It’s been well documented all draft prep season that the shortstop position is deeeeeeeeeep. So deep that Ron Jeremy has signed up for a Razzball Commenter League for the challenge. So deep that the CEO of CVS has taken offense. So deep that Rodin’s Thinker has asked to be moved into solitary. The top 10 shortstops are all being drafted in the top 45 overall. There are 14 being drafted in the top 100. There are still viable options within the top 200! With a plethora of options, there are so many viable ways to attack drafts and this position in particular. Would double tapping the shortstop and middle infield slots after making William Wallace proud be the way to go? In this scenario, I’m thinking about Paul DeJong and Jean Segura, who are both being selected with the 196th overall pick in NFBC drafts from the start of February. It must be your lucky day, as you get double the content for the price of…..free. Uhh, Grey. I think we need to alter the business model a tad.

 

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DeJong was being drafted in the 190 range before the start of the 2019 season. And for good reason, as he required surgery for a broken hand after getting plunked by a pitch in 2018. He ended up playing 115 games and accruing 490 plate appearances. Last season, DeJong played in 159 games, had 664 plate appearances, clubbed 30 home runs, stole 9 bases, scored 97 runs, and drove in 78. The 664 plate appearances were the 25th-most in MLB last season. Among shortstops, he ranked 6th in plate appearances, 7th in home runs, 8th in runs, 10th in RBI, and 13th in stolen. Yet, he’s being drafted as the 21st shortstop!

I don’t understand what’s going on here. Steamer has him projected for 642 plate appearances with 29 homers, 79 runs, 89 RBI, and 7 stolen bases. Rudy has DeJong down for 621 plate appearances with 28.3 homers, 81.8 runs, 84.6 RBI, and 6.8 stolen bases. The walk rate is projected to be 8%, the strikeout rate is 23.5%, and the slash at .252/.322/.464. The plate discipline numbers look fine. The barrel rate and launch angle look good according to the Statcast data. The exit velocity of 87 mph, which was good for 219th in MLB last season, is troubling. With that said, he’s slated to bat clean up for the Cardinals and according to Steamer, only seven shortstops are projected to hit more home runs and have more RBI than DeJong.

As for Segura, there was much optimism when he went from the Mariners to the Phillies before the start of last season. He was being drafted as the 63rd overall player. Those who selected him were disappointed, though, as he only hit 12 homers and stole 10 bases. Talk about overcorrection by the market this year!

First things first, Segura had a littany of injuries last season. There were the heel and knee issues in July. Then, in September, there were ankle and hamstring injuries. He attempted 12 stolen bases last season. The prior two seasons, Segura attempted 31 and 30. Health permitting, the stolen bases should see a significant uptick.

In terms of the hitting profile, nothing changed. The walk rate was at 4.9%, right at his career average. The strikeout rate was a low 11.8%. The batting average ticked down to .280, after being .304 and .300 the prior two years, but the BABIP also ticked down to .302 from the .327 and .339 numbers he put up in Seattle. I attribute some of that to the injuries, as he wasn’t able to leg out as many hits. The batted ball profile and plate discipline numbers were close to his career norms. If you want to nitpick, the chase rate did spike up a few percent. Other than that, nothing out of the ordinary.

The one damper to Segura’s situation could be in the batting order placement. Roster Resource currently has him batting 6th in the order right now. Last season, Segura had 358 plate appearances batting second.

DeJong should provide power, while Segura should contribute across-the-board fantasy goodies. Double tapping these two in the 12 to 13 round range could be a viable strategy if you load up at other positions. If you check out Rudy’s Player Rater, Dejong is the 146th overall player, while Segura is 92nd. There’s profit potential to be mined here. Now, remember that everything depends on roster construction and draft dynamics.

VERDICT

 
  1. papasmurf says:
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    From the very start he was not running. Had nothing to do with injuries. More to do with the Philly offensive philosophy. New manager so does that change this year?

    I would be shocked if he passes 20 steals.

