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Top 20 catchers1st basemen and 2nd basemen are in the books.  What a strange, glorious trip it’s been!  Though not really.  Today, the top 20 shortstops for 2012 fantasy baseball get to shine.  Hmm… Actually, most of these won’t shine.  They’re cloudy with a chance of crapballs.  To be a bit more specific, the top ten shortstops were about equal with the 2nd basemen through the top 10, then they fall off the map like a 12th century explorer.  For instance, Scutaro is 8th on the 2nd basemen list and 7th here, but Mike Aviles is 18th on the 2nd basemen list and 14th here.  That’s ugly, y’all!  Okay, enough of the hubbub on the tomfoolery.  To recap, this final ranking is from our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater with my comments.  The Player Rater allows me to be impartial while looking at how I ranked them in the preseason.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 shortstops for 2012 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Jimmy Rollins – I probably should’ve went over this in the intro paragraph.  Intro Paragraph, “Take care of your own shizz.”  But I’ll talk about it here since there’s not much to say on Rollins.  There weren’t a whole lot of surprises with the shortstops.  Scutaro and Plouffe were about it, and they were both on waivers in just about all mixed leagues a month into the season.  As this list will show, the shortstops could’ve used some surprises.  Preseason Rank #6, 2012 Projections:  80/14/55/.270/24, Final Numbers: 102/23/68/.250/30

2. Ian Desmond – Due to poor counting stats, Desmond is below Rollins, but he was really more valuable if you subbed in players when Desmond was injured since he only played in 130 games.  The scary thing, though this is more for next year, Desmond had almost exactly the same season as he had in 201o when he hit 10 homers and .269.  His HR/FB% and BABIP made up for the differences.  And that’s me shining on this crazy Desmond.  Preseason Rank #14, 2012 Projections:  70/10/65/.250/22, Final Numbers: 72/25/73/.291/21

3. Hanley Ramirez – He’s lost a bunch of infield hits from his .300+ days.  I don’t know this for a fact, because I didn’t feel like Googling it, but my guess is he’s lost a step down the first base line.  Whether that’s from not hustling down the line or just age, I’m not sure.  Shoot, I wasn’t sure if what I initially guessed at was true, so how would I know if the assumption on the assumption was true?  Preseason Rank #3, 2012 Projections:  90/20/105/.305/25, Final Numbers: 79/24/92/.257/21

4. Jose Reyes – You know what’s really hurting these guys from my preseason projections to the postseason?  Runs are down.  The season Desmond had should’ve gave him 90 runs; Rollins used to get 120 runs with those numbers; Hanley should’ve had 90 runs; Jeter didn’t break 100 runs — huh!?; Castro played in 162 games and only had 78 runs; Reyes didn’t have a 86-run season, he had more like a 105-run season.  Maybe baseball will start the 2013 season in Mexico City and get the runs back.  Preseason Rank #2, 2012 Projections:  110/12/50/.295/45, Final Numbers:  86/11/57/.287/40

5. Derek Jeter – Besides Desmond, Jeter had the most valuable season for where he was drafted compared to where he ended up.  He was drafted at a $3.7 price tag and gave you a eighteen dollar return.  Pretty terrible how far his speed has fallen.  I mean, not considering he’s 38 years old… Holy crap, Jeter’s 38 years old?!  That means I’m old.  When the hell did that fresh-faced with pop-star-good-looks, Pasta Diving stallion get so old?  Ugh, I just got arthritis thinking about it.  Preseason Rank #8, 2012 Projections:  90/10/60/.275/15, Final Numbers:  99/15/58/.316/9

6. Starlin Castro – For value, this is where the first tier ends.  If you had one of the first six guys, you were okay.  Maybe not great from day to day, but in the grand scale of this whole mishegoss, you did okay.  Specifically, Castro was more the victim of a terrible offense than a terrible season.  He doesn’t have lights-out power or lightning-fast speed, but he doesn’t kill you in any category, either.  If things broke right for his runs and RBIs, he’d be more like a top 3 shortstop.  Preseason Rank #5, 2012 Projections:  100/12/70/.310/20, Final Numbers: 78/14/78/25/.283

