Fantasy Baseball Advice

Things change in fantasy baseball. Daily. I could put Hanley Ramirez number one on the top 100 list for the second half of 2008 and he could get injured tomorrow. Or Alex Rodriguez could announce he’s skipping out on all August games to join Madonna on tour for the remake of the Madonna: Truth or Dare movie with Arod playing the part of Warren Beatty. This list may not be relevant two weeks for now. Or it may be completely correct in two months and you’ll want to join the Church of Grey. There’s no membership fees. Sin all you want. Just don’t trade for Ryan Zimmerman. This list is NOT (Caps for emphasis, not aesthetics) where I see guys ending up if you were to take the first half and combine it with the 2nd half of their season. This is simply a list of the top hundred fantasy baseball players if you were to pick them up on the first day of the 2nd half. So while Kouzmanoff did not have a solid first half, he will appear on this list because I like him more for the 2nd half. Anyway, here’s the top 100 for fantasy baseball for the 2nd half. (Also, download Rudy Gamble’s 2nd half fantasy baseball projections for 2008.)

1. Alex Rodriguez – I’d trade my left nut for Arod. In fact, to prove a point, I just did. Are you happy? I’m one-nutted now. You’re welcome.
2. Hanley Ramirez – And there goes my right nut. Now I’m a woman.
3. Jose Reyes – To answer the Bee Gees, my love goes deep, especially for Reyes. He’s on pace for 135/18/70/.300/60. I think he exceeds those steals numbers, which means he does better in the 2nd half.
4. Chase Utley – My only regret this season is not having him on one team. I thought he should go 7th in the beginning of the year and I just never had the right pick.
5. David Wright – His average usually picks up in the 2nd half and he fills every category.
6. Matt Holliday – Think he can chip in ten steals while hitting twenty home runs in the 2nd half. Oh, and a .330 average.
7. Albert Pujols – I’m starting to feel like he’s overrated. .340/17/45 is solid for the 2nd half, but he’s that much better than Teixiera?
8. Lance Berkman – I think he slows down a bit as the season wears on and when he realizes he’s doing it all for nothing. Making the season count out of nothing at all…
9. Johan Santana – No reason why he can’t win 12 games in the second half, even though he only won 8 in the first. Recognize!
10. Ryan Braun – 17/10 in the 2nd half as the Hebrew Hammer does work at the plate on every day but Yom Kippur (<—-forced!).
11. Ryan Howard – Gets to 50/150. You take that with a .250 average and you like it.
12. Prince Fielder – Hey, why do my Tofutti Cuties taste like hamburger? *Yost smiles devilishly*
13. Miguel Cabrera – As I have said before, he’ll have the same numbers at the end of the year he always has.
14. Mark Teixeira – PABST, Post-All-Star Break Stud Teixeira.
15. Grady Sizemore – 15/15/.270 Tastes like Rollins with more power.
16. Jimmy Rollins – Tastes like Sizemore with more steals.
17. Josh Hamilton – First one I don’t feel completely comfortable with, but after his first half I couldn’t drop him any further.
18. Carl Crawford – Strong 2nd half last year. A force in steals, runs and average.
19. Jake Peavy – If the DL-stint this year didn’t worry me, he’d be sitting in first class with Santana.
20. Brandon Webb – His 2nd half last year was insane. I wouldn’t bank on any player to be the same this year as they were last year. It’s not how things work, but I still think he can be excellent.
21. Carlos Lee – Lisa Gray, who’s funny for a broad, calls him Clank Lee. (A funny girl who knows baseball? You schmohawks should be combing your hair just reading that.)
22. Ichiro Suzuki – I don’t know why I can’t get behind Ichiro. I love sushi. Love! I once dated a Japanese girl, which turned out miserably, but other than my current girlfriend, they all end badly, right? I mean, at some point in every relationship you gotta say, “The sound of your breathing irritates me. Let’s breakup.”
23. Ian Kinsler – He can actually build on his 1st half power, but his average will probably come down.
24. Nick Markakis – On the last day of the season, when Markakis reaches 110/30/110/.315/20, there will be a party at my house called, “My Girlfriend Gets Me Back On The Final Day Of The Season If I Still Have A Girlfriend By Then” Party. Hopefully she gets us a stripper.
25. Brandon Phillips – Every single time I rank him, I always want to drop him further, except if I’m ranking overrated players. For some reason, Phillips always makes me feel like this reporter.
26. CC Sabathia – I almost moved him above Peavy, that’s how much I like him in the 2nd half.
27. Vladimir Guerrero – Almost 40 points below his career average, I think he gets much closer to it, which would make for a very hot 2nd half.
28. Carlos Beltran – My placement of so many Mets in the top 30 shows I obviously think they’re going to continue their winning ways. I’m not exactly a fan of Willie Randolph, but it’s a shame that Manual will get credit for the Mets’ resurgence. They are just playing how they should’ve been the whole time, which, in this case, is very good.
