I was famished. I had just written 10,000 words on why this column is named Bear or Bull. The joints in my fingers were popping due to the self-induced arthritis. I was staring at the computer monitor so long that my glasses absorbed so much light that oncoming drivers became disoriented as I screwed with their depth perception while walking on the sidewalk. As I opened the door to my local Mexican restaurant, the intoxicating smell transformed me into Pepe Le Pew as I floated to the front counter. Wolfing the tacos down, I thought to myself, “This is heaven. I’ve never tasted anything so delicious in my life before,” even though I had been there last Friday, and the Friday before, and the Friday before that, and every Friday for the past two years. Sometimes, things just hit the spot better or worse, depending on a confluence of factors. The same thing goes for fantasy baseball. Dylan Bundy was great in 65.2 innings last season during his first season with the Angels. This year? Not so good. He’s the 629th player on the Razzball Player Rater and has been dropped in 16.7% of ESPN leagues.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey told you to buy Harrison Bader last week. Listen to Grey and emulate him. It’s been a good strategy for me over the years. When I first became a reader of Razzball, Saves Ain’t Got No Face became a mantra and way of life. Not only did it help me navigate the relief pitcher market but I’d go to the club and the success rate exploded exponentially. When I first started writing for Razzball, I had no voice. I wasn’t a professional writer and there was much apprehension. Then I just emulated Grey. I think it’s worked out okay because I haven’t gotten fired yet and the editors still ask me to write pieces. See? I don’t just write bullshit. I live what I write. Alright, back to Bader. I was scrolling through the ESPN add/drops and he was added in 12.4% of leagues, but he’s still only rostered by 16.9% of owners. I wanted to dig in a little closer on my HarriSON.
Please, blog, may I have some more?It’s a story as old as time itself. Boy sees prospect. Boy sees prospect’s father is a Hall of Famer. Prospect double-doubles in the minors. Boy falls in love. Boy wants to get married. Prospect, who has grown into a major leaguer breaks boys heart. Boy’s life is now in disarray. Cavan Biggio of the Toronto Blue Jays has had a rough start to the season, causing much distress in the fantasy streets. Is it time to move on or ’till death do us part?
Biggio was selected in the fifth round of the 2016 MLB draft by the Toronto Blue Jays.
He didn’t exhibit any power in his first year but the walk and strikeout rates were very good. In his second season, he went 11/11 in 556 plate appearances. The strikeout rate ticked up to 25.2% and the walk rate was 13.3%, but the batting average was a meh .233. When he went up to Double-A in 2018, the strikeout rate ticked up to 26.3% but so did the ISO to .247. He went 26/20 in 563 plate appearances and wedding bells were ringing all across the land.
Please, blog, may I have some more?I got a text from Grey the other day. He said to meet him in Hollywood because someone offered him a lifetime supply of boba. He was skeptical of course but that .00001% chance intrigued him. I get it. It’s why I always reply to that Prince in Nigeria. Anyways, as we sat down to meet our mystery man, someone lept from behind the conveniently sized and positioned plant and tried to rub Grey’s mustache. When angered, Bruce Banner morphs into the Hulk. In a similar vein, Grey turned into seven-foot anime Grey and went POW! BLAP! SOK! BIF! BAM! like in the 60s Batman shows. The power. The ferocity. I was flabbergasted like the first time I discovered pubic hair. A similar display of power has been experienced by fans of the Cleveland Indians recently. LuPLOW. LuPLOW. LuPLOW. LuPLOW. LuPLOW. LuPLOW. Jordan Luplow has six dingers on the season and has been added in 18% of ESPN leagues. Is there anything here?
Please, blog, may I have some more?
One Man’s Trash: The Next Randy Arozarena?
April 22, 2021 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball | 38 Commentsby: Son
“He has the package. If we are able to tap into that, watch out. He could be the next [Randy] Arozarena” – Luis Ortiz, hitting coach for the Texas Rangers
That’s high praise but is he in the best shape of his life? When are they not? So, who is this player that has the potential to help power a team to the World Series? I’m trying to make you move up to the edge of your seat, sweat in anticipation of the big reveal but who am I kidding? Most will just gloss over these words and gravitate to the bolded letters. Ah, such is the life of a fantasy blogger. Just writing words into the vast void of the internet, never to be consumed by 99% of the masses. Hi, mom! So Adolis Garcia has hit two home runs in 29 plate appearances. He’s been batting cleanup at times for the Rangers. Can he be the next Arozarena? Let’s dig in and find out.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Oh my my my. I’m felling high. My voice is gone but I’m not alone. Too much “he ain’t real”. The world keeps turnin’. Oh what a day. What a day. What a day. Hits and homers manifest. With every passing game. If my belief were my wealth. Then I would be filthy rich. If I were made in his image. Then I’d be one sexy dude. Most analysts do not believe. Cuz they fear regression coming. Oh on and on and on and on. The hits keep coming like the morning dew. Whew on and on and on and on. All night until the break of dawn. I go on and on and on and on. The hits keep coming like the morning dew. Ooo on and on and on and on. God damn it. Imma sing his song.