7. Marco Scutaro - Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

8. Alcides Escobar – According to our Expected Average charts, Alcides should’ve hit .245.  So if his average was that low, my projections were pretty money.  If I may toot my own horn — though if I could actually toot my own horn, I’d never leave the house — I did really well with projections this year, in general.  January Grey was locked in.  January Grey, “Funny you use that turn of a phrase cause I’m actually locked up in Guatemala.  Look for me on Locked Up Abroad!”  Preseason Rank #16, 2012 Projections:  75/5/50/.250/30, Final Numbers: 68/5/52/.293/35

9. Elvis Andrus – I’m starting to grow accustomed to this guy not meeting my power expectations, but now his speed is in the toilet too and no one’s flushing.  On a positive note, if you don’t own Hamilton in a keeper league, if Josh has a bad season that usually means Andrus has a good speed season.  Though, that will probably end up irrelevant as I’m pretty sure Andrus is going to be playing shortstop for someone else come 2013.  Just think, if he goes to the Astros, he could steal 60 bases.  And score 50 runs.  Preseason Rank #4, 2012 Projections:  105/7/60/.285/40, Final Numbers: 85/3/62/.286/21

10. Asdrubal Cabrera – I figured Asdrubal would come back to earth after his 2011 season, but I hope he put down his landing gear because ouch-choo.  (Ouch-choo is my manly way of saying “ouch.”  See, when I bump into something, my governed-by-masculinity self can’t act like I hurt myself, so I pretend I just sneezed.  “Ouch-choo!”  Feel free to use it too.)  Preseason Rank #7, 2012 Projections:  80/14/70/.270/15, Final Numbers: 70/16/68/.270/9

11. Alexei Ramirez – Anecdotally, his power decline could be due to the fact that he’s a Latin 31.  Less anecdotally, his fly balls were down a tad, but his HR/FB% was garbage and his speed actually was better, according to his Bill James Speed Score.  He’s at a career crossroads where he’ll either bounce back or fall into oblivion next year.  Totally guessing here, but he could have a Great Zombino season in him, though that will take him having a huge April.  Something he’s not exactly famous for.  Preseason Rank #9, 2012 Projections:  75/17/80/.270/10, Final Numbers:  59/9/73/.265/20

12. J.J. Hardy – The most surprising thing about his season is the runs, especially considering the dearth of them elsewhere and assuming I’m using that “dearth” word correctly.  But since he hit 2nd for 631 ABs, it’s not that surprising.  The really surprising thing is he hit 2nd for that many ABs and the Orioles excelled.  The third surprising thing in a series of three, the Orioles excelled and Hardy’s .238 average wasn’t that bad relative to the rest of his team.  Preseason Rank #11, 2012 Projections:  60/19/75/.255, Final Numbers: 85/22/68/.238

13. Erick Aybar – I doubt anyone was happy with some of the guys above, but Aybar had a two-homer, five-steal 1st half.  If you owned that, you lost your league, but in a last desperation move you probably dropped him before his solid 2nd half, so not only did he hurt you but he helped your competition beat you doubly.  Why is it whenever I say “doubly” I sound drunk?  Hmm, deep thoughts with Grey Albright.  Preseason Rank #10, 2012 Projections:  80/6/50/.280/24, Final Numbers: 67/8/45/.290/20

14. Mike Aviles - Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

15. Trevor Plouffe – Plouffe goes the dynamite!  If you did like many people, when Emily Goodface was injured, you went over to Plouffe and Frankenstein’d together a 20/20 shortstop.  Then when Plouffe got hurt you went off to another shortstop.  So, if you do like me and punt middle infield, there’s a good chance if you owned Plouffe, you got a lot more than the 15th best shortstop.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 56/24/55/.235/1

