Week 4 Fantasy Baseball Fact Or Fiction

“Fact or Fiction” aside for a moment, what the hell is going on with closers this year?? Unless your name is Mason Miller, every highly drafted RP is either shelved with an injury or blowing up fantasy ratios weekly. Jeff Hoffman is the most recent bad man to upset all of his managers with another blown game (at least it was not a save opportunity?).

I drafted Jhoan Duran over KYLE SCHWARBER in a Main Event league on the NFBC website and am currently kicking myself for it. In no logical league would I ever make a move like that, but the scarcity of the position and hounding of even spec closers on waivers made it necessary. I was even proven right in the draft with Cade Smith, Andres Munoz, and David Bednar selected between my 2nd rounder and 3rd rounder. Luckily, I ended up with the ever-trusty Hunter Brown as a reward for my due diligence…yippee.

Anyway, here is this week’s piece with old friends, new friends, and some players out of left field who may be fantasy relevant in 2026.

C Carson Kelly (CHC)

Carson Kelly is hitting the hell out of baseballs to start the 2026 season.  He is 31st in wOBA and 16th in xwOBA with a top-eight percentile hard-hit rate and top-fifth percentile average exit velocity. Kelly has more walks than strikeouts thus far, with two HR, nine runs, and 10 RBI.

Oddly, Kelly performed just as well, if not better, to start the 2025 MLB season! He was among the leaders in expected production in the first month after hitting seven HR and batting .360 between March and April. This resulted in an absurd 257 wRC+ in this span, with more than twice as many walks as strikeouts, 13 runs, and 21 RBI.

He posted these numbers through 67 PA, then hit just 10 HR through his next 354 PA throughout the season, while slashing .232/.299/.364. His start this year has only fueled a 176 wRC+.

Carson Kelly is a good-hitting catcher, but he is who he is at this point in his career. Ride the wave if you need a spot starter at C, but we have seen this sort of early-season production fizzle out before.

FICTION

1B Dominic Smith (ATL)

The Braves have cast a spell on Dom Smith. He is on fire through 16 games, with four HR, 10 runs, 16 RBI, and a .362/.380/.660 slashline. Smith has not hit this well since 2020’s COVID-shortened season. He posted a .316/.377/.616 slashline that year with 10 HR, 27 runs, and 42 RBI through 50 games.

Smith was a bat-first prospect who looked the part between 2019 and 2020, but has flatlined since. The Braves are known for having “devil magic” that gets their hitters right, and it may be in play. This is the best offense Smith has ever been a part of, along with the best home park for hitting.

Smith is in the top-20 qualified hitters in xwOBA and the top-10 for wOBA. There is no telling whether he will carry this success across a full season, but we have seen him hit like this before. Smith is worth the ride for 12+ team leagues in need of a spark for the next few weeks, if not months.

FACT (for now)

2B/OF Jeremiah Jackson (BAL)

No Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, Ryan Mountcastle, Tyler O’Neill, and Adley Rutschman? No problem. Jeremiah Jackson has taken full advantage of his recent boost in playing time with five HR, six runs, and 13 RBI since April 10.

The former second-round pick is playing for his third organization since 2023, but the Orioles are the only team to have called him to the majors (2025). Jackson’s five HR in a week are astounding, but even more so is the fact that he has no walks through 65 plate appearances this year.

He is not a special fielder, nor does he make enough regular contact to negate the plate discipline issue he possesses. This hot streak is just a hot streak. He will likely lose significant playing time in the coming weeks as Baltimore gets healthier and his production slows down.

FICTION

UT Marcell Ozuna (PIT)

Pirates fans across Pittsburgh let out a massive sigh of relief as their $12 million offseason investment in Marcell Ozuna is finally paying off. His stretch to begin this season was horrendous. He slashed .051/.159/.051 from March 26 to April 11 across 44 plate appearances. He had more walks than hits in this span, with no extra-base hits.

Nevertheless, Ozuna has two HR in the past three games, with three multi-hit games since Monday. His plate discipline is around his career norm, and this Pirates offense is much better than expected (7th in wRC+).

