The time has once again arrived to get wild and crazy with my procrastination! Wait, is that the right word? No. No it’s not. That’s actually my life strategy. Prescientinism is probably the word I’m looking for. It’s a totally made up word, but whatever. So here I am, back to bring you 11 BOLD (bolded for effect) predictions that may or may not come true. (Probably not.) If you missed it, last year, Eno Sarris of FanGraphs and I had a gentlemen’s battle to the death (because that’s what gentlemen do) over our predictions. Much to my sadness, I lost by only getting three right to Sarris’ five. To be fair, I got really close on a lot of the spewed boldness, so if you like pleading and excuse-making, well then technically it was a tie. But a new season brings new hope and something-something wax poetic, so let’s get bold AND beautiful (just like your mom)…

If you need a refresher, here’s how I do the bold and the beautiful… I guess I might have some splainin’ to do at the end of the year, but I’m proud to throw out the wildest, aka BOLDEST predictions out there. Trust me, these will all be two-drink minimum statements I’ll be laying down. But we ain’t calling this bold because I have a grudge against italics. And I’m not just spouting crazy for crazy’s sake… which I know, brace yourselves, is much different than you’re used to. I’m also going to be sharing evidence (possibly not sound evidence, mind you) to support my claims. And everyone does 10-lists, so I’m going to be one better, cause that’s how I roll. Right down that hill over there. Hey, you want to punch that guy 10 times? Here I am, pushing you out of the way to punch him 11 times. Then I’m quickly running, cause those be sirens I hear. So, you’re going to eat 10 of those hot dogs? Well then, challenge accepted, I’ll eat 11 hot dogs, and then eat 11 Tums to wash it all down.

 

Justin Smoak will hit at least 30 home runs.

Well, yes, I think it’s safe to say that the Smoak monster didn’t really live up to the hype, much like the last season of Lost. (Tie-in Achievement Unlocked.) What exactly happened? No one can really say. But in a day and age where power is essentially required to stay viable at a corner position, Smoak just hasn’t been up to the task. To be Frank (eh, I still prefer Jay), he’s been rather a failure of sorts, especially considering all the hype that surrounded his star potential. The hype didn’t even receive a dent after moving from Arlington to the pitching confines of Safeco. Now, fast-forward to present day, you have to wonder; Was it a function of coaching, environment, or opportunity that made him the player he is today? Or was he quite simply just a bust? Well, in baseball, it’s rarely that simple, but that shouldn’t stop us from wondering…which of the three was it? Coaching and development is a bit tough to gauge, and while you can call out guys like Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero as examples of what’s gone wrong, Kyle Seager would probably like to have a word with you. I will say, opportunity wasn’t so much an issue in the beginning, as he’s had ample time to do something…anything, but that well dried as the seasons passed by. All-in-all though, I seriously doubt playing time was an issue. That leaves the environment. We all know Safeco is a pitchers park (like most west coast parks), but until you look at his career home/road splits, you don’t really get a full grasp of how much a hinderance Smoak’s home ballpark was…

 Splits G PA H HR R RBI BB IBB AVG
Home 277 1087 196 31 95 107 128 9 0.207
Away 276 1131 243 43 113 127 110 2 0.240

Granted, there aren’t a huge jump in his raw stats, but take a look at some of his percentage stats…

 Splits OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP
Home 0.302 0.351 0.653 0.145 0.238
Away 0.316 0.407 0.723 0.167 0.281

That shows two different ball players, even more so when you see take a look at the huge BABIP difference, and then his batted ball data…

 Splits GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB
Home 0.83 16.9 % 37.7 % 45.4 % 11.9 % 9.4 %
Away 1.05 20.0 % 41.0 % 39.0 % 11.2 % 14.6 %

What jumps off the table (don’t do it bro! You’ve got a lot to live for!) is the FB% and HR/FB. Even though he hit more than six percent less flyballs, Smoak managed to hit five percent more home runs outside of Seattle. That’s certainly a notable difference.

Yes, Smoak has shown limited power in his career, hitting a combined 39 home runs in 2012 and 2013, and with an average lower than .217 and .238, respectively, yeah, well, that’s not a recipe for fantasy relevance. But based on what he’s done away from Safeco, and the fact that Rogers Centre is ranked sixth in run-scoring, seventh-best for power, and second-best for doubles, there’s some glimmer of hope here. With my prediction, maybe Smoak can get his average closer to .250 (he’s hit .240 away from Seattle) and utilize the friendly Toronto environment to hit 30 home runs (big “if”, I know!)…but let’s say he does that. I did with my prediction afterall! When you look at those numbers… well, that’s essentially Josh Donaldson, and calling Justin Smoak a top-10ish corner…pretty crazy, right?

I’m just getting started with the boldness…

 

Phil Hughes will finish the year with more strikeouts, more wins, and a lower ERA than Chris Sale.