16. Rafael Furcal – In the early months, everyone was talking about how Furcal found the fountain of youth.  In reality, he found the fountain of a good couple of months, which Ponce de Leon Durham went looking for in his early thirties, but never found.  Just like he never found that ground ball in 1984.  Preseason Rank #20, 2012 Projections:  60/7/35/.245/12, Final Numbers: 69/5/49/.264/12

17. Everth Cabrera – He went unranked, because he wasn’t even on the major league roster in April.  If you paired him with, say, Bonifacio, you SAGNOF’d your way to a 55+ steals.  If you paired EverCab with Plouffe, you had a 15 homer, 30+ steal MI.  If you paired him with Asdrubal Cabrera, you had a fine Caberyay.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 49/2/24/.246/44

18. Zack Cozart – Wasn’t terribly off the value I had for him in the preseason when I liked him as a sleeper, except for the steals.  Instead of RBIs, he got runs due to lineup placement.  He had 30 steals in his last minor league season, so the lack of steals is baffling.  As a team, the Reds just didn’t run, accumulating 87 steals as a team and ranking 26th in the majors.  Maybe we could hire some of Aroldis sketchier associates to scare the crap out of the Reds baserunners.  Preseason Rank #15, 2012 Projections:  55/14/70/.245/20, Final Numbers: 72/15/35/.246/4

19. Jhonny Peralta – Pretty terrible that this list includes someone like Jhonny.  Not simply because his superfluous H freaks me out, but because he wasn’t ownable in most mixed leagues and was death in AL-Only leagues yet he’s in the top 20.  Yikes, who’s next?  Yunel?  Preseason Rank #17, 2012 Projections:  60/17/75/.250, Final Numbers:  58/13/63/.239/1

20. Yunel Escobar – This list makes me long for the days we were recapping catchers.  Yunel that?  That’s the shortstops.  Preseason Rank #18, 2012 Projections:  70/12/45/.280/3, Final Numbers: 58/9/51/.253/5

  1. Jake says:
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    Where do you think Andrelton Simmons will be on this list next year? Certainly projects fairly well if you take his rates for this season and project normal starters’ ABs.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jake, Will be around 20th for next year… He has upside for a top ten SS but there will be a lot of risk involved with him…

  2. Molly Lee says:
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    Not on-topic, but your biggest female fan needs your advice pullleeeeez. I’m about to make a draft pick in a “dispersal” draft in a Keeper league (Strat-o-Matic). Given my needs, my best choices seem to be: Roy Halladay, Lance Lynn, and Dexter Fowler. Any thoughts? Thank you!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Molly Lee, Heeeeeeey, sexy lady! Those choices aren’t so good… Lance Lynn…

      • TheNewGuy says:
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        @Grey, Really, over Doc?? I know he’s had a rough year but man…

        I’d back him to bounceback next year and have a solid year, certainly better than those other Schmos fwiw.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Lynn’s peripherals were better than Halladay…He’s gonna be 36 years old next year and it’s a keeper… I’d go for the upside…

      • Molly Lee says:
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        @Grey, I was leaning toward Lance Lynn, largely due to his longish hair and facial hair. I sense my boyfriend is leaning toward old Doc, for the reasons TheNewGuy suggested, but he won’t make any draft pick for me. Now I’m REALLY torn. lol.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          When you say “boyfriend,” you mean “not me?” Yeah, Halladay is safer, but this season makes him seem like his best seasons might be behind him…

          • TheNewGuy says:
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            @Grey, Ha…dumped you already has she Grey ;) . Still 4 lady readers or does this make it 5 now?

