Welcome in save chasers! The closer landscape is taking shape and while Craig Kimbrell remains a free agent, most of the other dominoes have fallen. As it’s a new season, I’ll be rolling out new titling for the tiers. This week’s feature four popular 7-Eleven offerings.
Big Gulps
The crème de la crème of convenience offerings. Is there any mountain an entire liter of caffeinated beverage can’t help you climb? These hurlers get you going just like that literal pound of sugar juice.
- Edwin Diaz (Jeurys Familia, Robert Gsellman) – Diaz may have moved to Queens but he’s still the ninth inning King. His velocity was more dialed in last year, improving his effectiveness.
- Roberto Osuna (Ryan Pressly, Hector Rendon) – I rank stats, not morals.
- Blake Treinen (Fernando Rodney, Joakim Soria) – Oakland’s been a great fit. They aren’t afraid to mix options and that’s benefitted Treinen.
- Jose Leclerc (Jesse Chavez) – The Rangers have given him the closer keys to start the year. He was a buzzsaw to end last season.
- Kenley Jansen (Joe Kelly, Pedro Baez) – I expect Jansen to manage his heart condition during the offseason and be good to go when the spring rolls around. He probably can’t afford to lose much more velocity, nevertheless.
A Bag Of Chips
A totally solid snack option. Nothing spectacular here, but fulfilling. You’re going to get what you pay for with these guys.
- Aroldis Chapman (Dellin Betances / Adam Ottavino / Zach Britton) – We probably don’t get through 2019 with a Chapman DL stint, so he kicks off this tier. Good luck speculating on his backup.
- Brad Hand – Barring a signing, which Cleveland has so far shown they’re terrified of, it’s all Hand.
- Felipe Vazquez (Keona Kela, Richard Rodriguez) – Not much to see here.
- Kirby Yates (Craig Stammen, Jose Castillo) – Yates is rising up boards fast. He’s one of favorite tier 2 plays if the price doesn’t explode.
- Sean Doolittle (Kyle Barraclough, Trevor Rosenthal) – Health has been the only question with Doolittle.
- Wade Davis (Seung-Hwan Oh) – The Rockies do rack up save opportunities with how much they lean on the pen.
- Cody Allen (Ty Buttrey) – Allen landed a pretty clear gig in LA. Buttrey is green and should be well served in a setup role.
- Corey Knebel (Josh Hader, Jeremy Jeffress) — Seems like the hierarchy, unless Hader begins to tweet for Knebel.
- Ken Giles (Ryan Tepera) – Oddly enough Giles punched himself in the face more than he had blown saves last season (1-0).
- Will Smith (Mark Melancon, Tony Watson) – Melancon probably deserves to be ranked as co-closer, but I have no faith in him holding up.
- Raisel Iglesias (Jared Hughes, David Hernandez) – With a new coaching staff, we’ll have to see what the back end shakes out like.
Crappy Coffee
It might taste burnt and stale, but the part you’re after is the caffeine bump. There’s usually a trade-off in life. Your ratios ballooning might be the one here.
- Chaz Roe / Jose Alvarado (Deigo Castillo) – We need more to go on in this pen. I’ll be paying close attention in spring training.
- Jordan Hicks / Andrew Miller – I’d prefer Miller despite the chance he gets a fireman role. I just don’t have that much faith in Hicks to have a smooth season.
- Archie Bradley (Greg Holland, Yoshihisa Hirano) – Will Holland cause wake in a bullpen for a second straight year?
- Brad Boxberger / Wily Peralta – Peralta might be on the outside looking in after Box signed.
- Kelvin Herrera (Alex Colome, Nate Jones) – All three could be on a new team by the end of July.
- Shane Greene (Joe Jimenez) – Why didn’t the Tigers trade him again?
- Mychal Givens (Paul Fry, Richard Bleier) – I’m not buying the closer by committee talk. Givens is significantly better.