2014 Totals

 Player W L ERA IP SO FIP WHIP
Phil Hughes 16 10 3.52 209.2 186 2.65 1.13
Chris Sale 12 4 2.17 174.0 208 2.57 0.96

As you can see, they’re not that far apart from each other…okay, well, yeah, I mean, they sort of are… (but the FIP, it’s soooo close!) So you see this is bold for a reason. While I think it’s an interesting point to make, that Hughes is close enough to Sale that his fantasy value is much higher than what it’s perceived to be (Sale is being drafted 21st overall, Phil Hughes, 133rd overall on average), there is certainly a factor to consider with Chris Sale’s foot being 100 percent when the season starts and, of course his continued health throughout the year. Now, I’ve long since been on the bandwagon that Sale is an injury risk due to, you know, everything, but that bandwagon emptied and grinded to a halt some years ago. Still, with a fractured foot, I worry just a little bit that something like this might cause physical and mechanical changes in his approach. Could be nothing, but their stats are close enough to where I can try and get bold with it. And baby, do I get bold with it.

 

Adam LaRoche will have a better season than Anthony Rizzo across the board.

Can you tell me which player is which?

Three-Year Average

PA R H HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS
Player A 608 73 135 26 85 3 0.256 0.346 0.458 0.802
Player B 558 68 129 23 69 5 0.268 0.350 0.470 0.820

2014 Totals

PA R H HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS
Player A 586 73 128 26 92 3 0.259 0.362 0.455 0.817
Player B 616 89 150 32 78 5 0.286 0.386 0.527 0.913

The two players are essentially close enough that you don’t even need to know which one is which. Though, the 2014 totals probably give it away, there isn’t this out-of-world difference. Well, there is in terms that one of these players is being drafted 12th overall, and the other is being drafted 153rd overall. So it’s not hard to imagine the gap closing, or, in this case, LaRoche outproducing Rizzo now that he’s in a park (U.S. Cellular) that ranked in the top-half in all offensive categories in 2014. (And, just in case… Player A is Adam LaRoche and Player B is, of course, Anthony Rizzo.)

 

Steven Vogt will end the year as a top-5 catcher.

Last year’s top-5 catchers (arguably) were Devin Mesoraco, Buster Posey, Russell Martin, Jonathan Lucroy, and Evan Gattis. Yes, you could probably interchange Yan Gomes and Salvador Perez in there as well , so let’s just call these players the group Vogt will have to measure up with this year. Now, besides Mesoraco and Posey, there are some potential weak spots here. Russell Martin is aging and only hit 11 homeruns in 2014. Lucroy is consistent, but only managed 13 home runs. Gattis is a catcher in name only, but has a small sample of success and some possible BABIP issues. Yan Gomes has done well the past two seasons, and hitting .280 with 15 home runs seems reasonable. And then you have Perez, who can basically do the same thing. Nothing spectacular, but in the world of catchers, helpful. So thus enters Vogt (coincidentally, “Thus Enters Vogt” is also a great name for a glam rock band), and while he’s a bit older, he’s always hit in the minor leagues, and finally received a plethora of starts and the most plate appearances at the major league level last season. With those 287 PA’s, (269 AB’s), he hit 9 home runs with a .279 average. When you prorate that to say, the average number of PA’s that Perez (606) and Gomes (518) had… 562, Vogt would have hit roughly 14 home runs. That gets him in the conversation, and with him getting starting reps from day one this year (along with a strong body of work making contact throughout his career), I am boldy proclaiming that there’s enough here to put him in the top tier for catchers.

 

Christian Yelich will have a better average, more home runs, and more stolen bases than Jacoby Ellsbury.

I was a tad bit iffy on the boldness of this one, but just looking at the consensus rankings (Ellsbury at 29, Yelich at 67), Grey’s rankings (Ellsbury at 30, Yelich at 92) and their ADP so far (Ellsbury as the 29th overall pick, Yelich as the 80th overall pick), well, that was enough to convince me to convince you that this was boldness at it’s peak. Peak boldness, if you will. I’m not a huge believer in Yelich’s power potential (the 61.6 career GB% will do that), but the overall skillset seems eerily similar to Jacoby Ellsbury “it’s not 2011” version. There’s no reason why Yelich can’t make the jump, unless Marlins park causes blindness. Which is entirely possible.

 

Jason Heyward will have a 30/30 season.

I’m not quite sure what happened to Heyward in Atlanta, but whatever it was, it wasn’t good. Okay, I’m lying. I’m pretty sure it was Fredi González that happened. Regardless, if someone needed a change of scenery (unlike B.J. Melvin Upton, who needs a change of career), it was Heyward. And maybe it’s just that simple? Question mark, because really, who knows? I’m hoping it is that simple, because no one doubts that the talent is still there. Yes, it has been about 253 games since he went 27/21 (back in 2012), but, c’mon man. Fredi González.

 

Ken Giles will end the season with more saves than Jonathan Papelbon.

I almost changed this one upon hearing of his back tightness and possible DL stint, but I feel that just adds more bold spice. Which is totally thing, probably created by Axe Body Spray or what ever that repellent is called. Add on the fact that Jonathan Papelbon will likely be traded after accumulating half a season’s worth of saves (and just as likely retaining a closing role with his new team) adds even more fuel to the bold fire. The lesson here being, don’t use Axe Body Spray and light sh*t on fire. Also, saves are everywhere around us. They are in us. Above and below. Saves are life. Or I guess they’re ghosts that watch us when we shower. If so, rawr.

