As much as I love publishing and giving you the “haps” on the closer ranks, I love the depth that a bullpen can give you and how it can affect your roster.  It is way to early to look into my Grafix crystal ball and say this guy and that one will be the crowned prince of the hold this year… to some degree.  Early usage and situations prove a lot.  Yes, injuries happen, and ineffective spells happen, and sometimes trades happen, but if you were good enough to make the team out of Spring, then usually you are good enough to make yourself an established piece of the bullpen.  The top names are still the top names.  The cream either rises to the top or it rules everything around me, both perspectives are interesting because how can you not believe the Wu or old school rhetoric. So with the first bullpen piece of the year, we will cover all the same things you are accustomed to from last year as I get more in-depth than anyone else when it comes to holds.  Some don’t care or are on the fence, as if it’s a completely comical or made up stat.  It is no more made up then saves, because that is exactly what it is, just before the save… so it is basically a pre-save.  Either way, I care and will give you some early trends to look at and some names to go with it.  Trends rule everything around bullpens or TREAB, dolla dolla bill y’all.
- Top billing for me this week is a Hold stalwart and decent cuff-option Sergio Romo. Â He has a tender elbow and this affects one of the most used bullpens in baseball. Â Hunter Strickland, who was in my mind on par with what Romo could do, is the guy now for the time being. Â Secondary props to Josh Osich, who as the second lefty who is a non-LOOGY, like Lopez, will get some decent looks. Â Tertiary to George Kontos/Cory Gearrin if the news on Romo is less than good.
- Maybe David Hernandez just isn’t meant to be closer.  His career ERA in straight save situations is three times higher than that when just in a hold situation.  He has 4 holds already and is a different pitcher then Jeanmar, and compliments him better then usurping him.
- The Royals just keep churning out quality former first round draft pick bullpen arms.  Luke Hochevar is the new Ryan Madson.  Kelvin is still Kelvin in the same role, but Luke is the driving force and has given a nice 12 K/9 to date, and is the guy they call on when runners are on in scoring position, 8 inherited runners and one scored, with the lead.  Really great streaming option as he pitches two out of four days.
- Nate Jones is the guy in pale hose garb. Â The early season K return isn’t there yet, but he is a career 9.6 K/9. Â The numbers will come, but for now, the pattern is Albers, Duke for LH, Jones, D-Rob to close it out. Â It is also not surprising that the early bullpen success of the White Sox pin them atop the leader board for save situations (19) and Holds (11).
- With Glen Perkins hitting the DL, and his outlook is bleak at best, as he has battled injuries similar before.  His velocity has decreased for four straight years and I am not confident on something longer term then normal.  Kevin Jepsen held his own last year and went 15 saves and 24 holds last year with 5 blown.  His previous experience and the lack of that experience, or “unreadiness” from May… well, Chargois and Burdi lead me to believe that Jepsen is the guy unless the Twins continue the futility and go into punt formation.
Smokey’s Swimming up Stream:
Streaming options to play and punt for the next week:
Saturday – Jim Henderson, Â NYM @Â Cle.
Sunday – Blake Treinen, Was @ Phi.
Monday – Zach Duke, CHW vs. Angels.
Tuesday – Bryan Shaw, Cle vs. Sea.
Wednesday – Junichi Tazawa, Bos vs TB.
Thursday – Pedro Baez, LAD @ Atl.
Friday – Luke Hochevar, KC vs. Bal.
| Player | Holds/BS | App with Lead | IR Runners/IR Scored |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Jones | 4/1 | 5 | 3/1 |
| David Hernandez | 4/0 | 5 | 2/1 |
| Drew Storen | 4/0 | 4 | 0/0 |
| Sergio Romo | 4/0 | 4 | 1/1 |
| Justin Wilson | 4/0 | 5 | 1/0 |
| Fernando Salas | 3/1 | 4 | 3/1 |
| Zach Duke | 3/0 | 6 | 1/0 |
| Sam Dyson | 3/0 | 6 | 3/0 |
| Koji Uehara | 3/0 | 4 | 0/0 |
| Tony Watson | 3/0 | 3 | 2/0 |
| Mychal Givens | 3/0 | 3 | 1/0 |
| Junichi Tazawa | 3/0 | 3 | 0/0 |
| Matt Albers | 3/0 | 4 | 4/0 |
| Neftali Feliz | 3/0 | 3 | 3/1 |
| Hector Neris | 3/0 | 3 | 4/2 |
| Boone Logan | 3/0 | 3 | 5/2 |
| Jose Alvarez | 3/0 | 3 | 3/1 |
| Brett Cecil | 2/2 | 4 | 2/2 |
| Luke Hochevar | 2/2 | 4 | 8/1 |
| Darren O’Day | 2/0 | 4 | 0/0 |
Thoughts on MIguel Castro as a decent option (Outside of Coors) Small sample size, but ratios between this year and last look yummy.
@The Great Knoche: Def a guy for deeper leagues, mixes in with Logan and Qualls. Has the goods to close for a lower level team
You the man Smokey, these are so good to have.
@Carl Weathers: Glad you liked it.
need saves! Gomez or Jepsen or Castilla?
