How hot is Jarren Duran (OF, $2,800) right now? Two hits last night make seven in his last two games as he gets acclimated to the leadoff spot. You could even take breakout hitter Ezequiel Duran from the same game to get Duran/Duran! I’m only half-joking about the second part. Wild Boys!
We have a big 11-game DraftKings slate locking at 7:05 tonight, so let’s get to it:
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The Core (Players who will appear in most of my lineups):
Pablo Lopez, P: $10,100 – Pablo’s been steadily improving after a rough start to the season. He gets the Royals, MLB’s worst offense against right handed pitching. Easy game.
Justin Steele, P: $10,300 – Guess who gets the game’s worst offense against lefties? It’s Steele, and he’s been super-sharp over his last few starts.
Bobby Miller, P: $8,300 – We’ve seen how electric this guy can be. Against a bottom-third offense in terrific pitching weather, he could absolutely smash that $8,300 salary. One caveat is that Miller is prone to command issues and can blow up. If it looks like his ownership is getting steamed, he goes right into the Fades column for me.
Ozzie Albies, 2B: $5,700 – Cal Quantrill and his awful 5.53 xFIP this season earned him a month in the minors. His first start back was more of the same. At their prices it’s going to be tough to get a full Braves stack, and against a very good Guardians’ bullpen I’m not sure we want one anyway. I think one-offs are the way to go, and the scorching Albies is my favorite.
Amed Rosario, SS: $3,800 – With multiple hits in four of his last five games, Rosario has been one of the hottest hitters in the league. His price tag hasn’t caught up to his current production.
Jose Ramirez, 3B: $5,800 – He’s been kind of cold, but he’s popping on our DFSBot, so he has my attention. Maybe he goes off tonight at low ownership against Mike Soroka and a vulnerable Rangers’ pen.
Edouard Julien, 2B: $3,000 / Alex Kirilloff, 1B: $2,700 / Max Kepler, OF: $2,800 – And on, and on. It will be tough not to use some Twins for value tonight. They carry the second-highest team total of the night, and since we want to prioritize pitching their dirt-cheap prices are a godsend.
Colton Cowser, OF: $2,000 – You know the drill – play the hot shot rookies at bargain prices before the DFS-only types catch on. Here’s Grey’s fantasy if you need more incentive.
The Fades (Highly-owned players I will mostly avoid):
Graham Ashcraft, P: $6,100 – You might be considering paying down for Ashcraft after he ripped the Padres a new one last time out. His slider was great, but his fastball command continues to be poor, and he’ll be pitching against a team that makes good contact in a hitter’s park on a hot night. Pass.
Austin Slater, OF: $3,100 – He’ll bat leadoff with the platoon advantage against the venerable Tommy Milone, so Slater’s a decent cash game play. Thing is, if I’m going to play a guy with mediocre power, I want him in a hot weather game. Slater carries the additional risk that he’s often pinch hit for when the bullpen comes in.
The Pivots (low-owned plays I’ll take a chance on):
Alex Cobb, P: $8,600 – Cobb looked good in his first start off of the IL. Perhaps more importantly, while many guys are pitching in hot, muggy weather, Cobb gets a 57 degree Pacific evening. Cobb isn’t a prolific strikeout guy, but he’ll give you a thirty-something DK point score a few times a year. Don’t worry about his ownership because nobody ever plays him.
Justin Turner, 1B: $3,800 – and the Red Sox stack. If you think the Twins stack will be too popular, have a look at these guys. They’re affordable, they get good hitting weather, and they get one of the weakest bullpens on the slate in the Rangers. Turner himself is enjoying a four-game hit streak with two home runs in that span.
Jeimer Candelario, 3B: $3,700 – Speaking of hot, he rode a 10-game hitting streak into last night. Ashcraft had better have his slider going, because Jeimer hits his other pitch – the cutter – quite well (.211 ISO).
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
A chance of rain in the Blue Jays / White Sox game. Good hitting conditions in New York, Washington, Boston and Cleveland.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The Astros are beating up everyone these days and I don’t think Chase Anderson and the Rockies will stop them. Give me Houston on the run line (-1.5).
I like the Braves/Guardians game to go off offensively, so I’ll take the over on that 9.5 total.
Good luck, everyone! I’ll update in the afternoon and I’ll see you next Wednesday!
