2026 MLB Risers And Fallers: Opening Day Edition

Spring Training Risers

Luke Keaschall (2B), Minnesota Twins

If Matt McLain weren’t taking over the headlines with his ridiculous Spring Training line, we would all be talking about another Central division second baseman – Luke Keaschall. All Keaschall has done is hit .377/.411/.717 with three homers and two steals in 54 plate appearances. In addition, he only struck out twice all spring. He is about ready to take the next step up for the Twins as a 23-year-old in his first full season. In case you forgot what Keaschall can do, take a look at his production in just 49 games last season.

He hit .302/.382/.445 with four home runs and 14 steals in just 207 plate appearances. Can Keaschall prorate that out to 12 home runs and 45 steals? I don’t see why not. He was above a 12% walk rate at all minor league stops, so his eye is excellent. And his sprint speed is in the 85th percentile among all players.

Mick Abel (SP), Minnesota Twins

Mick Abel beat out Zebby Matthews for the final spot in the Minnesota Twins rotation after an absolutely unbelievable spring. Abel, only 24 years old, had a 2.05 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP across 22 innings. He added 27 strikeouts while only walking four batters in his 22 innings. After that kind of stretch, he earned a spot in the rotation, and now he will have to prove he can do it every fifth day in the regular season.

Abel, acquired in a trade with Philadelphia last season, was drafted in the first round in 2020 and put up some eye-popping strikeout numbers in the minor leagues. After a bumpy debut last season where he secured a 6.23 ERA, Abel is back to prove he is one of the best young pitching prospects in the game. Walks have always been his struggle, and if he can keep those down this season, the sky is the limit.

Spring Training Fallers

Garrett Mitchell (OF), Milwaukee Brewers

There are over 1,000 players who got a plate appearance in some kind of Spring Training game this season. Only five had more strikeouts than Garrett Mitchell’s 20. Each of those other players had at least 48 at-bats. Mitchell had 37. Could this be a very small sample size? Sure, it could. But it’s hard not to look at .081/.190/.216 from the spring and not be worried. This is, of course, the spring after he hit just .206/.286/.394 in an injury-filled 2025 that held him to 25 games. Should we be worried?

Mitchell was on the 60-day IL last year with a terrible oblique strain. A couple of things could be happening here. One is Mitchell just needs more time to get his swing and mechanics back. The other is: Mitchell is overcompensating and trying to make sure he doesn’t suffer the injury again. Either way, it could be a while before we see the player who had a mini breakout in 2024 before injuries got the best of him.

Kyle Manzardo (1B), Cleveland Guardians

Kyle Manzardo is looking for a breakout season as the primary first baseman of the Cleveland Guardians in 2026. If Spring Training was any kind of harbinger, he may still be looking for it far into the future. Manzardo is hitting .182/.237/.345 as the season opens, and he is one of the few players with more strikeouts than Garrett Mitchell (21). He has more than a 5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio this spring, which is troubling after back-to-back seasons with a strikeout rate over 25%.

Manzardo has extraordinary power, but he has not been able to maintain the walk rates and pitch selectivity he had in the minor leagues. Entering his age-25 season, now is the time if Manzardo wants to put it all together. We won’t hold 50 at-bats up against him as predictive of what is to come, but Manzardo is still clearly in “show me” mode as the season begins.

Roki Sasaki (SP), Los Angeles Dodgers

I think the Dodgers wanted to give Roki Sasaki more than 8.2 innings this spring, since they’ll need him in their rotation to start the season, but he just couldn’t locate his pitches and looked absolutely dreadful. He finished Spring Training with a 15.58 ERA and a 2.27 WHIP. He gave up 15 walks to just 12 strikeouts. With Blake Snell sidelined to start 2026, the Dodgers have no other choice, but Sasaki looks like the weak link in the pitching rotation for a team that’s otherwise a juggernaut.

Projections for Sasaki aren’t terrible, as most show him with a 4.2 ERA and eight strikeouts per nine innings. He will certainly receive plenty of run support, but considering he only started eight games in 2025, we can’t count on him to give us 25 starts in 2026. The pitcher who struck out 12 batters per game and had an ERA under 3.00 every year in Korea has not emerged yet. Perhaps he still will, but this spring showed he has a long way to go.