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I’ve mentioned a few times in the course of the rankings about guys I’d actually own.  In the 2010 fantasy baseball top 100, I say there’s 20 guys I’d actually own.  I’ll even pull the quote for you.  In the F-Her blurb, I said, “If I were to only talk about the guys I would actually own, this top 100 may only be 20 guys long.”  See, I did say it!  So, I lied.  I’d own everyone in the top 100.  I’d own Lincecum, but he’d have to fall to me in the 3rd round; I’d own Mark Reynolds, but he’d have to be around in the 4th round; I’d own Mauer, but he’d have to be around pick 28.  And so on and so forth.  What I mean by there’s only 20 players I’d own is those are the only guys I could actually see myself getting in a draft considering where they’re being drafted and how I assemble a team.  I’d draft Nathan in the 90s, but his ADP is 75, so it doesn’t seem like it’s happening.  This also does not include the top 22 guys overall.  I’d own them all, except Lincecum.  Anyway, here’s the players from ranking 22 to 100 in the top 100 for 2010 fantasy baseball that I’d own:

24. Justin Upton

29. Ryan Zimmerman

30. Kevin Youkilis

33. Joey Votto

34. Curtis Granderson

35. Jayson Werth

36. B.J. Upton

37. Brandon Phillips

40. Robinson Cano

47. Josh Hamilton

54. Carlos Quentin

55. Nelson Cruz

56. Adam Jones

71. Cole Hamels

72. Josh Johnson

73. Cliff Lee

74. Ubaldo Jimenez

76. Ricky Nolasco

77. Josh Beckett

78. Clayton Kershaw

85. Gordon Beckham

86. Raul Ibanez

96. Wandy Rodriguez

97. Chad Billingsley

100. Ian Stewart

And it came out to 24 guys.  Well, I did say, “…this top 100 may only be 20 guys long.”  Turns out I underestimated.  This becomes interesting if you look at how the names break down.  (And by “interesting,” I mean rather pedantic.) In the beginning, I shoot for the cornerstones with Zimmerman, Youk and Votto.  Then I briefly look at 2nd basemen before stocking my outfield with Grandy, Werth, Upton, etc.  Once I have my corners and outfield in good shape, I look at pitchers.  After pitchers, I round out the top 100 with upside and personal favorites.  Now I say I’d own these guys.  Obviously, I wouldn’t own all of them on one team.  Also, who you have in the top 22 dictates who you take later.  Hehe, I said dictates.

136 Responses

  1. Mic says:
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    Every yahoo style mock draft i’ve done so far i always end up with nelson cruz in the 6th round… and after every draft i always ask myself is he worth that risk or am I reaching… should i just be content with that pick or should i think about other players or positions around the sixth round… (i usually pick all hitters for the first 7 rounds)…

  2. jsp2014 says:
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    Really wouldn’t own Jonny Lestah? I feel like you’ve written some positive things about him and the price isn’t too steep. I get him in at least half of my mocks.

  3. The Hebrew Hammer says:
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    What are the odds we get Razzball auction values for the top 100? (or even 300 if you are feeling generous).
    Or does anyone know a place with average auction price for players as opposed to ADP which is nice to know, but not helpful for auction based leagues.
    Also, we’re discussing changing our keeper settings. Grey, what do you like to use for an increase in price for an auction keeper league (5×5, 12 team keep 5)?

  4. The Cino says:
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    I’m in an 11 team mixed roto 10×10 auction league. Last year I won easily and competed in every category. I earned 5 pts for Saves and 7 pts for Blown Saves. Seems to me I can punt Saves and win Blown Saves and be in almost the same place, 10 pts instead of 12 pts, without having to roster any closers. Am I thinking straight?

  5. Pins on Shins says:
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    What are the odds that Razzball posts are conceived as search engine bait?

  6. Tony says:
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    Grandy or Werth? Since they’re right there back to back….?

    Both had great line ups, both are NOT great average hitters but can hit for power&speed…. do you like Grandy’s chances of batting .270-.300 over Werth?

    If they both come to me in the 3/4th round i know who i take EVERY TIME….

  7. Thanks, I feel like this post just answered every question I usually ask. I’m always trying to figure out what a handful of your teams look like, so this helps.

  8. Pancakes says:
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    I pick 3rd in a12man h2h league5x5. We just made it a keeper league this year, keeping 4 starting next. Who do you think is realistic after taking Utley. THinking maybe some combo of Reyes,Zimmerman, GOnzalez or Votto in the 2nd and 3rd. WHo would you try to pair up?

  9. donniebball says:
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    grey,
    in a keeper league would you deal arod for justin upton?

    if you think i should get more, what do you think i should get?
    is zimmerman and upton too much?

