Well, it’s about that time folks. I’ve taken a small break from running Razzball Football to go over how my 2014 Bold Predictions turned out. If you remember, 2013 was a fantastic year for me, as I got zero predictions correct. So by “fantastic”, I mean a total sh*t-fest. Which is also Nickelback’s favorite venue. Of course I had to up my game, so showing no proof whatsoever that I knew what the heck I was doing, I decided to take on Eno Sarris of FanGraphs, mano a mano, or, in this case, mother’s basement a mother’s basement, and have a prediction competition of the ages! All of them…
Here were the terms: Eno Sarris of FanGraphs has agreed to take on your very own lovable and quite handsome Jason Longfellow (yes, that’s my name, don’t wear it out) in a duel for the ages. His bold predictions will battle my bold predictions for COMPLETE AND UTTER SUPREMACY. Sort of like Highlander. We certainly need more Sean Connery, that’s for sure. And what’s at stake in this epic battle? Heads? Lightning swords? Shinobi’s? Naw. It’s beer. That’s right, beer. Whomever get’s the most predictions right, well, the loser has to buy him a six-pack of the beer of his choice. In this case, Eno has chosen DC Brau. Great selection, but it might come with side effects such as too much hipster and listening to Mumford. My choice? Koko Brown, because Hawai’i is the greatest thing ever known to man besides ice cream and blow jobs.
Here’s what happened…
1. Ben Zobrist will hit more than 30 home runs.
Result – Ben Zobrist hit 10 home runs.
So, the power outage was actually for real. Well played sir. Well played indeed.
2. Will Venable will have a 30/30 season.
Result – Will Venable finished with a 8/11 season.
If you would have asked me which prediction of mine had the lowest probability of happening, I would have probably either gone with this one or the Bryce Harper one (below). Quite frankly, there was some grasping here when I tried to justify the 30/30 season, so it was pretty clear that I put all my faith into the homerism that runs through my veins. And, as you can see from the result, homerism paid off like it usually does. Sigh.
I got one right? Whoa. While we can all admit that both did pretty terrible at playing baseball, the prediction technically came true. So I’ll take it.
4. Freddie Freeman will not reach 15 home runs and will not have a batting average higher than .270.
Result – Freddie Freeman reached 18 home runs and had a .285 batting average.
There are no points for getting close, but even though I won’t get credit here for the prediction, it’s fair to say that his end-of-season line proved my point… that’s he’s an above-average corner that does nothing terrible, but does nothing spectacular. Kind of like me in bed. And while that’s useful, he’s certainly not a top tier guy like many pronounce him to be.
5. Troy Tulowitzki will play in at least 152 games.
Result – Troy Tulowitzki played in 91 games.
Hey, all I can say is, he looked great his first 91 games. But Troy is gonna Troy.
Result – Chris Carter finished the season with a .227 average and 37 home runs.
Okay, so the break-out sorta happened. And when it did, everyone missed the first month of said hotness because, two months before that, he was hitting .200. But in today’s run environment, 37 home runs is quite the feat, even if it comes in a package personally wrapped by Pedro Alvarez. But since I couldn’t stay vague with the prediction, apparently, the .270/40 sunk this prediction.
Result – Domonic Brown finished the season with 10 home runs.
8. Billy Hamilton will fail to steal more than 25 bases.
Result – Billy Hamilton stole 56 bases.
Yes, I know he’s fast, but what this prediction presupposed was, maybe he couldn’t hit?
Result – Rick Porcello had 15 wins, 129 strike outs, and a 3.43 ERA. Doug Fister had 16 wins, 98 strike outs, and a 2.41 ERA.
Again, there aren’t any points for coming close, but this comparison perfectly illustrates something. I’m not sure what that something is, but it probably has a little to do with the fact that Porcello and Fister are both above-average low strikeout pitchers.
Even with Josh Hamilton’s career going straight into the dumpster fire, you’d at least think 17+ home runs were a fair bet. Well… you’d be wrong.
11. Bryce Harper will hit more than 50 home runs and steal more than 30 bases.
Result – Bryce Harper did not do any of this.
As the result states, Bryce Harper did not do any of this. Not. Even. Close.
According to reports, good friend and disgusting nemesis Eno Sarris got 5 of his bold predictions correct, thus earning beer from me. What will get me through this pain, the anguish of losing, the embarrassment of it all? Easy. When I buy his beer, I’ll buy mine too. Because beer.