A Sabermetric Snapshot at 2020’s Rookie Hitters

1. Great post, Hobbs! I’ve been noticing Evan White. Hard to miss him when he’s been at top of Hard Hit %, and K%…Ks look out of norm for him, and just looks like he needs to fix his contact

   • Thanks, Grey. I definitely think there’s something there with White. Maybe not this year as time is running out, but I think he’ll evolve into strong starting option at 1B. He’s wicked good with the leather in addition to being a former top prospect, so he should have ample opportunity to fix his contact issues, like you say.

     • Yeah, think this year is just so screwy, can ignore it for him — thanks for your response!

2. Drafted White in my Keeper league this year and glad I did. Also thank you Grey for convincing me to keep him!

   • Hopefully you’ll get to see some usable dividends before long. But thanks for the read!

3. Thinking about you right now, man : )

   Great work here!

   Outstanding idea for the piece!!

   Might have to revisit my efforts to acquire White when my leagues open back up . . .

   • I almost just fainted off my couch.

     But thanks, Itch! Keep me posted on that White situation… always love chatting about dynasty deals.

4. Is there a min number of AB for this evaluation? Curious where hot-swinging Mountcastle ranks, if he meets the min requirements.

   Thanks

   • Mountcastle is one of the best ever, please put some respect on his name, Hobbs

   • Yes – minimum is 2.1 PA per team game, which is what Baseball Savant uses for their leaderboards. If Mountcastle qualified, here’s where he’d rank among the top 12.

     Average Exit Velo: 85.1 MPH (NR)
     Hard hit %: 38.8% (10th)
     Barrels/PA %: 7.4% (5th)

     For what it’s worth, I own Mountcastle in a 35-keeper dynasty, so I wouldn’t overreact to small sample size batted ball data when a player is delivering bottom-line results. Plus, he’s right there with Alec Bohm and Evan White in Barrels/PA %.

5. Do you like White over Solak for the last 3 weeks?

   14T keeper, obp

   Thanks

   • Tough to say as a three week sample size can be fluky as is, and arguably even more so this year. But I’ll go White just based on the metrics and fact that he’s heated up, hitting 296/.377/.593 with four homers his last 17 games.

6. This is a great read. I took over a dynasty team and it ‘s good to see some of the moves I’ve made pan out.

   Can we see how Nick Madrigal compares for shits and giggles?

   How about Jazz Chisholm?

   Thank you

   • Appreciate it, ashtray!

     Madrigal has an average exit velo of 85.6 MPH and a hard hit rate of 24.4 %, both of which would be unranked on these lists. According to Baseball Savant, he does not have a barrel yet in his MLB career — which means either he hasn’t hit a ball at least 98+ MPH, or he has and that batted ball didn’t fall within the necessary launch angle threshold.

     Chisholm:
     Avg. exit velo: 85.6 MPH (NR)
     Hard hit %: 25.0% (NR)
     Barrels/PA %: 6.3 (T7th with Kyle Lewis)

     • Correction:

       Chisholm’s Barrels/PA % is actually 3.8% — I made a mistake in calculating the first time around. That would tie him for 10th on this list.

       But with just 26 plate appearances, I wouldn’t put any stock into his batted ball data.

       • Thank you so much. I was looking at madrigal at fangraphs and saw that ISO and figured his statcast would be ugly

7. I’ve got Kyle Lewis in a dynasty league. Obviously nothing here jumps off the page for him, and it seemed like the general consensus earlier in the season was he was playing way over his head, but as he kept going and the K rate came down, this started to shift a bit. Wondering what you think his outlook is?

   Also curious about your thoughts on Gimenez, another dynasty guy of mine who seems to have outplayed expectations

   • Think Lewis is still playing a bit over what you should expect from him in a typical year, but he looks to be the type of hitter that might outperform this type of data through much of his career. Still, don’t expect .295/.368/.527 with 41 homers — which is his career to this point pro-rated to 162 games. Think he’s a smidgen below that in the BA dept. with about 60% of the homers.

     I haven’t watched much of Gimenez this year, but I wouldn’t get too excited about him. If he carves out a regular role in the starting lineup next year, then maybe. But I want to see that first, especially since he isn’t providing much pop (although the steals are sexy). For now, just enjoy those steals and wait to see what happens.

     • Appreciate your reply and your analysis. I’d be generally happy with that kind of output from Lewis going forward.

       One last question. What do you make of Dylan Carlson’s struggles? Just issues adjusting that should get better with more reps or something more concerning going on here?
       Thank you!

8. You and Itch have been life savers for me this season. In my dynasty, would you rather Side A) Grisham or B) Bohm and WittJr?

   • Glad we’ve been able to help!

     I would definitely take the Bohm/Witt side. Bohm is developing quickly into a starting fantasy asset and could achieve top 10 potential at his position as early as next season. Witt is the cherry on the top as one of the top prospects in the entire game. His bat is going to play at the MLB level.

     You can’t pass up a haul like that in a dynasty league.

     • Thanks

9. Hobbs!

   I’m late to the message party here but fantastic article. I’ve rebuilt my whole team for the future:

   Acuna
   Soto
   Yordan
   Julio R
   CJ Abrams
   Adell
   Alonso
   Ketel
   Rendon

   Would you deal Rendon for Bohm and a ton of draft picks? The Bohm owner is going for it this year and I’m out so the draft picks would accelerate my team build but would be additional equivalent to top 75-150 players or prospects (We keep 10 players). I also have the first pick overall next year and could get Torkelson who is slated to start at 3B. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

   Thanks,
   LG

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