2015 Minor League Preview: New York Mets

Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America
2014 (10) | 2013 (16) | 2012 (24) | 2011 (20) | 2010 (25)

2014 Affiliate Records
MLB: [79-83] NL East
AAA: [81-63] Pacific Coast League – Las Vegas
AA: [83-59] Eastern League – Binghamton
A+: [76-62] Florida State League – St. Lucie
A: [85-51] South Atlantic League – Savannah
A(ss): [42-34] New York-Penn League – Brooklyn

Graduated Prospects
Travis d’Arnaud, C | Jake deGrom, RHP | Jeurys Familia, RHP | Wilmer Flores INF

The Gist
This is a strong farm system that boasts both talent up the middle and arms to bolster a young rotation headlined by Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Jacob deGrom. Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud were acquired in the R.A. Dickey trade, and with Syndergaard arriving sometime this summer, Mets fans will finally see the fruits of that trade at Citi Field. Dilson Herrera should also stick in the majors at some point this season. One of 2014’s pleasant surprises was the recently graduated deGrom, who will look to build on a 2014 rookie campaign in which he posted a 2.69 ERA with 144 strikeouts in 140 innings pitched. After a demotion to Triple-A early in the year, Travis d’Arnaud also posted good numbers with 13 homers in 421 plate appearances.

Top Ten Fantasy Prospects

1. Noah Syndergaard, RHP | Age: 22 | ETA: 2015

Syndergaard is one of a handful of arms in the minors that I would be willing to pay the high price for in fantasy. The 80 fastball, along with a plus curveball and changeup, could yield big strikeout totals at the major league level. He’ll also call pitching-friendly Citi Field his home park and he’s close to the majors. In fact, there’s a good chance the 22-year-old will be up at some point this summer, and he’ll add more firepower to a rotation that already features some great young arms. One highlight from his 2014 season was leading the hitter-friendly PCL in strikeouts despite being the 12th-youngest player in the league and pitching in one of its toughest home parks.

2. Amed Rosario, SS | Age: 19 | ETA: 2018

Rosario’s upside gives him the edge over fellow middle infielder Dilson Herrera despite being much further away. As one of the youngest players in the NYPL, Rosario held his own in just his second pro season. He even had a taste of A-ball at Savannah for 31 plate appearances. There’s the potential for ~20 homers with high batting averages (.280+), and there is also a good chance he stays at the shortstop position for the long haul. That makes him a tempting option for dynasty owners that have a place to stash the youngster for the next three years.

3. Dilson Herrera, 2B | Age: 20 | ETA: 2015

Herrera’s only roadblock to the majors is Daniel Murphy, and the 20-year-old could get a shot later this season. That makes him relevant in deeper redraft formats in 2015. Herrera already saw the majors last year – hitting .220 in 66 plate appearances but also popping three homers. The low batting average from that small sample is deceiving since Herrera actually has an above average hit tool with the potential to hit .270+ in the majors one day. Couple that with 12-15 homer power and double-digit speed for a solid option in your middle infield slot.

4. Michael Conforto, OF | Age: 21 | ETA: 2016

Plus power from the left side and an ETA that isn’t light years away make Conforto one of the better fantasy options in this system. The Mets selected him 10th overall in the 2014 draft and I have him ranked in the top ten among the 2014 signees for fantasy as well. Conforto’s defense will likely limit him to left field, but there’s the potential for 25 home runs at the major league level. That’s useful in all fantasy formats. Even with only a half year of professional bats under his belt, Conforto will probably head straight to Hi-A St. Lucie to start the year.

5. Brandon Nimmo, OF | Age: 21 | ETA: 2016

Nimmo doesn’t have the same raw pop as Conforto, but he offers a more balanced package in fantasy. The two could easily be flipped when you consider that Nimmo is younger and has already had a 65-game taste of Double-A. The upside is there for 15/15 or even 20/20 seasons with high averages and excellent on base percentages. The knock on him is that he isn’t aggressive enough and needs to tap into the power more in games. That could certainly come in 2015, where he’ll start the year in Double-A after struggling in his first stint at the level. Both Nimmo and Conforto could help the big league club as early as 2016.

6. Kevin Plawecki, C | Age: 23 | ETA: 2015

With Travis d’Arnaud already behind the plate at the major league level, it’s hard to pinpoint when Plawecki will be up or exactly what his role will be. It’s possible he has to wait until 2016 to get a real shot even if he proves ready this summer. Once he does settle in he’ll be relevant in fantasy leagues thanks to an above average hit tool and average power. In 2014, Plawecki split time between Double-A and Triple-A. He’ll head back to Las Vegas to start the year in 2015, where he’ll likely put up some nice stats in one of the more hitter-friendly home parks of the PCL.

7. Dominic Smith, 1B | Age: 19 | ETA: 2017

This was obviously not the stat line many were expecting from Smith in his first full season, but it’s also not time to hit the panic button or drastically change projections just yet. Savannah isn’t ideal for hitting bombs, but it’s not like he hit any on the road either. While there was hardly any power, it’s still early in the game for the 19-year-old first baseman and power is typically the last tool to develop. Smith did show a plus hit tool, but he’s going to be pretty yawnstipating outside of deep leagues if there isn’t at least 15-20 homers to go along with it. Given his age, I’d afford him another year or two if you’re a dynasty league owner, but don’t be afraid to cut the cord if the power continues to flatline.

8. Steven Matz, LHP | Age: 23 | ETA: 2016

Matz has a nice arsenal of three above average pitches – fastball, curveball, and changeup. The 23-year-old lefty has already had success at the Double-A level and will likely see Triple-A at some point in 2015. When that happens, take his results with a grain of salt in the PCL and focus more on the scouting reports coming out on him. Even though his ceiling is limited to a #3 starter, he makes a nice add in deeper dynasty formats thanks to solid strikeout potential, good control, and a pitcher-friendly home in the bigs.

9. Rafael Montero, RHP | Age: 24 | ETA: 2015

Montero barely qualifies for this list with 44.1 MLB innings pitched already under his belt. He doesn’t have the same raw stuff as the arms ahead of him here, but he does have value thanks to his proximity to a rotation spot. Like Randall Delgado in Arizona, Montero will find himself on the outside looking in to start the year, but may be the first arm called upon to plug any holes that develop in the big league rotation. The 24-year-old right-hander had a career worst 3.7 BB/9 in 2014, but maintained a solid strikeout rate. If you’re in a deep league or NL-only format, he’s a cheap sleeper who just needs a break to go from swingman to starter again.

10. Marcos Molina, RHP | Age: 19 | ETA: 2018

If his ETA wasn’t so far away I think Molina would rank much higher, but in this system (which is pretty strong) he’s more of a lottery ticket in fantasy leagues at this point. In short season ball it’s easier to get by with the double-plus fastball – even as one of the younger players in the league – but the arsenal will be tested more as he progresses to the upper levels of the minors. Still, there’s #3 starter potential here and he’s a worthy stash in most deeper dynasty formats.

Mets Previews: 2014 | 2013

NL T10 Prospects Index