Major League Baseball has now played two of its 2,430 games this season with the South Korea series ended, which means all we really have are Spring Training stats to evaluate who we need for our fantasy baseball squads. With March about to wrap up, who deserves a better or worse spot in our drafts this weekend?
In the aggregate, Spring Training stats are mostly meaningless, but things like playing time, usage, and lineup spots can be useful information. Players who are buzzy and end up with tremendous or terrible springs are also hard to ignore.
There are still several big names yet to debut in Spring Training such as J.D. Martinez, and Jordan Montgomery. But most players are 15-20 games into 2024 Spring Training, so this piece will look at some MLB fantasy assets that have seen their fantasy value rise and fall through the four weeks of Spring Training games.
(ADP reflects NFBC draft position since March 1)
Spring Training Risers
Wyatt Langford (OF), Texas Rangers – NFBC ADP: 99.0
Wyatt Langford popped his sixth Spring Training home run on Wednesday afternoon, and the cost of acquiring his services is now likely to move up another half-round by next week. From December 1 thru the end of February, Langford’s ADP was 153.2. Now he is squarely in the top 100 with an everyday role all but secure.
But can he do this on the big stage with almost zero minor league experience? He was able to squeeze in 41 games between A and AAA last season and is now hitting .378/.442/.756 in Spring Training. He has the tools and raw power that can translate immediately to the majors, and some projection systems have him leading the entire Major Leagues in doubles.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1B), Cincinnati Reds – NFBC ADP: 137.4
There is no doubt about Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s playing time now, with Noelvi Marte popped for steroids and TJ Friedl fracturing his wrist. That could all change by the time July rolls around, but CES may have demonstrated enough pop by then to be indispensable. He smashed 13 homers in just 63 games last season after hitting another 20 in AAA.
Encarnacion-Strand already has four bombs to go along with 12 RBI and a .756 slugging percentage. But the best part about his game this spring is that he has only a 12% strikeout rate. If he can make better contact and cut down on his swinging strike rate, the rest of the league is in big trouble.
Shota Imanaga (SP), Chicago Cubs – NFBC ADP: 172.2
Some of Shota Imanaga’s surface stats just look alright after his first 10 big league innings in Spring Training. A 4.66 ERA and 1.24 WHIP looks more like Kyle Gibson than new Cubs’ ace, but the numbers are hiding an intriguing part of Imanaga’s game. He also has 19 strikeouts in his first 10 innings, and he is making some major league batters look foolish with his mid-90s fastball and slider/splitter combo. He’s only walked two batters this spring and perhaps the hits off him are he and the Cubs’ catchers trying to work on their locations and framing, knowing the swing and miss stuff is already there.
There are 14 pitchers who have struck out at least 18 batters this spring, but Imanaga is the only one to do it in less than 11.2 innings. It’s possible hitters catch up to him at some point this season, but for now, enjoy the 200-strikeout potential around pick 175 in drafts.
Spring Training Fallers
Josh Jung (3B), Texas Rangers – NFBC ADP: 132.5
Josh Jung might get an injury exemption from this list if we are feeling generous, but at Spring Training, attendance has to be part of the grade at some point. Jung has started hitting in some Minor League Spring Training games this week, but he still doesn’t have a plate appearance with the big club this spring while he deals with a calf injury.
That has caused his ADP to tumble this month, even though GM Chris Young has stated he is “certain” Jung will be in the lineup come Opening Day. And when have General Managers ever lied to us? Jung was masterful in the postseason last season (.308/.329/.538), and is looking to build on that success, but lingering calf issues and no appearances are causing drafters to avoid him this spring. However, as the 12th third baseman off the board in current drafts, he might be starting to creep into undervalued territory assuming the Rangers are telling the truth.
Wilyer Abreu (OF), Boston Red Sox – NFBC ADP: 551.3
Only five players in Spring Training have more at-bats than Wilyer Abreu’s 46 through Tuesday’s games. One of those five is Ceddanne Rafaela as the Boston Red Sox are giving both players plenty of opportunity to win the last outfield spot for Opening Day. The problem for Abreu is, he has done nothing with his opportunity.
His slash line this spring is .152/.291/.348 and he leads all players with 19 strikeouts this spring. Rafaela, meanwhile, is hitting .277/.333/.574 with three bombs and two steals, and seems to have locked up the center field job. Abreu has massive power and speed potential, and it’s likely to get him to the Major Leagues at some point this season, but he has fallen 50+ spots in ADP over the last month because of poor performance.
Eduardo Rodriguez (SP), Arizona Diamondbacks – NFBC ADP: 191.6
Assuming 32 starts per season, Eduardo Rodriguez has missed 21 starts over the last two years with a variety of injuries and time off for personal reasons. Is the rust showing in spring this year? Perhaps. His 8.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP are not exactly what the Diamondbacks ordered when they signed E-Rod to a new, four-year, $80-million deal this offseason. Rodriguez is supposed to provide some stability to the strong core of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, but so far Rodriguez has been the opposite.
The problem this spring is the home runs. He is allowing three homers per nine innings when he has never given up more than 1.35/9 in his career. It’s also not looking good thanks to a horrific .423 BABIP against over the last six weeks, but these should be things he can iron out as the season gets going. The risk is low with Rodriguez still going around pick 200 in drafts (and falling), but if his lat injury that caused him to leave a game early on Tuesday is something serious, he should drop another 50 spots.
