Per the usual, I have to drop a caveat when it comes to Deep League Thoughts about pitchers: there’s no such thing as a deep league pitcher.  Unless you’re talking 20 team leagues and then you’re calling some relievers deep league pitchers.  I ain’t going there so let’s realize upfront before you feel affronted.  Now that we have that settled, when does a young pitcher settle?  Two years?  Four years?  Do they ever?  It’s all hard to predict.  As we’ve seen through our years as fantasy baseballers, growth isn’t a promise from a young kid, it’s a possibility.  How many rookies came and went on your rosters in 2014 alone?  I’m not asking you, Grey.  You’d add and drop the same player five times in one day so you don’t count, you chronic rosterbator.  That said, I’m sure Trevor Bauer hit your roster more than once.  He had some good with some bad in 2014.  Maybe you got the bad from him and won’t go near him again.  Maybe you had more of the good like I did and you’re willing to look into him a bit further.  If so, trudge on with me.  We’re about to go deep inside the enigma that is Bauer and what he can do for you for the 2015 Fantasy Baseball season…

So we’re gonna play a little game.  It’s the believers vs truthers game.  Truthers are out to disprove and believers…well, c’mon put 2 and 2 together and don’t ask me if it’s tuna just cuz the can says chicken of the sea.  For fun, I looked back at age 23 seasons from starters with 150 innings pitched or more over the last 5 years.  I know, that’s a pretty small and extremely specific sampling but baseball is a changing sport and I’d rather look at recent comps than try to compare Trevor to Roger Clemens, m’kay?  The believers will point to the fact that Bauer had the 9th highest K/9 of pitchers his age over the last 5 years with Yordano Ventura sitting at 10 and Mat Latos sitting at the eight spot.  The truthers?  They’ll point to his 7th worst BB/9 rate, behind so far mediocre starters in Matt Moore, Jhoulys Chacin, Zach Britton, Shelby Miller, and Trevor Cahill.  Yuck.  So to say you’re drafting him on his current K%-BB% of 12.5% (which was only 47th best in the league) would be a fallacy: you’re drafting for growth.  But can’t the same argument be said for Yordano Ventura?  Oh, you’d never seen him before and Bauer got old fast with his 2012 and 2013 stints.  I see, 33.1 IP did it for you?  You know what Bauer is or isn’t now?  Gotcha.  The reality is, if we did a blind stat-sniff test, who do you want?  Bauer bettered Ventura in K/9 (8.41 vs 7.74) almost mirrored in BB/9 (3.53 vs 3.42) and though the ERAs were nearly a run different (4.18 to 3.23), the xFIPs suggests their seasons weren’t that far from each other (4.18 vs 3.77).  Of course, this isn’t a damning of Ventura anymore than it’s a praising of Bauer, but it comes back to who you think you’re drafting.  Draft one because they have upside, ignore the other because they’re toast yet they’re both 23.  Now it may be that Bauer never figures it out.  Maybe we’re seeing his peak at this ripe, young age and any improvements will be subtle and menial for fantasy purposes.  But if that’s so, his stats say he could be a top 40’ish pitcher given 180 innings.  Don’t believe me?  Yordano finished as the 41st best pitcher according to player rater.  So you have floor with potential for much higher and a draft day price of…well, there’s really no draft day price.  He’s freer than Tara Reid’s boobs on the red carpet after a cocaine binge.  Yeah it was a dated reference but I don’t get out much.  Did ya SEE the writeup I just did?  Sheesh…

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Cram It
Cram It
7 years ago

I’m bored. What round are you guys in? Are you dominating?

Sky
Sky
Reply to  Cram It
7 years ago

@Cram It: Ha, I wouldn’t call it dominating but I’m happy with my choices so far. We just started round 9. So far, here’s me:

Goldy
Scherzer
Arenado
Carlos Santana
Heyward
D. Robertson
Carrasco
Alex Gordon
R. Zimmerman

Wanted both Gordon and Trumbo (I’m near the turn at #2) but Trumbo went 2 picks prior to me. Zimmerman at 1B might stay healthy. I know, I know, crazy talk…how about yourself?

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Sky
7 years ago

@Sky: We’re mid-round 9. I’m happy with my choices. One guy I should’ve taken before Bogey that I’m hoping comes back around, but I feel like he’s the only question mark so far.

Carlos Gomez
Donaldson
Crush
Cespedes
Arrieta
Carrasco
Betances
Bogaerts

Have a safe trip(s) man!

KittenMittens
KittenMittens
7 years ago

What I’m curious about is whether he gave us his 45 minute across the stadium long toss routine?? I’ve always liked him but that’s just gotta be insane right?!?!

