Corner Report: Break Out Or Fake Out?

The first few weeks of a season are fraught with peril.  It’s not like other sports in baseball.  For football, you have a 100 yard week with 2 TD, yeah, he’s a pickup.  In hoops, a guy spikes to 28 minutes and double doubles, get that guy on your team.  Baseball, you get 3 HR on opening day, your name is Tuffy Rhodes.

Let’s look at some guys who are off to great starts, and figure out if they are a true break out, or if it’s just a fake out.  All of these stats are from Monday when all of these rad bros were in the top 10 in the Razzball Player Rater.

SPENCER STEER:

As a super fun bonus, Steer is eligible at first and third base.  That’s two entire positions.  No, I did not notice that instead of eligible, I wrote edible.  Haha made you look!

This is a really good stat line.  He’s walking more than last year, striking out less, and his hard hit rate is at 54% instead of last year’s 37%.  I think if you drafted him you’ll be happy with the return even if this crazy start isn’t sustainable.  I do think his baseline for the rest of the season should be higher than the projections given (sorry, Rudy) but early results show a lower strikeout rate, much more power, and just a studly profile.

The only wart I can find is that he’s batting over .400 on fastballs and around .280 on offspeed stuff.  If I were a pitcher and were capable of throwing a curveball over the plate at my advanced age, I would stick to the offspeed.

VERDICT:  Minor Break Out, he’s going to be worth starting all season, but won’t keep this crazy pace.  I would expect some improvement from last year though.

MICHAEL BUSCH:

Oh, goody goody gumdrops.  Well, not gumdrops.  Come to think of it, when’s the last time you saw someone eating a gumdrop?  All the kids going to Nerd Gummies.  So what do you say then, Goody Goody Nerd Clusters?  Not the same ring to it.  To make a short thought long, I was trying to express my excitement about Busch and his 3b/1b eligibility.  That’s helpful!

Wow, that’s a huge disparity between his production and his projection.  I’m going to bet the over on his projections. I don’t think he’s going to be a negative dollar value, for one.  The expected average he has is .319 according to Statcast, and that lines up with what he’s actually producing.  The power is real;  the dingers are epic.  He’s on a 5 game HR streak, longest in Cub history.  Why is he still available in any leagues?

With a guy who won the PCL player of the year, who was blocked by a future first ballot Hall of Famer or three, who produces, why on earth would you not run to pick him up?  It’s probably too late, but the verdict is:

BREAK OUT

I’m all in on my preseason rookie of the year pick.  Look for a 30 HR season with a .275 average and great production in the middle of the Cubs lineup.

CONNOR JOE:

I don’t think I really shoulda included this guy. You’re all smart and can check his underlying stats.  He’s been riding elite plate discipline and some luck.  His expected batting average is .239, his career average is .249 and he’s never shown power.  I’m gonna go ahead and doubt this small sample size as a

FAKE OUT and I apologize for wasting your time.  Hopefully, you are good readers and read this at a nice brisk pace and didn’t spend too much time on Connor Joe.

TRISTON CASAS:

Triston Houses is a fine translation, and I drafted this guy in TGFBI, RazzSlam, and my home leagues.  I will admit a genetic predisposition to liking him.  Is that the right thing, or is it really supposed to just be biased?  I donut know, Homer.

I’m not going to show a fancy table because it doesn’t support my thesis and my old college professor would be turning over on his dais or podium if I wrote in such a poor manner.  That or for some reason I can’t get the columns lined up.  So just trust me on this, okay?

His stats in the past week have been boosted by 3 HR and a .300 BA with an OBP over 4.  If you, like me, thought Casas was at his lowest value on draft day and was gonna bust out, don’t let one week deter you.  Like I said before, this isn’t a running back getting 2 carries and 1 passing target who you’re counting on.  It’s just really small samples which make you worry for a little while.

BREAK OUT even if the overall numbers aren’t there quite yet.

That’s it for this week.  Hopefully, I don’t jinx myself like I did last week with Pete Alonso, who is hitting .429 with 4 HR since I said I was trying to move off of him.  At least my “patience” with Vinnie Pasquantino worked out at a .421/.500/.841 clip.  Wait, I said wait until June?  Must have been an autocorrect.  Watch Casas go 0-April from here out or something.

Oh, the perils of writing about fickle athletes once a week.  Who have you guys bought in on with hot starts?  Who is your break out and fake out?