The title says it all. Kyle Hendricks is an immediate fade against this Padres lineup. It is a getaway day, so there may be some guys resting. Kyle Hendricks has given up 5 runs in each of his first two starts against the Rangers and Dodgers. Those are some potent offenses, but the Padres rank in the top 10 in average, SLG, and OPS. Expect them to get to Hendricks early on. This is a pre-cursor to a Padres stack for the 6:40pm Wednesday slate. Our Streamonator tool has Kyle Hendricks among the worst in the 6:40pm slate in potential ER, HR, K/9. Padres will put the ball in play often. You’ll see that we’ve got some inexpensive options at the plate that can come through big for us, even if some guys get a day off. Here we go.
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Marcus Stroman, SP: $9,600 – Stroman is the second most expensive pitcher in the slate, and that is not a problem. The Marlins are among the worst teams in the league in just about every category you can think of. Stroman has yet to surrender a run this season while facing the potent offenses of the Astros and Blue Jays. He’s off to a great start, and there’s not much reason to believe he’ll disappoint against the Marlins.
Hunter Brown, SP: $7,900 – I had to give you another SP here, since we’re spending a decent chunk of money on Padres position players. The pitching in this slate is very top heavy, but Hunter Brown aka mini-Verlander has a chance to get back on track in 2024 against the Royals. The Rangers did a number on him in his last start by getting 5 runs in 3 innings. Stremonator has Brown as the 5th best option in this slate, and the least likely to give up the long ball. So, we’re going to expect him to keep the ball in the park and runs off the board against the Royals.
Jared Walsh, 1B: $3,800 – Another non-Padres player. I know, I said we’re stacking them, but I will pass on Cronenworth due to personal bias. Now, let’s talk about value. Jared Walsh has been turning back the clock to his All-Star form after an injury-filled 2023 season. He’s averaging 7.8 fppg and is projected to have the 4th highest odds of hitting a home run against the A’s per our Hittertron tool. We spent a decent bit on pitching, so we have to recoup some here.
Xander Bogaerts, 2B: $4,600 – Xander is not a flashy pick. He seems to silently accumulate stats throughout the season, and when it’s over, you’re left scratching your head. Another Padres player off to a slow start by his own standards, but he had a home run on Monday and maybe this is the start of him breaking out in the 2024 season. We’re going to try to capture lightning in a bottle with him and the rest of the Padres.
Manny Machado, 3B: $4,600 – Love him or hate him, Manny Machado can play some baseball. His price tag doesn’t necessarily warrant his production to this point, but we’re so anti-Hendricks that he’s our 3B. He has 2 homers in this young season, so the pop is still there, and we know he’s going to get some opportunities to drive in runs.
Ha-Seong Kim, SS: $4,000 – Kim is averaging 7.6 fppg on DraftKings this season. He’s only hitting .208 with 1 home run. We aren’t expecting a home run from him, but we can dream, right? He’s a source for stolen bases, and Hendricks doesn’t throw particularly hard. A couple of hits, a steal, and a run scored and that is more than enough output from a SS at $4,000.
Fernando Tatis Jr, OF: $5,800 – Tatis Jr. comes with a high price tag, but he sets the table for this Padres lineup. Tatis accumulates stats in bunches, and he had a 20-point performance on Monday. Even if he doesn’t hit a home run, he can rack up points with some steals like Kim. I typically don’t love paying big money for a hitter, but Tatis is the root of our stack.
Jackson Merrill, OF: $2,900 – Here’s another value play. Merrill has been a staple at the bottom of the Padres order since making the Opening Day roster. Another guy that we’ll cross our fingers and hope he hits one over the fence, but he can make an impact in other ways. Remember, our focus is to be against Kyle Hendricks here, so Merrill can get on base and set the table for the top of the order, we can be looking at some big points from our lineup.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
As of 10:45pm on Tuesday 4/9, we do not see any weather-related issues or rainouts. Had entirely too many rainouts last week and picked a good bit of players from those games. That won’t happen again. This week’s rainout would be the Padres deciding to rest some of their stars before the off day.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The Over/Under on the Padres and Cubs game is 8. Vegas isn’t usually wrong, so maybe it’s a nice 7-1 win for the Padres. I have little faith in Seth Lugo against the Astros and the Astros are calling up a prospect to start. There will be some strong winds blowing in most of the game but can still see this one hitting the over.
I see Arrighetti starting for the Astros tonight, not brown.