29. Aramis Ramirez - I’m still a fan even though I feel like the first half of the year he was giving his owners a dutch pantry. (The first entry, of course. BTW, why is Dutch an adjective that equals kinky shizz dealing with farts? Or you “can go Dutch?” Which is splitting a check. Don’t try and figure this out. You’ll just waste precious man hours.)
30. Justin Morneau – I just went over why I like Morneau.
31. Garrett Atkins – The last two seasons’ second halves have been tremendous. I kinda wanted to push him into the top 30, but his HRs just haven’t been high enough.
32. Chipper Jones – What’s left on the Braves’s season? 67 games. Chipper makes a run at 40 of them, but not a run at .400.
33. Derrek Lee – Mostly a yawn after April. Swapping him for Howard would’ve been the move. But you didn’t do that, did you?
34. B.J. Upton – And, unlike Brandon Phillips, I always wanna move Upton, um, up. Maybe because his initials are BJ. I gotta call my shrink and tell her I’m making progress!
35. Nate McLouth – Tastes like Sizemore but much riskier.
36. Alfonso Soriano – I hope this is the year of the Cubs just so I don’t have to hear how this is the year for the Cubs every year. BTW, Soriano is this low because he has an injured hand. I wouldn’t want to mortgage the farm on a hitter with an injured hand. But he has shown great resiliency in the past so he could be a bargain.
37. Robinson Cano – I’m drunk on my love for Cano. Leave me alone.
38. Adrian Gonzalez – I don’t think he gets above 35 HRs. He’s at 22 HRs. You do the math!
39. Jacoby Ellsbury – 5/30 with a kagillion runs is great. Hopefully his average doesn’t continue to dip.
40. Corey Hart – Just a bit off of Sizemore in terms of production and “getting ladies,” which I guess could be consider production, as well.
41. Josh Beckett – Only a few pitchers moved up in the top 100 from where they appeared in the March top 100.
42. Curtis Granderson – He’s one of the few players that I disliked in March that I actually like more now. Primarily because of his ‘07 post-All-Star Break numbers.
43. Cole Hamels – Few pitchers give you 8 Ks even when they have an off game.
44. Bobby Abreu – 10/10 with a chance for a pile of runs and RBIs.
45. Matt Kemp – Power has come on, his Ks are a bit worrisome, but I’m finally buying.
46. Carlos Pena – For those looking for someone who can hit 20 HRs in the 2nd half. Here’s one. I actually like Pena more now than in the beginning of the season. Partly because he can’t have a much worse half than his 1st.
47. Adam Dunn – Here’s another post-All-Star Break twenty home run possibility.
48. Manny Ramirez – The season is long and Manny’s attention span is short. This is the time of year I don’t want Manny.
49. Dan Uggla – If he only hits 10 HRs in the 2nd half with a .240 average, you’ll wish you had Yunel.
50. Roy Halladay – Halladay looks like he’s everything he used to be, but hadn’t been for the past two years. If that makes sense.
51. Jason Bay – I wanted to drop him even further, but when someone’s on pace for 36/10 with respectable peripherals you just can’t do it.
52. Torii Hunter – He’s one hot streak away from a 17/10 2nd half.
53. Carlos Zambrano – One of the few pitchers that’s at even odds for ten wins after the Break.
54. Brian Roberts – Bad three year Post-All-Star Break average and he slows down in the 2nd half.
55. Magglio Ordonez – I don’t feel good about his placement in the rankings because of the injury, but he should be back right after the All-Star Break.
56. Carlos Quentin – I’m worried the average keeps falling, that’s why he’s ranked this low. If you, ya know, were wondering.
57. Michael Young – Two shots of solid, one shot of steady and absolutely no excitement.
58. Shane Victorino – I feel like The Flying Hawaiian is not getting his due. His pace 110/9/55/.280/40. To think some people dropped him in the beginning of the season. Or traded him to Rudy for Matt Capps.
59. John Lackey – Yes, I’m a fetishist for NL pitchers, but I likey Lackey. The problem is the injury in the beginning of the year and his last two starts.
60. Dan Haren – His 2nd half troubles last year are well-documented, I won’t tack on more of the same.
61. Pat Burrell – One of the few players who I would double their stats to this point and say that’s close to what you’re going to get on the season.
62. Brian McCann – Putting up Victor Martinez numbers while V-Mart puts up Jason Kendall numbers. Weird!
63. Geovany Soto – For the search term “Geovany,” this guy used to be on the first page of Google. Nice hat!
64. Justin Verlander – As we said the other day, “Since June 1, 8 starts, 5 Wins, 55 IP, 52 Ks, ERA/WHIP in the 2.70/1.10 area.” And that’s me quoting us!
65. Joe Nathan – Current number one closer in my book. But my book is titled, “I’d Never Draft A Number One Closer.”
66. Jonathan Papelbon – Should be trading these closers sooner rather than later, if you have holes elsewhere.
67. Francisco Rodriguez - Just because he closed 38 games in the 1st half doesn’t mean he reaches 55.
68. Mariano Rivera – And the closer run ends.