Day Old Hot Dogs
You’re drunk, but you’re hungry. This meat tube stares at you from the roller it’s sat on for a day or more. Should you roll the dice on something just as likely to make you sick as it is awful tasting? The things we do for the love of saves.
- Seranthony Dominguez / David Robertson – Your new least favorite bullpen manager, Gabe Kapler.
- Matt Barnes / Ryan Brasier / Unnamed free agent – I really can’t see this being what the defending champs go into the season with. Bud Norris would be a great fit.
- A.J. Minter / Arodys Vizcaino – Both should see their share of saves this season.
- Drew Steckenrider / Sergio Romo – I’m not sure what Romo has left in the tank. I thought the same thing last year, 25 saves ago.
- Blake Parker (Trevor May, Taylor Rogers) – We’ll need to see how this pen shakes out. The Twins have FIVE relievers that can close.
- Hunter Strickland / Anthony Swarzak – Give the nod to Strickland as the free agent signing.
- Pedro Strop / Steve Cishek / Carl Edwards, Jr. / Brandon Morrow – Morrow might be on the shelf, so expect Maddon to mix and match.
I’ve been reading as much Boston media as I can on the shituation there. I’m getting the vibe that they believe Barnes can do the job. Had a better K rate than Kimbrel. Almost identical BB rate so you know their ok with a little wildness in their closer. Nearly twice the GB rate and a lower HR%. Lower FIP and xFIP. Was a little unlucky with his BABIP.
Heard Cora on multiple occasions add the narrative of post season pressure success. He was the first person on Dombrow’s list when he said who was in the running. A chance for them to reap some reward from a former top SP prospect. Brasier’s number and track record give no reason for confidence. They’re saying they absolutely will not go over the luxury tax so they are not signing Kimbrel. My guess is they give Barnes the job early to see what they have there. If they absolutely have to address it later they’ll go the trade route.
I don’t know exactly how Tampa will handle their pen but from a skill set perspective I think Alvarado ends up in the Big Gulp tier. Went down to the minors, came back with a ridiculous cutter. K rate was 14+ with about a .5 FIP in August and September with the cutter. Triple digit heat. I think he’ll get to 25 saves and 100 Ks.
@OaktownSteve: Agree on Barnes, especially since he’s a veteran. The uncertainty is what’s keeping them low in my ranks at the moment, not ability.
I think highly of Alvarado, it just gives me pause that he’s a lefty.
I believe in Barnes
@OaktownSteve: I saw you mention on Grey’s post. It was me that was pushing you to admit your closer, after you mentioned you found your Treinen for this year. But I’m thinking it was Alvarado you had on the mind and not Barnes at that moment, given our back and forth on that post? Either way, appreciate your insights, OTS.
https://razzball.com/eduardo-rodriguez-2019-fantasy-baseball-sleeper/#comment-2837663
Somehow the Brewers got left on the cutting floor (stupid user error). They would slot between Cody Allen and Ken Giles for me, with Corey Knebel as the lead dog.
Fixed
@Grey: Thanks Skipper.
No problem
So, is Jeffress in a setup role for the Crew? He was pretty good before the playoff meltdown, especially while Knebel was in AAA. Could he vulture some saves?
@Drew: I think all three guys in that pen see a good amount of saves. Hader probably gets some shots to close if the matchups are right. Jeffress works in somewhere, probably less than the other two in save opps though.
I’m pretty off Osuna. The K rate took a dive as the whiff percentage on the fastball cratered. His K rate wasn’t that high earlier in his career anyway. Presley is sitting right behind him too. I won’t own him this year.
@OaktownSteve: I might be reading into what Houston wants too much, but they left Giles as the closer through far worse. Seems like they just want a defined 9th inning guy and to keep the best arms flexible for other innings.
@Roto-Wan:
I hear you, but if he tanks, they’ll make a change. If Pressley is anything like last year he’s a premium option
@OaktownSteve: Oh I love Pressly. He’s a top 5 non-closer for me.
@Roto-Wan:
Who are your top 5 non closers?