Despite this recent run of success, Ozuna’s wRC+ is a measly 55 thus far, and his walk rate is no longer elite. Walk, don’t run to star Ozuna on your fantasy app and see if he can keep this hot streak up for another few games. There is no need to pick him up outside of 15+ team leagues.

FICTION-ish

SP Landen Roupp (SF)

Injuries hampered Roupp’s 2025 season. Between elbow inflammation and a scary knee injury, he made just 22 starts in what should have been his first full MLB season. Roupp was successful in his 106 2/3rd IP, with a modest 3.80 ERA, 4.25 xERA, 4.10 xFIP, and 4.36 SIERA; a solid season, all things considered.

With a full offseason to get healthy, Roupp has found his footing. He has a stellar 2.38 ERA through four starts this season and elite peripherals. Roupp’s xERA, xFIP, and SIERA are all in the top-20 among qualified starters. He is cooking and could continue this success all season.

Although he was a slightly older prospect in the minors for each level, he dominated across A-Ball to Triple-A. Roupp has a four-pitch mix with an elite curveball and improved command. His strikeout rate is not elite, but he makes do with a very good 18.9% K-BB this year.

FACT

SP Bryce Elder (ATL)

Reportedly, Greg Maddux fixed Bryce Elder. Maddux questioned Elder as a “swing-and-miss” pitcher in an MLB.com report by Mark Bowman, and this set Elder straight.

Nevertheless, Elder’s strikeout rate is a career-high 25.3% this season, while his walk rate is similar to 2024 and 2025. There is no increase in velocity driving Elder thus far. He is achieving this by adding a cutter to his arsenal and halving his sinker usage.

With this adjusted pitch mix, Elder is second in baseball with a 0.77 ERA and seventh in xERA. His 3.45 xFIP and 3.50 SIERA suggest some more (obvious) regression, but neither is high enough for Elder to be considered a full fugazi. There is something to like about Elder, though benching him in tough matchups will remain wise.

He has had a mediocre run since his first full season in 2023, yet he is a modern workhorse with a big tweak on a good team that can help him accrue wins.

FACT (for now)

SP Michael Soroka (ARI)

Soroka is a former top pitching prospect who has not thrown at least 100 MLB innings since his rookie season in 2019. Two achilles tears have cut several seasons short, while shoulder and arm issues have nagged him since 2023.

Regardless, Soroka is averaging his highest fastball velocity ever to start 2026, while owning a top-10 K-BB among qualified starters. He is one of 15 starters this season with at least a 30% strikeout rate. This is an incredible development and story for the former first-round pick. He is only 28, yet it felt like his career was over multiple times in recent years.

Unfortunately, his early success this season should not last. Despite several stellar peripherals driven by his elite K-BB, Soroka is giving up consistent hard contact when batters connect. His 4.92 xERA is horrendous and reminiscent of another Diamondbacks starter, Brandon Pfaadt. Soroka is better than Pfaadt, but Pfaadt did something similar last year, where he managed a quality K-BB, but was hit so hard that he could not avoid giving up runs regularly.

Unless Soroka makes significant changes to induce more soft contact, this early success is not sustainable.

FICTION

RP Enyel de los Santos (HOU)

Bryan Abreu cannot locate the strike zone (and his velocity is down), Josh Hader is out for at least another month, and Bryan King is too valuable as the Astros’ current fireman. This has led to veteran journeyman Enyel de los Santos earning two saves in the past five days.

EDLS is not a great reliever. His career 4.37 ERA is backed by a 4.38 xERA, 4.19 xFIP, and 3.81 SIERA. He is average, but his start to 2026 is notable. EDLS holds a 1.35 ERA, 1.39 xERA, 3.87 xFIP, and 3.23 SIERA through six outings.

There are not many notable changes to his profile early in the season. His velocity is a tick down, but his strikeout rate is around his career average. The biggest difference for EDLS is how much of a fly-ball pitcher he has become. His 55.6% rate is in the top-30 of all pitchers with at least five innings pitched and a significant jump from his career 40.4% rate.

The Astros are turning EDLS into a variation of “good” Cristian Javier. This probably does not work for a majority of teams, but it works for them…at least until Josh Hader returns.

FACT (for now)