69. Tim Lincecum – Innings will begin to pileup and the Giants (if they have any sense in their collective heads) will limit Lincecum in the 2nd half.
70. Kevin Kouzmanoff – So far he’s hit .293 in July. Last year in the 2nd half, he hit .317 with 11 HRs. Maybe this is his thing.
71. Brad Lidge – His Ks can actually make a difference.
72. Chone Figgins – There’s very few players on this list that can impact one category like a healthy Figgins.
73. Derek Jeter – If Jeter starts dating Arod’s ex-wife, I’ll draft him in the first round next year, until that time…
74. Ervin Santana – A decent bet to get to 20 wins and possibly 200 Ks. He’s only ranked this low because he’s never done any of this before.
75. Adrian Beltre – In past years, even when he wasn’t good in the 1st half, he’s been solid in the 2nd half.
76. Mike Jacobs – See no reason why he can’t go .260/15/40 which could be better than Adrian Gonzalez. Cust kayin’.
77. Evan Longoria – Hey, Alex Gordon, this is how you don’t let people down.
78. Chris B. Young – I tried to do these rankings for the most part without looking at my top 100 from March. But I peeked in at where I ranked Krispie. In the 90s. So not only did Krispie have an awful 1st half, but he jumped 12 spots up. He’s failing upwards! Well, this is another sign that these rankings are really trying to look forward instead of look back. I don’t like a lot about Krispie, but his splits last year leaned towards the 2nd half of the year and really all we care about is the 2nd half.
79. Alexis Rios – I hope he finishes strong just so I can stop the hate mail over the winter.
80. Troy Tulowitzki – There’s really nothing that points to Tulo being placed this high. He started off miserably, got hurt, came back with limited results then hurt himself again. So why is he ranked here for the 2nd half? Because if I had to choose between Carlos Guillen and a healthy Tulo, I’d try my hand at Tulo.
81. Carlos Guillen – I’m not a huge fan of Guillen to begin with and his 2nd half last season wasn’t good.
82. Jhonny Peralta – Second to only Hanley and Michael Young for shortstop HRs and RBIs respectively.
83. Chad Billingsley – I believesley.
84. Ben Sheets – I kinda wanted to drop him off the list because of injury history and last year’s 2nd half.
85. Russell Martin – I suppose a catcher going 7/7 excites some.
86. David Ortiz – Papi will hold his best for the playoffs and the Sox will be fine with it.
87. Milton Bradley – It’s just a matter of keeping the injuries in check. The talent was always there.
88. James Shields – Notice who he’s ranked just in front of. The significance is deafening.
89. Scott Kazmir – I put him right after Shields to magnify who I like better. Shields. Dur.
90. Jason Giambi – Stumbled a bit into the All-Star Break, but he can have a ten home run month and pile on the RBIs
91. Paul Konerko – Three year post-All-Star Break average is 16/44/.297.
92. Jeff Francoeur – What, you can root for Hamilton to turn his life around, but you can’t root for Frenchy to turn around his season?
93. Alex Gordon – If he can turn it on this 2nd half like he did last year, he’s worth this spot. If he doesn’t, he further infuriates me. You’ve been warned, Gordon!
94. Hunter Pence – Can be a 15/10 guy in the 2nd half. (I’m not sure I believe that myself, but he can go 15/10. Nope, still don’t believe it.)
95. Miguel Tejada – I considered leaving him off and he seems like he won’t be anything but a higher profile name putting up Kelly Johnson-type numbers.
96. Rickie Weeks – Throw him in Krispie’s sidecar as someone who doesn’t deserve to be on the list, but what he can do makes him impossible to leave off. Actually, I could’ve left him off but I didn’t.
97. Mike Lowell – He’s Puerto Rican and only 34. I always find that curious. Anyway, carry on.
98. Kevin Youkilis – I know he has a history of 2nd half swooning, but he wasn’t even good in June and July last year and he has been this year. I’m going to go out on a wild limb here and say he wins the AL MVP with numbers like 115/30/125/.320/5.
99. Edinson Volquez – When rookie pitchers start to accumulate too many innings, struggles turn to rotation spots being skipped. Then again, Management, “Dusty, you need to limit Edinson’s innings.” Cut to: Dusty’s blank stare.
100. Joey Votto – More valuable than Bruce.
101. Erik Bedard – Because no top 100 list is complete without a 101. Liked Bedard coming into the season. Do not like him at all in the 2nd half. His return is a question mark and he may be shutdown come September. He’s on this list because I wanted to say how much I didn’t like him.  “Yo, Point, where you going?” “Home.” “Jump in, I’ll drive you.”
102. Cliff Lee – I didn’t forget him. I just wanted to.
103. Carlos Gomez/Willy Taveras/SAGNOF – If you need steals, you overpay for them. Why? Because it’s now or never.
104. Jonathan Broxton/Damaso Marte/SAGNOF – If you need saves, you… See right above.
105. Whatever Player Gets You The Championship – It’s now or never, people. I cannot stress this enough. Actually, I can and will post about this tomorrow.