KittenMittens
KittenMittens
Reply to  Sky
7 years ago

@Sky: To each his own I guess, I know my arm would be blown out by throw #2. But, I appreciate the good read on him, I’ll be taking a stabby stab on Trevor.

GhostTownSteve
GhostTownSteve
7 years ago

4 words: Ron Wolforth Baseball Ranch

Wake Up
Reply to  GhostTownSteve
7 years ago

@GhostTownSteve: 2 Words: Fast Twitch

True and Correct
True and Correct
7 years ago

12 teamer ? Sky, did you pick 5th ? Reached for Arenado ? Reached for Santana.
Looks like a 15 teamer.

J-FOH
J-FOH
7 years ago

Well played, now where is my reference to the tribes magic curry dust that transforms these guys beyond their perceived value.

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Sky
7 years ago

@Sky: wait, you mean the massive improvements of Kluber and carassaco was in the cards and not the result of some kind of magic? This changes everything

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Sky
7 years ago

@Sky: I need to lay off the halucinogens

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Sky
7 years ago

@Sky: yeah, soda is a crazy drug

Wake Up
Reply to  J-FOH
7 years ago

@J-FOH: Much more lethal than shrooms…

Nico
Nico
7 years ago

Wow. Tara Reid reference. Diggin deep. I like it. How many sentences can I write with less than 3 words? Okay, I’ll stop wasting your time. What’s up with your NFBC? Ours is crawling at a pace slower than my mustache grows. Which is slow, in case you’re keeping track. Anything weird happen? And how’s your roster stackin up? Just shootin the shiz w my over-the-internet-friend, Sky.

Nico
Nico
Reply to  Nico
7 years ago

@Nico: Wow, Cram it gettin at you first. He’s a better OTI-Friend…

Nico
Nico
Reply to  Nico
7 years ago

And now I’m just talkin to myself.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Nico
7 years ago

@Nico: Haha. I don’t even know why I’m hanging out in the draft room. NOTHING is going to happen for 3 more hours.

Nico
Nico
Reply to  Sky
7 years ago

@Sky: Wow, I went Goldy as well. Goldy/Arenado/Dickerson/Greinke/Dozier. I was trying to scoop Santana round 4, but Grey nabbed him first. Good position versatility.

Grey
Admin
Reply to  Nico
7 years ago

Rudy’s draft is in the 9th round

Nico
Nico
Reply to  Grey
7 years ago

@Grey: Only benefit we have is that we’ll be able to figure out who’s being called up in September before our draft is over.

Grey
Admin
Reply to  Nico
7 years ago

Ha!

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Grey
7 years ago

@Grey: Goddamn. I guess someo had to get the short straw.

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Sky
7 years ago

@Sky: can we name a year and you make a reference game?

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Sky
7 years ago

@Sky: 1995?

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Sky
7 years ago

@Sky: 1997?

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Sky
7 years ago

@Sky: 1993

Nico
Nico
Reply to  J-FOH
7 years ago

@J-FOH: My 5th birthday! Boom. It was at a bowling alley. Rager! Sugar comas for EVERYONE. EVERYONE!

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Sky
7 years ago

that would of been 1995 sky

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  J-FOH
7 years ago

I was just dating your pee comment, glad you havent thrown this one at me yet

what you’ve just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  J-FOH
7 years ago

and now the truth comes out, you smug SOB

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  Sky
7 years ago

@Sky: you ain’t kidding about anti razz there, 4-3 hitter to pitcher after 7 picks!, 1 OF only after 7!

Cram It
Cram It
7 years ago

Where are you in your NFBC draft? We’ve got one guy that’s a serious time offender. You can imagine what I want to do to him.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Sky
7 years ago

@Sky: Yeah, I’m learning on the fly. Just trying to get a balanced starting lineup. I have 2 SP’s too (Carrasco as well), 2 OF’s, 2 CI’s.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Sky
7 years ago

@Sky: I think there are big power potential guys way down the ranks that aren’t in the outfield. I won’t discuss that here. But certainly OF is deep enough to find some guys to fill that. I like my Outfielders to have the power/speed combo

Alex Smigliani
Alex Smigliani
7 years ago

Question, in a standard 5×5 Roto League. If you had a choice of one P who would you take from the following? Baur, Salazar, Porcello or Shoemaker.

Blues
7 years ago

Good article on Bauer Sky, I’ve picked him up /Dropped at least 4 times in past years and I wonder on my keeper list where you rank him against Salazar, Liriano, and Montero for the next few years in terms of production?

Blues
Reply to  Sky
7 years ago

@Sky: Thanks (Rafeal Montero) I think Bauer takes that next step for CLE and agree with your assessment.