@Jon: Betances, Andrew Miller, Pressly, Ottavino, Nate Jones, Jose Castillo. Roughly in that order.
BLASPHEMY!!!!!!!!
One of the best blurbs in Razzball history, and you change it! No it is $12 Salads, Donkeycorns, Employed, and of course Brain Freezes starring Carlos Marmol. C’mon Man
@Ken plane: Haha. While I greatly appreciate Smokey allowing me to borrow his tiers to finish out 2018, I feel like it’s only right to forge my own path, the lack of Carlos Marmol be damned.
@Roto-Wan: Ah newbie, newbie, those were Grey’s original tiers.
@Ken Plane: salads etc were tired 3 years ago!
@Bill: don’t worry, we’ll have fun with it.
Haha. While I greatly appreciate Smokey allowing me to borrow his tiers to finish out 2018, I feel like it’s only right to forge my own path, the lack of Carlos Marmol be damned.
Love the post. In a league of 2sp, 2rp, and 5p (10 team h2h categories w, qs, k, k/9, era, whip, hr, sv+hld) how many RP would you draft? What tiers would you target or what rounds? Happy to hear any razzballer’s thoughts too
@Curious George: That depends on your league landscape. What do most managers do? I’d like 3-4 RPs generally. The top-priced guys scare me this year. Some of my favorite targets are Jose Leclerc, Kirby Yates, Cody Allen, and Hunter Strickland.
@Roto-Wan: other managers carried anywhere from 2 to 5 RP last year. TBD on their plans this year as many were left looking for RP help last year and may make an adjustment. With the shift in mlb strategy giving us fewer true closers, im half tempted to punt saves and focus on high upside arms with good shots at holds or occasional saves. Something like Leclerc, Allen, Miller, and Barnes.
@Curious George: Do you think you’d finish higher than last in saves with that crew?
@Roto-Wan: since it’s saves+holds? Not sure. Running a mock now to see where that puts me relative to the pack.
@Curious George: holds come less frequently than saves. If you want to go the route of set up men you might need five. If you get daily lineup changes that’s easier to do.
@Curious George: I play in a league w/ a similar format and have done well going RP heavy (and spending almost all of my early picks on bats) for years. Depending on bench size and move limits (daily v weekly or, in the case of my league, severely limiting annual pickup restrictions), you could do well having all of your P slots occupied by RP on a daily basis. The idea is you put yourself at an advantage in 5 of 8 pitching cats pretty much every week, and because you’re mostly drafting bats while midlevel SPs and fancy closers are going off the board, you also have a sick offense. So my roster will typically have 1 decent closer (someone from the back end of the top 10 who I think has a shot at ending in the top 5), 2 cheap closers, 3 awesome setup men, 1-2 strong SP, and then the bench is filled out w/ midlevel SP from the mid-late rounds for streaming, etc. (because as everyone else is filling out their offense during that time you can just draft SP after SP and still have your pick of good setup men in the late rounds).
@Steve Stevenson: I usually do this in one league each year. It can be tight, but it’s usually effective.
@Roto-Wan: Yeah. H2H categories is the perfect format for it, though. Assuming the same # of hitting cats, it’s not hard to build an offense that’s pretty dominant in at least 5 cats if that’s all you’re really worried about for most of the first 9 rounds or so.
Gotta list Jeffress for Brew Crew.
@zuleta: he’ll be in there next go round. The Brewers line got deleted in the initial post because I have fat fingers.
NL-only 5×5 keeper, keep $2 Vizcaino or $7 Minter? FWIW there’s a strong possibility I don’t come out of the auction with another closer, and pickups are limited (you pretty much have to have a guy hit the DL or get sent down to make a move).
@Steve Stevenson: alternatively, i can keep both but it’d require throwing back a $3 luis castillo, $1 freeland or $3 bader (in which case i’d also only be keeping 3 bats)
@Steve Stevenson: I’d take the savings with Viz and cross your fingers.