What are some general maxims or adages you’ve followed in your life that have benefitted you? “Actions speak louder than words.” Maybe if you’re strangling a mime (editor’s note: do NOT do this, Razzball doesn’t condone strangling, though Lord knows the mime likely deserves it). “If at first, you don’t succeed, try again.” But what if I was trying to fail? “Don’t cut off your nose to spite your face.” Everything has an origin, and that one sounds like some dark ish, man. Here’s one that’s never failed me: “If you can’t decide which pitcher goes, choose the one facing multiple Castros.” Especially when there’s a Willi and a Harold involved.
NYY ace Gerrit Cole (FD $10,800, but third-highest on FD/DK $10,900, top pitcher) has only had one outing since April where he’s struck out fewer than nine batters, and he’s Streamonator’s top pick for the day with a 68% chance for a win (no other starter tops 48% per Streamonator). Cole has pitched to a 3.12 ERA, which is pretty darned good, but his xERA is even better at 2.68, and his xwOBA is .259. As luck would have it, Cole gets to welcome the Tigers to Yankee Stadium. Jonathan Schoop has finally fogged up the mirror under his nose, and Spencer Torkelson has hit .300/.391 over the last week (with no power, though), but otherwise, Cole is looking at a collective Detroit OF that would struggle to start over any other OF in MLB, and a lineup with the top two spots filled by Castros. Castri? This has the makings of a bug-meet-windshield situation, and the Motown crew isn’t the one driving the car.
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Nathan Eovaldi, SP: $8,800 (9th)/DK $8,000 (10th) – Streamonator loves Eovaldi today. It gives him the 2nd-highest win percentage and he’s riding high after a CG victory (2 ER) last time out. Eovaldi has produced a QS in half of his starts so far, which is no small feat in this age of five-and-dive starters. He throws 97 mph, has a 30% CSW, and is facing the worst-OPS-in-MLB-vs-RHPs Oakland Athletics in a stadium near the bottom in park factors. Giddyup. I almost talked myself into making Eovaldi the lead.
Victor Caratini C: FD $2,100/DK $3,000 – With Omar Narvaez hitting the COVID-IL yesterday, Caratini steps into more ABs and it’s good timing, as Victor has three HRs in his last seven days. There are easier pitchers to face than Joe Musgrove, but the Victory Carrot is red-hot and he looks like a solid bet to be in the lineup today, which is always a coin-flip with catchers anyway.
Pete Alonso, 1B: FD $4,000/DK $5,300 – Dodgers lefty Tyler Anderson has had a terrific year so far, but Alonso’s power goes up vs lefties (has half as many HRs vs lefties in about 1/4 the ABs than he does vs RHPs) and he absolutely loves hitting in Dodgers Stadium, where he has a career 1.363 OPS. That’s against Dodgers pitching, which is, you know, usually pretty good.
Marcus Semien, 2B: FD $3,000/DK $4,700 – Sure, you could use the guy who just hit three home runs in Coors on Wednesday (Brendan Rodgers), but Coors is low-hanging fruit, so how about Semien’s 8 runs, 2 HRs, 8 RBI, and 2 SBs the last seven days? Semien’s had a rough year, for sure, but he’s really coming on and the price hasn’t caught up yet. There’s still profit to be made with him.
Matt Carpenter, 3B: FD $2,500/DK $3,300 – I really wanted to make a pun about carpentry here…but nothing woodwork. Anyway, back to baseball. Carpenter has had a meager 17 AB try-out for the Yankees this year, but so far he’s nailing it, bopping three HRs already. He’s facing a righty today and hit atop the Yankee lineup vs Ohtani yesterday (whom he HR’d off of). Whether he’s in front of Judge and Stanton or knocking them in from the 5- or 6-hole, he’s a great play right now.
Orlando Arcia, SS: FD $2,600/DK $2,000 (but OF-only) – Risky pick here and you’ll have to check the lineup close to game time, but if the Braves play him in Coors, Arcia is 7-16 (.438 AVG) with a big fly lifetime against Rockie hurler Chad Kuhl. Arcia gives you some cheap Coors goodness if he’s in the lineup. If you go Cole, you’ll need to save some bucks in a few places, and this price looks about right. If he’s not in the lineup, there’s nothing wrong with another cheap Coors shortstop in Jose Iglesias (FD $2,700/DK $4,000) who has 10 hits and a .440+ OBP the last seven days…
Starling Marte, OF: FD$3,900/DK $5,000 – Marte is Hittertron’s 2nd-highest-rated non-Coors OF (because Aaron Judge exists) during this slate of games, and it’s easy to see why. The past seven days Marte has scored eight times, hit two HRs, knocked in seven runs, stolen a bag, and slugged .731. It’s a Marte Par-tay, and he’s the Star of the show. If you don’t like my star pun, you’re probably just too Sirius.
Adolis Garcia, OF: FD $3,400/DK $4,000 – Many love Seattle’s Logan Gilbert, and rightfully so, but Garcia is hitting .321 with two HRs, 2 SBs and 6 RBI the last seven days. Garcia’s xSLG vs fastballs is .528, and Gilbert throws fastballs 55% of the time. I xPect Adolis to get a hold of one tonight. And if he doesn’t get a good fastball from Gilbert, Garcia’s actual SLG vs. offspeed pitches this year is .606. Looks like Adolis has all pitch types covered so I don’t see how this call could possibly go wrong. (jinx!)
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Ballpark Weather’s substack (and @BallparkWeather) says there are no rain/weather issues to impact today’s game, so I’m crossing my fingers (metaphorically, otherwise I couldn’t type right now) that this is accurate data.
Doing Lines In Vegas
On DraftKings, Brendan Rodgers is +750 to hit a HR today. He just hit three bombs on Wednesday and has an OPS 220 points higher vs LHPs than he does RHPs…and is facing Braves lefty Max Fried. Seems like a pretty reasonable roll of the dice here.