Mid-Week MarmosDad is BACK to give you all a boost in your DFS lineup setups today! I’ve done some deeper delving into the den of data so that you don’t have to do it yourself!
Wednesday seems like it’s always a full slate, and today is no different than the rest we’ve peeked in at since early May. Today, we start again at 12:35 PM ET with Colorado at Pittsburgh, then move through a few afternoon games before finishing up with our 13th game of the day in Anaheim as the Rangers face the Angels at 9:38 PM ET.
Just like in previous weeks, my pricing here reflects the DraftKings DFS game totals. There are some decently priced SP for your lineups today, as well as the big-ticket names to plug and play at 1B and the OF. As always, I tried to find a few more affordable names to help round out your lineups or allow you to fit in some big bats elsewhere. Last, but certainly not least, here’s hoping that Reid Detmers sends Otto back to Springfield in a puff of smoke tonight!
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Reid Detmers, SP: (DK) $8,400 – Detmers is one of the better priced options in today’s SP pool. Coming off of a short outing against Texas last week, I’m looking for Detmers to bounce back against this same Rangers squad. It was a bit of bizarro-world that Detmers threw a no-hitter against the Rays, then followed up with 3.1 innings of fairly hittable baseball last week against a Rangers squad that ranks 28th overall in OPS and OBP. I’m looking for Detmers to throw more in line with his game against Tampa and chalk the last outing up to arm fatigue after throwing 108 pitches in his complete game. With a healthy Angels lineup behind him, look for Detmers to be in good shape for a win as well as a handful of strikeouts. He should be in a position to take the Rangers to school and drive the bus against Glenn Otto’s club at home today.
Robbie Ray, SP: (DK) $8,000 – 9 starts into the season and we still haven’t seen the Cy Young Robbie Ray that we saw north of the border last year. Although Ray has averaged around 90 pitches per outing, he still has allowed 2 or more ER in each of his starts after his first of the year. Normally, that would be enough to make me shy away from an $8,000 price tag and a second SP for the day, but there are two big reasons why playing the Streamonator’s top pitcher (64.2) is a good bet for today’s slate: a very good (bad?) opponent and high strikeout potential. Ray gets the A’s at home today, and to say that Oakland is a potential feeding frenzy for Ray today would be an understatement. Oakland’s team batting average (.208), OBP (.274), and SLG (.317) look more like their attendance numbers than actual club batting statistics. I’m looking for at least 8-10 strikeouts and a W from Robbie Ray this afternoon at home vs the A’s.
Adley Rutschman, C: (DK) $3,900 – There is no Kansas City game today, so I can’t recommend MJ Melendez yet again (even with his increase in playing time), so let’s move over to another rookie catcher with a decent price tag in Adley Rutschman. With apologies to Matt Wieters, there may not have been this much excitement in Baltimore since The Wire was on HBO. The arrival of MLB’s top prospect came this past Saturday as Adley walked once and legged out a triple against the Rays in Tampa. He’s recorded a hit in 3 of his first 4 games and looks like he’ll get every day playing time. Today in Yankee Stadium, Adley gets sinkerballer rookie JP Sears, so I’ll play Rutschman as a more affordable catcher today.
Freddie Freeman, 1B: (DK) $5,700 – The Hittertron is top-heavy today with Dodgers, so an easy chalk pick here for a big time bat is Freddie Freeman (at 35.9 Hittertron points). If you’re looking to play a cheaper option, you can look at Josh Naylor for $3,600 (now only 1B eligible in DraftKings), but I’ll play Freeman in my lineups today. Freddie is everything the Dodgers thought he would be, and then some. He sports a triple slash line of .302/.392/.469, an xwOBA of 98, xSLG at 97, and he faces Erick Fedde on the road. This one is about as close to a perfect play as you’ll get in the 1B picks today.