            Yeah for sure hear ya on Doc, but I kinda get the feeling he could either rebound in a big way or just totally collapse next year. Knowing his work-ethic I’d be he’s determined to prove he’s not done, so could see one more good year outta him. Of course though, Lynn could prove to be a good pitcher in the future (not totally sold yet), so it’s a tricky call.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Ha… Yeah, dang nabbit! Halladay’s number don’t say he should rebound is a big way… Work ethic only gets you so far if you’ve lost miles off your fastball and you start to get older… If anything, he’ll give a low 3 ERA but not have the Ks as he’s had in the past… The excellent Ks seem gone forever…

          • Molly Lee says:
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            @Grey, Just because I have a boyfriend, doesn’t mean I can’t have a long-distance crush. lol. Besides, you aren’t “available”. But judging from your photo, I could find a place in the Collegetown Cougars “front-office” for you. I am always on the look-out for players with long hair and/or good facial hair (Reddick, Weeks, Samardzija, Motte, Lincecum, Leake, etc.). I’ve been trying for months to trade CarGo, Motte, and a bonus player for Andrew & Hanrahan (I’m a Pirates fan), but he won’t bite. So Lance Lynn, it is!!!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              If you’re on the Collegetown Cougar admissions board, I’ll apply… That CarGo trade would be solid for you, but could see why the other person might not go for it…

              • Molly Lee says:
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                @Grey, Yeah, my boyfriend is suggesting I might have to just “overpay” and go for it, since Andrew & Hanrahan are among my favorites. And it’s all about having fun, right? (But I cannot trade my Ryan Braun.) The other manager already turned down Reddick, Nelson Cruz & others as the third “bonus player”, but I’ve since decided to keep Josh. Maybe CarGo & Aroldis? Or is that too much?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  I’ve heard of fun, I faintly remember it from my youth… Yeah, I’d overpay for The Dread Pirate in a keeper. CarGo’s no slouch, but he gets injured plenty… CarGo and Aroldis is a bit much though still… Cruz, CarGo and Motte is plenty, you might not be dealing with a rational person… Or Reddick instead of Cruz is also fair…

                  • Molly Lee says:
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                    @Grey, Braun, Andrew, and Reddick … would that be a hott outfield, or what??

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, Brauny Andy (red)Dick is hawt…

  3. Vacation says:
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    Grey, what % odds do you give for Rollins going 20/20 again in 2013.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Vacation, 25%

  4. Chris M. says:
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    Do you have a rough idea what your project for Jean Segura will be for 2013?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Chris M., 3 homers, 25 steals, .280…

  5. Carnac says:
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    Shame that Isringhausen is retiring one-short of 301 career saves.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Carnac, Surprised he didn’t go for the illustrious 302nd save.

  6. Jon says:
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    Do you think Rollins or Desmond falls farther down your SS rankings 13? Do you think Tulo’s the top guy still?

    Also, choose any 4 as keepers:

    AGon, Hosmer, Zimmerman, Lawrie, Jennings, Lester, Zimmermann, Minor

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jon, Nope, not further than 13th… Tulo’s probably not the top, but maybe…. A-Gon, Zimmerman, Lawrie, Zimmermann

  7. Jay says:
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    Got offered this deal in a 5 keeper, no salary, 12 team roto league

    I give up Trout and Bundy
    Receive McCutch and Verlander

    No restriction on how long to keep. Would you do it?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jay, I’d hold…

  8. TheNewGuy says:
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    Man, Mad-Bum has been belted this postseason, though the Cards are belting everybody right now.

    Reckon this affects his stock for next year? Had him for his final year in my keeper, so think he might be a bit pricey next year. Though maybe this makes him cheaper. Tiredless is probably the cause, can’t see much more concern than that.

    It’s cool that we don’t care when our pitcher gets shelled now isn’t it!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @TheNewGuy, Ha, yeah, it is nice to not care about your pitchers anymore… Load off my mind! Bum’s stock won’t be affected by the postseason unless he gets hurt…

  9. Sky

    Sky says:
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    I fell asleep by Derek Jeter.

  10. TheNewGuy says:
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    You’re right runs at SS were crazy low this year. Elvis with 85 runs?? You’d figure he could get that in his sleep, hitting in that lineup.