  10. Tony says:
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    @donniebball: i’d say zimm/upton is more than i’d give, but you do need to get MORE for arod than JUST upton…. he’s a stud of the future, but arods not done yet…

  11. AJ says:
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    I’m curious how “But I’m looking to own Lester on at least one team in 2010.” turned into not being on this list. Something up? Cause he looks very tasty this year…

  12. Obmij76 says:
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    Not that you have the time it would take to do this but I’d love to see you do a mock draft all by yourself

  13. Great list Grey!

    I would really like to see you put up a post on what players you would reach for above their ADP. I know that this is probably dependent more on each draft, but there has to be some players that you would grab earlier than most. No?

  14. grandysdandy says:
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    grey..long time reader!!!!!!!
    first post.

    grey/all
    which side in a keeper (12 teams)

    vmart/arod vs holliday/wright

  15. Frank Rizzo says:
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    This is so good Grey. Much appreciated. It seems like you’ve broken it down even more than in the past. I don’t remember this post last year. I’ve done a lot of mocks and I’d say about 80% of these guys end up on my team in each mock so I’d expect about 80% of these guys on my team come draft time. I’ve been a devout Razzball follower hanging on your rankings. It hasn’t let me down. I play in only 10 team leagues so it’s a little easier to stock up on guys on this list.

    Question…..You place Justin Upton right below Holliday and Sizemore but is there ever a time when you would take Upside over these 2? I play in ESPN leagues and their projections for Upton are above Holliday/Sizemore. In other words, I won’t own him in my leagues because according to your rankings, I shouldn’t take Upton before them. We call Upton Upside for a reason. Would it be a horrible move to select Upton over those others?

    Thanks again for this website. Still the best secret on the interwebs.

  16. sean says:
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    “Lois, if you must know, I find [the meatloaf] shallow and pedantic.”

    @AJ: Lester is going 48th according to CBS ADP. I’d rather take pitchers with similar peripherals, who don’t pitch in the AL East, 4-5 rounds later. Not to mention, the guys going within 10 spots of Lester in either direction include Morneau, Youk, Zimmerman, Panda, Johan, Haren, Grandy, Votto, Bay, Phillips, Lind, and BJ Upton. I wouldn’t pass up one of those guys for a guy who might make 5-7 starts against the Yankees and Rays.

  17. Frank Rizzo says:
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    One other thing, you don’t have Morneau in your top 24 but I’ve been warming up to him because ESPN has him ranked below Votto. In 10 team mocks I’ve been able to get Morneau in the 5th round pretty consistently. If you were in the 5th round of a 10 team draft, and Votto/Morneau were sitting there, who would you pick?

  18. sean says:
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    @Grey: Two questions: (1) Can a guy like Werth really be relied upon to be your first OF? If so, would he need to be handcuffed to guy like El Caballo? (2) Is the only thing separating Cruz from other 30/15 types like Granderson and Werth the chance that ’09 was a flash in the pan?

  19. David says:
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    @Grey
    You need to be cautious about Ian Stewart. The guy still strikes out a ton and doesn’t make enough contact. Melvin Mora was brought in for a reason so any slump for Stewart and you’ll see him splitting ab’s with Mora.
    So basically he has to show skills growth this season.

    I’ve seen enough of BJ Upton to know that his power output in 07 was a fluke. The guy doesn’t have enough plate discipline to hit for avg. He’s basically the out field version of Rickie Weeks.

    Justin Upton is another guy that I would be cautious about if I’m thinking about taking him in the 2nd round. He’s another that strikes out way too much. His .300 avg looks a bit flukey to me. If he doesn’t improve his plate discipline I wouldn’t be surprised if his BA doesn’t go over .265

  20. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @Tony: But Morneau is ahead of Votto in Grey’s 1b rankings for a reason. He’ll have more RBI for sure, probably runs as well. His BA may not be quite as high but if his back’s in good shape, he could hit over .300. He’ll most likely hit over 30 HR’s. What’s not to like?

  21. Tony says:
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    @David: stewart is a career .293 minor leaguer…. he’s still young. 25/7 last year in a part time roll…

    Like you said with stewart and justin upton, alot depends on progression, i think people taking J-up where they have been are BANKING on him taking the next step…. the talent is there for both.

    I agree on BJ, i wont own him.

  22. majortommy says:
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    Surprised Sandoval is not on the list. I know you have covered him, and I could go look up what you said, but indulge me on why he is not mentioned? His numbers as a 3rd baseman can’t be that far off from what Yuke and Zimmerman will do.

  23. Vinnie says:
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    Nice post David. I agree that you need to take some chances to win fantasy baseball. The chances shouldn’t be taken in the first 7 rounds though. Take the proven, consistent commodities that have a history of production. I love taking guys like Utley, Youk, Howard, Dunn, etc….I think you get the picture. I know what I’m getting and they never let you down. If you draft guys like these, you can take chances on the Ian Stewart types later knowing that you have a solid foundation.