Because things are always changing in fantasy baseball, it’s impossible to do a definitive list of the top hundred overall for 2008 or for any year for that matter. Tomorrow, Pujols could announce he’s having his surgery to repair his injured arm and be gone for the season or he could announce that he’s having his arm replaced with an aluminum bat and he moves to number one overall. Nevertheless, here’s my 2008 fantasy baseball top 100 as of right now. (BTW, download Rudy Gamble’s projections for 2008 here.)

1. Alex Rodriguez – Dur. Projections: 120/42/130/15/.305
2. Jose Reyes – Find thirty homers later in the draft. You ain’t finding 70 steals. Projections: 130/14/65/.295/70
3. Matt Holliday – Great hitter + Coors = Fantasy Stud. Projections: 110/40/125/.310/10
4. David Wright – The Mets have a penchant to run. Don’t see Wright slowing down just yet. Projections: 115/34/120/.310/20
5. Hanley Ramirez – I’ve already explained my hesitation for Hanley. Projections: 110/17/85/.295/45
6. Chase Utley – Could he give the Phillies the MVP trifecta this year? I give him 50/50 odds. Projections: 120/32/115/.325/12
7. Johan Santana – I’m not drafting him here, but that’s already been covered. Projections: 21-5/240/2.50/.95
8. Jake Peavy — Weak hitting division, extreme pitching park, ranked #1 as last year’s fantasy player. I’m not drafting him either. (BTW, why are people ranking Peavy so much lower than Santana on their draft cheatsheets? Does everyone really think Santana will win 25 games? He’ll be great, but c’mon. Don’t believe the hype.) Projections: 20-5/230/2.75/1.05
9. Miguel Cabrera – Everything but steals. Projections: 110/37/125/.325/4
10. Prince Fielder – Him and Howard are the only ones with good odds to hit 50. Projections: 115/50/125/.285
11. Ryan Howard – See Fielder, Prince. Projections: 100/50/140/.275
12. Carl Crawford – He’s still young and he can still hit 30 home runs. Projections: 105/25/85/.305/50
13. Grady Sizemore – This is probably my preseason AL MVP. But we’ll get to that. Projections: 120/35/85/.290/30
14. Alfonso Soriano – He’s a Latin 32, but doesn’t seem to be slowing down or losing power. He might have the best preseason shot at 40/40. Projections: 115/35/75/.280/20
15. Jimmy Rollins – He’s not hitting 30 homers again. Projections: 130/22/70/.290/35
16. David Ortiz – Eligibility concerns have me passing on him, but I could understand this pick. Projections: 115/40/120/.310
17. Alexis Rios – This is who I want in every league. I have his projections at 120/32/110/.300/25. Next year he’s a first rounder. Chew on that.
18. Carlos Lee – He’s good every year and he plays. That’s reliability. Projections: 90/35/120/.295/7
19. Vladimir Guerrero – Maybe he can get an aluminum leg from Pujols’s doctor. Projections: 105/32/125/.315/3
20. Mark Teixiera – You can count on certain stats, but that includes sub-par first halfs. Projections: 105/35/115/.300
21. Nick Markakis – I will have him on every team I can. Projections: 100/27/115/.300/20 with the skill set to go way above and beyond these numbers.
22. Ryan Braun – I already told you why not to buy into the hype. Projections: 100/27/105/.280/12
23. B.J. Upton – I don’t see a huge step forward from last year. But 30/30 would still be sweet. Could easily be a 1st round guy next year. Projections: 100/30/85/.280/27
24. Albert Pujols – A high-grade tear in his elbow? A team with nothing to play for. He might not see July. Projections: 55/22/70/.330/2 and he hangs them up by July 4th.
25. Ichiro Suzuki – He’ll be batting .330 in September and I’ll still be glad I didn’t draft him. You don’t have to turn your average to eleven. Projections: 110/10/65/.330/45
26. Carlos Beltran – Is it me or is this round filled with landmines? Projections: 100/27/110/.270/18