    Whether it was because teams didn’t get the leadoff hitter in enough for whatever reason, I can’t see only 1 100+run SS happening again next year. Shortstop was pretty shitty all round this year, but who had J-Roll and Hanley on his teams (and won)? >>This guy!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha… Nice… Yeah, I didn’t even mention the all-time worst shortstop leadoff hitter runs guy, Ruben Tejada!

  11. Jack Full of Hate says:
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    Senor Gris, happy Monday. This was the article I didn’t want to see this year because I knew that Elvis and Castro were going to be part of the all WTF team. I drafted Castro and Bone Face with the security that I couldn’t have screwed that up, and after April, I thought I had nailed it, SS was a done deal, I had dropped Desmond twice because there was no way he could be that much better than these two, well the September hangover is on and going into October. Then to deal with the loss of Bone Face I bought low on Elvis and that was just a hunka hunka burning feeling in ass, kinda like after Indian food, that well, I’m still drinking the milk hoping it will go away. I’m sweating like a Nam flashback right now just replaying the torture rack these guys threw me on. Maybe next year I will save my SS pick till the 25th round cause it doesnt really matter.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Happy Monday, JFoH. It’s the nature of shortstops that it doesn’t feel that weird dropping a top ranked one a month or two into the season… If you had around 10th in this list it was pretty much like having no one and you could’ve just shuffled them in and out of your lineup with the latest hot schmotato…

      • Jack Full of Hate says:
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        @Grey, I usually play the schmotato card but where I was able to get the guys I got, I figured this is too easy. well it was, it was too easy to lose thinking I knew better.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, hard to fault someone who drafts Andrus expecting steals and runs… It’s one of those things, you draft and hope the guys do what they’re supposed to do…

          • Jack Full of Hate says:
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            @Grey, Andrus gets my vote for most Yawnstippating MI of the year.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I think he’s running unopposed…

              • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                @Grey, odd, doesn’t look like he knew how to run all year

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Nope, it doesn’t…

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                    @Grey, any word back from the T-shirt guy for my XXL?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, sorry, thought I relayed the info… He said he could do XXL… Just note it in the order…

                    • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                      @Grey, thanks

  12. royce! says:
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    Man, I somehow thought Rollins was having a bad year, but that might have just been based on how frequently Steve was posting about him…

    Pretty crazy that having the top SS seems to have negatively affected the teams that drafted Rollins (avg 7.1). Also crazy that drafting Yunel seems to have been a net positive, but I think that has more to do with people having drafted and dropped him, and picked up Scutaro or Alcides or something. Which makes me think that my idea that determining the average finish for teams based on who they drafted might actually not yield very interesting results, because if you drafted someone late and they sucked, you could just drop em. (On the other hand, if you drafted someone early and they sucked, like Tulo, you were screwed).

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, basically we’re finding that you should punt every position… I’m only half-joking… Maybe a quarter…

      • royce! says:
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        @Grey, Yeah, that seems to be the case…I’m afraid that looking at the player rater, it might show that drafting a top SP (except Lincecum) was a good idea… should definitely do so for OF (Braun and Dread Pirate carried one of my teams).

        Perhaps another way of looking at it is that one should prioritize positions where the deviation in value between the top tier and lower tiers is greater. For example, the drop off from Braun to someone you could draft at over 200 is like 25 HR, but the difference between Cano and someone you could draft over 200 is probably more like 10-15 HR. Eh, I don’t know, I just want to think about baseball, but I’m distracted and can’t get my mind around this problem.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, that’s definitely the case… It’s the same reason we punt catcher… The top ones and the bottom ones are close enough that it doesn’t warrant a top draft pick… Might just stack a team with OFs and corner men and see where the cards fall on everything else…

        • Steve says:
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          @royce!, I’m targeting guys that have a good baseball body and a hot girlfriend.