 

Xander Bogaerts will end the year with more fantasy value than Mookie Betts.

Now, before you get your weapons out to physically harm me, I want this prediction to be more about Bogaerts then that of Betts. I’m very willing to accept that Mookie Betts will be a fantastic player, both in real life and fantasy, and will do some very interesting things during this season and in his career. But for some reason, Bogaerts has been forgotten. Well, granted, that reason was probably hitting .240 with 12 home runs in 594 plate appearances last year, but let’s ignore that for a bit. Especially since it doesn’t support what I’m saying. Rather, let’s remember that Bogaerts has a strong history of adjusting to every level he’s played at, but there has been an adjustment period. And let’s be fair, last year was his rookie season. It’s clear his biggest problem was the major league level breaking ball, and with strong walk rates in the minors, I’m willing to bet he just needs some time. Add in the fact that he plays shortstop, a fantasy wasteland, let’s just say I’m a believer that he’s ready to take the next step, and will end the year with more value than Betts. Some food for thought as well; Bogaerts hit .296/.389/.427 before June 1st. From June 2nd on, when Stephen Drew joined the lineup, he hit .169/.201/.279.

 

Matt Kemp will start more games than Mike Trout.

Well, this one’s just silly.

 

The Boston Red Sox 1-4 Starters will end the year with more combined fantasy value than the Los Angeles Dodgers 1-4 Starters.

This one has a lot of moving parts (that’s what she said) to it. The gist basically is; Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Justin Masterson, and Wade Miley, combined, will outproduce Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Brandon McCarthy, and Brett Anderson. (I’m not quite sure what to do with Hyun-Jin Ryu, so let’s just leave him out. The 5th starters will also be left out since there can be so much variation with that spot.) It’s a bit silly, and I could already be drinking, but I’m in the small minority that thinks this Boston rotation isn’t as bad as everyone thinks. Profoundly mediocre and unexciting? Sure. But so is my lovemaking. And in the end, there’s magic, and so there shall be here as well.

For Buchholz, 2013 seems more and more like an abberation, but his FIP and inflated BABIP in 2014 show regression is very possible. Masterson, despite the career platoon-split issues, has regression on his side as well, and Porcello will be Porcello. Wade Miley would seem to be the wild card here, and I expect some Andrew Cashner-like things, as, SPOILER ALERT, I think they are very similar pitchers. I love the K/9 last year (8.18), and all of his advanced metrics look like sauce. And I love sauce. A big key is his slider, as he used it roughly seven percent more in 2014, and batters made just 61.1% contact on his pitchers outside of the zone. It was 68.2% in 2013 and 67.0% of his career. Now, despite all of that, they are still going to be taking on Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and a resurgent (and somewhat hyped again pitcher) Brandon McCarthy. Yes, Brett Anderson may be pitching with crutches and an AARP card, but the boldness is here. It is. You can touch it. Come over here and touch it.

 

11. Bryce Harper will hit more than 50 home runs and steal more than 30 bases.

I always consider the 11th prediction to be the craziest one, but then I realize all of this is crazy. And I’m cheating a bit here, seeing as how this is exactly the same prediction I ended on last year as well, but I’m still a believer in Harper. I mean, bursitis, what is that even? Look, you want a solid reason why I beleive in him? I’ll just quote myself from last year… If you need a scientific and completely analytical reason why Harper can accomplish these lofty totals, I will merely state that he’s Bryce Harper. I love science. And so it is, and so it shall be done. Probably. Well, maybe. Sorta. Totally.

 

Have any bold predictions of your own? Share them with me! (But remember, only I can have bold AND beautiful predictions. I mean, you shouldn’t be surprised. Just look at this face…)

 

 

Want more of the Jay? Don’t we all folks? Don’t. We. All. Well, you, in fact, can have more. AMAZING. I know. You can find Jay enjoying his dig’s over at the Football side of Razz.

  1. Steve says:
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    Bold Prediction on rookie pitchers question.

    Better season: Graveman or Bradley? Would you stash either right now, if you could only pick one?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Steve: Graveman, but there might be better stash material in 10/12 team formats.

    • Malicious Phenom says:
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      @Steve: I’d go Bradley, as the Snakes are trying to trade Trevor Cahill to the Braves as we speak to make room for Archie! See my post below..

  2. Hans says:
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    Joc Pederson will finish as a top 15 outfielder

    Garrett Richards will be a top 10 pitcher

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Hans: I actually think you could call a top10 with Joc and not break a sweat.

      • apoxonbothyourhouses says:
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        @Jay: the problem with Joc is that he’ll never be a top-10 OF if he can’t learn to hit lefties. He DESTROYS RHP, but lefties give him fits. I could see a top-25 OF season in him this year, but in 3 years the kid could be top-5.

  3. Grant says:
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    As a Heyward owner, I would love for that to become reality, even close to it. Thought I got him pretty cheap in our OBP league and very excited to see him with the Cards, who always seem to bring out the best in everyone.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jay: I see what you did, you didn’t say if Smoak would hit 30 homers this year or for the rest of his career… Sneaky!

