Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America
2014 (10) | 2013 (16) | 2012 (24) | 2011 (20) | 2010 (25)

2014 Affiliate Records
MLB: [79-83] NL East
AAA: [81-63] Pacific Coast League – Las Vegas
AA: [83-59] Eastern League – Binghamton
A+: [76-62] Florida State League – St. Lucie
A: [85-51] South Atlantic League – Savannah
A(ss): [42-34] New York-Penn League – Brooklyn

Graduated Prospects
Travis d’Arnaud, C | Jake deGrom, RHP | Jeurys Familia, RHP | Wilmer Flores INF

The Gist
This is a strong farm system that boasts both talent up the middle and arms to bolster a young rotation headlined by Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Jacob deGrom. Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud were acquired in the R.A. Dickey trade, and with Syndergaard arriving sometime this summer, Mets fans will finally see the fruits of that trade at Citi Field. Dilson Herrera should also stick in the majors at some point this season. One of 2014’s pleasant surprises was the recently graduated deGrom, who will look to build on a 2014 rookie campaign in which he posted a 2.69 ERA with 144 strikeouts in 140 innings pitched. After a demotion to Triple-A early in the year, Travis d’Arnaud also posted good numbers with 13 homers in 421 plate appearances.

Top Ten Fantasy Prospects

1. Noah Syndergaard, RHP | Age: 22 | ETA: 2015

W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB/9 K/9 AVG
9 7 4.60 26 26 0 133.0 154 77 68 11 2.9 9.8 .293

Syndergaard is one of a handful of arms in the minors that I would be willing to pay the high price for in fantasy. The 80 fastball, along with a plus curveball and changeup, could yield big strikeout totals at the major league level. He’ll also call pitching-friendly Citi Field his home park and he’s close to the majors. In fact, there’s a good chance the 22-year-old will be up at some point this summer, and he’ll add more firepower to a rotation that already features some great young arms. One highlight from his 2014 season was leading the hitter-friendly PCL in strikeouts despite being the 12th-youngest player in the league and pitching in one of its toughest home parks.

2. Amed Rosario, SS | Age: 19 | ETA: 2018

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
321 41 81 11 6 2 27 5.6% 18.1% 7 3 .274 .320 .372

Rosario’s upside gives him the edge over fellow middle infielder Dilson Herrera despite being much further away. As one of the youngest players in the NYPL, Rosario held his own in just his second pro season. He even had a taste of A-ball at Savannah for 31 plate appearances. There’s the potential for ~20 homers with high batting averages (.280+), and there is also a good chance he stays at the shortstop position for the long haul. That makes him a tempting option for dynasty owners that have a place to stash the youngster for the next three years.

3. Dilson Herrera, 2B | Age: 20 | ETA: 2015

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
587 98 169 33 5 13 71 8.0% 16.4% 23 7 .323 .379 .479

Herrera’s only roadblock to the majors is Daniel Murphy, and the 20-year-old could get a shot later this season. That makes him relevant in deeper redraft formats in 2015. Herrera already saw the majors last year – hitting .220 in 66 plate appearances but also popping three homers. The low batting average from that small sample is deceiving since Herrera actually has an above average hit tool with the potential to hit .270+ in the majors one day. Couple that with 12-15 homer power and double-digit speed for a solid option in your middle infield slot.

4. Michael Conforto, OF | Age: 21 | ETA: 2016

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
186 30 54 10 0 3 19 8.6% 15.6% 3 0 .331 .403 .448

Plus power from the left side and an ETA that isn’t light years away make Conforto one of the better fantasy options in this system. The Mets selected him 10th overall in the 2014 draft and I have him ranked in the top ten among the 2014 signees for fantasy as well. Conforto’s defense will likely limit him to left field, but there’s the potential for 25 home runs at the major league level. That’s useful in all fantasy formats. Even with only a half year of professional bats under his belt, Conforto will probably head straight to Hi-A St. Lucie to start the year.

5. Brandon Nimmo, OF | Age: 21 | ETA: 2016

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
558 97 130 21 9 10 51 15.4% 18.8% 14 4 .278 .394 .426

Nimmo doesn’t have the same raw pop as Conforto, but he offers a more balanced package in fantasy. The two could easily be flipped when you consider that Nimmo is younger and has already had a 65-game taste of Double-A. The upside is there for 15/15 or even 20/20 seasons with high averages and excellent on base percentages. The knock on him is that he isn’t aggressive enough and needs to tap into the power more in games. That could certainly come in 2015, where he’ll start the year in Double-A after struggling in his first stint at the level. Both Nimmo and Conforto could help the big league club as early as 2016.

