Welcome to the 2019 Razzball Team Previews! You’ll find everything you need to know about each team to get yourself ready for the upcoming fantasy baseball season. And I mean everything folks. We’ve got charts, Slurpee’s, lube, a guide for beginner basket-weaving, and even a cactus! Oh wait, yeah, I actually just listed what I have on my desk… But hey, what’s the point of lube and cacti if you can’t share? Truer words have never been written. EVER. Anyways, without further ado (and plenty of lube and cacti), let’s check out the 2019 San Diego Padres!

Check out our other team previews here!

2018 Recap (PTSD INTENSIFIES): 5th in the NL West (or just four spots away from first, as I like to say…), 66-96 (25.5 GB). RS/G: 3.81 (28th), RA/G: 4.73 (21st), SB: 95 (9th), ERA: 4.41 (21st), Saves: 36 (24th) and K: 1,399 (14th).

2019 Notable Additions: 2B Ian Kinsler, SP Garrett Richards , IF Greg Garcia.

2019 Notable Subtractions: RP Colten Brewer, RP Walker Lockett, RP Rowan Wick, C Raffy Lopez.

2019 Prospect Watch: Fernando Tatis Jr., Luis Urias, Francisco Mejia. (Razzball’s 2019 Minor League Preview.)

My TL;DR Hot Take for 2019: Padres suck, but unlike Hoover, who is a dead person, and is also the name of a famous vacuum company AND A DAM!… Padres won’t suck forever. (I think. Don’t hold me to that. Seriously.) There are some great fantasy buy-lows on this roster, and the bullpen has some interesting names that you can grab on the cheap. The team’s biggest asset, however, continues to be its loaded farm system. Tap it like I tap… dance (carefully, with profound effort) and you should start receiving returns on your investments midway this season and into the next several years (keeper formats).

2019 Projected Batting Order and Stats*
Order Player Pos R HR RBI SB AVG
1 Ian Kinsler 2B 48 11 39 11 0.246
2 Luis Urias SS 63 9 48 5 0.248
3 Eric Hosmer 1B 76 22 78 6 0.265
4 Wil Myers OF 71 23 71 17 0.240
5 Franmil Reyes OF 67 27 79 2 0.252
6 Manuel Margot OF 53 11 49 15 0.260
7 Austin Hedges C 29 11 35 2 0.225
8 Greg Garcia 3B 34 4 30 5 0.241

Eric Hosmer and his contract (one in the same, forever) finished with a line of 253/322/398 in 2018, all of which were all career lows in the past four years. Both his strikeout rate of 21% (a career-high) and his famously low launch-angle (that generates an egregious amount of ground balls) fueled most of his second-half collapse. Hosmer was also a dumpster-fire with breaking pitches, hitting just .189 and swinging and missing on 40% of those types. I only mention this because if he can somehow show in spring training an effort (try Eric, please) to spread the ball around to all fields and improve his contact rates, regression to his career norms could happen. SO YOU’RE SAYING THERE’S STILL A CHANCE?

Manuel Margot showed better control, lowering his strikeout rate to 17%, his chase-rate, and his first-pitch swing-rate, which were all around the bottom of the league last year. He may not take many walks (now and later), but Margot has shown patience and the ability to wait for his pitch at times, and when he does, his raw ability and power at the plate present themselves. Even if improvements are marginal in this area, the effects would be felt throughout his entire stat line in a way that would instantly raise him a fantasy tier.

Top prospects Luis Urias and Francisco Meija are already on the 40-man roster with both having brief looks at the major league level last year, and I have to say that it’s entirely possible that both could break camp at the end of March with the Padres 25-man. Shortstop Fernando Tatis, Jr. is the best prospect in the system and among the best in all of baseball and as a content creator, I am contractually obligated to mention him at least once every post, but he played only 88 games at the Double-A level last year because of a thumb injury in July and could put the entire infield in flux if he were to be called up. Post Super-Two blues is my guess when we’ll see him…

2019 Projected Rotation and Stats*
Order POS Pos W IP ERA WHIP K
1 Joey Lucchesi SP 10 169.0 3.78 1.27 171
2 Robbie Erlin SP 8 140.0 4.05 1.28 112
3 Bryan Mitchell SP 2 47.0 4.62 1.49 35
4 Eric Lauer SP 7 134.0 4.25 1.37 122
5 Luis Perdomo SP 1 18.0 4.27 1.42 14

At the major league level last year, Brett Kennedy (not shown in the above table) made six starts, going 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. In 26 innings of work, he gave up 36 hits, six home runs, and 12 walks while striking out just 18. For a chance to make the starting rotation, Kennedy must retain better control of his fastball (used more than 65% of the time). While he has some raw ability, the velocity for his fastball just isn’t there (91 mph) and the movement leaves much to be desired. However, if he does improve his command, there could be some value, especially when pitching at PetCo.

