Welcome back to MLB DFS, Money Monday edition. It’s me, Cousin Timmy, and I’m here to keep your Monday nice and green. We have a 10-game main slate on FanDuel tonight with first pitch set for 7:05 PM ET in Washington, DC. Last week’s article was named after Joey Bart. He didn’t end up playing but his replacement, Curt Casali, hit two home runs. Hopefully, you made the easy 1-for-1 swap and reaped the benefits of the 1% owned stud.
May the fourth be with you was a few weeks ago but we can say it again tonight to poor Jordan Lyles who gets the Yankees for a fourth time this season. David Peterson got recalled from the minors to make his sixth start for the Mets against the left-handed masher Giants, while Elvin Rodrigues will take E-Rod’s roster spot on the big league club and pitch against the Twins today. We have three solid options for top-dollar tonight but I’m not crazy about Luis Garcia. Cleveland has struggled lately but they don’t strikeout much and they still have a pretty strong ISO, so I’m crossing off $10K Luis. Let’s get to who I’m going to play and who you should too!
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You honestly can’t go wrong with playing Cole vs. Baltimore and If you’re playing on DraftKings you could play both Cole and Wheeler, but this article is about FanDuel. If I’m choosing one pitcher, Wheeler is my top guy tonight. It took him a few games to get his feet wet but he has been dealing lately. Over his last four starts, he has 30 strikeouts, three quality starts, and only given up three earned runs. Wheeler rolls into Atlanta with a 29.7% K rate to face the Braves who have a 26.1% K rate, worst in the majors. Acuña is back in the lineup resulting in Wheeler with a lower ownership than Cole. This game could have some rain, and if it gets dicey or called, we can pivot to Cole with no issues.
On paper Gonzales is ugly. His 14.1% K rate and .372 wOBA are bad but tonight he’s a solid option. He’s had 10 BB in his last 18 innings but only surrendered 4 ER. If Marco can limit the free passes tonight he’ll have a great shot of hitting his ceiling against one of the worst lineups in the majors. Oakland has a 24% K rate while hitting .206, worst in the majors. I’m betting on a 6 inning, 6 strikeout night here for a potential 40 points. For $8.2K, that will do.
If you’re looking for value tonight there really isn’t much. Chris Archer is cheap and in a great spot vs. Detroit but he’s had 3 BB in four of his seven starts and has not pitched more than 4.1 innings. Cobb is our only hope under $8K to hit 30 points. On April 19, Cobb faced these same Mets and had a line of 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K. Cobb’s 5.61 ERA does not do him justice as he has a 28% K rate and a 31.3% CSW. His xERA of 1.97 tells us he should be able to turn it around. The Mets are a tough team but if we want to get different and save money on pitching, Cobb is our guy tonight.
Will Smith has not disappointed fantasy managers this season, leading all catchers with 4 HR and 18 RBI. The Dodgers have a juicy matchup with the Joan Adon in Washington. Adon has a 13.5% BB rate and a 33% hard contact rate, not good. I’ll be stacking the Dodgers tonight and Smith is a nice piece that usually gets overlooked.
Goldy is on the list for the second week in a row. His price is expensive but I just can’t ignore the tear he is on. Goldy has a .584 wOBA and a .381 ISO over the past two weeks. Jose Berrios is struggling to be the ace Toronto signed him to be and has a career low 18% K rate. Berrios name alone should move some players off the Cardinals tonight so we could get Goldy at lower ownership than he deserves.
Cardinals top prospect got called up over the weekend and has not disappointed so far. Hitting 5-for-10 with two doubles and four runs scored. If we are using Wheeler or Cole we’ll need some value with our bats. This is a nice price to pair Gorman with Goldy in a Cardinals stack.
Josh Donaldson, 3B: $3,100
Donaldson is hitting .400 with a 273 wRC+ over his last 26 at-bats. I mentioned earlier this is the fourth time the Yankees will see Jordan Lyles. Donaldson is 7-for-13 against Lyles in his career and when a team faces a pitcher often, I tend to go with the offense.
Since returning from the IL Correa has a .467 OBP and a 41% hard contact rate. The Twins are in a great spot today against Elvin Rodriguez who was just called up from the minors to pitch in his second major league game this season. His numbers in AAA were not great as he sported a 1.44 WHIP. I like the Twins today and Correa is a nice pivot off of Tre Turner.
It didn’t take long for Mookie to regain one of the top prices in DFS. He’s on fire right now with a .500 ISO and 9 runs scored over the past week. The Dodgers are primed to score big against Adon and it starts with the lead-off spot and Mookie Betts.
It wouldn’t be a slate without Judge and the Yankees at high ownership. That’s likely what we will get tonight, but it’s warranted. Judge is the best outfielder in baseball right now. He leads the majors in HR and RBI and is in the top ten in both average and runs scored. Jordan Lyles, you’re not really this good.
I could list Giancarlo Stanton here but you get the picture about stacking Yankees. So here’s snake in the grass stack for you. Alek Thomas is hitting .326 with 3 HR over his last 12 games and the Arizona outfield has been crushing. With a .245 ISO and 8 HR, the Diamondbacks’ outfield leads the majors over the past two weeks. Unfortunately for Zack Greinke, Father Time has caught up to him and he’s facing an average Arizona team at the wrong time. Greinke has great control and does not walk many but his 37.7% hard contact rate is real bad. The snakes get to him tonight and this outfield is worth a stack, starting with Thomas.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Some rain in the southeast that could impact Washington and Atlanta. Keep an eye on those two games.
Doing Lines In Vegas
This is as close as I’ve got to doing lines in Vegas in over six years, so let’s make it count. I like the Phillies run-line (-1.5) at +128 odds.
Good luck tonight and feel free to hit me up @TimmySperos on Twitter with any questions!