I love Streamonator. I won’t rub WD-40 all over myself in an effort to woo it or anything, but I’m not saying I didn’t buy a few gallons of it from Costco just in case, either. Most of the time, if Streamonator says it, I do it. But tonight? There must’ve been a glitch, because it’s got Brandon Woodruff (FD $10,300/DK $10,000) as the 19th rated pitcher going, and I’m all over Woody against the slumping (Red) Sox.
Woodruff is the 12th best SP over the last 30 days according to Razzball’s Player Rater, going 2.20/1.05 with a 39:9 K:BB. His BABIP over that same time is .318, which is the 2nd highest of anybody in the top-30 over that same period; that tells me that he should probably be getting even better results than he’s had. Outside of a five-walk clunker two outings ago, he hasn’t had a CSW% of less than 30% since May, and he hasn’t given up a HR since May either. Boston is 24th in MLB in team OPS the last 15 days, and they’re running into a guy who is top-12 in MLB in the following categories: K%, CSW%, FB velo, SwStr%, HC%, xERA, xwOBA, and…you get the point. Woodruff is great, terrific, fantastic, and the Red Sox have gone 4-15 in their last 19 games prior to this writing. I don’t care if it’s in Fenway, and I don’t care that Streamonator dookies on this start–I’m taking a bonafide stud in Woodruff and rolling him out there today.
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Alek Manoah, SP: FD $10,200/DK $9,400 – Gerritt Cole vs KC is Streamonator’s top pick today, but I’m going to take the price discount from Cole and go with Manoah hosting Detroit. I do think Detroit is better than KC, especially post-Benintendi KC, but over the last 30 days, Manoah is out-pitching Cole’s ratios (though Cole still has him on Ks by a not-negligible number). Detroit is third-from-last in MLB in team OPS and has the 7th most strikeouts over the last 15 days, so expect a QS, a W, and good Ks and ratios here.
Gary Sanchez, C: FD $2,300/DK $3,300 – El Gary The Kraken is 6-for-20 career vs. Blake Snell, but five of those six hits have left the yard. A glass-half-full guy would say, “If Gary hits the ball vs Blake, it’s likely gonna be a bomb.” A glass-half-empty guy would say, “Stats like this are stupid, and if you don’t believe me, let me tell you about the guy who drowned in a river with an average depth of two feet.” Man, the glass-half-empty guy sure made things dark up in here.
Jake Lamb, 1B: FD $2,600/No DK – Lamb is playing nearly every day, really only sitting against lefties, and tonight he’s in Coors vs the righty Chad Kuhl. This is strictly a “get some skin in the Coors game” call; Lamb has been b-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-d lately, but cheap Coors chances are gambles I want to take.
Jose Altuve, 2B: FD $4,000/DK $5,200 – Robbie Ray’s pitch-mix change has helped turn his season around so that it looks more like the success he found last year, but Altuve’s 11-for-19 career line vs. Ray (three doubles, one triple, two homers, more walks than Ks) isn’t interested in 2021 Robbie Ray nostalgia. He is, however, interested in how Robbie Ray physically gets into and out of baseball pants. Even the skinny-jeans-hipsters think “You’ve gone a little far with this.”
Matt Chapman, 3B: FD $3,400//DK $4,400 – You could also go with Jeimer Candelario here, as both of these hot-hitting 3B are top-10 overall on the Player Rater the last seven days. The differentiating factor for me is that Candy has to face Manoah, and Chat Mapman has to face Bryan Garcia, who looks to be an opener for the Motor City Kitties. What’s he opening? His own can of whup-azz, most likely.
Tim Anderson, SS: FD $3,900/DK $5,500 – Anderson hasn’t been lighting the world on fire, as he’s only got four XBHs in July. However, over his last 20 games, he’s only gone hitless five times, while getting multiple hits six times. He’s still hitting, getting on base, and scoring runs; he’s just not hitting the ball in the air enough, as his LD% and FB% have dropped. When that regulates, the XBH will come.
Tyler O’Neill, OF: FD $2,900/DK $4,200 – A Hittertron call today, it’s got TON ranked 6th overall. That’s including a Dodgers/Rockies game in Coors taking up four of the five spots in front of him, and Ronald Acuna Jr taking up the other. TON is facing Anibal Sanchez, whom I can only assume a) is still cheeks and b) tried to send a virus to Hittertron, which is why Hittertron wants TON in this matchup so badly.
Steven Kwan, OF: FD $3,200/DK $4,200 – Kwan has the most hits in MLB over the last seven days with 14 hits, and he’s even helped his owners by chipping in a HR (unexpected) and a pair of bags (somewhat expected). You’re really rostering him planning for him to get on base at least twice, score at least once, and then if he can add from there, you’re cooking with gas.
Hunter Renfroe, OF: FD $3,700/DK $4,800 – You think I’m missing out on this blazing streak? Four homers and 10 RBI in the last week, and he gets to go to Fenway, stare down the Green Monster, and have only Brayan Bello’s 10.50 ERA staring back at him? And Bello’s awful performance so far doesn’t even include giving up a homer? I’m Hunt-ing matchups like this.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
My trusted source, @BallparkWeather, says that the Dodgers @ Rockies game has a moderate chance of delay but low risk of postponement. That would obviously be an issue for those who bang the Coors Field drum if there’s a postponement, but this says low chance, so full speed ahead with the schedule otherwise.
Doing Lines In Vegas
I’m going to back my Woodruff play all the way today, and take Milwaukee run line -1.5 at +100 here, as I think Milwaukee continues to pound Bello and Woodruff shuts down Boston.
