It’s been a whirlwind of a year so far and now we’ve reached the final four when it comes to my Tuesday DFS suggestions. We had a nice big cash last week, and are hoping to take you home with five straight double-up winners. As we get close to the end here you have to look for match-ups where teams are starting to think about the off-season going up against teams still with something to fight for. I’m not saying players give up on losing teams, but I will say the dynamic changes especially when it comes to putting out top-notch lineups and maximizing elite bullpen usage. It’s often a good thing to fade those teams where the golf course is beckoning.
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main evening slate on Tuesday, August 22nd, 2023. If you play on DraftKings, it is an 11-game slate starting at 6:05 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you play on Fanduel I encourage you to sign up for the DFS tools to help you make the best decisions for your lineups on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo.
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Javier Assad, SP: $6,500. Yes, I know that this start is in Coors. Yes, I know according to his underlying metrics he is due for some major regression with his xERA a full 2 runs higher than his actual ERA. Am I crazy? Maybe a little bit, but I think this is a solid play. In six starts since being fully stretched out he has yet to allow more than three earned runs. The ground ball rate is over 47% so he’s pitching to contact with the K/9 being only 6.53. He had similar numbers in his eight starts with the big league club in 2022. While the Rockies sport a .771 OPS at home, I still like his chances to work that sinker into a nice start. Also for those of you under the age of 37 the title is a reference to Foghorn Leghorn.
Freddy Peralta, SP: $11,800. Taking the most expensive and highest upside play to pair with Assad. The Marlins who he will face have been very good at putting the ball in play and staying away from the strikeout, but I think Peralta can overcome that tonight and get a solid 5-6 innings with 8+Ks.
Yainer Diaz, C: $4,100. Diaz is working on a six game hit streak and gets a nice match-up with lefty J.P. Sears tonight in Houston. The only catchers with more long balls than Yainer are Cal Raliegh who has 100 more At-bats, and Francisco Alvarez. I’ll be looking at lots of shares of Diaz come draft time next spring if the price is right.
Pete Alonso, 1B: $5,100. The price difference between Alonso and top option Cody Bellinger is $1,700. That’s over $100 for each Home Run Alonso has more than Belly. Now I’m not saying Bellinger isn’t worth it in Coors, but I think Alonso has just as good of a chance of going yard as Belly. He is 1 for 2 with a home run off Tuesday nights starter Ryne Nelson of the Diamondbacks in his career.
Ha-Seong Kim, 2B: $4,800. Kim has had an excellent season. He is in a Home Run dry spell not having gone deep since August 21st. What better way to break out of it than against Lance Lynn. He’s 3 for 6 with a Home Run off Lynn is his career.
Willi Castro, 3B: $3,100. Willi has come back from injury strong with 4 multi-hit games in September and a Home Run. He’s always a threat to steal a base and should get a chance against Zach Littell and the Rays tonight.
Zach Neto, SS: $2,900. Neto will face Bryan Woo and the Mariners tonight. He should get most starts for the Angels the rest of the season at Shortstop. He’s shown flashes of both power and speed when healthy at the MLB level and should be an interesting sleeper play the rest of the season and into 2024 draft season.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF: $3,000. He’ll be a popular selection and he should be at this price in Coors. Cool story about his real life mother playing the Mom in Little Big League circa 1994. He has 20 Home Runs and 37 Stolen Bases in around 500 ABs across AA and AAA this season. Strikes out a lot, but upside is high at this price.
Kyle Tucker, OF: $5,900. Tucker has slowed down a bit in the power department but has a nice history against J.P. Sears with a pair of homers in 7 at-bats.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Chance of showers all along the east coast and in Coors. They’ll be some strong winds blowing out in Chicago
Doing Lines In Vegas
I did mention I do a bit of Sports Handicapping. Follow me on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche for more info. I’ll give out a Free Play here every Tuesday, but you can find all my free and premium picks for MLB and a few other sports at The Odds Breakers
On the Cubs Run Line at -122, and I don’t hate throwing them in a parlay at -190