      • Jay

        Jay says:
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        @Grey: the goal was to be bold!

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Grant: yeah, they must have something in that drinking water of there’s.

  4. Colbyamoss says:
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    Zunino not Vogt leaps into the Top 5, and with a lower K rate than last year

    Drew Pomeranz becomes fantasy relevant in mixed-league

    Oswaldo Arcia and Avisail Garcia post identical numbers and decide to become one player

    TJ House is the best starter on the Indians

    Pablo actually has a decent season in Fenway (beating his streamer projection), while still posting record blubber numbers

    Dee Gordon, Billy Hamilton, and Chris Davis are busts and will cost their owners their season

    Wade Davis takes over for Greg Holland due to injury and keeps the job

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Colbyamoss: some interesting ones… Zunino certainly has the power advantage. And I know Sky would love that House prediction.

    • Brade says:
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      @Colbyamoss: I don’t think I’ll ever be able to tell Garcia and Arcia apart. I look forward to the single entity of Aviswaildo (G)arcia.

      • JP says:
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        @Brade: Love it, because I have them both on my team!

  5. Clint says:
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    Love that Phil Hughes prediction. If you’ve got one for Ervin Santana I’ll feel a whole lot better about trusting my starting pitchers to the Twinnies than I currently do.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Clint: hey, lets not get carried away here…

  6. Big Magoo

    Big Magoo says:
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    Pineda and Richards are top 10 starting pitchers

    Chris Davis hits 42 HRs and knocks in 113

    Puig is a top 5 overall player

    Leonys Martin steals 40 bases and finishes in the top 3 in MLB in runs scored

    I like your LaRoche/Rizzo and Vogt calls. I knew a Padre would show up on here somewhere…

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Big Magoo: screw you on Rizzo, a five year average is a terrible comp. Rizzo hits 35 bombs and drives in 110

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
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        @J-FOH: Get your own bold predictions

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Big Magoo: sorry three year

      • mauledbypandas says:
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        @J-FOH: I thought it was a little lame too. Can’t really take a three year average of a guy who I still young enough that he has not even had 3 years with 600PA. Still like LaRoche this year though at the price

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Big Magoo: i like then except for Puig… I think you could go top-3 there.

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
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        @Jay: You had your chance. These are my predictions buddy. Though you could’ve just made the Harper prediction and left it at that.

        • Scott says:
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          @Big Magoo: I’m backing you on the Harper prediction. Because, you know, I own him.

  7. Nicky Numbnuts says:
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    Love the Vogt Prediction. Mostly beacuse I drafted him, but still.

  8. Btdrnks says:
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    Deepish 12-team keeper points league…with the news that Archie Bradley is still a rotational candidate (as of today), any thoughts on dropping Salazar for him?

    Pitching carries a stark premium in this league and right now I’m carrying F. Hernandez. M. Bumgarner, Anibel Sanchez, D. Keuschel, M. Shoemaker, TJ House, Daniel Norris, Jose Fernandez (wish the marlins would put him on the DL already!) M. Fiers and K. Graveman.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Btdrnks: yeah, I think Salazar can be dropped at this point.

      • MP778 says:
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        @Jay:

        Do you think it is worth dropping Aaron Sanchez (TOR) for either A Bradley or K Graveman? 16 team H2H pts league with standard cats.

        • Jay

          Jay says:
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          @MP778: eh, pick your poison. Holding is fine there though.

  9. Ron says:
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    In an H2H Points league please pick 3 out of the 4 below.

    Keuchel, Paxton, Pineda, Mchugh

    And is it even close?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Ron: I think Kuechel is the odd man out. Close though, but I see less k potential there.

  10. sluggo says:
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    How do you think pompey will perform? And who would you take wacha or archer?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @sluggo: I think he’s a sagnof guy. I like Wacha a bit more.

  11. J-FOH says:
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    and the Padres will finish first in the NL west

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @J-FOH: pfft, that’s a given!

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Jay: actually I am quite jealous that the O’Mally family bought the padres. One of the best ownership family’s in baseball. Knew how to treat the fans right. If I actually had an emotional investment in real baseball and gave a crap i would consider switching sides. Bring back the brown and mustard and we’ll talk.

        • Jay

          Jay says:
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          @J-FOH: oh yeah, love the mustard and brown.

  12. jc3bagger says:
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    Better 2015: Jimmy Nelson or Archie Bradley?

    • J-FOH says:
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      @jc3bagger: Nelson since he has a rotation spot. It’s looking like Bradley will be used in long relief for now and may not get a turn til post break. AZ has too many SP’s.

