While much of the fantasy baseball world has their eyes focused on the Queen City and their exciting group of young players, there’s another youth movement going on in the Southwest that’s worth a closer look.
Led by the current favorite for NL ROY, Corbin Carroll, and Zac Gallen at the top of the rotation, the Arizona Diamondbacks are turning heads across the league with their style of play. As I pen this, the D-Backs are perched on top of the West standings, 2 games up on the Dodgers, 4.5 games up on the Giants, and 7.5 games up on the Padres. They also find themselves only 2 games behind the Braves for the NL’s best record.
Prior to the season, not many across the industry predicted the D-Backs to be in this position in mid-June but here they are. In April and May, many of the non-believers try to justify what our eyes are seeing with statements like, “the season is a marathon, not a sprint…” or “they don’t have the players to compete with the Dodgers or Padres.” Now that we’re well into June, those arguments are starting to lose their luster.
The questions to ponder today: How are the D-Backs racking up the wins and do the numbers suggest this team has the staying power to make a legitimate playoff push?
Let’s start with the offense:
As of June 15, the D-Backs rank in the top 5 across MLB in vast majority of the categories we track here at Analytics Anonymous, including R (4th), RBI (4th), SB (5th), AVE (3rd), SLG (5th), OPS (5th), K% (3rd), SB% (5th), Contact % (2nd), and SwStr % (1st). On its own merits, this is an impressive achievement so far. How does this compare to their division rivals?
The Dodgers outpace the snakes in the power categories but taken as a whole, the D-Backs offense is solid in virtually every phase of the game. The offense is constructed in a way to put players on base, move them up and drive them in. With this type of offensive makeup, you generally don’t see the hot/cold spells typical of HR-dependent teams. It also goes a long way in explaining the team success to date and suggests these offensive rankings are not a fluke.
Let’s shift to the pitching:
The D-Backs pitching rankings are not as rosy as the offensive numbers.
If there’s going to be an Achilles Heel for this squad, you clearly see it right here. In general, the staff is struggling to get hitters out with a K/9 less than 1 per IP and a BABIP of an even .300. The team SIERA (4.32) is also below the MLB median (4.12). An analysis of the FIP (4.35) and ERA (4.44) indicates D-Back fans can have a little optimism for a positive correction but I’m not seeing much here to show a major turnaround on the horizon. If this team is going to make a serious run at the West title and deep into the playoffs, GM Mike Hazen needs to go shopping for arms.
Speaking of deals, the offseason acquisition of Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno is proving to be a good one for the D-Backs.
With 10 HRs, Gurriel Jr. is on pace to surpass his career high of 21 dingers. Through 57 games in his new digs, he’s enjoying his lowest K% and highest Contact %, Barrel %, and Hard Hit %.
In his first full season in the majors, Moreno looks to be growing more comfortable with big league pitching, to the tune of .279/.317/.364 across 53 games. Like Gurriel Jr., the move to the desert has translated into higher Barrel % and Hard Hit %. Carson Kelly’s recent return to the team gives the D-Backs a formidable 1-2 punch behind the plate.
Taking all this team data into perspective, it appears the D-Backs are primed to remain in the thick of the West and playoff race right through the summer. Like virtually all contenders, they need more arms, both starters and in the pen. A power bat off the bench wouldn’t be a bad thought either. Nevertheless, this team is for real and should be considered serious contenders to supplant the Dodgers and Padres in the West.
Unlike weeks past, I took a team-centric view of analytics this week to evaluate the surprising D-Backs. Like many, I wanted to evaluate for myself if we can put our trust in this team. I think we can and it will be exciting to watch them throughout the summer to see how they deal with this newfound team success.
Once again, thanks for traveling with me on this ride through the wonderful world of baseball analytics. As I always say, keep sifting through the number. That is where you find the gems.
Follow me on Twitter: @Derek_Favret.
Until next time, my friends!
