0 point median projection is No. 1 among shortstops on the slate, yet he is just the seventh most expensive shortstop on the slate.
Randy Arozarena, OF: $2,800 – Randy Arozarena will be facing Marcus Stroman tonight. Stroman is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA and a 4.09 xFIP to start the season. Stroman has a 3.59 xFIP over the course of his career, so some positive regression will come at some point. That said, Arozarena projects well against him. The DFSBot projects him for the 2nd most FanDuel points on the slate among outfielders yet is $1500 less than the outfielder that is No. 1.
Kyle Garlick, OF: $2,000 – Kyle Garlick is min. priced yet has a median projection of 10.9 FanDuel points yet is minimum priced. There isn’t much more analysis needed. In 64 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, Garlick has a .340 wOBA, and .300 ISO. He should bat in the middle of the order. Daniel Lynch is a promising prospect, but he has a career of 45.8% hard-hit percentage in the major leagues. This is a good spot for Garlick and the rest of the Twins to put up some runs.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Detroit and Chicago have some weather concerns, especially Chicago. Have pivots for all teams affected in case weather is an issue: New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs, Tampa Bay Rays.
Doing Lines In Vegas
I like the Red Sox (+120) over the Blue Jays