  24. Tony says:
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    @Frank Rizzo: the back issues really worry me, any guy who’s had back troubles, not good…. maybe it was a one year thing, no big deal, but thats where i see a difference. Plus Votto will steal bases, maybe 10, Morneua isn’t going to run AT ALL. Average, plus SB’s, plus upside, plus the reds bandbox…. I’d want Votto. In the past 5 years Morneuas batted from .231 to .321? Kinda all over, basically he’s a .280 hitter even tho some people want to believe he’s a .300+ hitter. I wouldn’t bank on that. Maybe I just like the flashy new toy and not the good old reliable toy too? HA.

  25. Ian says:
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    Is anyone else having problems getting to their ESPN league pages? Or is it a network problem I’m having?

  26. Tony says:
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    @Ian: YA espn is not loading for me either, i can’t even get the main page up….

  27. Tony says:
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    @Ian: i lied, now its loading at least the main page….

  28. Soooo…basically this is a list of players you feel worth their ADP, that you would target? Or am I missing something?

  29. mc serch says:
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    Grey, like others I’m surprised to Lester missing from this list. I’ve been consistently picking him up in 6th round of mock drafts, taking him as first SP over position players like Dunn, N. Cruz, Abreu, Shane-O. Sometimes even Hamilton is still there. Am not sure that will continue to be the case come draft day but, assuming it is, you still down with that?

  30. mrbaseball says:
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    Justin Upton (Ari – OF) is going in the 2nd round of everydraft – there is no way anyone should be able to own him here – He is not a first round pick – come second round there is no way I want to use that pick on an OF – If I draft lets say 1. Mark Teixeira (NYY – 1B) first pick then I want o fill in my 2nd pick with a good 3B with some power – round 2 I feel he is way too high for him – he never makes it to the third round in a 12 team draft – looking at your numbers on him -2010 Projections: 80/27/95/.290/20 – I will take a 3B on my 2nd pick all the time -

  31. Mr.MojoRisin says:
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    @Tony & @Ian: I can’t even even register to espn right now. When I’m using Mozilla Firefox, their squiggly line thingy doesn’t have a submit button, but when I use IE, their squiggly line thingy doesn’t show the squiggly line picture.
    I wanted to try out their “New look fantasy site” see if it was worth anything. Oh well, ESPN blows anyway!

  32. mrbaseball says:
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    19 David Says:
    February 24th, 2010 at 6:51 am
    @Grey
    You need to be cautious about Ian Stewart. The guy still strikes out a ton and doesn’t make enough contact.

    everybody has a price – I like to draft him around round 10 – then he can strike out all he wants

  33. mrbaseball says:
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    # 30 mc serch Says:
    February 24th, 2010 at 8:05 am
    Grey, like others I’m surprised to Lester missing from this list.

    grey do him a favor and add him as your 25th player

  34. mrbaseball says:
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    BJ Upton – if you owned him last year – its pretty tough drafting him this year – he left a bad taste in my mouth – I will find steals somewhere else

  35. mc serch says:
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    @David: I agree with you on all three guys. The Upton brothers in particular require a bit of an investment. I like my first 6-7 picks to be as close to sure things as possible. Stewart I could see taking if its 11-12 rd and I still need a 2B…even then I might opt for Jose Lopez depending on what the rest of my team looked like.

  36. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @mrbaseball: I feel the same. I can deal with taking a 2b or a SS later but I absolutely need a 1b and a 3b that will get me 30+ HR’s and big RBI numbers also. It helps me sleep at night. I don’t typically reach in drafts but I will reach a little for Zimmerman this year if I’m at the top of the draft and need a 3b in the 2nd round.

  37. mrbaseball says:
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    Justin Upton – who are the drafters here that have a man crush on him and draft him in the 2nd round and in 100 words of more explain why you must have him in the 2nd round

  38. Ian says:
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    @Mr.MojoRisin: Hmm, most of ESPNs problems this morning seemed to have been solved, except when I click on my leagues, I get an error message saying the leagues don’t exist. And that includes an RCL league. Anyone else having this problem? It seems specific to me.

  39. mc serch says:
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    @mrbaseball: I had that same decision to make in the last draft I did. Took Teixeira at the 9th pick, and then hated the conventional options at pick 16 coming back around. Believe it or not R. Howard fell to me. I passed up Holliday and Grady to take Howard at pick 16. Maybe I should have taken Holliday, but I followed that up with Zimmerman, Cano and Granderson in rounds 3-5 before snatching Lester at 6. I don’t anticipate Howard falling that far in a real draft. I really hate the second round this year.

  40. mrbaseball says:
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    hey frank you can’t sleep at night with Michael Young as your third base man – try sleeping pills

  41. mrbaseball says:
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    # 40 mc serch Says: thats why they are called Mock drafts – in real life Howard is long gone by pick #16 – anything can happen in the word of make beleive drafts

  42. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @mc serch: I’ve seen Howard fall as well.

    In an espn mock I did last night for a 10 team, Teixeira dropped to pick #15 overall. I remarked on it and a couple guys in the mock remarked on how Tex was nothing special since he was at a position that was really deep. Some of these power hitting 1b’s are being taken for granted. I love them and in a 10 team league drafting at the end of the 1st, I wouldn’t hesitate to draft Teixeira and Howard 1 and 2. I like drafting for power at the top of the draft and filling in other offensive categories later.