Akil Baddoo has taken the league by storm in the early going. He’s racked up three home runs, nine RBI, and one stolen base in 21 plate appearances. There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical in terms of his staying power so should we automatically dismiss him? Or is there something here and will this Baddoo go on and on like Badu?
Baddoo is 22 years old, 6′ 1″, 210 pounds, and bats from the left side. He was drafted out of high school by the Twins in the 2016 MLB Draft. His first two seasons were spent in Rookie ball, where he improved the strikeout rate, ISO, and slash at each stop. The K% went from 28.1% to 15% then to 12.1%. The ISO went from .093 to .173 to .222. The average went from .178 to .267 to .357. Remember, that he was coming straight from high school so he was a 17-year-old kid that first year. The improvement trends are encouraging.
Please, blog, may I have some more? Bear or Bull: Is this Mercedes a Hoopty?
April 8, 2021 | 2021 Fantasy Baseball | 28 Commentsby: Son
I used to be a big car guy. I’d read and mental masturbate over the pictures and specifications of cars portrayed in Car and Driver and Motor Trend. In high school, many of my friends were into racing and fixing up cars. It was Fast and the Furious before Fast & Furious. I saw some insanely awesome cars. I also saw plenty of hoopties. The best, or worst, depending on perspective, were those cars that were all show and no go. You’d hear the deep muffle of an exhaust, see the shiny rims and body kit, but pop open the hood, and niet. Yermin Mercedes of the Chicago White Sox has gotten off to a blistering start, notching 12 hits in 19 plate appearances. Is this Mercedes really a hoopty or a geniune luxury product? Let’s dig in to see if we can unearth anything.
Please, blog, may I have some more? One Man’s Trash: Andrew Benintendi
April 1, 2021 | 2021 Fantasy Baseball, One Man's Trash | 12 Commentsby: Son
MLB The Show is THE greatest sports video game. To be fair, baseball is the easiest game to make due to the fundamental nature of baseball, which is essentially a one-on-one battle with cursory pieces in the background. Basketball, football, hockey, and soccer all have multiple players moving in synch simultaneously which increases the number of variables that need to be accounted for. Anyways, San Diego Studios has done a masterful job of putting the best product out there. This isn’t an ad for The Show, though, but it’s relevant for this post. In The Show, the X button is for a normal swing, the O button is for contact, and the square button is for power. But with great power comes great responsibility because while you can check your swing with the x and o buttons, it’s all or nothing with the square button. Now, I don’t use the square button much except in 2-0 or 3-0 counts. I prefer to just use the x button because even with the mashers, it’s more than enough to drive the ball out of the park. In my early days of playing, though, I used to utilize the square button with the contact guys in favorable counts. There would be a stretch when I’d bop some over the fence which would get me to start utilizing the square button with those hitters in other counts. Like Pookie from New Jack City, the more I hit out, the more my thumb moved to the left side of the controller. Even while the average and OBP declined, and the strikeouts increased, the adrenaline rush from connecting kept the gig going. Kind of like our debt-fueled economy, which is a separate topic for another day. This reminds me of Andrew Benintendi. He always showed some pop, so he wasn’t some Juan Pierre-esque slap hitter, but he was known more for his power/speed combo. But then he started sniffing the power and bulked up, gaining over 20 pounds of muscle, mashing that square button. The strikeouts increased while the average and overall production decreased. As a result, he is no longer in Boston. Trash or treasure?
