Tonight is my favorite kind of night on Draft.com. The small rosters usually mean you’re choosing between great hitter A and great hitter B. Some tough match-ups equals slimmer than usual pickin’s for this slate. That’s going to help you gain an edge by doing your homework and finding advantageous spots for players like Justin Bour and Mike Foltynewicz. So sharpen up your pencil, and maybe stop doodling inappropriately.
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Corey Kluber, SP: Early. The Klubot is calibrated for maximum K at the moment. He’s gone 8, 7, and 8 innings in three starts so far. It’s good to see him avoiding a slow start. Ohtani is tempting as the top pitcher, but I’ll take the safer thing with Kluber.
Patrick Corbin, SP: Middle. Corbin’s slider is wipe-out level again, helping to induce a 17.9% SwStr%. If he can pitch through the sixth inning, there’s a good chance he posts double-digit Ks.
Mike Foltynewicz, SP: Late. What’s gotten into Folty? Things may be clicking for the promising strikeout pitcher. He passed a pretty big test against the Nationals last time out. The Phillies have been an all-or-none offense so far, in large part due to a 26% strikeout rate vs RHP.
Alex Wood, SP: for the gambler. When Wood has his stuff working, opposing hitters look silly. If his noise is missing some of the funk like it did last time out, things go wrong quickly.
Giancarlo Stanton, IF: Early. If you read anything from Razzball prior to this season, you will not be shocked that Stanton is the top value on Rudy’s Hittertron today (if you haven’t subscribed to Rudy’s Tools, go get the free trial). His huge 0.56 HR probability is more than double the next non-Yankee on there.
Justin Smoak, IF: Middle. The Smoak monster gets it done from both sides of the dish with a SLG in the mid .500’s for either hand. Eric Skoglund is a questionable starter at best. Smoak’s the heart of the lineup at the moment. Hopefully, there’s no risk to this game being played.
Justin Bour, IF: Late. The Marlins do not offer much offensively outside of their burly first baseman. Bour’s power stroke in Yankee Stadium might be too good a play to pass up, though. The shape of Yankee Stadium and the short left field porch increase home runs significantly.
Mike Trout, OF: Early. Mike Trout is always 1.1. There are also a host of questions about David Price’s health/current ability to pitch coming into a game against a lineup that mashes LHP.
Khris Davis, OF: Middle. When Khris-with-a-K Davis gets on a hot streak, it’s always smart to ride it. Four homers in his last five games is muy caliente. He also gets to treat Miguel Gonzalez like a pinata for a few innings.
Starling Marte, OF: Late. Marte has been on a mission with his legs this season: he’s stolen 5 bases on 7 attempts. Steals don’t pay out the same as big power, but they’re a nice floor.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Subtitled: Cold November (April) Rain (you better believe that’s the 9-minute version)
The rain’s moving out of most host cities, but lower temperatures still prevail. Seattle is the biggest precipitation concern.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Subtitled: Checkout Time In Vegas (some of Drive-By Truckers’ best work)
The over on the Dodgers-Padres line of 8 is my favorite target of the night. Bryan Mitchell has been a trainwreck of a pitcher. Wood is a wildcard, but the Padres are well equipped for lefties.
