Well, it’s about that time folks. I’ve taken a small break from running Razzball Football to go over how my 2014 Bold Predictions turned out. If you remember, 2013 was a fantastic year for me, as I got zero predictions correct. So by “fantastic”, I mean a total sh*t-fest. Which is also Nickelback’s favorite venue. Of course I had to up my game, so showing no proof whatsoever that I knew what the heck I was doing, I decided to take on Eno Sarris of FanGraphs, mano a mano, or, in this case, mother’s basement a mother’s basement, and have a prediction competition of the ages! All of them…

Here were the terms: Eno Sarris of FanGraphs has agreed to take on your very own lovable and quite handsome Jason Longfellow (yes, that’s my name, don’t wear it out) in a duel for the ages. His bold predictions will battle my bold predictions for COMPLETE AND UTTER SUPREMACY. Sort of like Highlander. We certainly need more Sean Connery, that’s for sure. And what’s at stake in this epic battle? Heads? Lightning swords? Shinobi’s? Naw. It’s beer. That’s right, beer. Whomever get’s the most predictions right, well, the loser has to buy him a six-pack of the beer of his choice. In this case, Eno has chosen DC Brau. Great selection, but it might come with side effects such as too much hipster and listening to Mumford. My choice? Koko Brown, because Hawai’i is the greatest thing ever known to man besides ice cream and blow jobs.

Here’s what happened…

 

1. Ben Zobrist will hit more than 30 home runs.

ResultBen Zobrist hit 10 home runs. 

So, the power outage was actually for real. Well played sir. Well played indeed.

 

2. Will Venable will have a 30/30 season.

ResultWill Venable finished with a 8/11 season.

If you would have asked me which prediction of mine had the lowest probability of happening, I would have probably either gone with this one or the Bryce Harper one (below). Quite frankly, there was some grasping here when I tried to justify the 30/30 season, so it was pretty clear that I put all my faith into the homerism that runs through my veins. And, as you can see from the result, homerism paid off like it usually does. Sigh.

 

3. Oswaldo Arcia will have a better season than Wil Myers across the board.

ResultOswaldo Arcia finished the season with a .231 BA, 20 HR, 46 R, 57 RBI. Wil Myers finished the season with a .222 BA, 6 HR, 37 R, 35 RBI.

I got one right? Whoa. While we can all admit that both did pretty terrible at playing baseball, the prediction technically came true. So I’ll take it.

 

4. Freddie Freeman will not reach 15 home runs and will not have a batting average higher than .270.

ResultFreddie Freeman reached 18 home runs and had a .285 batting average.

There are no points for getting close, but even though I won’t get credit here for the prediction, it’s fair to say that his end-of-season line proved my point… that’s he’s an above-average corner that does nothing terrible, but does nothing spectacular. Kind of like me in bed. And while that’s useful, he’s certainly not a top tier guy like many pronounce him to be.

 

5. Troy Tulowitzki will play in at least 152 games.

Result – Troy Tulowitzki played in 91 games. 

Hey, all I can say is, he looked great his first 91 games. But Troy is gonna Troy.

 

6. Chris Carter will have a break-out ala Chris Davis‘ 2013 season. (.270 average and 40 home runs.)

Result – Chris Carter finished the season with a .227 average and 37 home runs. 

Okay, so the break-out sorta happened. And when it did, everyone missed the first month of said hotness because, two months before that, he was hitting .200. But in today’s run environment, 37 home runs is quite the feat, even if it comes in a package personally wrapped by Pedro Alvarez. But since I couldn’t stay vague with the prediction, apparently, the .270/40 sunk this prediction.

 

7. Domonic Brown will fail to hit more than 10 home runs in a Phillies uniform.

Result – Domonic Brown finished the season with 10 home runs.

Talk about being prescient… I feel like there should be bonus points awarded for this one. Perhaps Tehol and his undying love for Domonic Brown would like to award said points…

 

8. Billy Hamilton will fail to steal more than 25 bases.

Result – Billy Hamilton stole 56 bases.

Yes, I know he’s fast, but what this prediction presupposed was, maybe he couldn’t hit?

 

9. Rick Porcello will have more wins, more strike outs, and a lower ERA than Doug Fister.

Result – Rick Porcello had 15 wins, 129 strike outs, and a 3.43 ERA. Doug Fister had 16 wins, 98 strike outs, and a 2.41 ERA.

Again, there aren’t any points for coming close, but this comparison perfectly illustrates something. I’m not sure what that something is, but it probably has a little to do with the fact that Porcello and Fister are both above-average low strikeout pitchers.

 

10. Kole Calhoun will hit more home runs, have more RBIs and runs, and also have a higher batting average than Josh Hamilton.

ResultKole Calhoun finished the season with 17 home runs, 58 RBIs, 90 runs, and a .272 batting average. Josh Hamilton finished with 10 home runs, 44 RBIs, 43 runs, and a .263 batting average.

Even with Josh Hamilton’s career going straight into the dumpster fire, you’d at least think 17+ home runs were a fair bet. Well… you’d be wrong.

 

11. Bryce Harper will hit more than 50 home runs and steal more than 30 bases.

ResultBryce Harper did not do any of this.

As the result states, Bryce Harper did not do any of this. Not. Even. Close.

 

According to reports, good friend and disgusting nemesis Eno Sarris got 5 of his bold predictions correct, thus earning beer from me. What will get me through this pain, the anguish of losing, the embarrassment of it all? Easy. When I buy his beer, I’ll buy mine too. Because beer.

 
  1. Shin-Soo Choo Choo says:
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    Beer!

  2. gareth says:
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    Eno Sarris is one of my favorite baseball writers. His piece on the Royals (when he was mocked by some of the players in the clubhouse) was particularly memorable. He’s also a huge fan of craft beers, and I just started working in the beer/wine & liquor industry so his expertise (beergraphs!) Is a great reference.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @gareth: He’s as awesome behind the scenes as well. Just a great person who likes beer and baseball. These are powerful combos.

      • RandomItalicizedVoice says:
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        @Jay: Which brings up the inevitable question…does he dislike pants? Because if he like beer and baseball, and dislikes pants…well then we all know how that goes, now don’t we.

    • Big League Wood says:
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      @gareth:

      Link it if you can.

  3. The JoGarza says:
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    I’m willing to give you the Carter one, making you 4/11. In the world of bold predictions, that’s actually pretty good!

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @The JoGarza: Thanks! I nominate you judge for next season!

    • james says:
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      @The JoGarza:

      I would give you the carter one too, .270 with 40 dingers is nuts, and if you just put down 35 dingers, it would have been sufficiently bold.

      In my opinion, one should not be punished for being too bold, so long as you were in the right ballpark. If you predict a .300 average for a player that is a career .295 hitter, and they hit .299, then no credit, but if you predicted .300 from carter and he did it… all the credit even if he only hit .285

  4. Egg Zach Lee says:
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    Jay,

    Eno should be buying you beer since his predictions he got correctly were so vague and full of options. One of these players will… the team will produce a good SP…will be top 75 SP (75?!)..out of all the catchers, a new set of relevant ones will exist… too vague, instead of Eno’s prediction it should be Eno’s Horoscope

    Jay you got punished for having specific numbers.

    only one he gets credit for is saying Dozier’s power was real.

    Eno, buy Jay many beers!

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Egg Zach Lee: To be fair, we each had veto power over the other’s prediction.

  5. Cullen Quinn says:
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    Razzball headlines always pretend like people know who the fuck they are

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