  43. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @mrbaseball: I’d need more than sleeping pills if I had to roll out Young as my 3b every day. I’d be looking for a trade.

  44. Frank Rizzo says:
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    FYI – ESPN has Kemp ranked 6th overall and Crawford 8th overall. I will probably not be owning either if they’re taken in those spots. Definitely not Crawford.

  45. mrbaseball says:
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    Hey Frank was that Matthew Berry in your draft room that said Tex was nothing special since he was at a position that was really deep. Some of these power hitting 1b’s are being taken for granted. :)

  46. Tony says:
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    @Frank Rizzo: in a 10 teamer maybe, in a 12 team mock i have tried the power/power 1B combo a few times, i usually dont like the outcome, seems like when i do that then ALL the 3B get sniped on the way back and i’m sitting there with a 1b/1b/OF’er…. not horrible to start the draft off with a 90-100HR’s, but you’re then left grabbing for other pos’s….

  47. mrbaseball says:
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    I end up doing mostly 14 teams drafts – after doing 12 teams mock drafts – I am sure I will hate my drafts in the 14 team leagues

  48. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Mic: Cruz is fine.

    @jsp2014: I do like him, but I feel like he’s going quicker than I can get to him.

    @The Hebrew Hammer: There’s auction prices here: http://razzball.com/2010-fantasy-baseball-rankings/2010-razzball-projected-point-shares-12-team-chone/

    @The Cino: Actually does make sense.

    @Pins on Shins: Someone asked for this post…

    @Tony: Grandy has a bit more upside, Werth will hopefully reach what he did last year…

    @Real Tom: Cool

    @Pancakes: Pancakes, you confused me, gotta come again.

    @donniebball: I think you should get Upton and something. Zimmerman’s too much. I’d want at least a cheap upside guy, think Andrus and Upton.

    @AJ: The only thing that kept Lester off was I’ve been seeing him go before I would take him. If he’s around 70th, like I have Hamels above, I would take him. I would take Johan in the sixth, which I have in a mock, but that doesn’t seem like the norm.

    @Obmij76: Ha!

    @Custom Bobble Head: Yeah, there’s players I would grab before their ADP, but it’s pretty draft-dependent.

    @grandysdandy: Holliday, Wright… Real close, not easy choice.

    @Frank Rizzo: Cool, thanks for the kind words. I wouldn’t take Upton over them for 2010.

    @sean: Ha!

    @Frank Rizzo: Depends on the team… If I had Upton, I’d take Morneau.

    @sean: 1) Werth looks completely real. 2) Yes

    @majortommy: I think Sandoval’s slightly overrated.

    @the fake tom: Worth their ADP.

    @mc serch: The only thing that kept Lester off was I’ve been seeing him go before I would take him. If he’s around 70th, like I have Hamels above, I would take him. I would take Johan in the sixth, which I have in a mock, but that doesn’t seem like the norm.

    @mrbaseball: Ha!

  49. Tony says:
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    @mrbaseball: YA on yahoo they’re all ranked 12-15? Insanity. But i love it… with yahoo ranking tulo, lincecum and mauer before the 12th spot (where i draft) its making my chances of having my pick of 1B much easier…. instead of HOPING they slide….

  50. mrbaseball says:
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    Hey tony who listens to yahoo ranks – the only reason I look at their rankings are to see when any of GREYS players are coming up to make sure no one gets them by just dump luck

  51. Mike says:
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    I agree about Upton. Yes he has a ton of upside, but I am not spending a 2nd round pick on him. ESPN’s projections for Upton are close to ridiculous in my opinion. 98/37/109/.288/23 is possible I suppose but I am taking the under.

  52. mrbaseball says:
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    dumb luck not dump luck

  53. mc serch says:
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    @Frank Rizzo: Agreed, I follow similar strategy. At this point, it appears the question in 12 team draft is whether, after snatching big 1B in Round 1, to reach for Zimmerman in the 2d Round after Wright goes, or roll the dice and hope you’ll get either Zimm or Youk in 3d Rd.

  54. Tony says:
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    @mrbaseball: i listen to yahoo ranks, BECAUSE… there will be a couple guys in my league who knows their stuff but just go with different strategies. Then there’s always a a guy or two that are gonna look at the ranks and ONLY look at the next 10 or so players and draft from those 10. OR the guy who “tries to pick guys he had from last year that he liked”.

    I dont really listen to them, i set my own preranks and go from that but i’ll flip the ranks back and forth to see what these guys might be looking at next, who are values and where I might need to take a guy to ensure i get him (if i have to have him).

  55. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @Grey: If you can’t have Lester on there because he’s going too soon, then you should probably drop Cano too. He’s ranked 31st on ESPN and he’s going way too high.

