If you happen to be a non-millennial reading this, you remember a time when # meant “Pound” and didn’t mean “Hashtag”. If you are a millennial you’ve likely already skipped this intro and skimmed the rest of the picks. After all, you’re entitled to win at DFS with minimal research and time invested. The DFS sites owe it to you, just like your boss owes it to you to give you that raise despite the fact you don’t actually do any work all day. We’ll be using the pound sign today to discuss how the O’s are going to # on Mat Latos this evening. I’ve had issues with Latos for some time, I mean, what self-respecting Matt goes by Mat anyway? This year though, the issues with Latos are greater than ever. This guy has the nerve to masquerade as an ace with his sub 1 ERA and WHIP. We here at Razzball aren’t fooled however. We see the real numbers under those fraudulent ones and we are ready to pounce. The 4.8 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 tell the real story, as does his 3.56 FIP. The regression fairies are just dying to pay Latos a visit, right after they finish cutting off all their jeans into shorts for the summer. I, for one, want to be there when this correction happens, and not just for the cut off jean shorts. Chris Davis will be heavily owned but if Pedro Alvarez finds his way into the lineup tonight, he might be an under the radar play that could pay handsome dividends. The Orioles don’t have much else in the way of lefty batters. However, Mat Latos hasn’t really shown a dramatic platoon split in his career, so just load up on every O you can get your salary cap around and enjoy the #ing.
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Zack Greinke, SP: $9,200 – I’m not ready to throw the towel in on Greinke just yet, although he is trying my patience. Besides a trip to Petco, the next best thing to curing a pitcher’s woes is getting the Rockies on the road. I like Greinke here for a reduced price that might outproduce those aces more expensive than him.
Kevin Gausman, SP: $7,500 – It only makes sense that while Mat Latos is getting #’d on Kevin Gausman should be cruising to an easy win. It’s not just the run support he’ll have going for him though, the Gas Man looked great his first time out this year and should keep those Ks coming tonight.
Ross Stripling, SP: $6,300 – This is more about the opponent than the player. Not to say Stripling is a slouch, but boy are the Padres bad. When facing right-handed pitching they have the worst team wOBA this year, worse than the Braves even! A cheap pitcher with a great match-up like this makes roster construction a lot easier and opens up a lot of options.
Chris Devenski, SP: $5,000 – Speaking of cheap starters, for those playing the day slate I’d encourage you to take a shot on Devenski. For $5,000 he doesn’t have to do a whole lot to return value and I think there’s some upside for more here. Devenski has been working in long relief, so he’s plenty stretched out and was a starter in AAA to start the year. I watched his relief appearance against the Red Sox this past Sunday and the guy is a total bull dog. He has an odd finish to his delivery, falling way towards first base and providing what has to be a unique look to batters. I saw good movement on his pitches and a guy going right after batters. The A’s just made Anibal Sanchez look like a relevant pitcher and I think it’s worth the dice roll to run Devenski out there.
Salvador Perez, C: $2,800 – Stop me if you heard me say this before, but Sal Perez should not be cheaper than Austin Barnes. Until DraftKings gets this price right, keep rostering him and reaping the benefits.
John Jaso, 1B: $3,300 – Jingle Heimer Schmidt will likely be taking his normal spot at the top of the order vs. a righty tonight. I’ll be looking to add Pirates wherever I don’t have Orioles as they take on Simon and his 16+ ERA. Jaso won’t hit for power, but at this price tag he should get on base enough and score enough runs to easily return value.
Hanley Ramirez, 1B: $3,900 – Remember Hanley’s crazy April last year? That seems like so long ago. It’s amazing that this year he’s not taking more slack for his lack of offense. I wonder if it has to do with his playing a semi-decent first base? There’s still a good hitter hidden there somewhere and with Pineda looking like hot garbage to start the year, I’ll take a shot that Hanley wakes up his bat tonight.
Josh Harrison, 2B: $3,800 – Yar, second base be a barren wasteland matey. Oh, apologies, I was just getting a little worked up talking about all the Pirates I want to roster tonight. Like Jaso, Harrison won’t hit for much power, but all he does is get on base. That pays the bills too.
Brandon Phillips, 2B: $3,000 – I think Phillips’ injury drove his price down a bit, but he’s back now and batting…clean-up. Holy Moly, Brandon Phillips is the Reds clean-up hitter. Let that sink in. OK, stop sinking and go click a 3K clean-up hitter into your lineup.
Yunel Escobar, 3B: $3,300 – Yet another guy that won’t hit for a ton of power, but will fill the scorecard none the less. Yunel has been on fire to start the year and shouldn’t slow down tonight. The Angels @ Rangers game has the highest over/under on the day at 9 runs. Getting in on a cheap leadoff man in a game like that is a winning decision.
Maikel Franco, 3B: $3,600 – Finally, we’ve got a power source! Trevor Bauer has had a lot of trouble with the long ball, it’s most often been his undoing. I’m sure Maikel would love to help him come undone again tonight. At this very reasonable price I’m going to find it hard not to roster Maikel.
J.J. Hardy, SS: $3,000 – Let’s go with back to back power sources, we’re on a roll now. Hardy isn’t the middle infield beast he once was, but Latos might help him relive the glory days. Shortstop is a pretty brutal spot tonight. It’s either you are paying up for one of the $3,900 elite options, or dumpster diving. Hardy is coming out of the dumpster to whallop a HR or two.
Mike Trout, OF: $5,200 – This is where I’m paying up tonight, in the outfield. Trout’s ownership might be down since he hasn’t been his completely Trout-like self to start the year. I’m hoping to catch people sleeping on him while paying the price tag and waiting for that 2 HR, 1 SB game to come along.
Mookie Betts, OF: $5,000 – My man crush gets to lead the charge tonight in what could be another ugly outing for Pineda. Come throw some gasoline on this dumpster fire, it will be fun! Also, despite only facing him 12 times, Betts has already taken Pineda deep twice.
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF: $4,100 – Let’s wrap this up with the BvP play of the night. Rick Porcello has looked pretty good the last couple starts, but I’m not sure anyone expects that to continue forever. In 25 ABs vs. Porcello Ells has hit 4 HRs and stolen 2 bags while batting .480. If we get bad Rick tonight, Ellsbury should be in for a nice night.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The Cubs should just cancel their game right now, there’s zero chance that game plays. Avoid the whole mess and hope they call it early. Pittsburgh is another major weather concern with rain likely all during game time. This makes me depressed. With any luck the storm will get pushed back and hold off for the game, but that’s looking unlikely. The Nationals at St. Louis game has a lot of wet stuff lurking as well. However, there does look like there could be a window where this game plays just fine. You’ll have to be a weather-watcher on this one.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Francisco Liriano and the Pirates are the biggest favorite on the day at -200. After that is Jacob deGrom and the Mets at a -180. That game also has the benefit of a having the lowest over/under of the day at 7. It shares this honor with the Nats @ Cardinals game (Ross @ Garcia) and Toronto @ Tampa Bay (Happ @ Archer). The highest over/under belongs to The Angels and Rangers, as mentioned in the Escobar blurb. Load ‘em up along with your Orioles for a night of offensive fireworks.