      • Malicious Phenom says:
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        Making room for Archie to start:

        John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 reports that the Diamondbacks have discussed a Trevor Cahill trade with the Braves.
        This comes on the heels of a report from Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that the D-Backs “have had trade discussions” involving Cahill. The thought is that they would have to cover half of his $12 million salary for 2015 in order to move him. If Arizona was to move Cahill, it would presumably open up a spot for top prospect Archie Bradley in their starting rotation. As for Cahill, he’s coming off a rough year, but his outlook would improve with a potential move to Atlanta. Stay tuned.
        Related: Braves
        Source: John Gambadoro on Twitter
        Apr 2 – 4:22 PM
        @J-FOH:

        • J-FOH says:
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          @Malicious Phenom: trade talk, I’ll care when it happens, ethier talks have been going on for 4 months now

          • CMUTimmah says:
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            @J-FOH: Ethier talks seem to have been going on for 16 months at this point…

          • Scott says:
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            @J-FOH: It happened last night.

  13. FrankGrimes says:
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    I was hoping to see a Tommy Medica prediction here today

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @FrankGrimes: I could see him with plenty of at bats all over the place. I really like him.

      Also met him at Spring Training, really nice, humble player. Signed autographs for way longer then some other guys.

  14. Tigres says:
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    Taijuan Walker: top 10 starter. Boldified!

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Tigres: not a huge fan, but he does have the raw talent. If it comes together… look out.

    • Malicious Phenom says:
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      @Tigres: Good Call, I so agree!

  15. Allan says:
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    Hey Jay, between Latos, Hutchison, Paxton, Shoemaker, and Walker in a points league pick 3. My bold or maybe not so bold prediction is that Springer breaks the single season strikeout record.

    • Malicious Phenom says:
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      @Allan: Paxton, Shoemaker, and Walker

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Allan: Hutchinson for sure but what are the points values.

      • Allan says:
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        @J-FOH: K’s 2, W 5, QS 5, BB -.5, L -3, ER -1

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Allan: Not sure if it’s that bold, but it would be something to see, that’s for sure.

      I would leave Paxton out, but it’s close with Latos.

  16. Shawnuel says:
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    Chris McHugh finishes top 5 in NL Cy Young voting.
    Billy Burns leads AL in stolen bases.

    • Chicken Dinner says:
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      @Shawnuel: Astros are AL, so…very bold.

      • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
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        @Chicken Dinner: that’s the 2nd person who doesn’t know that a team changed conferences like 3 years ago in same day around here. don’t people seriously spend like half their life on this shit? seriously guys.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Shawnuel: I love McHugh, and think that’s a great bold prediction.

      • Keith says:
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        who the hell is Chris McHugh?

  17. Malicious Phenom says:
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    T. Walker, A. Bradley and Shelby Miller via for NL Cy Young award!

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Malicious Phenom: I think Shelby Miller is a great buy-low, but you brought the boldness! Wouldn’t that be crazy?

  18. ichirosan says:
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    So, I assume you like Smoak more than, say, Logan Morrison or Ike Davis?

  19. Speedy McGreedy says:
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    I think you made the Red Sox/Dodgers prediction on about drink 8 or 9. Seriously awful rotation.

    My bold prediction for this year is that Jose Abreu pushes .325

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Speedy McGreedy: Probably 10. But I don’t shy away from the crazy ones…

  20. Ufdah! says:
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    Well. Here I thought I’d never have to read Matthew Berry again…

    • Hmm says:
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      @Ufdah!: He recycles enough material to be EPA-certified…so insufferable

    • ashtray says:
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      @Ufdah!: Berry had his “Yeah, you heard me” column but bold predictions are not his idea. Every site has them.

  21. fabiopao says:
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    Michael Pineda is healthy throughout the season, en route to a 18 win, cy young award campaign (note I could stop at the health situation and still it would have been a bold prediction..)

  22. The Great Knoche says:
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    Cole Hamels Ends the Season Playing for……?

    The Cubs

  23. Dave says:
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    Jean Segura will steal more bases than Billy Hamilton

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Dave: Nice one! I really like this one, sounds like something I would call, so of course I like it.

  24. Abe says:
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    Hey Jay, looking for a keeper recommendation in a 10 team league: Carlos Gomez (2nd round pick), Jose Bautista (3rd round), or Michael Brantley (17th). First time using keepers, so I’m still figuring out pick value.

    Thanks!

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Abe: I’d go Brantley there. Young, and that round value…

  25. Banana says:
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    What do you see from Zach McAllister this year? Keeping up the great velocity, maybe the Indians pitching coach working more magic?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Banana: I think he’s going to be special this season. Buy.

  26. slimbo says:
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    Hey

    Would you drop d’arnaud for Martin?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @slimbo: Yeah, I would.

  27. GhostTownSteve says:
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    Five more….

    Brett Gardner will lead the Yankees in HRs. Numbers show that power peaks at 31 (Gardner’s age). He showed growth there last year (though the peripherals suggest it was not growth, just luck) I’m not yet inclined to trust xHR as a metric. This is also a reflection on the state of the Yankees. To make this work Garder needs to out homer Tex, AROD, Ells, Beltran, McCann…

    Justin Masterson will win 17 games for the Red Sox. Masterson’s K spike in 2013 was fueled by a nasty slider that he used to back foot left handers and combat split issues. He went from 26% usage of the slider (which pitch f/x had a 18 runs above replacement in 2013) to 18% in 2014. Health seems like it prevented him from using the slider. Add in a GB heavy approach that should play well in Fenway and line up that should offer plenty of run support and there you have it.