@Grandma’s boy: Casilla, Gomez, Jepson is my order.
Casilla will get the most save chances
@Bye Felica: I conncur
Probably a question you’ve had way too many times this week, but should I grab Jepsen and drop Giles? Or continue to hold Giles and hope he turns it around?
Currently have McGee, Tolleson and Rodney.. Not too f’ing good.. But maybe good enough to wait on Giles a bit longer. What do you think?
Thanks!
@Bocephus: Velasquez has more outs recorded in the 9th inning then Giles
@Bocephus: lose Giles for Jep
@Bocephus: Yes absolutely, you need to make up for the lost saves from Giles anywheres you can
SV+HLD league, dropping Matt Moore for a RP. Would you advise NJones, PStrop, or JWilson? Also factor in K/9
@Michael Davis: All three are good options. I would go Strop but wouldn’t be afraid to shuffle as soon as he gets one hold move on and so on, and so on
Whom would you rather have T.May and T.Zych ? Looking for K’s /9 and maybe a Save. I own both K.Jepsen and S.Cishek.
6×6 daily roto (No Holds ) and Saves are hard to come buy (especially my team with Hoover and Colome also on it )
@Joeg414: Well Perkins should be back in a 2 weeks time so he factors back into the Twins sitch pushing May back down, but in the meantime I would want May on the off day save from Jepsen.
What up smoke. Any Carson smith news? Does he get the 7th back right away?
Also, super deep 15-team AL only, S+Hlds, would you drop Petricka or Enny Romero for any of the following?
Mahle
Mike Morin
Abad
Kyle Ryan
Ryan Webb
TJ McFarland
Taylor Rogers
Biagini
And/or I could DL Franklin Morales
Thanks mang
@SheriffMcRawDawg: Smith had a bullpen on Wednesday and was primarily throwing fastballs
All tertiary guys unfortunately, I liked Morin coming into the year but Alvarez and Salas and even Mahle are gobbling up limited opps. But I would look at the Angels guys.
Rogers is going back down soon and is buried there. Same with McFarland and Biagini.
Is a guy like Barnette from Tex avail?
If you have more names feel free to add
@Smokey: he’s taken unfortunately. thanks for the tip though.
Looks like someone just dropped Ryan Pressly – would you drop Petricka for him (Enny just got a hold and has some more value in a dynasty I feel)?
thanks man
@SheriffMcRawDawg: considering that Pressly didn’t pitch today, it is probably a good stream viability and with them facing the Brewers tomorrow
@Smokey: what about long term? this is a super deep dynasty (S+Hlds) where pretty much the only available starting players are relievers and waives are only twice a week so streaming isn’t too reliable.
drop or hold Petricka for Mahle, Morin or Pressly long term?
@SheriffMcRawDawg: all seem like a lateral change type thing. I would rate them Mahle, Pressley, Morin Petricka for long term value
@Smokey: cool thanks man
15 team roto with holds plus saves as a category.
I have Grilli, QBUSH, Feliz, and Oh
Would you swap out any of those with these?
Brach, Givens, Axford, M. Castro, P. Baez, J. Henderson, Albers, Salas, or J. Alvarez
We have limited moves. So, I’m looking for Rest of season totals.
Thanks, Smokey. Keep up the great work
@kenly0: I would say swap but with limited moves you dont wanna be using them up on relievers. All would be a minimal difference over Grilli, but on better teams so more opportunities. So Grilli would be my guy to guy when you are ready, so hold for now and hope he can give you 2 a week at best
@Smokey:
Thanks for the quick reply
Hey Smokey. Love your work! I currently have Giles and Dyson as insurance for Gregerson and Tolleson in my league (we count Holds, my other closer is Rondon, and we usually roll 3 closers, 2 set-up guys).
Do you see the Holds upside of the former pair equal to say a Nate Jones or Hochevar/Herrera? Both Gregerson and Tolleson have nailed down their recent chances and I’m hoping they prove to be Donkeycorns.
How do you usually play this situation? If the set-up guy is pitching well, I wouldn’t question it, but if Giles keeps giving up HR (we count HRA), I’m thinking I might move off him and leave Gergerson exposed. Thoughts?
Thanks again. Best post of the week! (Don’t tell the Fantasy Master Lethario.)
@JakeTPE: Giles is a hold and hope he regains his form, the investment in him is a little tentaive to drop….but its getting close
@JakeTPE: and thanks for the kind words
@Smokey: 10-4 Smokey thanks for the advice. The HLD-SV combo in same game is nice too!
Who’s the best Holds option in that Dodgers pen. Currently I have Baez and have taken Yimi and Hatcher for a spin so far this year, but there doesn’t seem to be a consistent usage pattern emerging just yet.
Thoughts?
@SteveNZ: Baez for me right now
@Smokey: So of course they go to Hatcher tonight! Sheesh.