  56. mrbaseball says:
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    yahoo top 25

    Albert Pujols
    Hanley Ramírez
    Álex Rodríguez
    Chase Utley
    Ryan Braun
    Matt Kemp
    Troy Tulowitzki
    Joe Mauer
    David Wright
    Evan Longoria
    Mark Teixeira
    Ryan Howard
    Prince Fielder
    Miguel Cabrera
    Ian Kinsler
    Justin Upton
    Matt Holliday
    Jacoby Ellsbury
    Dustin Pedroia
    Carl Crawford
    Adrián González
    Grady Sizemore
    Joey Votto
    Kevin Youkilis
    Ichiro Suzuki

  57. Tony says:
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    @mrbaseball: see i love tht mauer, lince and tulo are where they are…. i also love that pedroia and ichiro are on this list…. they’re so high some dumb dumb is going to grab them leaving the actual “GOOD PLAYERS” for smart razzballers….

  58. mrbaseball says:
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    Mark Teixeira – for those who will jump on him – I issue one warning – He is a slow starter – it will take him until mid May to get going – that is throughout his career – maybe a healthy arod will help somewhat but I doubt it -

  59. Tony says:
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    @mrbaseball: ya thats a given, i’ve seen people argue “well if he hits in april/may then…..”

    well people he’s not gonna, he’s a career .240 something hitter…. for H2H tho he’s a beast, hot down the stretch….

    it will be interesting to see him with a healthy arod all year, i will agree. I dont think that makes him a 50HR hitter (like i’ve also seen someone hint at) but he’s def’ly a low 40′s candidate with a SOLID average and RBI total.

  60. Tarasco'sSecretStash says:
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    @ Grey: You like Headley or Encarnacion better as a 3B hail mary? Thanks.

  61. GTG says:
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    Keeper question for 12-team 5×5 league: Utley, Howard, Teix, Zimm no brainers. Last keeper: Cruz, Bay or Quentin? Or do I drop them all and get a 5th round draft pick. I think I want Cruz’s SB potential over Bay and Quentin…

  62. GopherDay says:
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    C: Matt Wieters
    1B: Adrian Gonzalez
    2B: Brandon Phillips
    SS: Ben Zobrist
    3B: Evan Longoria
    OF: Nelson Cruz
    OF: Matt Kemp
    OF: Andrew McCutchen
    Util: Joey Votto
    Util: Nyjer Morgan
    BN:

    SP: Tim Lincecum
    SP: Zack Greinke
    SP: Chad Billingsley
    RP: David Aardsma
    RP: Carlos Marmol
    P: Jonathan Broxton
    P: Clay Bucholze
    P: Edwin Jackson
    BN: Huston Street

    Should I keep Stephen Drew or Elvis Andrus as my final keeper? I’ll be looking to trade Zobrist for a pitcher, then slotting either Drew or Elvis at SS.

    Thanks!

  63. Tony says:
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    @GTG: I think you have to go Bay or Cruz and I’d go BAY due to more of a track record.

  64. gaucho says:
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    Just about everyone is worth owning if you can get them in the right round or price. That is part of the reason I love auction leagues, you can always get someone you really want and there is always value you can steal.

    How about a list of guys you would overpay for?

  65. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @gaucho: Yeah, I might be able to do that.

  66. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @Grey: Wow. That would instantly put Figgins up in my top 5 of 2b’s. This will change things at 2b. Watch Figgins start going in the 4th/5th of drafts now if Seattle goes through with this change.

  67. Tony says:
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    @Grey: I’m thinking if LOPEZ gets 3B eligibility he bumps up? Personally I think he’s interesting there…

    25/96 with 3sb’s and a .272 average in 2009
    17/89 with 6sb’s and a .297 average in 2008

  68. Tony says:
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    @Frank Rizzo: hahah you like figgins moving i like lopez…. kinda funny.

  69. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Frank Rizzo: @Tony: Bumps up Figgins quite a bit, Lopez stays about the same in my rankings… But I have Lopez above where most people have him already.

  70. Tony says:
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    @Grey: why is that grey? just because you like that Stolen base kinda guy at 2B and a power guy at the corner more?

  71. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tony: I have Lopez already at 105, which is above where most people have him so I think he’s probably just fine there. Figgins at 3rd I didn’t want because of steals at 3rd aren’t exciting to me, but at 2nd base, I can handle Figgins’s steals.

  72. Tony says:
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    @Grey: gotya… any worries about figgins age and injuries he had for a couple years in a row there…? i cant even remember what he had wrong with him.

  73. Falcon says:
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    @Grey: Grey, if you’re doing a piece on guys that are overvalued, a good companion piece would be to see which guys you might be over/under valuing.

    I have been tracking which players have the biggest gap between your ranking and Yahoo ADP:

    (in no particular order)
    Teixera 6.3 gap
    Crawford 7.5 gap
    Mauer 22.3 gap
    Tulo 7.4 gap
    Sizemore 8.1 gap
    Morneau 23 gap !
    Reyes 22.8 gap
    Reynolds 16.4 gap

    Anyway, thoughts? Is this a legit way of identifying risk?

