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MattTruss

Author: MattTruss

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MattTruss

DraftKings: Friar Struck(out)

May 6, 2016 | DraftKings, Fantasy Baseball DFS | 41 Comments

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Contrary to what I previously believed, the San Diego chicken is not in fact the mascot for the Padres. That dubious honor goes to “The Swinging Friar”. What he’s swinging, we don’t really know, but we do know he’s swinging…and missing…a lot. In fact, there’s only one other team that is striking out more than the Padres. The numbers are darn near video game level. A really easy video game though, not like World Championship Baseball, that shizz was darn near impossible. Vince Velasquez went for 16, Clayton Kershaw went for 14 (and 9), Cueto went for 11, and Jon Gray got 11 Pads. Multiple other pitchers have K’d 9 Padres in a night as well. It’s ugly. So, tonight we’ve got Noah Syndergaard taking the mound, he of the 12.25 K/9 and 2.51 ERA. The scary thing is, he could be even better, his FIP is sitting at a tidy 1.39 and his xFIP is a wonderful 1.79. *Drool* How do I not own this guy in any leagues this year? Brutal. Things shouldn’t get any worse in Petco Park. I don’t need to blab about how amazing Syndergaard is, but I will. A stat I love to look at is SwStr%, or the % of strikes a batter swings at and misses. Noah’s 15.9% currently leads the league. He’s throwing strikes and guys still can’t touch it. Could be that 97.6 MPH average fastball. I also like a pitcher that can get a batter to chase a bad pitch. Even if they get ahold of it, it’s usually weak contact, so making a guy chase a pitch is a nice skill to have. Well, Syndergaard’s 36.6% O-swing %, or percentage of non-strikes swung at, is 2nd in the league behind only Zack Greinke. That would help explain why he has a soft contact % of 26%, good for 11th in the league. All of this is to say, he’s really, really good and the Padres are really, really bad. This is a no brainer top cash game option of the night, despite the lofty price tag ($12,900). Don’t overthink it and just watch those K’s pile up. Let’s see if we can make our bankrolls pile up with the rest of these picks:

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

RCL Update: The Week That Was, Week 4

May 3, 2016 | Our Leagues, Razzball Commenters League | 18 Comments

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What a week week 4 was, especially for those RCLers who drafted Dee Gordon.  Gordon had an ADP of 21.35 for our RCLs and never made it past the middle of the third round in any RCL draft.  What a rude thing to awaken to Saturday morning.  Sleeping off that Friday night fun, Gordon owners woke around noon on Saturday to see their (possibly) lone source of stolen bases will be out for half a season.  So what is an RCLer to do?  With the inability to DL him, you’re either forced to drop him, or let him burn a very valuable roster spot for 3 months.  I highly doubt anyone would trade anything of value for him at this point.  When he does come back will he be rusty?  Will he be PED free and back to hitting just above the Mendoza line?  How many bases can he steal in the final 60 games and will that be worth the wasted roster spot?  The way I turn and burn my roster, I say absolutely not.  Give me Rajai Davis on days he plays and the streaming middle infield of Alcides Escobar, Danny Santana and Jonathan Villar to make up the difference and let someone else be hogtied with Dee for half the year.  It’s a darn shame that a batting title is now tainted over this, but there’s really hardly any downside for Dee here.  He got paid, a guaranteed contract, and that’s worth whatever shade is thrown his way now.  Sure, he loses about 5 million of that contract to the suspension, but that’s hardly a deterrent when there’s another 45 million that’s all but in the bank.  It’s too bad and it’s also too bad that not a peep of this was known about before now.  Dee allegedly tested positive during spring training.  If any hint of that had leaked, at least fantasy drafters would have something to go on and possibly avoid him.  Instead, they’re left high and dry.  This is a pretty big suspension for league dynamics everywhere and I wouldn’t be surprised if the likes of Billy Hamilton and Jarod Dyson are traded for a premium over the next couple weeks.  Here’s what else happened in the RCLs this in the week that was, week 4:

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MattTruss

DraftKings: #LATOS

April 30, 2016 | DraftKings, Fantasy Baseball DFS | 4 Comments

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If you happen to be a non-millennial reading this then you remember a time when # meant “Pound” and didn’t mean “Hashtag”.  If you are a millennial you’ve likely already skipped this intro and skimmed the rest of the picks.  After all, you’re entitled to win at DFS with minimal research and time invested.  The DFS sites owe it to you, just like your boss owes it to you to give you that raise despite the fact you don’t actually do any work all day.  We’ll be using the pound sign today to discuss how the O’s are going to # on Mat Latos this evening.  I’ve had issues with Latos for some time, I mean, what self-respecting Matt goes by Mat anyway?  This year though, the issues with Latos are greater than ever.  This guy has the nerve to masquerade as an ace with his sub 1 ERA and WHIP.  We here at Razzball aren’t fooled however.  We see the real numbers under those fraudulent ones and we are ready to pounce.  The 4.8 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 tell the real story, as does his 3.56 FIP.  The regression fairies are just dying to pay Latos a visit, right after they finish cutting off all their jeans into shorts for the summer.  I, for one, want to be there when this correction happens, and not just for the cut off jean shorts.  Chris Davis will be heavily owned but if Pedro Alvarez finds his way into the lineup tonight, he might be an under the radar play that could pay handsome dividends.  The Orioles don’t have much else in the way of lefty batters however Mat Latos hasn’t really shown a dramatic platoon split in his career, so just load up on every O you can get your salary cap around and enjoy the #ing.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

RCL Update: The Week That Was, Week 3

April 26, 2016 | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers, Our Leagues, Razzball Commenters League | 60 Comments

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Three weeks in and I’m sure there’s some of you out there pressing as much as Carlos Gomez right now.  Is it too soon to be worried that you’re falling behind in stolen bases?  Probably not, but after next week we’ll be at a good point to stop and assess our teams as well as start scouring for trades to address whatever weaknesses we find.  Or, to quote fellow leaguemate and frequent commenter MauledByPandas, “One more week until we can hit the (Joe) Panik button right?”.  That’s about right I’d say.  It’s still early folks and there’s no reason to be dropping a guy like Carlos Gomez or doing anything else crazy just yet.  

Misery loves company and there’s plenty of misery with aces at the moment.  Matt Harvey, David Price, Zack Greinke and Chris Archer have all had rough starts, leaving those that waited on starting pitching to giggle to themselves.  Now Carlos Carrasco is down for 4-6 weeks and there’s RCL teams everywhere looking for a shoulder to cry on.  Hang tough Razzballer, there’s plenty of fish in the stream for the next few weeks.  In the meantime, form up your prayer octagons that both Carloses (Carlii?) will be alright by June and come check out the week that was in the RCLs.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: That’s Screwy

April 23, 2016 | DraftKings, Fantasy Baseball DFS | 3 Comments

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I’m fascinated by things that are outside of the box and things that challenge what is considered the “norm”.  A good knuckleballer is a joy to watch.  Trevor Bauer and his pregame routine and training regime is so intriguing.  I wish he’d have some success so people might take it a little more seriously.  Basically, it’s no fun doing things the exact same way every, single time and there’s no way to evolve and learn if we don’t try something new.  In this same vein, we have Hector Santiago, the only pitcher in the major leagues to throw a screwball last year.  He will also probably be the only pitcher to throw one in the majors this season.  This pitch was very popular back in the early days of baseball but has since become almost entirely extinct due to the threat of injury it possess.  I get it, but you’d think if you’re the only pitcher throwing a pitch that funky in MLB, you’d have an advantage.  Well, Mr. Santiago is having himself a year so far in the early going, but I’m not so sure it’s screwball related.  Santiago has raised his K/9 from 8.07 last year to 8.71 so far this year and he’s lowered his BB/9 from 3.54 to 2.61.  Also of note is the 2 MPH he’s added to his fastball.  Early jumps in fastball velocity are typically a great sign that a pitcher’s early season success might be more than just a fluke.  Another sign that something has changed for Santiago is the change in GB/FB ratio.  Santiago has typically been an extreme flyball pitcher, which wasn’t always wonderful in US Cellular field.  His flyball percentage is still high-ish, but it’s dropped from an average of 48% for his career to 44% this year.  The big change though is in his ground ball percentage which has jumped from his career average of 33% up to 47% so far this year.  That has lead his GB/FB to jump from a career norm of 0.7 to over 1.0.  So, we’ve got a pitcher with increased fastball velocity, with better control and who’s inducing more grounders.  Did I mention he’ll be facing the Mariners where he’ll have the platoon advantage against just about everyone outside of Nelson Cruz?  At $8,400 he’s the perfect compliment to Jose Fernandez for the night slate.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

RCL Update: The Week That Was, Week 2

April 19, 2016 | Our Leagues | 5 Comments

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I hope everyone had a fun second week.  There was some good, like Mark Trumbo going double dong in one inning.  There was also some bad, like whatever it is Matt Harvey is doing.  Trevor Story didn’t hit a homer every single day this week, easing the pain for those of us that don’t own this middle infield monster.  Everyone can breathe a sigh of relief as just about everyone that should have a home run has hit one by now, even Mike Trout!

