We are officially into the dog days of summers. Where has the time gone? NFL teams are all in camp and the Hall of fame game was last week. Tonight, however, we will have a full 10 game slate. Pitching will be hard to come by tonight. There aren’t any true aces on the slate and plenty of mediocre pitchers toeing the rubber. That, along with a heatwave over the central and eastern parts of the country, offense should be plentiful.
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Tyler Anderson, SP: $7,600 – Short of two very ugly outings against the Dodgers and Nationals, Anderson has been fairly good this season. He gave up 15 ERs between those two starts and still has an ERA in the low 4’s. He doesn’t have elite strikeout “stuff” but the Rangers are dead last in wRC+ since July 1st. Also, now that Joey Gallo is in New York, their offense leaves much to be desired.
Kevin Gausman, SP: $10,300 – Gausman is having a career year with a 2.31 ERA along with a 30.2% K rate. Conversely, the Diamondbacks are having a year to forget. They have the worst record in the game and are bottom 5 in most offensive categories.
Catcher/First Base
Rowdy Tellez / Omar Narvaez, C/1B: $3,000 / $3,100 – It’s supposed to be around 100° with the heat index for the game along with a 16-mph wind blowing out to center field. Jake Arrieta has been this year. He has the worst FIP at 6.26, among pitchers with at least 80 IP. Homer runs have been the problem for Jake as his HR/9 sits at 2.3. Not a great combo for him on a hot night where the ball will be flying.
Trey Mancini, C/1B: $3,200 – It’s going to be a hot night in Baltimore. Heat index hovering around 100° with high humidity and winds blowing out to left field. Tarik Skubal has struggled as of late, allowing 4 or more runs in 3 of his last 6 outings including a game against Baltimore.
Second Base
Max Muncy, 2B: $3,700 – Continuing the theme of hot weather, it’s going to be a miserable night in Philadelphia. Kyle Gibson has been good this year, but his FIP is nearly a run higher than his ERA and his barrel rate is half of what we’ve seen in years past. I think he’s walking into a buzz saw tonight that is the Dodgers lineup. Citizens Bank Park is one of the best hitters park in the game, add in some hot-thin air, and it should be a launching pad tonight.
Eduardo Escobar / Kolten Wong, 2B: $3,700 / $3,300 – It’s close but Escobar is my preference here. He has more power and thus more upside of a single game span. Wong is still no slouch though. He’ll bat at the top of the lineup against bad pitching, on a night where the ball should be sailing around Wrigley Field.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 3B: $4,400 – Dylan Bundy has been a huge disappointment after a strong 2020 showing. His home run problems from when he was in Baltimore are back. It’s not going to get any easier for him tonight. Not only is Vladdy in the middle of Triple Crown bid, but he also leads the AL in runs scored. In fact, the top 3 players in runs scored in the AL are all Blue Jays.
Mike Moustakas, 3B: $2,800 – Moose is back of the IL and it appears that he has found himself in a platoon. He gets Touki Toussaint tonight, who is notoriously inconsistent. Touki has bounced between the minors and the Braves rotation for years now. In 117.1 career IP, his ERA is above 5.5 with an unhealthy 12.9% walk rate.
Short Stop
Willy Adames, SS: $3,200 – Frankly, any of the Brewers bats are viable tonight and Adames has easily been their best player since the trade. He’s been hitting 3rd for some time and even though Yelich has struggled, his OBP is .372, and should have plenty of RBI chances.
Xander Bogaerts, SS: $3,400 – He’ll get the platoon advantage against Josh Fleming tonight. It won’t be as hot as their fellow east coast brethren. However, the humidity is hovering around 90% and should allow the ball to fly nicely. Moreover, the wind is forecasted to blow out to left. Could be a short outing for Fleming if he doesn’t have his “A” stuff.
Outfield
Austin Hays, OF: $2,700 – Hays hasn’t quite turned into the fantasy darling many have hoped for the last couple of seasons. However, he still does have some pop with 12 home runs despite some time on the IL. Conditions will be great for hitting in Baltimore tonight and at $2.7k, he could be the steal of the slate.
Hunter Renfroe, OF: $3,300 – I don’t recommend a full-stack against the Rays because of their excellent bullpen and willingness to use it. However, we shouldn’t write off all their games. Renfroe has a career-best 13.4%-barrel rate and has always had incredible power.
Akil Baddoo, OF: $3,200 – Akil has hits in 7 of his last 8 starts. Matt Harvey gets the call in this one. Harvey has been on a fine run of form, only giving up 2 combined ERs in his last 4 starts. However, his ERA is still above 6 and he is well past his prime. Add in the launching pad that is Camden Yards on a hot night, and we should see some fireworks tonight.
Christian Yelich / Avisail Garcia, OF: $3,500 / 3,300 – Projections for MLB DFS often don’t mean much. Baseball is highly variable, but the two teammates are 1st and 4th respectively in projected points tonight. Considering the ballpark conditions and mediocre pitching, I’m on board with them tonight.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There are not any games you need to worry about in terms of postponement. There is plenty of hot and humid weather that will bolster the offense. The biggest winners there will be Chicago, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Cleveland.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Oakland (Frankie Montas) at Cleveland (Cal Quantrill) O/U 9.5 runs scored – take the under. Montas has not given up more than 3 ERs since June 26. Since then, he’s upped his splitter usage and his K rate has followed suit. Quantrill has been a pleasant surprise this year. his 6.97 K/9 limits his fantasy appeal but he’s been keeping the ball on the ground and limiting walks. Granted neither of them are elite shut-down pitchers, but Cleveland is a bottom 10 offense and Oakland is respectable but hurting after the suspension of Ramon Laureano. All in all, the 9.5 run total is too high.