In addition to the Padres’ grouping of prospects on offense, they have a trio of starting pitchers expected to land in the majors at some point in 2019, which would help the atrocious rotation previously.Right-handers Chris Paddack and Cal Quantrill and lefty Logan Allen all have shown potential and have pitched very well during their assignments.

2019 Projected Bullpen and Stats*
Role Player Pos W SV ERA WHIP K
Closer Kirby Yates RP 3 28 3.26 1.13 84
Setup Matthew Strahm RP 3 2 3.39 1.20 65
Relief Craig Stammen RP 3 4 3.62 1.25 65
Relief Phil Maton RP 2 0 3.97 1.30 36
Relief Jose Castillo RP 2 0 3.48 1.26 54
Relief Miguel Diaz SP 1 0 3.94 1.38 27
Relief Trey Wingenter SP 3 2 3.57 1.32 66

Miguel Diaz has filthy stuff, and while he may be considered for the rotation, he may be more suited for the bullpen longterm as he works fast, aggressive and has limited control. Prospects such as Gerardo Reyes, or the reemergence of Robbie Erlin (who recovered from Tommy John Surgery) are both slated to be considered for rotation spots, but Erlin is the more likely of the two with staying power.

Trey Wingenter landed on to the scene with his filthy fastball that has been clocked in the triple digits. He’s shown complete dominance at times (striking out 27 batters in 19 innings as a rookie with a 3.79 ERA) but still has issues with his lefty-righty splits and has to show imporvement against left-handed hitters to reach the late-inning roles.

Robert Stock is my “closer-in-waiting sleeper” and much like Wingenter, he brings the heat with a fastball that averages 97.5 MPH and an ability to throw 99+ MPH multiple times in an outing. In 39 innings, Stock struck out 38 batters with a  2.50 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. If the Padres decide to trade one of Stammen or Yates, Stock may grab the role, but it should be noted that the Padres have played around with the idea of starting Stock against certain teams with pitch limitations, perhaps offering additive value is some leagues.

*All projected stats provided by Steamer.

 

 

Want more of the Jay? Don’t we all folks? Don’t. We. All. Well, you, in fact, can have more. AMAZING. I know. You can find Jay enjoying his dig’s over at the Football side of Razz.

  1. Grey

    Grey says:
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    Not one Chase Headley mention, it’s a sad day….

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Grey: I mean, even I need to take a Headley break once and awhile…

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Like the frozen entree Cougs is eating for lunch, a healthy choice!

        • Jay

          Jay says:
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          @Grey: Haha, all in moderation!

  2. The Great Knoche says:
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    Who gets least amount of ABs?

    Reyes
    Margot
    Renfroe

    • Turd Fergusons says:
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      well its Margot vs Franchy in center. Renfroe vs Reyes in right. Myers in left. My money is on Myers getting hurt, Reyes getting traded, and ABs go to Margot, Franchy, Renfroe. I love Reyes tho and hope he can land somewhere he can get everyday ABs

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @The Great Knoche: Maybe Reyes, I think the Pads want to give Margot and Renfroe the bulk.

  3. Phil B. says:
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    That is a sad list of additions. and no Hunter Renfroe? He’s an OPS god (at least I’m betting on that this year).

    Good stuff Jay.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Phil B.: Yeah, it’s hard to do write-ups like these since every other preview out there will talk about the obvious stuff. Sometimes there’s no choice to talk about, say Tatis or something, but I wanted to focus Margot and the bullpen. Thanks for the kind words though Phil!

  4. nightpandas says:
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    Jay, what ya think about this trade? Im in an obp keeper not likely competing this year. 15 teams keep 11

    Give Corey Seager, get Tatis Jr and Eddie Rosario

    Keepers right now: Vlad, Eloy, Seager, Othani x2 (yahoo), Enciarte, Wheeler, Mikolas, Lucchessi, and two of Meadows, Desmond, CSantana, Adell, Heaney

    • LenFuego says:
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      @nightpandas: That deal is a steal for you. Take it before the other owner’s sanity is restored.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @nightpandas: I’d do it. You’re getting a blue-chipper with a chance to land at SS and a solid piece for a guy who won’t help you when Tatis will.

  5. Charles Stevens says:
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    Franchy Cordero is one of the most exciting young players in MLB. He hit a 489 foot home run last year and had an average(AVERAGE!) exit velocity of 94.7 mph. That number is in the company of guys like Stanton, Cruz, Chapman and Judge. He also had a sprint speed of 29.5 MPH(good for top 25 in all of MLB). He’s very raw and the strikeouts are a problem. But, point me in the direction of a player with more power and better speed that no one is talking about. I’ll wait.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Charles Stevens: Yeah, I agree! The only thing that will keep him back, as you mentioned, is his swinging rate and walk rate. If he can just nudge those up by about 10-20 points, there could be some staggeringly good years here.

  6. Big League Wood says:
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    Would like to see a beak down of the Of and your projections of Plating Time. Where is Renfroe ion this mix? Wasn’t his second half good ???

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Big League Wood: Yes, still very early right now with Spring Training just getting started. I think Renfroe is definitely in the picture.

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