27. Lance Berkman – A lock for 90/35/110/.280.
28. C.C. Sabathia – It’s let’s start a pitching run. Projections: 20-9/210/3.40/1.15
29. Brandon Webb – Easily could be in the top ten at the end of the year. Projections: 19-7/190/3.10/1.20
30. Erik Bedard – I give you permission to now draft a starter, if you really must. Projections: 16-9/230/3.30/1.10
31. Aramis Ramirez – Last year’s numbers aren’t indicative of ’08. Projections: 95/37/120/.305
32. Troy Tulowitzki – The Polish are hard workers. I expect Tulo to make his people proud. Projections: 115/25/80/.280/10
33. Adam Dunn – I love guys that are guaranteed 40 homers. They give you runs, RBIs and home runs. BTW, Dunn’s only 28. Projections: 100/45/110/.265/7
34. Travis Hafner – I’m probably the only ‘pert ranking Pronk this high, but I think this is the year he puts everything together. He’d be higher if he had some eligibility somewhere. Projections: 100/40/110/.300
35. Jonathan Papelbon – This is where you should draft him if you want him. I don’t. But I do think he’ll be spectacular. Projections: 5-0/90/1.10/.75/45 saves
36. Robinson Cano – My third 2nd basemen off the board. Fark you, Phillips. Projections: 100/25/100/.295/3
37. Derrek Lee – As Rudy Gamble is prone to say, fifteen steals easily turns into five when your game isn’t stealing bases. Projections: 110/30/115/.290/5
38. Garrett Atkins – Third base sure be deep. Projections: 85/34/115/.300
39. Curtis Granderson – Too rich for my blood. I’m out of the Granderson pot. Projections: 115/27/85/.280/25
40. Victor Martinez – I’m taking Cralos Ruiz in the 18th round, not V-Mart in the third or fourth. Projections: 75/25/115/.300
41. Derek Jeter – Girls draft Jeter. Don’t be a girl. Projections: 110/15/70/.315/15
42. Miguel Tejada – He tore up the winter leagues and he’s pissed off because he’s pissing clean. Projections: 90/25/100/.290/3
43. Cole Hamels – The first pitcher I could conceivably draft. Here’s what I said in January, “The future has arrived for the Phillies ace. If he stays away from injury, he battles Peavy for the Cy Young. Not sure how early I’m going to draft him, but he’ll be on one of my ’08 teams.” You see that wisdom there. But then Santana came to the NL. So, sue me, Hamels now comes in third in the Cy Young voting. Projections: 20-7/210/3.20/1.10
44. Aaron Harang – The second pitcher I could conceivably draft. Projections: 17-10/220/3.75/1.15
45. Joe Nathan – If Papelbon’s selection didn’t start a closer run, I suppose here’s a good place to look. I won’t be picking a closer until the second tier. Projections: 6-1/80/1.90/1.00/40 saves
46. J.J. Putz – Very solid number one closer for any team, except for one of mine. Projections: 4-2/80/2.00/.90/40 saves
47. Brandon Phillips – I thought about dropping him into the fifties to prove how much I want you to avoid him. Projections: 80/19/75/.240/25 and is benched in July because his slump is “all in his head.”
48. Brian Roberts – Okay, here’s the problem. One year twenty homers, one year 4. Career average of 29 steals, last year 50. In fantasy baseball, inconsistency breeds contempt. Projections: 105/10/55/.290/30
49. Alex Gordon – I love Gordon this year. Projections: 80/25/90/.280/20
50. Bobby Abreu – Everyone loves Granderson. How about you draft someone that is guaranteeing you good numbers? Projections: 120/15/110/.310/20
51. Torii Hunter – Double I is about as consistent as a 25/20 man can get. Projections: 85/25/100/.275/20
52. Corey Hart – Here’s what I said in January, “He ran like a demonfish in the first half (mostly against righties) and kept consistent power and average throughout. As much as I feel weird saying it, I think Mr. Hart is here to stay. His OBP against righties is kinda icky, but you know who else is like that, Double I. That’s right, Corey Hart is the white man Torii Hunter.” So it’s only fitting they’re next to each other in the rankings. Projections: 95/22/75/.280/25
