Sometimes, less is more. My recent articles have been lengthy and if you can check out some of the teaching points in those, you will likely benefit and understand today’s thoughts a bit better.
The Cardinals get to face B(r)ad Keller whose one positive data point is his high ground ball rate. San Diego and Arizona will be playing in the open air in Phoenix which often leads to higher scoring environments. The Dodgers and Braves face off in what should be a fun place to sit in the bleachers and hunt HRs. The A’s, World Series hopefuls, get to face Ryan Weathers and carry very cheap prices that look interesting to stack.
I looked into the teams that are displaying good batted ball data and who have good plate discipline and it seems most sensible to stack players from ARI, SD, LAD, ATL, and TEX today. All of those stacks will be high priced, so I would also look to find a cheaper 3 man stack to pair with a 4-5 man stack from one of these spots.
As for pitching, there are plenty to choose from. Sonny Gray (2.16 SIERA), Tanner Bibee (3.65 SIERA), George Kirby (2.86 SIERA), Tanner Houck (2.62 SIERA), and JP Sears (4.85 SIERA) can be rostered up and down the pricing scale. Predictions can always be made and some are better than others, but often it’s good practice to choose good pitchers in good spots who are not as highly owned and might be at different price points than the highly owned pitchers. I imagine Gray and Houck/Kirby will be highly owned on this slate.
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George Kirby, SP: $7,800 – Fangraphs just came out with an article today studying Kirby’s unusually good command. He recently added velo and has been striking more batters out. We usually don’t target HOU for K’s, but Kirby’s command is at least worth the price, especially against a pitcher in Blanco who is very beatable.
Sonny Gray, SP: $10,100 – It is telling that I initially looked at Sonny’s ERA and thought, “He must be having some babip luck.” Oh no. His babip is in line with expectations, but his K/BB rate is higher than it’s ever been in his career. He likely will not keep this up, but facing the White Sox in his home ballpark is a great spot to target for DFS, and I like the name Sonny.
Gabriel Moreno, C: $3,600 – Moreno is one of the players on the Diamondbacks whose recent data has me excited to roster them. His price is right AND he had some dental work on Wednesday so he’s ready to show off that winning smile!
Freddie Freeman, 1B: $5,600 – More like dreamin’, am I right? Freddie is facing his old teammate, old being the operative word. Morton is gonna have his work cut out for him and I’m not sure if old man strength will win this bout. Freeman is cheap for his batting position in this dominant offense.
Gavin Lux, 2B: $3,000 – If the Dodgers are doing well, Lux will factor in for some DFS points. He has a decent hit tool and can steal a base. I like his price point on today’s slate.
Max Muncy, 3B: $4,500 – Muncy’s hard hit data is almost tops in the class of 3B and he is on the Dodgers, yet his price remains super low. He doesn’t hit for average, but I’m not looking for singles on a slate this deep.
Mookie Betts, SS: $6,600 – duh…highest priced player at his position. Fit him in or fit in another high priced SS. The opportunity cost at the position is just too high. The SSs this year are awesome!
Andy Pages, OF: $3,600 – His price keeps climbing, but the man who produces every day is still too cheap. Go look at his game log and tell me you don’t agree.
Tyler Nevin, OF: $2,600 – You are going to need someone cheap on this slate and Nevin is it for me. He gets to face Ryan Weathers and will probably hit at the top of the order. His hard hit data is good and his K rate is low. He’s not the HR hitter he has been lately but he can hit the gaps and should score some runs.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Nothing too concerning as far as weather goes. The roof is supposed to be open in Arizona and it’s in the 80s there. The wind is blowing out at Dodger Stadium.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The 9 run total in Kansas City stands out to me. They play in a park that isn’t conducive to HRs and both pitchers are GB specialists. I could see that one playing at or below the total pretty easily, unless one of the starting pitchers just blows it up.