    No Texas Ranger will hit 20 home runs….for the second year in a row. Wait, you didn’t know no Ranger hit 20 last year? It’s Texas, right? Big bats and homer friendly park? Not any more. The park now plays worse than neutral, Beltre will miss just enough games to keep his total on the under and I am not buying Prince Fielder at all.

    Mike Morse and Mark Trumbo will tally more combined RBIs that Giancarlo Stanton and Paul Goldschmidt, though it will be close. I’m banking on both to benefit from their clean up spot behind their celebrated 3rd place hitters. Also like Morse’s mind set going back to his home in Miami.

    Daniel Norris will be back in the minor leagues before June. While I like the kid’s future, the AL East is a grind it out division with long patient ABs. I fear his inability to command the K zone and the lack of upper minor experience to draw upon along with all those tough AL parks are a recipe for disaster.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
      (link)

      @GhostTownSteve: Love the Masterson and Trumbo (with Morse) one. It’s one mix crazy, one mix bold, just how I like it.

  28. Regan says:
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    CJ Cron finishes with 30+ HR and 100RBI. Why not.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Regan: Exactly, why not?

  29. Wake Up says:
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    Yelich over Ellsbury is the best one.

  30. Steve Stevenson says:
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    14 tm 9×9 H2H OPS redraft league, who would you stash in a Minors slot: Olivera (2B eligible, possibly gains 3B if he comes up and plays over Uribe) or Lindor (SS)? My 2B/MI situation’s a little grim, with Gyorko at 2B, Schoop at MI, Mercer on the bench and Valbuena and EverCab the best WW options.

    Also, as a bench OF, do you like Rasmus, Dom Brown or Michael Taylor?

  31. Frank White says:
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    Wutup Jay.. I have too many batters on my bench and need more pitchers in a pitcher friendly league. My hitting is really stacked so can I drop either LaRoche or Matt Carpenter? 10 team H2H points

  32. Bob says:
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    With the First Pick in a 10 Team snake Draft H2H roto Categories

    Do you go Trout-Best Hitter Available-Best Pitcher Available?

    Or do you go Three Hitters in a row?

    • Chicken Dinner says:
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      @Bob: Hitting first six. Seriously.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Bob: I’d go hitters until you feel pressure to take a starter.

  33. Please Hammer says:
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    Arizona’s trying to trade Cahill to make room for Archie Bradley in the rotation.

    Would you drop Jake Peavy to pick up Bradley?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Please Hammer: Eh, I’m okay with it, but my excitement is measured.

  34. Chicken Dinner says:
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    Drew Stubbs has the best stats of the OF in COL.

    Kyle Gibson wins 20 games

    Michael Morse hit 35 HRs

    Trevor Cahill is the waiver wire pick up of the year

    Cardinals beat the ChiSox in 5

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Chicken Dinner: Morse is probably the boldest there. If Cahill goes to the Braves, you might be right.

      • Scott says:
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        @Jay: He did. Picked him up just now!

  35. Big League Choo says:
    (link)

    12 team H2H league no Hrs or Svs sub BB and TBs and Qs and L
    How did i do?
    Arenado went the pick before i grabbed Upton…i was so surprised in the format that we’re in.

    C Zunino
    1B Abreu
    2B Kendrick
    3B C Santana
    SS Jose Ramirez
    MI Micah Johnson
    CI Votto
    OF Harper
    OF J Upton
    OF Soler
    Util Sandoval
    BN Choo(vs R only)
    BN Wil Myers

    P Arrieta
    P Iwakuma
    P Wood
    P Hughes
    P Mchugh
    P Hutchison
    P Bauer
    P Pomeranz
    P D Norris

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Big League Choo: Love the outfield. Pitching is great as well. I think you did great!

  36. Carns says:
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    I like LaRoche as much as the next guy, and had he and Rizzo last year, but do you really think it is fair to use 3-year average as one of two comparisons, considering where Rizzo was on his career arc during that span?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Carns: Well, the 2014 line is there too. And the difference was what? 50 PA’s? I’m not sweating that.

  37. Steve Stevenson says:
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    Weekly H2H categories, W, L and QS count. Shelby or Masterson?

  38. Mike Durkee says:
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    Is Devon Travis even worth a look at in a 10 team league?

  39. Bob says:
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    Draft Finished. 10 Team H2H Roto Categories 6×6. Standard plus K’s for hitters and QS for pitchers. Starting Lineup and Bench Below. Thoughts

    C-Salvador Perez
    1b-Chris Davis(1b/3b)
    2b-Jason Kipinis
    ss-Hanley Ramirez
    3b-Nolan Arenado
    OF-Trout
    OF-Harper
    OF-Danny Santanna (ss/of)
    DH-David Ortiz
    Bench-Jayson Werth
    Bench-David Wright
    Bench-Brandon Belt
    Bench-Brett Lawrie (2b/3b)
    Bench-Joc Pederson
    P-Jeff Samardjia
    P-Jake Arrietta
    P-Hisashi Iwakuma
    P-Colin McHugh
    P-Matt Shoemaker
    RP-Kelly Jansen
    RP-Neftali Perez
    Bench-Brandon McCarthy
    Bench-Mike Fiers
    Bench-Taijuan Walker

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Bob: love the outfield. Big Arrieta fan. An overall strong team.

