What’s up, everybody? Remember back into simpler times, like 6 months ago [shudder] when all you had to do to make money was buy an imaginary coin sponsored by a dumb-looking dog on Reddit? Those good days are passed and now we’re asking Eric Lauer and Jackson Kowar to bring us some tendies. What’s that you say? You haven’t heard of those guys? Yeah, I’m not starting them either. In the meantime, let’s take a look at who gets Dogebump and who ends up in the regulatory trash basket.
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Starting Pitchers
Chalk: Gerrit Cole, Aaron Nola
Expensive Leverage: Blake Snell
GPP Darlings: Edward Cabrera, Jake Odorizzi
You’ve got a full slate of pitchers to choose from, and obviously Cole and Nola are going to be rostered everywhere. For your cash games, they should make up like 70% of your plays. Every over-reactionary Joe out there thought Cole was cooked after the sticky substance ban, but he just needed to figure out what he was doing in a new situation. He’s fresh off a 15 K start and he’s got 40K/4BB over the past month. Cole isn’t always on — and when he’s bad he’s just as bad as any other schmo — but he’s on right now and that’s what matters.
Edward Cabrera takes on the Mets, and that’s all I need to get excited about upside. Jake Odorizzi has been more than acceptable over the past month and takes on the flailing Mariners.
Hitters
Remember that I’m writing and submitting this well before roster lock, and these players have a greater than 50% chance of being in the lineup today. As always, check lineups before submitting your entries.
These are my crushers, who are identified as being both favorites in Rudy’s DFS Tools as well as being the top batters on the slate in terms of home/away and handedness splits for wOBA, ISO, and line drive %. Put these batters at a 40%+ exposure or build around them for single entry events:
| Crushers |
|---|
| Rafael Devers |
| Patrick Wisdom |
| Joey Votto |
| Salvador Perez |
| Shohei Ohtani |
| Max Muncy |
| Brandon Belt |
| Mike Zunino |
| George Springer |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. |
My Hobbits are batters who have less stringent power requirements but are some of the cheaper bats on the slate.
| Hobbits |
|---|
| Adam Duvall |
| Max Muncy |
| Gary Sanchez |
| Kyle Higashioka |
| Brandon Belt |
| Mike Zunino |
My list of unexpected cheap hitters is huge today. These guys are defined by being the cheapest bats on the slate with the highest line drive % against the handedness split. These guys are also the most likely to sit, so please check lineups if you play these guys.
| Think Differently |
|---|
| Pavin Smith |
| Anthony Santander |
| Alex Verdugo |
| Travis Shaw |
| Brian Goodwin |
| Tyler Naquin |
| Victor Reyes |
| Chas McCormick |
| Juan Lagares |
| Kurt Suzuki |
| Max Stassi |
| Chris Taylor |
| Jesus Aguilar |
| Avisail Garcia |
| Daniel Vogelbach |
| Jace Peterson |
| Kolten Wong |
| Luis Urias |
Favorite Stacks
| CHC |
| SF |
| PIT |
| NYM |
| CLE |
| LAD |
| ARI |
I’m Only Happy When It Rains:
Minimal chance of rain throughout the slate at the time of writing. Check weather reports closer to game lock to ensure no late summer storms pop up.
Doing Lines in Vegas:
Marlins are +135 against the Mets at the time of writing. The Mets are 28-42 on the road and they’re sending out Carlos Carrasco to the mound today. Carrasco has a 6+ ERA, 5+ FIP, and allows 2 HR/9 so far on the season. I think we’ve found our inefficiency to exploit. Very likely, this is an opening line meant to attract bettors so watch out if it changes, but I’m seeing Miami as high as +150 at some sites.