6. Kevin Plawecki, C | Age: 23 | ETA: 2015

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
419 58 116 24 0 11 64 7.2% 11.5% 0 0 .309 .365 .460

With Travis d’Arnaud already behind the plate at the major league level, it’s hard to pinpoint when Plawecki will be up or exactly what his role will be. It’s possible he has to wait until 2016 to get a real shot even if he proves ready this summer. Once he does settle in he’ll be relevant in fantasy leagues thanks to an above average hit tool and average power. In 2014, Plawecki split time between Double-A and Triple-A. He’ll head back to Las Vegas to start the year in 2015, where he’ll likely put up some nice stats in one of the more hitter-friendly home parks of the PCL.

7. Dominic Smith, 1B | Age: 19 | ETA: 2017

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
518 52 125 26 1 1 44 9.8% 14.9% 5 4 .271 .344 .338

This was obviously not the stat line many were expecting from Smith in his first full season, but it’s also not time to hit the panic button or drastically change projections just yet. Savannah isn’t ideal for hitting bombs, but it’s not like he hit any on the road either. While there was hardly any power, it’s still early in the game for the 19-year-old first baseman and power is typically the last tool to develop. Smith did show a plus hit tool, but he’s going to be pretty yawnstipating outside of deep leagues if there isn’t at least 15-20 homers to go along with it. Given his age, I’d afford him another year or two if you’re a dynasty league owner, but don’t be afraid to cut the cord if the power continues to flatline.

8. Steven Matz, LHP | Age: 23 | ETA: 2016

W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB/9 K/9 AVG
10 9 2.25 24 24 0 140.0 142 44 35 3 2.2 8.4 .251

Matz has a nice arsenal of three above average pitches – fastball, curveball, and changeup. The 23-year-old lefty has already had success at the Double-A level and will likely see Triple-A at some point in 2015. When that happens, take his results with a grain of salt in the PCL and focus more on the scouting reports coming out on him. Even though his ceiling is limited to a #3 starter, he makes a nice add in deeper dynasty formats thanks to solid strikeout potential, good control, and a pitcher-friendly home in the bigs.

9. Rafael Montero, RHP | Age: 24 | ETA: 2015

W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB/9 K/9 AVG
6 4 3.45 18 18 0 86.0 74 44 33 4 3.7 9.1 .231

Montero barely qualifies for this list with 44.1 MLB innings pitched already under his belt. He doesn’t have the same raw stuff as the arms ahead of him here, but he does have value thanks to his proximity to a rotation spot. Like Randall Delgado in Arizona, Montero will find himself on the outside looking in to start the year, but may be the first arm called upon to plug any holes that develop in the big league rotation. The 24-year-old right-hander had a career worst 3.7 BB/9 in 2014, but maintained a solid strikeout rate. If you’re in a deep league or NL-only format, he’s a cheap sleeper who just needs a break to go from swingman to starter again.

10. Marcos Molina, RHP | Age: 19 | ETA: 2018

W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB/9 K/9 AVG
7 3 1.78 12 12 0 76.0 46 18 15 2 2.1 10.8 .238

If his ETA wasn’t so far away I think Molina would rank much higher, but in this system (which is pretty strong) he’s more of a lottery ticket in fantasy leagues at this point. In short season ball it’s easier to get by with the double-plus fastball – even as one of the younger players in the league – but the arsenal will be tested more as he progresses to the upper levels of the minors. Still, there’s #3 starter potential here and he’s a worthy stash in most deeper dynasty formats.

Mets Previews: 2014 | 2013

NL T10 Prospects Index

  1. soft toss aces says:
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    Hey mike excellent write up as ususl have a quick question keep 25 dynasty league h2h keepers due Sunday have 4 pitching prospects to pick from only keep 2 between wisler aj cole sims and cj edwards who would you keep im thinking wisler and edwards thanks again for the help

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      thanks! I would go Cole, Wisler there

      • DrimlsDaddy says:
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        @Mike:
        That takes away his boy cj ed mike!! Lol. I’m in this lge w this guy. He truly is a soft toss ace guy lol. I’d personally go wisler, cj ed. Do you think with jzimm and fister being fa’s next year that aj is safer? Cj Ed is undersized rt?