          • royce! says:
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            @Steve, Do it! You should draft that team, then play it like any normal team and see where you are at the end of the season. Too bad David Wells retired, cuz dude had the classic baseball body (not willing to look up his gf).

            • Steve says:
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              @royce!, Yeah. You guys who think you’re all fat Jonah Hill, don’t know nothing.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Pence just had a five pitch at-bat and didn’t blink once.

  13. Eng says:
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    Ya know I love you Grau, but I have to mention it again so fellow readers don’t think I make a habit of dissing your lyrics. This said, I don’t buy into the FB% and babip crizzap for Desmond. Reminds me of how Matt Cain’s underlying numbers were supposed to mean he was Chad Billingsley. Desmond carried on his hot hitting pre/post all star, pre/post injury and into the post-season. I’m buying, certainly far prefer him to Andrus across the board.

    • royce! says:
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      @Eng, I don’t think Grey said that Desmond was just lucky. The point was that his underlying stats, such as LD%, were the same in 2011 as 2012, but an increase in BABIP and HR/FB% resulted in more hits and more HR. While I think that Desmond is unlikely to sustain the HR/FB% next year (it was around Prince Fielder and Jay Bruce’s), a BABIP of around .330 is not unheard of, and could be easily repeated.

      Matt Cain has significantly outperformed his xFIP for years, showing that he is a true outlier that underlying peripherals cannot account for. Desmond had a slightly higher than average BABIP and a high HR/FB rate. Pointing out the rare outlier (Cain) does not disprove this.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Desmond’s Hr/FB was up there with some of the top sluggers in the game and miles above his previous years… He looks a lot like Asdrubal coming off his 2011… Desmond could hit around .280 again, he’s not going to hit 25 homers…

      • Eng says:
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        @Grey, I hear your point and you may be right. But bare in ind Asdrubel’s 5’11, 175. Desmond has 30+ lbs and 3 inches on him. I guess we’ll have to see come 2013, if Desmond plays 140+ and doesn’t hit 25 homers then a Daiquiri is coming your way (though it won’t be at Marmont prices, think more Miyagi’s c.2004).

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          As long as it’s not Dublin’s circa 2002…

  14. Prezii says:
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    Ahh grey… Thanks to you i considered droppin j roll bout 2 weeks before playoffs.. then he single handedly won me the first round and was big in the finals.. sometimes that stache works in some crazy ways. I still luv you tho man and i won my only league so we have no beef! Woulda sucked somethin terrible to see him #1 here with only a 3rd place trophy… Haha

    P.s. congrats on ur 5th female reader! ;)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, he was a bit down I think there for a few in September, but then came on strong, so it’s all good… Whew! Thanks…but I think she’s only interested in my fantasy knowledge and facial hair…Wait, that’s all any of you want!

      • Prezii says:
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        @Grey, im probably not drafting him ever again though.. literally, cuz he’ll be retired by ’14.. rollins and i have had our times and they are nearing the end for us both.. its castro for me next year as he’ll be leading the cubs to a playoff berth! “Say whatttt!?”… Yeah i said that! But no, no grey… We like the way you ride imaginary horses. The facial hair and fantasy advice are just bonuses!

          • Prezii says:
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            @Grey, i try man, i try.. that bus is awfully full in philly come to think of it!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, but it’s a short hike over to AC…

              • Prezii says:
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                @Grey, im sure rollins could make the trip as he showed he still has legs… Howard and utley, ehhh not so much! I wouldnt want to see utleys luck in AC tho.. we all know he sees black cats walk by daily!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  He’d hurt his knee on the slots…

                  • Prezii says:
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                    @Grey, ryan howard rolls dice… Oh, one hits utley! Torn acl and a missing eyeball.. out indefinitely…

                    On the way to rescure utley, howard also suffers a torn acl.. all this on the last roll of the night..

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Utley pulls out his player’s card for a comped room and dislocates his shoulder…

                    • Prezii says:
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                      @Grey, clutch… Least he can rehab gangnam style..

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