    • Son

      Son says:
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      Gabe Kapler definitely had an effect, but Philly actually ended up 16th in stolen bases attempted per game!

      Girardi has in the past like to run, so I’m going off the assumption that will remain the case this year.

      I’m with you in 20 being a ceiling. A 15/15 season with a good average is really good at the price he’s going at right now

  2. pish pash says:
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    look no further than his 2nd half. 17 HRs you say! Oh, .202/.285/.447. yeeeeeeesh. If you’re looking to sell out for power, i guess he’s ok?

  3. pish pash says:
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    for dejong, look no further than his 2nd half. 17 HRs you say! Oh, .202/.285/.447. yeeeeeeesh. If you’re looking to sell out for power, i guess he’s ok?

    • Son

      Son says:
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      Yup, the batting average is a concern, but the power is legit. He’s a cheap source of power at a palatable cost. That’s why double tapping with Segura, who has a very good average isn’t a bad combo to have.

      • Evan Pasha says:
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        i like it

  4. Sweet Panther says:
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    Son, you may recall I recently asked your thoughts on Hiura, things have changed, and pertinent to the SS double tap……traded for Trea Turner.

    Yahoo 6×6 OPS/HOLDS, 13 team keeper league with 18 active roster slots. Keepers are:

    Trea Turner rd 2
    Bryce rd 7
    Sale rd 8
    Soto rd 12
    Clevinger rd 16
    Corbin rd 16
    The kraken tatis jr are free for me

    Do I roll with that and or keep Machado at rd 5 instead of a pitcher ?

    • Son

      Son says:
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      I thought about replacing Sale for Machado, but 8th round is too good of a price. Plus, you have Tatis. I think you’re good.

  5. Sweet Panther says:
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    Thank you muchly

    • Son

      Son says:
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      Anytime

  6. Sweet Panther says:
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    Son, I’m back, I’m having a busy spring training making pre draft trades in my league, just traded Machado for an extra keeper slot.

    I have 2 other trades I could do pre draft;

    1- trade for Hiura and keep at rd 13

    2 – trade a keeper slot and get a round 1 pick which would see Stanton, Bryant, Altuve, Springer available at that stage of our draft (lots of keepers in the higher ranks…)

    I’m feeling stacked now and perhaps Hiura is the better option here, I’ll also be able to keep all these guys except Trea in 2021 too.

    Advise me oh wise Son.

    • Son

      Son says:
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      Who are you giving up for Hiura?

      I’m not crazy about any of those guys. Maybe Springer. Who are the available keepers?

      • Sweet Panther says:
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        I’m trading my rd 7 pick for Hiura and a rd 13 pick.

        Long term, better indeed, Hiura likely more durable too right ?

        Also, I’m tossing up Corbin at rd 16 with Glasnow at rd 11, long term outlook ?

        Thx

        • Son

          Son says:
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          Damn. Why is Hiura so cheap?

          I like both pitchers, but Corbin is getting up there in age

          • Sweet Panther says:
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            Hiura wasnt drafted last year, we have a rule if you add him as a FAAB waiver claim, you can keep at rd 13.

            I think I will be competitive with this and set for the future:

            Turner – cant keep next year
            Soto
            Bryce
            Hiura
            Tatis Jr
            Gary Sanchez
            —–
            Sale
            Glasnow (drop / trade Corbin)
            Clevinger

            your blessings to proceed?

            • Son

              Son says:
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              Go forth, Sweet Panther

              In the name of the Father, the SON, and the Holy Spirit

              • Sweet Panther says:
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                The trilogy…..I’m blessed indeed

                Appreciate your thoughts on this

                • Son

                  Son says:
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                  Anytime!

      • Sweet Panther says:
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        For consideration, we also have a small minor-league roster, I have , Mackay, Kopech, Whitley, so I figure my pitching will be solid for sometime.

        Maybe accept the risk on Glasnow this year and the potential to be an Ace soon opposed to Corbins solid, reliable numbers ?

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