  74. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tony: He hasn’t been on the DL since May of ’08, then it was a thigh. I’m not worried.

    @Falcon: It’s just hard to do these pieces that you guys are asking for, because reaching for a guy from whose rankings? Mine to Yahoo? Mine to ESPN? We’ll see. People are just valuing players differently. What I find most times is people overvalue what happened last year.

  75. sean says:
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    @mc serch: Only sheer panic could drive someone to selecting Zimmerman in the second. That, or strict adherence to some strategy that you MUST come out of the first two rounds with a 3B and he’s the best available.

    I think Grey ranks him 29th, so that you take him in the third if he’s there and you have need because he believes that 2009 is for real. Others have Zimmerman closer to 40. I think this goes back to that Shandler article. If Grey had him 40th, you’d think he was lukewarm on him and you might let him slide in the fourth hoping to get him int he 5th to represent value, but he’ll likely be gone by then.

  76. Eric H. says:
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    @Grey: Is there some value in taking a guy like Joe Nathan near his actual ADP if you know the owners in your league overvalue closers (especially the big name ones like Nathan, Papelbon, Broxton, Rivera, etc.)? And then using him as part of a package to get a bat that you covet but maybe missed out on? *Most* owners in my league overvalue closers IMO, so I’m trying to think of a way to use that to my advantage, rather than just passing on them. Thoughts?

  77. Griff says:
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    @mrbaseball: I’ll oblige.

    Why Justin Upton should be taken in the 2nd round (late):

    Last year, at the age of 22–I repeat, 22–he went 26/20 in only 138 games. Real-life baseball scouts think his career numbers will be comparable to Frank Robinson (586 HR, 204 SB).

    You shouldn’t base risk-taking on what round it is. You should base it on whether the player in question is worth the price. Do you believe Upton could be number 1 at the end of this year? I do. Given what he did last year, 25/85/85/20 is basically his basement. All indications are that his upside is as good as anyone else’s in the game.

    I’m not saying that he will be above Pujols at the end of the year. I do think there’s a strong likelihood that he will be top 5 at the end of the year. Compared to “safe” picks like Holliday, Adrian, Youk, V-Mart, I think Upton is a pick that wins championships.

  78. Tony says:
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    @sean: Ya but lets say its near the end of the second, say you’re the 3rd pick, i’d rather take Zimmerman KNOWING i’m gonna get him, let the next two guys take 4 players and not RISK having him not come back… between those picks there’s just not enough difference…. it just depends…. if you think you’re gonna wait til the end or middle of the 3rd you’re not going to own him in any 12+ team league.

  79. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eric H.: I wouldn’t draft a guy to trade him that early in a draft… I might draft someone like Borbon, thinking I could trade him, but he comes much later. Closers do have excellent resale value though.

  80. Tom Reale says:
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    @majortommy: Sandoval was already covered…you can go look it up…Panda Slim is one of the fantasy fave’s this year which means he is going a little earlier than he should…plus 25 HRs is all you can hope for, while other options have more upside…its not just who you take but when you take them…

  81. GopherDay says:
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    @Grey: Speaking of which, what tier of pitchers should I look to get for Zorrilla??

  82. sean says:
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    @Tony: It depends on a lot of things. Like, first, if you’re the third pick, you probably have A-Rod already. If not, you’re only really worrying about two guys that can snipe you: Team Pujols and Team HanRam. Again, a lot of variables, but I’d take my chances that Zimmerman survives to pick 27. If you draft him 22nd, is he really likely to exceed that number? Probably not. The closer you draft him to his ADP (CBS 38, MDC 34), you can net some solid value.

    Maybe you just see Zimmerman differently than I do. To me, his big selling point is that he’s a guy who may slide into the fourth that can produce second-round numbers. I’m not blaming you for being bullish on Zimmerman. I think he’s underappreciated. I just don’t know that I’d gamble the mortgage on him.

  83. Frogurt says:
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    Are you going to update the top 300 spreadsheet over time? Ie. Will Figgy get a bump on that site? Has Jurrjens already been lowered there? I plan on using it on draft day.
    Thanks for all you do!

  84. mc serch says:
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    @sean: Well its not that I need to come out of the first two rounds with a 3B, but i do want to come out of the draft with a 3b no worse than Zimm/Youk…Reynolds is risky to me until he does it again (and he’s a BA drain anyway). Sandoval, I also want to see him do it again. Aramis Ramirez? I went that route last year, no thanks. So, if Arod, Longo and Wright are all off the board by early to mid 2d round, what then? Take a risky or lackluster 2d rounder (Rollins, J-Up, Crawford, Grady) and then roll the dice again hoping that Zimm or Youk will still be there in round 3? For me, it is as much a question of a lackluster 2d round as it is a shallow year for 3B.

  85. Martin says:
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    @grey- have u heard of the SIERA fantasy baseball idea. What do you think/who does it promote.

  86. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Frogurt: I’m updating the spreadsheet. Need to find two seconds to do it. I already updated the top 300 rankings with Jurrjens.