  40. BALCO Bombers says:
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    final RCL draft. couple fumbles, but ill take it,

    3 Andrew McCutchen, Pit OF
    22 Ian Desmond, Wsh SS
    27 Adrian Beltre, Tex 3B
    46 Albert Pujols, LAA 1B
    51 David Ortiz, Bos DH
    70 Jason Heyward, StL OF
    75 Mookie Betts, Bos OF
    94 James Shields, SD SP
    99 Adam Wainwright, StL SP
    118 Masahiro Tanaka, NYY SP
    123 Glen Perkins, Min RP
    142 Drew Storen, Wsh RP
    147 Brett Gardner, NYY OF
    166 Ian Kennedy, SD SP
    171 Jedd Gyorko, SD 2B
    190 Russell Martin, Tor C
    195 Curtis Granderson, NYM OF
    214 Wade Davis, KC RP
    219 Scooter Gennett, Mil 2B
    238 Tony Watson, Pit RP
    243 Lonnie Chisenhall, Cle 3B
    262 Rick Porcello, Bos SP
    267 Darren O’Day, Bal RP
    286 Joe Smith, LAA RP
    291 Rajai Davis, Det OF

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @BALCO Bombers: yeah, it’s a mix, but I wouldn’t be dissapointed.

  41. yyo says:
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    yo.

    what side of Wil Myers, Matt Harvey, Garret richards FOR justin upton, chris archer, j. quintana you on?

    6×6: R/RBI/HR/SBN/OPS/BA,,,,,,, K/QS/ERA/WHIP/SV/BAA

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @yyo: Upton side.

  42. Buddy Biancalana says:
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    Latos or Cain, if you have to pick one? 5 x 5 roto.

  43. Sideshow27 says:
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    Bold prediction – Eric Hosmer finishes top 3 1Bs

    • apoxonbothyourhouses says:
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      @Sideshow27: LOVE it. Still think Hosmer figures it out soon and becomes a top-5 1B for a few years. Dude’s only 25.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Sideshow27: it could happen! Someone tell him hitting ground balls doesn’t help him.

  44. Eric B says:
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    Whats going on Jay? If you were looking to round out your rotation, which of these arms would you pluck from the wire if you had to pick 2: McCarthy, Greene, Bradley,Pomeranz,Santana, McAllister or C.Rodon?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
      (link)

      @Eric B: what up! Probably McCarthy and Rodon.

      • Eric B says:
        (link)

        @Jay: Thanks man, this is my team as currently constructed, thoughts? Feedback?
        This is my roster: ESPN 12 team HTH mixed 5×5 OBP instead of AVG
        C McCann
        1B Freeman
        2B Kipnis
        3B Santana
        SS A.Ramirez
        OF Stanton
        OF Springer
        OF Soler
        OF Betts
        Util Pollock
        Util Avisail Garcia
        Util Lawrie
        Bench Semien
        Bench Burns
        Bench Jace Peterson

        P Kluber
        P Wainwright
        P Cole
        P Walker
        P Paxton
        SP Ventura
        SP S.Greene
        RP Chapman
        RP Britton
        Bench RP Perkins
        Bench SP/RP D. Norris

        So I was thinking of dropping Greene for McCarthy, based on this roster do you think I should stash Rodon by dropping Burns? Or should I drop Burns(who may still not get much PT even with CoCo on the DL) and add a power bat? Vargas and Cron are on the wire…any feedback is much appreciated.

        • Jay

          Jay says:
          (link)

          @Eric B: yeah, I’d want McCarthy and Cron there. Keeping Burns is fine for now too.

          • Eric B says:
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            @Jay: Thanks bro, thing is to add Cron I’d have to drop Burns. Already dropped Greene for McCarthy. You think my roster could use Crons bat, Burn’s potential or a stash of Rodon the most?

            • Jay

              Jay says:
              (link)

              @Eric B: I’d do Cron there then. I like Rodon, but there’s going to be some wait time and probably an adjustment period.

              • Eric B says:
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                @Jay: Appreciate the help man!

                • Eric B says:
                  (link)

                  @Eric B: Just curious what makes Cron the play over Vargas for you?

                  • Eric B says:
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                    @Eric B: Forgot to mention Smoak is out there too lol, you still taking Cron?

                  • Jay

                    Jay says:
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                    @Eric B: I like the upside there.

  45. kenly0 says:
    (link)

    Marte wins the NL MVP

    Samardjiza is a bust

    Marisnick goes 20/20

    Headley is a top 25 player

    A. Simmons is a top 3 ss

    Kyle Hendricks leads the Cubs in wins

    Leake outperforms Cueto this season

    Ryan Zimmerman stays healthy and finishes top 5 NL MVP voting

    Pineda stays healthy and finishes top 3 AL Cy Young

    All LA World Series Angels win in 6. David Freese wins World Series MVP

    • Jay

      Jay says:
      (link)

      @kenly0: that Zimmerman… bold man. Then again, Sky picked him the NL MVP.