It’s the silly season for our leagues at this point  We can see huge swings in the standings based on 2-3 good days of stats.  We have a new top team on the RCL leaderboard and they had one of those silly gains to get there, gaining 25 points in 7 days time.  Not bad for a frequent commenter, occasional contributor and long time Razzballer.  Despite that enormous gain, they aren’t even this week’s team of the week.  I’m sure the suspense is killing you, so come on down after the jump and check out the week that was…

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: The White Whale

April 15, 2016 | DraftKings, Fantasy Baseball DFS | 4 Comments

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That’s what we’re all chasing here, right?  The White Whale.  We’re all obsessing over this silly little game in the hopes of hitting that four…five…six figure payday.  We pour over stats from wOBA to z-swing % and everything in between hoping to glean some hidden gem that gives us an edge over the rest of the field.  I can only imagine the number of hours I’ve put into looking at match-ups, fiddling with lineups, checking the weather, checking Twitter and pondering game theory.  Well, tonight will be no different.  Friday nights are one of my favorite nights to play DFS.  It’s always a full or nearly full slate, game times are typically 7 EST and all the 10 EST lineups are out by the time lineups are due.  Tonight is no different, and tonight, I’m looking to clobber Tim Melville.  You’re darn tootin’ I went with a Moby Dick reference on a night I’m stacking against Melville.  If you caught that before this point in the paragraph, give yourself a hearty pat on the back for reading a book or two. This call doesn’t take a lot of pondering.  Tim Melville’s AAA numbers last year were a lovely 4.63 ERA with a 6.1 K/9 and a 4.0 BB/9.  You know how Grey uses K-rate minus BB-rate to determine how good a pitcher is real quick?  10 K/9 – 3 BB/9 = 7 = Borderline ace = Chicken diner, or something like that.  Quick math gives us Tim Melville’s difference of 2.1.  If a difference of 7 is a borderline ace, a difference of 2 is a borderline “doesn’t belong in the major leagues”.  All of your Cardinal batters are in play, righties and lefties alike.  Melville was equally generous to both handed batters in the minor leagues.  So, stack ‘em up, hope they hit and let’s see what else can find to help you catch your whale tonight.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

RCL Update: The Week That Was, Week 1

April 12, 2016 | Our Leagues, Razzball Commenters League | 22 Comments

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What an opening week.  It’s so great to have baseball back and to be back to the RCL grind.  Are you slugging your way to the top of your league via Trevor Story?  Maybe you’ve Edinson Volquez’d yourself to the front of the pack instead.  Either way, I hope your roto points floweth over.  Kyle Schwarber owners, (I had 1 share just for SsNGs) I send my condolences.  Mike Trout and Zack Greinke owners, the support group meeting is tonight at 7 in the basement of the town library.  I’ll bring the Cracker Jack, you bring the Big League Chew and we’ll have a prayer octagon.  

Already the RCL battle has been waged on the waiver wire as the race to grab the top up and coming prospects is in full sprint.  In just the first week we’ve seen Max Kepler, Mallex Smith and the top prize, Nomar Mazara all called up to the show.  Kepler is yet to crack the lineup, but 4 teams have decided to make the stash.  52 teams are hoping Mallex Smith can give them some sweet, sweet SAGNOF.  So far, there’s just been a hit, a run and a caught stealing that ended in a nasty forehead gash, but the speed is real.  Then there’s Mazara, who made his presence felt ASAP with a dinger (1 more than Mike Trout!) in his first game.  As of Monday morning he was scooped up in 84 of 85 leagues.  The 85th league is 12 Matthew Berrys running Razzball recon, so they hardly count.  This year’s rookie class has a lot to live up to after last year’s rookie nookie, but they’re getting and early jump.  Speaking of jumps, let’s take a look at which RCL teams are getting early jumps on their league standings:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: Making a Blash at Coors

