Whenever I review a slate and find the makings of a straightforward slate, my mind instantly starts looking for the holes. Can the advanced stats, the matchup charts, and Vegas all be wrong somewhere, and if so, is it worth it to take the risk? I am usually very grateful for this way of thinking, as it helps me to take calculated risks. I am not sure what I will do tonight yet (can I really stack the Rockies outside of Coors?), but I can very easily break down the best options on the slate for you.
LAD gets to play at home. Usuall,y it doesn’t matter much who they face, but in this case, they get Jeffrey Springs, whose stuff has not looked good at all this year. He is a lefty, and LAD are missing two of their best lefty bats, but I am not concerned with Springs. CHC have been a great offense to target, and they get the Marlins (one of the worst bullpens in the league) and one of the worst SPs in Bellozo. It should be a good day for Cubs bats. SD, NYM, and TEX are the next tier of offenses to target. They have easy enough matchups and are all capable teams. TEX has not quite shown that they are capable, but the matchup vs. Kyle Freeland and the Rockies bullpen is good comparatively today. Finally, there is ATL facing Mike Soroka. I have no idea what to expect from Soroka except that he will not pitch long and the WAS bullpen is not great.
When selecting a stack of players to use, ownership is one of the main decision points. CHC will be highly owned. ATL likely will too. Those are fine options, but if you do roster them, make sure to include players in the 7-9 lineup positions as well. I want to focus on the New York Mets tonight and the LA Dodgers. NYM are facing Mitch Keller, who is a fine pitcher with a mid 4s ERA that often makes it 6 IP. We would be hoping for a shorter leash if rostering Mets because the PIT bullpen has been heavily taxed recently and I want the Mets to get into that bullpen to have the chance to hit a ceiling score.
There are so many ways to win tonight, and they are very easy to deduce. Follow these guidelines, strive for low ownership, and hope to get a bit lucky! I will be hanging out at the top of the leaderboards. See you there!
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Dylan Cease, SP: $8,300 – The highest owned pitcher tonight should be Cease. He is an elite K pitcher facing the worst K% team. Cease is coming off of a great game (ended his night with a cramped forearm) and should be poised to continue delighting fantasy owners. Can you fade him?
Spencer Schwellenbach, SP: $8,200 – I want Schwelly at this price. He put up a 40 point game earlier this year vs. MIA and although he has not approached that lately, a huge score is within the realm of possibility here. There are not a ton of high upside options tonight, so I want the guy with the highest ceiling (high DK score on the season for this slate) and a great floor.
Will Smith, C: $4,600 – There is only one catcher who I would like to own more than Will Smith this year, and that’s Cal Raleigh. Smith matches or surpasses Raleigh in nearly every advanced stats hitting category except pure power which Smith is still pretty good at. This is a great play tonight if you can afford it.
Matt Olson, 1B: $4,600 – The first thought here is that there are a lot of good 1B whom you can roster and feel good. I like to spend down on the position because of that reality, and this feels like a nice price point for one of the best options in a great matchup.
Brett Baty, 2B: $3,000 – Baty has been cycling between AAA and the majors this year, but has recently started hitting the ball extremely hard, and the results might get him into the lineup vs. RHPs more often, hopefully tonight. You need some savings, and this is a good option.
Austin Riley, 3B: $5,000 – The man has been hitting the ball hard all year, and he is a good option any day the Braves face a beatable SP. He stands out in particular today because of the lack of compelling options at 3B. You could spend down, but I will be spending up at this position with a lot of power potential.
Francisco Lindor, SS: $5,300 – One of the best SS in the game gets a nice matchup and the lack of other options has me wanting to trust Lindor. I will have to save salary somewhere, but at a position that usually produces high scores, I want to give myself a chance to compete.
Juan Soto, OF: $5,200 – Simple. He is not yet priced high enough for the player he is and the potential he has on any given slate. I’m looking forward to a 5-5 game tonight.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF: $3,200 – I love playing the Diamondbacks vs a lefty, but Robbie Ray is not the lefty I want to try a full stack against. Instead, I will pick a few ARI players to roster in hopes I can grab a significant performance from one of them. It could be suarez or Ketel Marte or the C Moreno, but I like saving money at the OF position and Gurriel is the perfect player who often bats in the top 4 vs. a lefty and has produced some good advanced stats that should lead to more production this season than his current .215 avg suggests.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There is nothing too concerning weather wise, which is good. If you are interested in playing Mets or rolling with Kodai Senga you may want to check the status of that game before lineups lock. There is rain expected in the area that could start during the game and last through till the end. The rain is light and people can play baseball in it, but ya never know.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Vegas is so predictable. You go with high hopes and leave with a dose of reality. There is nothing out of the ordinary with the Vegas lines today. In fact, my 6 teams to target for offense are the 6 teams with the highest Vegas totals today; LAD, CHC, TEX, ATL, NYM, and SD. The only other team with a significant implied team total is TOR. Either I hunt for something totally off the board tonight (COL?) or I am sticking with these options.