  46. Ra'zbahl Al Ghul says:
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    1) Plouffe finishes as top 5 3Bman, 25 bombs/90RBI/.260
    2) Bryant is exposed by June as a bad-contact mess
    3) Ender Inciarte is a top 20 OF’r

      • Scott says:
        (link)

        @Jay: Plouffe! Plouffe! Plouffe!

  47. ashtray says:
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    Mookie Betts finishes with a line of 150/25/90/30/.320 and also cures every known STD.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
      (link)

      @ashtray: Tehol would jump for joy at this one.

      • Ra'zbahl Al Ghul says:
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        @Jay: because he loves the mookman? Or because…

    • Ra'zbahl Al Ghul says:
      (link)

      @ashtray: dood that is preposterous, pollyannish… There is no way he figures out herpes this year

  48. b-rock says:
    (link)

    Hey Jay – I see a league of yours as open in the RCL list but the link doesn’t work.

    Is that an actual league? Or just an error?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
      (link)

      @b-rock: it’ll be up soon. Waiting on a few specific invites before I open it up.

  49. Scott says:
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    I’ll be jumping on that Smoak bandwagon, because, you know, Billy Butler.

    • Scott says:
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      @Scott: is the biggest bust, that is.

      • Jay

        Jay says:
        (link)

        @Scott: ooo, that makes sense now!

  50. ryan says:
    (link)

    This is my 10 team keeper league team.
    C homes
    1b abreu
    2b pedroia
    3b seager
    Ss bogaerts
    Of Stanton
    Of harper
    Of ozuna
    Util Bette
    Bch Pompey
    Bch Bryant
    Bch odor

    So
    Kershaw
    Cole
    Wacha
    Harvey
    Hamel’s
    Bauer
    Ross
    Garza
    Tiers
    Matt Moore
    Dylan Bundy
    Henry Owens
    Carlos rodon
    Noah syndergaard

    DL Martin Perez
    DL wheeler

    Its a points league thats been going on for 3 years now. What do you think? If you had to drop a couple guys who would you get rid of? Remember its a keeper so who I end the year with I keep next year.

    • ryan says:
      (link)

      @ryan:
      Gomes*** damn auto correct

      • ryan says:
        (link)

        @ryan:
        Betts**
        Fiers**

    • Jay

      Jay says:
      (link)

      @ryan: probably Fiers and Pedroia… but if you don’t have to, I like this team. I would hold.

  51. AMolnar says:
    (link)

    Masterson, Pomeranz, House, Niese, Brett Anderson (LAD), JA Happ

    Rank those please. Most upside. I need to drop Salazar for one of them.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
      (link)

      @AMolnar: I’d go Masterson there.

  52. Tehol Beddict says:
    (link)

    HARPER!!!! YAAAAAAASSSSSS, JAY, YAAAAAAAASSSSS

  53. ChefBoyRG54 says:
    (link)

    Brett Lawrie gets over 550 ABs and outperforms….Josh Donaldson on the player rater

    If this happens I might be screwed but it’s fun

    • Jay

      Jay says:
      (link)

      @ChefBoyRG54: i love this one because of the narrative.

  54. M says:
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    Trading Luis Valbuena for Mike Napoli, who wins and how close is it?

    Speaking of Napoli and bold predictions, I say he goes back to catching full-time due to the Vasquez injury and Napoli replicates his 2011 season.

    Just kidding.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
      (link)

      @M: Napoli, by a good margin. I like him this season.

  55. A Wesley Snipes Life says:
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    one thing about counting up bold predictions and saying “i won” or “he won” is that some of these are more BOLD than others, and by definition your three could be worth more than his five, or even the opposite.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
      (link)

      @A Wesley Snipes Life: awe, thanks! To be fair, I did have veto power over his (and his mine) and Eno said as much when we talked in Arizona. It was just fun putting them on the line. I think we’ll have a re-match next season, for sure.

      • A Wesley Snipes Life says:
        (link)

        @Jay: oh, yeah, i knew nothing of the veto powers. that’s certainly big in this. i hope you are right about the smoak one, but where are his at bats coming from? i bought him for 2 years on the cheap (about three times a min contract) in 30 man dynasty back in january. also bought mini donkey even cheaper. this team had power problems, even before werth’s shoulder thing.

        • Jay

          Jay says:
          (link)

          @A Wesley Snipes Life: I think there will be enough at-bats with Martin’s age and Navarro switching back and forth with the DH. It’s crazy, yes, but there might be something there.

  56. A Wesley Snipes Life says:
    (link)

    the kemp plays more games than trout is crazy as shit, but not as much as the BOS SP over LAD ones. Greinke/Kershaw alone, if healthy (and i’ll give free health to those BOS ones to make this one count) probably worth more than top BOS 4, and that’s even with Miley improving somewhat. Giving LAD two more SP makes that one not even fair.

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