@SteveNZ: he faced Span and a weaker from the right side versus a LH in Pagan, so it wasn’t atypical of a match-up thing
hey buddy
we have 8 spots for svs/hlds guys am im only using 6, but 5 top 12 closers…davis, britton, osuna, miller, rondon, madson and givens
do i need to hang onto givens? we use k/9. kind of hard to drop him?
wanna grab matt moore
Thx
@Slimbo: Using 7
@Slimbo: Yea I would find a way to keep him, but Moore needs to be rostered as well
@Smokey:
Could drop Souza Jr instead? He’s just a bench bat
Do you see Ryan Dull getting any Holds action for the A’s?
@SteveNZ: yes, but in spurts and not many accumulating He is the go between long guy and stitutional guy so not something worth rostering on a constant unless some shuffle in the A’s pen do to injury happens.
Ryan Madson or Kevin Jepsen?
Which would you rather roster?
@Chadaristic: right now Madson, for the haul its close and hinges on Perkins
dynasty with holds, relief appearances, k/9 and relief wins, farq or caminero (YEA!!) or quack or grimm? 20 teamer with 7 RP slots. surprising this many even decent options out there, lot of guys dropped lately.
2. NL only for saves only, hold jumbo (in minors likely short term) or grab quack/m.castro/cothem city (CIN)?
3 saves only (ratios 2nd) best out of: grilli /giles/cedeno/soria/maurer, i currently have dyson.
@Flowers misses his old glasses… he’s ok tho: chargois and burdi options in the first one as well, could even stash, we have 5 NA slots (i have good prospects in mine already, but margot and dahl mostly only as trade chips).
@Flowers misses his old glasses… he’s ok tho: oops, may around in #3.
i’ll clean this up for one spot.
1.dynasty with holds, relief appearances, k/9 and relief wins, farq/caminero/grimm/quack/may. 20 teamer with 7 RP slots. surprising this many even decent options out there, lot of guys dropped lately. started year with more closers but now have giles/diekman/tolleson/salas/hatcher/kela/farq. can stash burdi or chargois as well (but they’d likely not be keepers for next year, we keep up to 25, but mostly hitters in those slots, or SP. i last year had melancon/tolleson/giles/k-rob but have since traded melancon/iglesias/k-rob/quintana/t.anderson for upton/archer/cobb, so big up at expense of bullpen flipping there.
2. NL only for saves only, hold jumbo (in minors likely short term) or grab quack/m.castro/cothem city/cingrani (CIN)?
3 saves only (ratios 2nd) best out of: grilli /giles/cedeno/soria/maurer/may, i currently have dyson.
@Flowers misses his old glasses… he’s ok tho: May or Quack
Castro
May or Grilli if saves are priority
@Smokey: change 2 Castro seems to be injured and going through some shoulder issues I would gamble on Cingrani getting a look
@Smokey: just saw this now, glad i did, cingrani was gross, and like you said on castro, saw that too. is cothem city (or ohlendork) over jumbo the best one in the NL only?
@Flowers misses his old glasses… he’s ok tho: that could apply in #3 as well, grilli/may/cothem city.
@Flowers misses his old glasses… he’s ok tho: all are crap shoots the Cincy pen is a dumpster fire but in NL ya gotta chase
@Smokey: yeah, that NY site proclaimed cothem city new guy likely so i went him in 2 and 3. that site ain’t monkeying around.
@Flowers misses his old glasses… he’s ok tho: I am familiar with the site, but Lorenzen may be a new face there in a week or two but its a carousel of badness
@Smokey: interesting on lorenzen, yr first to mention that one. cothem’s K rate hasn’t been great but only guy to not have been blown up (most of the time with jumbo and hoover) yet.
I have McGee, Vizcaino, and Jepsen for saves in a H2H points league. Someone dropped Jeffress. Should I switch out Jepsen for Jeffress?
Also, thoughts on Cingrani? Should i try to get him at the expense of a streamer spot and see if he works out and then re-evaluate my closers later?
@toneDEAF!: Jeffress needs to be owned and is a better closer option then Viz imo
I cannot find stats on zack Weiss anywhere. Is he pitching? For what affiliate? Thanks man.
@Beetroot McKinley: he is on the minor league DL
The only saves I currently get are from Andrew Miller. I missed the draft and missed on saves. anyway, I have Trevor May too. Who else should I gamble on as a save vulture, but will still help in K’s, WHIP and ERA in the meantime?
Hochevar, Giles, O’Day, Dyson, Kelvin Herrera?
I keep wanting to add Giles for the potential upside, but not sure. I would be dropping Morales, Schoop or Souza Jr. All are bench / UTIL bats for me. I have an abundance of 2B with Segura, Rendon, Dozier and Schoop. (3B is Arenado and SS is Correa so I don’t need Segura or rendon at those spots).
@Will: @Smokey Thoughts??
@Will: Well if you wanna gamble it’s either Giles or Dyson. But O’day is damn sexy with ratios and can’t eb ignored for if Britton goes down.
I agree Giles is tempting but Gregerson is rooted there for now and it will take a string aof badness to replace, Souza is droppable
20 team league with holds and saves. i have rondon/colome/siegrist/jumbo, dropping jumbo for either cotham, but don’t think i want 3 saves guys/1 holds guy, esp when i could get a GOOD holds guy anyway. options are benoit/cedeno/hudson/treinen/tazawa.