53. Justin Morneau – Don’t think he walks enough to ever come close to another MVP. Projections: 90/32/105/.275
54. Dan Haren – He’s a bit prone to the home run ball and the move to a more hitter’s friendly park doesn’t help, but all this is negated by weaker offenses in the NL. Draft with confidence. Projections: 17-9/210/3.60/1.20
55. Manny Ramirez – I’m not high on Manny, but come on, he’s still kind of a hitting savant. Projections: 85/32/105/.315
56. Ian Kinsler – I kinda wanna have Kinsler’s babies. Projections: 110/25/70/.270/25
57. Eric Byrnes – Take Shane Victorino thirty spots later. You’re welcome. Projections: 90/20/75/.270/20
58. Chone Figgins – I already explained I don’t draft steals after Reyes. Projections: 105/5/60/.290/45
59. Magglio Ordonez – Here’s what I wrote in January, “Saw something the other day about Mags. It said he won his 1st batting title in ’07. Thought it was weird it said “1st” as if he’s going to win a second.” Projections: 100/30/110/.300
60. Russell Martin – I had to list another catcher eventually, though you should be warned. He’s not going to steal 20 bases this year. Can’t you just draft Carlos Ruiz fifteen rounds later and grab Michael Bourn to get you some steals? Geez, and I thought I was difficult. Projections: 85/20/90/.290/15
61. Francisco Rodriguez – I won’t draft a closer this high, but I will say if I were, I would not be drafting K-Rod. He’s the only top tier closer that worries me. Projections: 6-2/90/3.00/1.25/45 saves
62. Mariano Rivera – I’d rather you started a website razzballsucks.com then draft Rivera, but you do what you do. Projections: 5-2/70/2.75/1.10/40 saves
63. Adrian Gonzalez – I can’t fathom anyone hitting 40 homers in Petco, but he might get to 35. Projections: 90/33/105/.280
64. Paul Konerko – My man Paulie is dropping off draftsheets. Did he screw someone’s Moms and I didn’t hear about it? Projections: 90/35/110/.275
65. Hunter Pence – You’re drunk if you think I’m drafting him, but, ya know, he’s gotta fit in somewhere. Projections: 95/22/75/.290/17
66. Chipper Jones – Yes, he’ll only play in 120 games, but you can make moves in your league to fill in people, right? Projections: 85/25/85/.315/5
67. John Lackey – It’s not that I don’t like him because I think he’s probably going to be my preseason AL Cy Young pick, but I just don’t like AL starters. Projections: 20-5/180/3.00/1.20
68. Justin Verlander – Might be the only American League starter I’ll consider drafting. Projections: 19-7/200/3.75/1.20
69. Rafael Furcal – I would actually consider taking Raffy because his last year made him a bit of a bargain this year. Projections: 110/15/65/.285/35
70. Gary Sheffield – You need some ‘tude on your team. Projections: 90/25/80/15/.285
71. Carlos Pena – I’m predicting he’ll make fantasy owners miserable this year. Projections: 85/22/80/.260 and he falls into a platoon.
72. Josh Beckett – I was down on this schmohawk before the tender back. Now? Not with a ten foot pole. Projections: 18-9/190/3.90/1.20
73. Edwin Encarncion – I’m wild about Edwin even if he’s a total jerkoff. Projections: 75/25/85/.275/15
74. Delmon Young – I stay away from 2nd year players when possible. Delmon’s one guy I’m considering. Projections: 70/20/100/.285/15
75. John Smoltz – He seems like he’s almost as nice a guy as Vernon Wells, right? (BTW, if you need me to tell you about Smoltz, you’ve been in an Afghani cave for too long.) Projections: 16-7/160/3.75/1.22
76. Carlos Guillen – I think he might be the biggest overpriced piece of garbage since Morneau last year. Projections: 95/15/75/.300/8