Trevor Story, 2B: $5,400 – Over the last week, there may not be a DFS earner with greater daily point totals than Trevor Story. Averaging 20 DraftKings points over the last 7 days, (and with another home run last night), Story has been scorching hot and seemingly found the groove that Red Sox fans have been hoping for since he signed the six year / $140 million deal in the off-season. B-Don and Grey spoke on the podcast yesterday about Story’s current hot streak and pointed out that his launch angle is up to 24 and he has the best barrel rate of his career right now. Grey also pointed out that Story’s explosion has moved him up on the player rater from the 225th spot last week to the 31st spot as of Monday. He won’t be blasting homers over the Green Monster tonight as the Red Sox are on the road, but I’ll ride the recent resurgence of Trevor Story in my DFS lineups today.
Isaac Paredes, 2B/3B: (DK) $3,400 – Recalled by the Rays on May 16th when Brandon Lowe hit the IL (back injury), “E-Sock” Paredes hasn’t exactly blown the doors off of the league in his second stint this season. He has, however, managed to start in every game since his recall, and increased his FB% (37%) as well as his barrel rate (11.1%). Paredes had a two homer game last Wednesday and hit another one out on Sunday at Oriole Park. At home against what looks to be an opener in Cody Poteet (26 pitches in 2 IP last start), I’ll play a cheaper Paredes at either 2B or 3B today.
Tim Anderson, SS: (DK) $5,400 – I was originally going to slot Paredes in here as a more affordable SS play, but he doesn’t qualify, so I checked the trusty Hittertron and, low and behold, Mr. Anderson was the second ranked shortstop today behind a certain Treat Urner. Anderson has been very productive with hits in 9 of his last 10 games with 6 of them being multi-hit outings. A quick look at his splits shows an even juicier day ahead, as his average against lefties this year sits at .519. Throw in an .815 SLG and 1.333 OPS, (vs LHP), and I’m all in. You won’t need Jim Croce to tell you that Tim Anderson is set to be the ‘baddest man in the whole damn town’ against LHP Rich Hill on the south side of Chicago tonight.
Kyle Lewis, OF: (DK) $3,000 – He’s baaaaaaack! Last night, Kyle Lewis made his long overdue season debut with a couple of hits in the Seattle lineup. Scott Servais started him at DH and batted him 7th against James Kaprielian, presumably to ease Lewis back into action without having to roam that spacious outfield at T-Mobile Park. Lewis has a small sample size to reference over the last 3 years, (only 162 games total), but his best hitting metrics do come against RHP (HR/FB% 21.9). For my absolutely injury-ravaged Razzslam team, Lewis’s return is a welcome one. Coming back from a knee injury, he may not test out the legs with any SB attempts, but at a $3,000 price tag, he should be an easy plug and play for some hits with the potential for some power. If you’re playing some big-priced bats elsewhere, look for Lewis as a cheaper option to round out your outfield.
Aaron Judge, OF: (DK) $6,200 – There are a TON of great OF plays today, especially in the late games, but is there anyone in the league running hotter than the honorable Aaron Judge? To reference back to the earlier tune in Tim Anderson’s blurb, Aaron Judge could be, ‘badder than old King Kong…and meaner than a junkyard dog,’ when it comes to hammering baseballs into orbit. Judge’s Statcast page is littered with 100’s (Avg Exit Velocity, Barrel %, xwOBA, HardHit%, xSLG). Measure those numbers against RHP Tyler Wells, who is giving up a .688 SLG% on the road, and I’ll use up a lot of my budget to take the Judge at Yankee Stadium again today.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There are only a couple of games to keep an eye on as far as inclement weather goes. Detroit at Minnesota has a 60% chance of a rain delay, and Philly at Atlanta is around 40% p.o.p. Strongest winds look to be in Chicago for the Battle of the Sox (Boston vs Chicago).
Doing Lines In Vegas
I’m sticking with my Reid Detmers play from above and taking the Angels at +130 over Texas today.
For O/U, I like the under of 7 in Milwaukee (Ashby) vs San Diego (Darvish); and the over in the Baltimore (Wells) vs New York (Sears) at 9.