    @Martin: It promotes Baseball Prospectus.

    EDIT: Word.

  87. Eddy says:
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    Here’s something to give you guys a laugh

    “Outfielder Josh Hamilton, who played just 89 games last year because of injuries, left Wednesday’s first full-squad workout with a bruised left shoulder”

    So soon?!? Oh well, it’s not like I ever drafted him to begin with.

  88. Steve says:
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    @Grey: RE: assembling your team, you gotta stay flexible though, right?

    Can’t have your entire draft collaspe in a heap just because you didn’t get the guy you wanted in the third round.

  89. majortommy says:
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    @Tom Reale: MDC has Zimmerman going at #34 and Yuke at #35. Panda rings in at #40.
    Zimmerman had never hit more than 24 hrs til last year, was that a fluke he hit 33, or has he matured into a better power hitter? I think it was alittle flukey and would be surprised to see him crack 30 again. But if it is not a fluke then why can’t Sandoval make the same leap(wich isn’t even a leap bet a small step). Sure Pablos BABIP was a little on the high side(.350) but Yukes was even higher (.359) yet his real average was 25 points lower. Sandoval ISO power was lower than the other two, yet his slugging % was higher. Line up is the only real disadvantage that Karate Panda has. The Gianst are a terrible offensive club. But if I don’t have a 3rd baseman and Pablo is there at pick 40 I am thrilled!

  90. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Yeah, definitely.

  91. Eddy says:
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    @majortommy:
    I thought he only knew Kung-Fu. He’s mastered karate too?

  92. majortommy says:
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    @Eddy: I hate to pigeon hole the dude in one style, he has not mastered it but he could take you or me with his Karate(not to mention Kareem).

  93. Lava says:
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    Re: Hamilton,

    Yikes, but it’s not like a bruised shoulder is a torn or pulled muscle or tendon, or anything. I think I’ll still aim for him as one of my outfielders, but early injury news is always troubling.

  94. Eddy says:
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    @majortommy:
    Duly noted.
    @Grey and any Razzballer
    Am I the only advocate of pairing up guys from the same team in H2H leagues? It seems to me that having Werth/Howard, N.Morgan/Zimmerman, or Tex/Grandy can reap huge benefits in H2H leagues. I obviously don’t base my draft picks on this, but after having Damon/Tex/A-Rod last season, it’s certainly something I keep in mind.

    Does anyone else think of this or am I just psycho?

  95. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: Doesn’t enter the picture for me.

  96. majortommy says:
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    @Eddy: I have Utley and Howard in my H2H keeper league and love it, but mostly because i love Utley and Howard, not because they play for the same team. I don’t actively seek guys from the same team, but it doesn’t hinder my picking either.

  97. Tom Reale says:
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    @Eddy: “When its good its so, so good, but when its bad”…or something like that…what I mean is you will have much bigger swings that way…really good weeks really bad weeks…having 3 hitters on the best offense didn’t hurt though…
    @majortommy: I have Kareem on my fantasy karate team and he would smoke Slimfast Panda!

  98. Eddy says:
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    @majortommy:
    I just think that there are a couple of times in the season (more than couple for Utley and Howard) where a clean-up guy will homer and drive in your 3rd batter and net you an extra run if you have both on your team. Sure it may not sound like much, but we all know how many times just one more point in H2H would’ve helped.

    But as I mentioned before, it’s not a huge deal for me, and I actually notice these things after the draft.

  99. Eddy says:
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    @Tom Reale:
    I definitely hear ya on the slumps. I remember a SP shut out the Yanks one day last season and boy did I suffer that day. Not to mention off-days!

  100. majortommy says:
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    @Tom Reale: I tried to trade away kareem in my league but couldn’t even get Jean-Claude Van Damme for him! Taekwondo Panda would smoke both of them!!!!

  101. PigBodine says:
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    if jose lopez moves anywhere it wont be to 3rd it will be to 1st base, where he logged a few innings last year.

    as far a zimmerman’s 30+ HR’s being a fluke i don’t think so. looks more like a young power hitter’s natural growth progression. the best at 3rd base debate will rage on for years now- wright, longoria & zimmerman. 3 studs at the hot corner for the next decade

  102. majortommy says:
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    @Eddy: I here you, it is like double dipping in football when your QB and WR play for the same team and they hookup(for a TD, not in a Tiger Woods way). Sure it is nice to see the scroll and look at the Phillies winning 13-5, except when you log on and realize that Werth, Rollins and Victorino have done all the damage!!!

  103. majortommy says:
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    @majortommy: hahahaha
    *please replace here with hear* in the above message

  104. majortommy says:
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    @PigBodine: If you haven’t noticed I believe that Crane Kick Panda will belong in the discussion also(especially if the Giants brass get their heads out of their asses and bring in some offensive talent)

  105. zk says:
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    I posted this on another thread, but we’re getting this draft underway and no one can find a definitive answer.