77. Ryan Zimmerman – And here’s where I pass. Wrist surgery and people are drafting him like it means nothing. Projections: 90/18/90/.275/5
78. Hideki Matsui – Godzilla loves porn and I don’t mind him. So there’s that. Projections: 105/25/100/.295
79. Roy Oswalt – Ks are trending the wrong way, but he’s still very reliable. Take a middle reliever to offset the Ks. Projections: 15-7/150/3.60/1.22
80. Todd Helton – He’s getting to the point where he’s undervalued. Let’s be realistic for a second. He’s not getting you 40 homers anymore, but what he does give you is not dreadful. Projections: 90/15/90/.315
81. Chris “No B” Young – A tall pitcher with back issues concerns me, but I’d take his 22 starts over some guys 32. Projections: 15-5/160/3.00/1.10 and he only pitches in a 150 innings.
82. Carlos Zambrano – In my opinion, any guy that does what he did to Barrett you have to like. Projections: 18-7/210/3.60/1.30
83. John Maine – I love Maine this year. And not just for their lobster – oofa! I will have Maine on at least one team. You should too. Projections: 18-9/210/3.60/1.20
84. Rickie Weeks – This question still lingers, if Clint Barmes, Rocco Baldelli and Rickie Weeks board your cross-country flight, do you get off? Projections: 85/15/50/.260/22
85. Jeff Kent – At some point he’s going to get old, I think it’s coming soon. Act accordingly. Projections: 80/22/90/.300
86. Mike Lowell – His luck with runners on last year was a collision of good fortune and stoopid good fortune. Projections: 75/20/105/.280/3
87. Shane Victorino – I love Victorino. If I were a 300 lb. Hawaiian woman, Victorino and I would be living off the coast of Oahu. Projections: 115/15/60/.280/40
88. Vernon Wells – O, Vernon. Don’t suck this year. Projections: 90/30/90/.280/7
89. Jeff Francoeur – Do you think if Frenchy were popular in 2001 he would have went by Freedom? Projections: 85/25/110/.280/5
90. Chris B. Young – Krispie will frustrate for extended periods of time with swings and misses. Projections: 90/25/70/.245/32
91. Jhonny Peralta – The only thing I don’t like about Peralta this year is the spelling of his first name. He’s a big buh-Buy. Projections: 85/32/105/.270/3
92. Brian McCann – He’s the last catcher of the top one hundred (eff Mauer) so this will be the last time I tell you to draft Carlos Ruiz in the 18th round. Projections: 75/25/105/.285
93. Andruw Jones – Ok, I’m aware he reported to camp looking like Umaga. But he can’t be over the hill yet, can he? Projections: 85/32/110/.250
94. Mike Jacobs – The Marlins will give the Nats a run for most unwatchable team, though I do like Jacobs’s upside. Projections: 70/30/95/.285
95. Jim Thome – You can set your watch to his stats. Projections: 70/30/90/.265
96. Ryan Garko – Garko’s getting overlooked in the drafts I’ve seen. Watch him jump up to the fourth round next year. Projections: 75/27/90/.285
97. Josh Hamilton – Hamilton gets high on life! Projections: 70/27/80/.300/5
98. Brad Hawpe – Here’s what I said in January, “Hawpe will be sensational this year and not hit lefties. He sported a .418 OBP last year against righties. Grab Spilborghs for next to nothing and platoon them yourself, cause Spilborghs had a .426 OBP against lefties. Hawpe/Spilborghs combo projections: 105/35/110/.300/5.” I stand by that.
99. Nick Swisher – He’s pretty. Projections: 95/30/100/.275
100. James Shields – His year end numbers will blow away Kazmir’s. Projections: 14-6/185/3.75/1.10
101. Rich Hill – No top hundred list is complete without a 101st pick. Projections: 18-7/200/3.60/1.15
102. Kelly Johnson – Ok, last one, but only because I hate the way people are passing by Kelly Johnson. Look at these projections: 85/17/65/.275/12, there’s a fifty percent chance those will be better than Rickie Weeks. (BTW, as for the Weeks question above, I get off the plane. You?)

