Howdy fellow Razzballeroos! It’s me again, The Great Knoche. I am back here at Razzball once more in 2026 with the weekly stolen bases SAGNOF article. I’m finding steals out there on the waiver wire for you guys and five girl readers on a weekly basis. I’ll probably make a few guest appearances writing DFS as well, so don’t fret, you can still hit me up for advice on that also.
EDITOR’S NOTE! Before we jump to SAGNOF talk, a reminder to go sign up for one or two of our Razzball Commenter Leagues HERE. They are free 12-team roto leagues where you get to play against all your favorite writers and commenters for prizes! Alright, back to regularly scheduled programming.
With the change of rules in 2023, we saw players stealing bases at the highest rate since 1997. 2024 saw the SB rate go even higher. However, 2025, while still above Pre-2023 levels, was the lowest output and success rate since the rule changes. 2023 was the only year on record where teams averaged higher than .72 stolen bases per game with a caught stealing rate as low as .18 per game. 2024 was only slightly higher in the caught stealing rate at .19. In 2025, the caught stealing rate got back above .20. In 2022, six players stole 30+ bags, and 84 players reached double digit steals, but in 2023, we saw that number go to eighteen players with 30+ bags and 124 who reached double digits. 2024 was more of the same, with 22 players netting 30+ and 115 players reaching double digits. 2025 was very similar here as well, with 21 players netting 30+ Stolen Bases and 118 reaching double digits.
So some of you newer visitors to Razzball may be asking yourself, Self…What is SAGNOF? Well, Self, SAGNOF is an acronym for Steals/Saves Ain’t Got No Face. You can find this term and many other Razzball sayings here on the glossary page. https://razzball.com/fantasy-baseball-terms/
The thought process is that you don’t have to chase stolen bases high and heavy at the start of the year. There are always going to be players who pick up a role where they chip in bags on a regular basis throughout the season. Now I’m not saying pass on Shohei Ohtani, if you have the first overall pick, or Corbin Carroll or Bobby Witt in the first round. Those guys contribute in more categories than just steals. I’m saying build a balanced team with some steals early and don’t pass on Home Runs, RBIs, and Runs to snag Jake Mangum well above his ADP because you think you’re light on steals later on. There are enough guys who can contribute in 2-3 categories and can chip in 10-20 bags later on in the draft, you don’t need Jacob. It’s funny, it must be a thing with Jake’s cause Jacob Young was my example player for this last season.
Let’s say, for instance, you read Grey’s article on Draft Prep Pairings today and find yourself stacked up with Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso in your first two rounds. Then decided for some reason you had to have Christopher Sanchez in Round 3 and Jacob DeGrom in Round 4, and couldn’t pass on Brent Rooker in the 5th. A closer run scared you in the 6th, and Devin Williams landed on the roster, and in Round 7, as a lifelong Royals fan, you finally get a chance to own Vinnie Pasquantino. While this strategy broke many of the unwritten Razzball draft rules, it can and does happen. To recap, you’ve gone seven rounds and currently have a decent pitching staff plus a .250 Batting average, 350 Runs, 390 RBIs, 180 Homers, and a paltry 20 stolen bases. What’s a guy or five girl readers to do in this situation? Let’s take a look at some guys starting in Round 8, and later that might be of benefit to balance those categories while not entirely getting nothing but steals.
Luke Keaschall, 2B: Minnesota Twins – ADP 139
I was high on Keaschall last year and was rewarded with 200 pretty damn good plate appearances when he was healthy. He hasn’t yet shown the power in MLB or AAA that he did in the lower levels of the minors, so I think there’s some serious upside there. The speed, while not elite, is Top 100 MLB with a 28.7 Ft/Second sprint speed. His jumps off pitchers, however, are elite. Watch some tape on him stealing second base, and you’ll see it. The biggest knock on Keaschall has been his health. Wrist surgery in 2023, Tommy John in 2024, and a thumb sprain in 2025. Good news was the thumb last year was his non-throwing hand. I’m making the call that 2026 is the year of healthy Keaschall, and he’s going to return way above his 10th round ADP. How about maybe .285/75/15/80/30 from him? Don’t just take my word for it, here’s a Sleeper Post from Grey earlier this off-season Luke Keaschall Sleeper, and Grey and I have never been wrong about a guy together at the same time during the third week of February ever. Well, I guess there was that one time with Rougned Odor, but he stunk.
Lawrence Butler, OF: Soon to be Las Vegas Athletics – ADP 146
Normally, players improve their hitting metrics in their second full season of MLB at-bats. Butler did not, which is why I think some people are getting a little shy on the kid. His walk rates have stayed very similar to the percentages he showed in the upper minors, however his K-rate went backwards vs 2024 and is about 10 points higher than his rates in the upper minors. His hard contact, however, is decent, and he sprays the ball to all fields, which tells me he is still a well-rounded hitter. I look for that K-rate to come back down and the contact rate to rebound. With that, the batting average will get back above .260. If that happens, there should be more chances to steal, which could easily put him at 25-30 stolen bases. Would you take .260/80/20/70/30 from your 10th round pick in a 15 team league? I would.
Jakob Marsee, OF : Miami Marlins – ADP 147
I think Marsee is the most intriguing of this Round 10 trio. He should get the chance to open the season as the Marlins lead-off hitter, as he’s shown elite patience with walk rates north of 15% in the minors. With those on-base skills, a guy who has base-stealing instincts like him with Xavier Edwards hitting afterwards is going to get plenty of chances to take second base. He is also not completely devoid of power, with hard contact rates similar to Lawrence Butler above. He probably has the highest ceiling for stolen bases of the three players listed so far. I like him for .290/75/11/60/40.
Deeper League Targets:
Justin Crawford, OF: Philadelphia Phillies – ADP 345
I don’t think either of these two guys in the deeper league SAGNOF targets are going to be one-category ponies, and their return on investment will simply depend on their playing time. If Philly doesn’t sign or trade for anyone else if looks like Crawford will be at minimum the strong side of a platoon in CF. As far as Crawford’s hitting and running goes, you may have heard of his father Carl? Their Minor league profiles are very similar, and if he develops that little uptick in power his dad did once he became a Devil Ray, it’s possible he battles for some time at the top of the lineup at some point during the season. Either way, you are going to get Average, runs and steals from him if he cracks the lineup. Maybe something like .308/75/10/40/40 in 400+ ABs
Carson Benge, OF: New York Mets – ADP 456
This kid, like Crawford, is a non-roster invitee this spring with hopes to crack the roster and the opening day lineup. I like both their chances, or they wouldn’t be listed here. Benge just looks like a boring, but slightly above average across the board kind of player. He kind of reminds me of the guy he is replacing in the Mets lineups Brandon Nimmo. Nimmo probably has a little more power, and Benge a little more speed. Benge didn’t run as much at the higher levels of the minors, so there is some concern about him not running as much in the Show. Either way, if I’m looking to add 15ish steals at this ADP he is a guy I am looking at. His low K-rate and high BB-rate will keep his bat in the lineup if he gets the chance. Give me .275/75/15/65/15 from The Benge.
That’s it to start our stolen base draft prep articles. More to come next week. You can also hit me up on Twitter or “X” or whatever it’s now called @TheGreatKnoche
