Welcome to June baseball everyone! Typically, I tend to fade games in Coors. Ownership tends to be very high and as a result it’s hard to gain an advantage. However, I won’t call you a fool playing hitters on those nights. If stacking is your play, I think there are some pretty interesting games. Stacking either side or both of the Minnesota/Baltimore game is a strong play. The same can be said about the Washington/Atlanta game.
I like Houston as sneaky stack as well. Nick Pivetta has enjoyed the breakout we’ve been waiting for over the last 3 seasons. However, he is still walking plenty of batters and has a predominantly fastball/slider pitch mix. This isn’t great as the Astros have the lowest K rate in baseball. Moreover, they are 8th as a team against fastballs and 1st against sliders. While I do think the Coors game will have plenty of runs scored, there are good options elsewhere.
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Sean Manaea, SP: $8,500 – Seattle is currently 26th in wRC+ against LHP and striking out at a healthy 27.4% clip. Manaea seems to have figured something out as he currently holds the highest K% and swinging strike % of his career (24.2% and 12.1% respectively). Sean’s never had walk issues and if he keeps this up, he will transform himself into a very respectable big leaguer.
Jordan Montgomery, SP: $7,500 – The Rays have been slightly below average against LHP (95 wRC+). The thing that pops off the page is a 30.8% strike out rate against LHP. Even Mike Minor last week managed 9 K’s, 1 ER in 5 IP. Montgomery owns a respectable 3.68 FIP and a healthy 4.08 K/BB ratio.
Catcher/First Base
Ryan Zimmerman, C/1B: $2,300 – He may just be relegated to platoon duties at this point but the 36-year-old has still some in the tank. He’s slashed .319/.347/.593 with 6 homers thus far. He gets Drew Smyly who has given up 11 runs in his last 17.1 IP and currently has the worst FIP in baseball with at least 40 IP.
Miguel Sano, C/1B: $2,600 – The big man is slumping and hasn’t recorded a hit since May 26th. I still like this play though. He won’t draw much ownership as a result and he could easily hit multiple homers in small park against mediocre pitching.
Second Base
Ozzie Albies, 2B: $3,100 – Albies against a lefty will catch my attention every time. He averages 90 points better as a RHB, 60 points in ISO, and owns a 150 wRC+. Couple that with getting to face the ghost of Jon Lester in a hitters park and you can pencil him in for a good night.
Max Muncy, 2B: $4,000 – Muncy in May hit .330/.440/.714 with 10 homers. I expect that to continue against a struggling Carlos Martinez. More importantly, the Dodgers are starting to get healthy, only giving Muncy more guys to knock in.
Third Base
Austin Riley, 3B: $3,000 – FanDuel’s pricing algorithm clearly hasn’t caught on to how good Riley has been. He’s broke out in fashion, hitting .305/.401/.533 with 10 homers. His k rate suggests that average will come down some but let’s ride the wave while we can. He’ll get another mediocre lefty in this one and the Braves should be primed up for a good night.
Josh Donaldson, 3B: $3,000 – Donaldson had a brutal couple of weeks in the middle of May. That saw his average plummet to .241. Thankfully, he seems to be coming out of it and is working on a 4-game hitting streak. No better place to be than in Camden against Matt Harvey in the midst of a heater.
Short Stop
Trea Turner, SS: $3,700 – Not much to say here, Turner has been his incredible self this season. Drew Smyly has the worst FIP in baseball with at least 40 IP. Don’t overthink this one.
Carlos Correa, SS: $3,300 – Correa finds himself in the top 20 in BB/K along with fellow teammates, Yuli Gurriel and Alex Bregman. This bodes well against a pitcher who has been erratic at times this year. More importantly, Correa has shown that he still has pop left in his bat. His ~7% barrel rate and 43.1% HH rate won’t get him to 30+ homers, but he is more than capable of launching one out. He should be a part of any Astro’s stack tonight.
Outfield
Alex Kirilloff, OF: $3,000 – Since starting 0-14, he’s slashed .290/.324/.536. He’ll go up against the corpse of the dark knight in Matt Harvey. Harvey has been better than 6.84 ERA would indicate as he owns a 4.37 FIP. Which is his best mark since 2016. He’s still a below-average pitcher though and Camden has very good power alleys for hitters.
Anthony Santander, OF: $2,800 – He has been excellent since coming of the IL, hitting .341/.356/.568. Randy Dobnak has been on the receiving end of some bad luck and his ERA of 6.49 is 2 runs higher than his FIP (4.33). However, the wind is going to be blowing out to left field in what is a small park already. Dobnak will probably turn it around at some point, but I don’t think that’s tonight.
Nelson Cruz, OF: $3,200 – Hard to believe it was 7 years ago already that he played for the O’s. He hit 40 bombs that year and hasn’t hit one since May 19th. He’s due and gets a soft match-up in a comfortable environment.
Cody Bellinger, OF: $3,800 – He’s been brutal, including going 0-10 since coming off the IL. He got the night off on Tuesday. Carlos Martinez hasn’t been missing any bats this year as he’s in the bottom 3% of the league in K rate and his swinging strike rate is well below league average. A pitch to contact guy might and a day off just be what the doctor ordered.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There is a chance for light rain forecasted throughout the night for the Marlins at Blue Jays game
Doing Lines In Vegas
Rangers (Jordan Lyles) at Rockies (Antonio Senzatela) O/U 10.5 runs scored- Take the over. Scoring environment matters. The Rockies have the worst offense in the league when you look at standardized metrics (ie wRC+), and they are tied for first in runs scored at home. The Rangers have been much better offensively than we thought they would be. Albeit, that better than expectations just league average. Neither of these pitchers are any good. Lyles has really struggled at preventing homers the last three seasons and Senzatela doesn’t miss any bats. Not a great combination for getting guys out in Coors.
