Corners Reports: Third Base Was Hard To Rank This Preseason

A little accountability here. Went back and looked at my articles ranking guys to start the season. First base, not bad! Everyone has a weak spot here or there. Third base? Um, can we go back to first base? I had Matt Olson fourth! Said Bryce Harper would be a great pick in the fourth?

In the big picture, first base is basically what you would expect, and predicting third base was as easy as a blindfolded axe-throwing competition. Young breakouts and weird declines are the hallmarks of third base this year. The lesson learned is not to underrate guys just because they’re young. Take a risk, Kelder!

Okay, fine, now that it’s written, you probably want to know how bad it was. Here’s a link to the referenced article.

WORST CALLS

Manny Machado and Austin Riley were the 3-4 ranked guys at third base. Machado was “bankable.” “Because, like, pasta, he’s a safe player.” The guy is hitting .166 and has a 69 WRC+. He’s been 31 percent worse than an average player. I’d say buy low, but that’s too obvious. The guy will never be on another team of mine, like he is in my home league paired with Austin Riley (still in second place, yaboy knows what’s up).

See, I practice what I preach! Riley, at age 29, seems like he’s in an early decline. At least Machado is underperforming his metrics. Riley, on the other hand, is doing exactly what the metrics would predict he’d do. Neither of these guys has bat speed issues either; it’s all their contact. Machado isn’t squaring it up, and Riley is whiffing too much. Unless these change, there’s no way I’ll rank them 3-4 ever again, unless you put the two numbers together and make a 34.

For first base, Vinnie Pasquantino at five was a lousy call. .220 with six home runs. I overrated his second half due to a scorching hot August, which I had on a dynasty team that skyrocketed up 5 spots that month. The plate approach is fine, he’s not whiffing a ton, he’s just channeling his inner Eric Hosmer. I’d have him firmly in the 15-20 range now.

Best Takes

There were no great takes for me at third base to start the season. I missed Josh Jung‘s breakout after hyping him for two years. Munetaka Murakami, I did have 12th at the position and said, “I’ll bet after pick 200 on the light tower power,” which aged well. I faded Jazz Chisholm Jr. at 8th, and he’s 10th. Small successes, sure. This year has not been ideal for third base.

At first, my top four:

Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Bryce Harper, Nick Kurtz, Matt Olson.

Didn’t miss the layups. Also loved my Freddie Freeman: I don’t predict a cliff, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few Eric Hosmer type seasons as Freeman winds his Hall of Fame career down

Pete Alonso: “Call it a gut feel, but I feel Chris Davis vibes. Not the cliff/crater version: I’m going .245, 30 HR, 90 RBI”

Alonso is projected to hit .239 with 31 HR, 96 RBI, 85 Runs.

Okay, enough self-flagellation and congratulation. It’s June, and there’s baseball to be analyzed!

Who’s Hot

Miguel Vargas, eligible at both CI spots, just keeps going. The past seven days, he’s slashed .296/.387/.704, boosted by a three home run week. Vargas continues with a 15% walk rate, and with his current contact stats looking good, he’s a safe bet for the season. In fact, there’s untapped batting average upside. He’s still plenty valuable, though. By Razzball projections, he’ll end up with 27 HR, 91 R, and 80 RBI. He has a legitimate top-50 case for next year if he can keep this up, and even more if the batting average rises.

Who’s Not

Oh, Colt Keith, it’s time to give up on that dream, isn’t it? Not all of them, he could live a full and happy life, but as a fantasy asset, it’s time to get off him. He’s 0-for-16 his last week, and in the last 30, just .188 with 1 whopping RBI. He may heat up again, but just wait for that. There’s no need to keep him around. I cut him in my TGFBI (7th place, not bad given competition) because I needed an Aaron Judge replacement OF. If he’s not rosterable in a deep 14-team league, he’s out of the circle of trust.

Who did you guys whiff on in the preaseason? Who was your sleeper that panned out? Hit it below in the comments!

Thanks for reading, and have a great week. My next one will be coming from the Outer Banks of North Carolina, unless the WIFI goes out, as it tends to do.