That title make you tongue-tied? Well that’s nothing compared to how tongue-tied most fantasy players get about middle infielders. No positions have fewer bargains in the draft. This post is to make sure you don’t pay scalper rates.

Below is a comparison of middle infielder value comparing Average Draft Position (ADP) on MockDraftCentral.com vs our Point Share rank (+ means # of picks above estimated value, – means picked lower).

(For the full Point Shares rank and explanation, see here. This is based on PECOTA and Shandler projections.)

I’ve created three buckets – Fair Value, Undervalued, and Overvalued – with the cutoff on each side at 15 spots in the ranking (a player is ‘overvalued’ only if his ADP is 15 picks earlier that his Point Shares estimate is his value).

(MockDraftCentral ADP, Point Share Rank, +/-)

Fair Value (within +/- 15 in rank)
Hanley Ramirez (2, 7, +5)
Jose Reyes (4, 14, +10)
Jimmy Rollins (6, 12, +6)
Chase Utley (8, 9, +1)
Brian Roberts (33, 46, +13)
Carlos Guillen (49, 58, +9)
Robinson Cano (64, 74, +10)
Dan Uggla (103, 116, +13)
Placido Polanco (169, 178, +9)
Orlando Hudson (182, 168, -14)

Undervalued
Kelly Johnson (165, 129, -36)
Dustin Pedroia (176, 130, -46)
Khalil Greene (191, 166, -25)
Aaron Hill (192, 153, -39)
Ty Wigginton (214, 151, -63)
Felipe Lopez (219, 174, -45)
Freddy Sanchez (236, 140, -96)
Mark Ellis (264, 189, -75)
Luis Castillo (280, 227, -53)
Asdrubal Cabrera (303,194, -109)

Overvalued
Brandon Phillips (19, 42, +23)
BJ Upton (22, 80, +58)
Derek Jeter (35, 103, +68)
Troy Tulowitzki (45, 68 +23)
Chone Figgins (53, 83 +30)
Ian Kinsler (68, 107, +39)
Miguel Tejada (71, 117 +46)
Rafael Furcal (76, 108, +32)
Michael Young (80, 115, +35)
Edgar Renteria (99, 241, +142)
Rickie Weeks (106, 149, +43)
Howie Kendrick (118, 188, +70)
Orlando Cabrera (123, 211, +88)
JJ Hardy (128, 217, +89)
Jeff Kent (137, 193, +56)
Jhonny Peralta (173, 201, +28)
Kaz Matsui (193, 325, +132)
Stephen Drew (213, 235, +22)

After the first top four middle infielders, all but 4 of the next 14 are overvalued. I think this is because middle infielders are drafted based on upside more than any other position. Or, in other words, they are drafted at picks where they would provide fair value only if they hit their best case on stats vs. their likely case.

Drafting on 30/30, More Likely 20/20: Brandon Phillips, BJ Upton
Drafting to Improve vs. Last Year, More Likely to Repeat at Best: Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Kinsler
Drafting For Big Bounceback, More Likely to Repeat/Slightly Improve: Miguel Tejada, Rafael Furcal
Drafting On Hope, More Likely To Underperform vs. Expectation: Rickie Weeks, Howie Kendrick
Drafting on Yesteryear, More Likely to Produce a Lesser Tomorrow: Derek Jeter, Edgar Renteria, Orlando Cabrera, Jeff Kent

Now I’m not going to invest time in the majority of these cases as at least there is a chance they might produce fair value. Here are three that I think will definitely not produce fair value based on their current ADP:

Derek Jeter – I’m a Yankee fan. Great player both on the field and in the NYC bars. But he’s hit 20+ HR once in the last 5 years. He’s stolen 25+ SB once in the 5 years. He’s hit 80+ RBI once in the last 5 years. Yes, he delivers runs and AVG but the former stat declined from 122 to 102 over the past 3 years and batting average is a slave to regression (good article on it here). Here are the projections I have for him this year: 93/10/66/13/.303. I think he has upside in all those categories but drafting him at #35 means you’ve got him at something much closer to 2005’s 122/19/70/34/.343. Chances he’ll hit that – I’ll say 5%. If you really want a Yankee MI, wait until the 6th or 7th round and take Cano – much better value.

Edgar Renteria – Renteria is an AWFUL middle round pick. He’s ‘Latin’ 32 this year (more likely 34), returning to the league that overmatched him in 2005, and is a prime candidate to see 40 points fall off his batting average (that .332 was a fluke due to a high increase in BABIP). Has hit 15+ HR only once in his career (2000) and hasn’t stolen more than 17 bases since 2003. Prediction: Fails to hit 12 HR or steal 12 SB. Will be on the waiver wire in many 5×5 10 team leagues by mid-season. I’d rather have DP mate Polanco and he’s going 7 rounds later.

Orlando Cabrera – Vlad’s little buddy won’t be seeing as many fastballs and runs now that he doesn’t have the Impaler behind him. Wow that sounded gay. But what’s more distasteful is taking this guy anytime before, say, the 18th round. What’s to like? He hasn’t hit more than 10 HR since 2003. Has stolen 20+ SB the last three years but he’s 33 this year – can’t count on much more than 15 SB. His .301 last year was a fluke – his average the previous two years was .257 and .282. I suppose he’s picked higher based on familiarity but, in this case, familiarity should breed contempt. Another guy likely to find the waiver wire at some point this season in mixed leagues.

So here is my simple MI drafting strategy for you…don’t reach! There are a few guys in the first 7 rounds that you can get at close to fair value. After that, just draft other positions until the 13th round or so and start picking up some of the Undervalued guys (or if an Overvalued guy tumbles). There is enough depth out there that you could pick up guys in the 20th round (Sanchez, Ellis, Wigginton) who’ll likely outperform several of the MIs taken in the middle rounds.