Please, blog, may I have some more?The flowers were in full bloom. The air was gridlocked with pollen. The children were prancing in the fields looking for candy eggs. Rabbits were frolicking in the grass. As Pablo Escobar took in the sights and sounds, he turned to his wife, penetrated the atmosphere of her eyes, then proceeded to be a rabbit himself. The year was 1988. Escobar was now the richest man in the world, successfully guiding the Medellin Cartel to an entity of extraordinary magnitude for 12 years. He tried to enter the political sphere in Columbia but kept getting rebuffed. The authorities from both his homeland and gringos from the north kept hunting him, pushing for his arrest. Pablo, ever the power-hungry animal that he was, searched for another way to cement his legacy. He needed to diversify. On that April day, bringing a third Escobar into the world was the only viable solution. He would nurture him, groom him, and show him the ways so that one day he could exhibit the power as he had, prolonging the Escobar reign. Unfortunately, Pablo moved on from this world in 1993, cutting the tutelage short. After years of work, sweat, and pain, the child consummated on that April Day, Eduardo Escobar, delivered the power and fulfilled his dad’s vision as he clubbed 35 homers with 94 runs and 118 RBI in 699 plate appearances during the 2019 MLB season. Like father like son, though, the world came crashing down swiftly. In Eduardo’s case, it was the following year. Is there hope for Eduardo for this season, or will he be just a footnote in the history books?
Please, blog, may I have some more?The crack of the bat when barrelled, the smell of my significant other (why am I craving Korean BBQ all of a sudden? I kid, I kid), watching a 6-4-3 double play being turned, and hugging the kids. These are all definitions of perfection. At least to me. They could be another person’s worst nightmare, hence the concept that perfection does not truly exist. It is but an abstraction of our minds. Now, there are things that are closer to perfection than others, but nothing can truly be perfect. We just decide what is and isn’t important. For fantasy baseball, those drafted in the first round are deemed as closest to perfection because of their elite production and having fewer flaws than the others. As you venture deeper into a draft, the imperfections rise like a pimple that hasn’t been cleaned for a few days. Some of those warts are deemed worse than others, which provides value and opportunities to be mined. Raimel Tapia of the Colorado Rockies is being drafted as the 231st overall player and 60th outfielder in NFBC drafts. There’s a reason why I’m writing him up. Let’s see if he’s treasure or trash.
Please, blog, may I have some more?We all have different conceptions of what is/isn’t gross. I hate mayonnaise. It’s the most disgusting thing and the mere sight of it makes me want to puke. Mustard too. I can deal with ketchup, but sometimes it makes me gag as well. I know, I’m a freaking weirdo. I don’t care. I don’t care. Grossness is triggered by any of the senses. Some can’t stand the sight of toe jam, while others cringe at the sound of nails scraping a blackboard. Smell can make one float in the air like Pepe Le Pew or barf like Stewie Griffin. I traveled to Hong Kong many years ago with my wife and one day she brought a bag of durian into the hotel room. Once she opened the bag, the smell. The god-awful smell permeated the entire room. It was straight-up chemical warfare. I keeled over into a fetal position, put a pillow over my head, and held my breath. I would rather die than smell another whiff of that fruit. Then my wife kicked my balls and inserted a piece of durian into my mouth. O. M. G. Heaven. Bliss. Which brings me to Robbie Grossman of the Detroit Tigers. He looks like shit and probably smells like shit after playing nine innings, but is there some savory sweetness for fantasy that can induce a chef’s kiss?
Please, blog, may I have some more?I used to trade stocks for a living. I started out as a market maker for NASDAQ stocks right before the internet bubble then traded my own account for over 10 years. After the kids were born, I transitioned from day trading to more longer-term, position trading. With the recent euphoric market, the day trading hat is back on. With that said, there are so many things I’ve learned from trading, mostly about human psychology but that’s a discussion for another day. The one tenet that became very important for me was price discovery. Where were buyers and sellers willing to transact and at what price would there be an equilibrium. You can glean a ton of information from watching the action and identify spots of support and resistance, which I used to limit risk. If buyers were no longer willing to support a stock at a certain price, then something has changed and it’s best to get flat and reassess. Vice versa on the sell side. The closer I could buy or sell to these spots, the more information I would have and the easier I’d be able to identify if I was wrong, saving me money in the long run because all trades are not winners. For example, say a stock was trading in the $10 to $12 range. After watching the action, buyers would always step in at $10 and sell at $12. So, buy at $10 and sell at $12, right? I wouldn’t want to buy at $12 because I know sellers are stepping in there, so what’s the point? If the price broke through $10, then I’d know it’s probably going lower and if it went through $12 then it’s probably going higher. In that scenario, I don’t mind paying over $12 once I got confirmation that the sellers there were cleaned out. The bigger the sample size the better the information. This is a simplistic example but you get the point.
Please, blog, may I have some more?