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          Yeah, I think the rotation will open up for Cole, and Wisler is a boring but safer bet than Edwards

  2. Jeff P says:
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    Rotation:
    Harvey
    Wheeler
    DeGrom
    Syndergaard
    Matz

    1. CF Lagares
    2. RF Nimmo
    3. 3B Wright
    4. 1B Duda
    5. LF Nimmo
    6. C D’Arnaud
    7. SS Flores
    8. 2B Herrera

    Ladies and Gentelmen, your 2016 Mets! Oh well, one can dream. I know Cuddyer and Grandy are not going anywhere, and Niese is probably going to keep his job. But this team looks like it could compete.

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      looks solid!

    • Bombo Rivera says:
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      @Jeff P: Nimmo’s gonna have to cover a lot of ground. He should rack up lots of counting stats, though.

  3. Goose! says:
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    Around what round range would you target Herrera in a 12 team keeper league with obp/slg/hr/rbi/r/sb as the categories? There’s 24 rounds total

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      I think you can wait a bit on him, since he won’t be up to start the year. Just off the cuff thinking maybe round 18 or later.

      • notBaezaworldseries says:
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        @Mike: What about a 16 team RazzNasty league?

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          haha…take him with your next pick of course

    • Wallpaper Paterson says:
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      @Goose!: round 22,,23 or 24

  4. notKid A says:
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    A hypothetical:

    Say you were a huge Phillies fan doing a fresh draft in a dynasty league and were able to land neither Maikel nor Crawford, how much of a failure would you feel like?

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      I’d love to answer that question, but you’ll have to wait until I’m done screaming into a pillow

      • Baezaworldseries says:
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        @Mike: A pillow with Maikel Franco’s picture on it, no doubt.

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          heart-shaped drool stains

          • Birdmann says:
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            @Mike: I am dying inside, that is so funny

  5. Yescheese says:
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    Much like Asheville is a boon to my fantasy prospects, Savannah just sucks all the sex hype trade value from any of my Mets prospects. I hate savannah for this

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      yeah, it’s not ideal for hitters…best to give Dom some time before cutting him loose or selling

  6. John says:
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    Mike you are killing it. If you could get a more, like say a top 100 prospect along with Rosario, would you deal Crawford for him? Or is crawford more valuable since he will stay at SS, move quick and has a good hit tool?

    Thanks for your time

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Thanks John! It depends what the other piece is. I value Crawford pretty highly and there’s about a 20+ player drop between them in my rankings…and that’s with me being pretty aggressive with my ranking of Rosario.

  7. Alan says:
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    Listen Mike, regarding the Mets. I am scared shitless of Wright. I see Zim and Carp as pretty much safer and or nearly equal. Am I nuts to trade Wright for one of them plus, in a dynasty league? I know it would suck to see wright bounce back but no way that happens, (w)right? Thanks man

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      no problem…I don’t think that’s nuts, but it depends on what the other piece is

      • Alan says:
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        @Mike: How about like a 2nd or 3rd rd in our upcoming draft? 15 teams – 15 minor league and 30 mlb. Thanks again

        • Alan says:
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          @Alan: Or I could get soria

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          I’d hold Crawford…no problem!

  8. Derekmal says:
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    Hi Mike,

    You seem a little lower on Matz than the industry. I’m seeing some Top 10 lists with Matz much higher, and a #2 starter upside attached to him.

    Any particular reasons why you’re not as high?

    Thanks!

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      I’ve seen the #2 ceiling but I’ve also seen #4 in reports on him. So I split the difference at a #3, which is still really good! I guees in terms of his ranking within this top ten, it’s more my preference to bet on bats in fantasy. Matz is pretty clearly the best pitching prospect in this system after Thor though.

  9. MB says:
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    Mike, I was offered piscotty and lewis thorpe for devon travis.

    I own these

    C – Plawecki, Swihart
    1B – Kyle Parker, Christian Walker, Vogelbach
    2B – Alcantara, Travis
    SS – Russell, J P Crawford
    3B – Nunez, Franco
    OF – Buxton, Renfroe, Winker, Arcia, Coulter, Mazara, McKinney, Rymer, Nimmo

    P – Giolito, Appel, Urias, Stroman, Norris, Ryu, D Holland

    Thanks!