    Minor League question:

    We have a separate Minor League draft in my league. We added a clause two years ago to prevent the guy with the #1 pick from taking Kosuke Fukudome (I know, I know, but at the time he looked like a lock to at least be a regular player). That clause says that a player must have Minor League experience (like one AB or IP) to be selected. Maybe you can guess where this is going, but Strasburg is about to be selected first overall, and that owner is objecting. We meant for the rule to include players drafted in the Amateur draft, but we didn’t spell it out in writing.

    My question: does the Arizona Fall League count as minor league experience?

  106. majortommy says:
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    I would think that as long as he is being paid to play baseball then that counts as experience.

  107. ColonelTommy says:
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    @PigBodine: Agreed. Zimmerman and Longo…the future…Sandoval…ehhh

  108. Tom Reale says:
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    I agree to

  109. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @zk: No, the AFL does not.

  110. Tom Reale says:
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    @ColonelTommy: I was talking about Sandoval being ehhh…

  111. sean says:
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    @zk: No. Dumb rule. Consider switching to rosters (25-man for regular MLB draft and 40-man for your supplemental).

  112. maddogrusso says:
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    @grey Why no Andre Ethier or Justin Verlander?

  113. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @maddogrusso: As I said in the above, I’d own any of the guys in the top 100, but some players go a bit before I’d probably take them. Verlander’s a beast, I might own him somewhere, but such is life.

  114. Jeff W. says:
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    @GREY:

    I finally bought you a drink (I bought you one last year, too) because I’ve been reading you for so long for free. Thanks for doin’ what you do.

    I just wanted to encourage everyone to do the same — donate, that is. Not just read you for free.

    -JW

  115. Pirate Jesus says:
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    12-team H2H: Staff of Lincecum, Felix, Kershaw, Scherzer, Broxton, Aardsma.

    Would you rather have Floyd, Ervin, Hudson, Harden, Sheets, Bedard, Buehrle, or Blanton?

  116. Stephen says:
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    @majortommy: Sorry my post took so long, I was at my internship and was unable to respond speedily.

  117. PJtres says:
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    Mista Grey A.,
    I read your rankings, but wanted to pose a tactical question for you (in case it changed who you would take where)

    …lets say you have 5 studs (1b, 2b, 3b, 3b, C) as position players and Lester going into the first round of draft in a keeper league…

    there are limited options at both areas where i need help.
    I have the #5 pick, and the #13 pick

    im not keeping an OF (and most elite options are gone)
    im only keeping lester (and most of the elite top 20 are gone too)

    If I target SP…i would be picking from hanson, kershaw, nolasco, cain, baker, bills
    or
    If I target OF…i would pick from abreu, choo, quentin, span, victorino, carlos lee

    who do you take?
    2 SP? 1/1 2OF?

    Thanks.

  118. Ian Stewart Guy says:
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    Is Ian Stewart going to lose any AB to Barmes, Young, etc in a platoon scenario, or do you think he could get 500+?

  119. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @PJtres: Without knowing your position players it’s hard to say. Probably 1/1.

    @Ian Stewart Guy: If he slumps badly to start the year, it’s possible.

  120. Pirate Jesus says:
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    Seeing that daiquiri banner ad finally got me… though I hope the only place you’re ordering one of those is in a pool on vacation. Thanks for all the hard work that goes into the site! Long-time reader but never commented until this season. You guys really provide something unique here.

  121. PJtres says:
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    @ Grey
    Position players are Miguel Cab, Utley, Arod, Longoria, Vmart, Lester

  122. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @PJtres: I’d go for Lee and Nolasco.

  123. GopherDay says:
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    Grey, how would you suggest adjusting rankings due to extra categories? I am in a league this year that has Ks for hitters. On further investigation, turns out a lot of the players I like drafting happen to strike out a good amount (Longo, Wright, Howard, etc) How far would you devalue them and how far should I place some guys up?

    Someone like Jacoby Ellsbury…I wouldn’t touch him in a normal league, but he only struck out 74 times last year in 600 ABs. Should I consider drafting him??

    Any insight is greatly appreciated!

  124. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GopherDay: I wouldn’t worry about it early on. I’d look at that as something to think about later on. For instance, maybe Polanco is someone you look at since he doesn’t strikeout much. Or Pierre. Etc.

  125. Brian says:
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    Grey, I didn’t read all 132 posts so you may have addressed this, but are you avoiding Morneau? Or just saying you’d take Youk and Votto over him? Or both?

  126. Brian says:
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    Oh, and another question that has nothing to do with this. Could you see yourself drafting any one other than Pujols with the #1 pick? I’ve seen it a few times in the mock drafts and I don’t see myself ever doing that.

  127. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Brian: Also don’t think you read the post, I said I’d own any of the top 22, except Lincecum. Morneau’s ranked 22nd. I’d take Pujols.

  128. Brian says:
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    @Grey: Ah yeah I was under the assumption Morneau was beyond the top 22 based on mock drafts I’ve been doing…I should have looked.

Comments are closed.