April 8, 2016 | DraftKings, Fantasy Baseball DFS | 14 Comments

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It feels so good to be back in the DFS saddle, does it not? I don’t know about you, but I’ve been taking it easy this first week. This week has been full of weird start times, random lineup decisions and even a snow out for Pete’s sake! SNOW! With a near full slate today, though, it’s a fine time to jump on in. It’s appropriate there’s a game at Coors today too, since I’m a big Coors stacker. Today will be no different and for those choosing to play the all day or 4 o’clock start time I would like to turn your attention to Jabari Blash. Blash was in the Mariners system for some time and was left exposed to the Rule 5 draft after bashing 32 HRs across two minor league levels last year. The A’s snagged him, traded him to San Diego and now here we are. You may not have heard of Blash, so here’s the 3 second scouting report. Blash can mash. Need more? Well, he doesn’t hit for average and he strikes out a lot, but that power! A little deeper dive shows us a .305 ISO last year in the minors, part of that was in the PCL, but still, the power is legit. Do you know what scores a lot of points in DraftKings games? Home runs, that’s what. Do you know what doesn’t count against batters in the DraftKings games? Strikeouts. Blash in Coors, even for the elevated price tag of $4,000 is worth a shot. Check the lineup and if he’s in, jump all over the somewhat unknown masher and reap the rewards. Let’s see what other picks we can unearth for the Friday slate.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

Razzball Guide to MLB DFS Twitter

April 7, 2016 | Fantasy Baseball DFS | 23 Comments

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You guys and five girls are what makes the Razzball community great.  Case in point, I’ve gotten countless ideas for articles based on feedback, comments, questions and general conversation with you all.  It really is my favorite part of this site.  One such idea came up when a commenter got a hold of me and asked me who they should be following on Twitter.  Let’s take a quick step back, you should absolutely use Twitter to enhance your DFS game.  Heck, if you’re a fan of baseball and have a smartphone, there’s no reason to not follow most of this list below.  That goes for DFS players and non DFS players alike.  There is no faster news source for lineups, weather, late scratches or other breaking stories out there.  I love what Twitter has done for the game, it’s an ideal pairing I think.  I almost always have my laptop open with Twitter up while I’m watching games.  

The thing with Twitter though is you have to be following the right people to make it worth your while.  I gave the commenter a blanket statement on who to follow, but it gave me an idea to just write an article on the subject.  So, here we have the MattTruss guide to DFS Twitter.  I’ve broken this up into different categories, so pick and chose, or follow them all, it’s your choice.  I hope this helps, I know it’s been an invaluable tool for me.  If nothing else, maybe it’ll save you an hour or so of Googling.  Also, if there is someone I missed that you enjoy following, please add them in the comments.  Sharing is caring and, back to come full circle, is what makes @Razzball awesome!

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

RCL Update, Week 1: 85 Leagues Under The Razz

April 5, 2016 | Our Leagues | 26 Comments

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That’s a wrap on the 2016 Razzball Commenters League fantasy baseball draft season.  You can close out of spreadsheets and stop worrying about whether or not you should handcuff Ken Giles with Luke Gregerson (Yes, yes you should have).  What’s done is done and now it’s time to prep for the daily grind that is an RCL league.  So, grab your caffeine ingestion method of choice and start researching tomorrow’s batty calls.  

This week, we’re going to take a look at all the draft data that all of you contributed to our leagues.  We span from drafts the morning of February 28th all the way until this past Sunday afternoon.  That’s just over a month of draft data to break down, dissect and tear apart.  Next week, we’ll be able to focus things on you all as we’ll have a week’s worth of stats to ponder.  Without further ado, let’s dig into how the RCLers drafted this year.

First of all, here is the ADP spreadsheet, all finalized for your viewing pleasure.  Feel free to keep that open as you read along…

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

RCL Update: The Sutherland Loophole

March 30, 2016 | Our Leagues | 27 Comments

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We are now so close Opening Day that I can taste it.  Cold beer, processed meat, and mustard, it doesn’t get much better than that.  This time next week we’ll all be in a full on panic over why our first round pick hasn’t hit a HR in the first two games and how we can possibly be in last place with THIS team.  We’ll talk you off that ledge when the time comes.  However, this week I want to go over a few last tidbits before you dive into you RCL career.  I have one last note on the draft as well as a loophole you should know about and take advantage of.  These are the last couple of things I couldn’t cram into my other posts but I think are too important to just let go.  I’ll also be sharing the newest week’s worth of draft data with you.  We’ve had so many drafts the past week and we’re up to a total of 57 drafted leagues and counting.  Come check out the latest and greatest numbers as you prepare for the final draft weekend before shizz gets real.  We have RCL drafts going off all during the final weekend.  You can even create a last minute league like VinWins and I and draft over a cup o’ joe and a bowl of Cap’n Crunch at 7 AM EST Saturday morning.  Doesn’t that sound like fun?  So go on, go create a league and/or fill one that needs filling.  This post will still be here when you get back and then we can talk about your upcoming draft.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
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