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      I’d take Piscotty

  10. And Now the John Lovitz Dancers! says:
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    16 team H2H league with hits/OPS/holds/QS 7X7. keepers are arenado/goldy/upton/soler/ozuna/cobb. c/1b/2b/ss/3b/ 3 OF/ 2 util. 2 SP/ 1 RP/ 5 P slots. 5 BN, 2 DL, 1 NA. Only 4 adds per week, so can’t stream much. Lot of leeway on how many RP to SP here with all those P slots. What’s a good amount of RP and SP here?

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      I think in H2H you’d want quantity of starters

      • And Now the John Lovitz Dancers! says:
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        @Mike: so 7-8 with 4-6 RP (only 6 if i go no BN hitters, and i’ll probably have 1)

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          yup, that makes sense

  11. DrimlsDaddy says:
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    Same lge as ol Soft Toss Ace. 12tm, standard 5×5, h2h, keep 25 of 36.
    I’m pretty set on my top 22-23 but am struggling with how to align my last 2-3 keeps, could u please weigh in? Thx, love ur dyno work.

    C-
    1b – Rizzo
    2b- Cano
    3b- machado
    SS-
    Ci- pujols
    Mi- rendon
    OF x 4- j upton, springer, yoenis, soler
    Utility-
    Bn- sano, correa, Dahl, Clint Frazier

    P x8- kluber, jzimm, cashner, stroman, arrieta, carrasco, taijuan, Cody Allen.
    Bn- Archie, giolito

    That puts me at 23 with 2 to go, who ya got?
    Wilin Rosario, Wilmer Flores, josh Harrison, Alfaro, mike Taylor, gab Guerrero, Tim Anderson.
    Britton, Heaney, berrios, manaea, kazmir.

    I’m basically between Tim Anderson, Wilmer Flores, Harrison, Britton, Heaney, manaea.
    Damn it’s tough. Like the upside of Tim A, Flores would give me a shot at weak position too but also wonder if Britton, Harrison provide me with that now factor. Do I consider dropping anyone that I have kept like allen? Anyhow that’s my dilemma, thx for bearing w the long question. Which 2 of 6?? Thx a million Mike!!

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      The team looks ready to compete now and you have some good specs already. I’d go with Rosario and Harrison

  12. Swfcdan says:
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    Hi big guy, getting real deep in my slow dynasty draft, I say slow but its moved really quickly which is good (god bless autopicks!), now in rnd 36/40.

    Scouring the draft room for some final prospects, some interesting names Ive found that seem to have fallen off prospect radars for one reason or another:

    G Cecchini, K Parker, C Kelly, T May.

    You still like these guys right? The top 100 on most lists nearly all seem to be gone, but these guys seem interesting, can’t let a bad cup of coffee downgrade them too much surely. Amazing how they’ve fallen off the cliffs of most prospect rankings Ive read. If you can rank those 4, thanks man.

    • Swfcdan says:
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      @Swfcdan: Add Eddie Rosario to that too.

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Rosario, Parker, Cecchini, Kelly, May

      • Swfcdan says:
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        @Mike: Thanks dude. You with me that these guys shouldnt plummet rankings just based on sept? I dont see any of them in the top 100 rankings lists im using, whereas I remember they all were last year.

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          lists change all the time…I’d follow the reports and not the rankings :)

  13. Matt says:
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    Hey man

    I just took Jack Flaherty in my draft, I didnt see the cards on here. You have any thoughts on him?

    Thanks for all the great work

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Anytime…he has 3 plus pitches and a #2 ceiling, but he’s a ways away (2018 ETA). Solid pick from this year’s draft and never a bad idea to bet on Cards’ pitching :)

  14. Matt says:
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    I have

    Perez, Norris at C
    Edwin, Abreu, Ortiz for 1B, CI, UT
    Howie at 2B
    Rollins Starlin at SS
    A Gordon, Moss, Revere, Pagan, Rios, T Hunter at OF
    Ryan Flaherty for IF bench

    In 5×5 roto 15 team CBS roster dynasty, will eric young have enough value to be worth rostering in a league like this?

    Thanks

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      In a 15-teamer, sure…he could get some looks at 2B as well

  15. Alan says:
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    Would you draft Ryan Brett or Darnell Sweeney first in a dynasty draft?

    Thank you Mike

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      I’d go with Brett

Comments are closed.