Fantasy Baseball Advice

The top 10 and top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball are in the bag, along with the top 20 catchers and your receipt for a $30 massage valued at $50.  Thanks, Groupon!  Today, Razzhands, we look at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.  All this shizz can be found under the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  Don’t believe me?  Click the link.  This top 20 list of 1st basemen is bursting at the seams like you at a Hometown Buffet.  Speaking of gorging yourself, I’d like a top 1st baseman on my team in 2012, but it’s a little different year than last year.  There’s actually only 5 top first basemen then caveats on number 6 (Te(i)x) through 9, then there’s some interesting flyers a bit later.  I have a feeling 2013′s rankings are going to see major shifts with some guys that are lower on this ranking sheet moving up.  Should be a fun year for first basemen and one where you can take a bit more risk than previous years.  This list will get additional 1st basemen added to it in the way of sleeper posts.  As with the other rankings, the first basemen are broken up into tiers with my projections included.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Miguel Cabrera – See top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Miguel Cabrera’s projections.

2. Albert Pujols – See top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Albert Pujols’s projections.

3. Joey Votto – See top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Joey Votto’s projections.

4. Adrian Gonzalez – See top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Adrian Gonzalez’s projections.

5. Prince Fielder – See top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Prince Fielder’s projections.

6. Mark Teixeira – See top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Mark Teixeira’s projections.  This is actually a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Michael Young.  I call this tier, “Caterpillars.  Tier name will be explained in the Young blurb.  Feel free to read Young’s blurb then return here.  Hey, back already?!  Awesome!  I missed you.  Do you enjoy cuddling?”

7. Paul Konerko – He’s been wildly consistent.  In 2008 when he hit only 22 homers, it looks like the anomaly.  If I were to say 2012 is the year he gets old and it all falls apart, I’d just be guessing.  Last year he hit hardly any doubles, more line drives and singles, but he’s also getting smarter cutting his K-rate and increasing his walk rate.  The biggest hurdle Konerko is going to have this year is keeping his will to play as the team folds on Opening Day.  Maybe Hawk can work in some of his positivism in the negativity.  “This is the fastest a team has ever been out of contention!  You can put it on the board… We gone!”  2012 Projections:  85/29/100/.290

8. Lance Berkman – Let’s see if you can pick out the number that doesn’t belong, these are his homer totals from 2009 to 2011 — 25, 14, 31.  If you said 14, you’re a believer.  Feel free to draft Berkman.  If you said 31, you’re in my camp.  We will not be drafting Berkman.  If you said 27, that wasn’t a choice.  Berkman didn’t necessarily have an odd year for homers per fly balls.  He made solid contact, reducing his ground balls, but he’s 36 years old and missing Pujols.  That’s enough for me to avoid.  2012 Projections:  80/24/95/.275/3

9. Michael Young – This tier is filled with some older shorties, huh?  Go, shorty, it’s your 35th birthday; we gonna party like it’s your 35th birthday!  As I kinda said in the opening paragraph, the 1st basemen in 2012 are about to go caterpillar up in here and morph into a butterfly, but with that butterfly emerging from its cocoon Don Ameche-style, it needs to shed its caterpillar skin (can you tell I did well in my college science courses?).  This tier is gonna leave behind some caterpillar skin that will be released into the garden and turn into a new plant and/or Eric Hosmer.  (Again, not a science major.)  To explain all of this without the confusing metaphor, guys in this tier are getting old and will make way for guys in the next tier for next year.  As for Young, I don’t like him because he only gives average, and, while that’s been consistently solid in his career, he still got lucky last year and he’s due to hit a lot closer to .300 than .340.  Projections:  75/15/90/.310/5

10. Carlos Santana – Here comes the fun!  Can you feel the excitement?  It’s like that time we got together and did the crab circle dance in the pool in Cabo San Lucas and all our roommates were there except Zach and Ashley — but who needs them anyway?!  This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Butler.  I call this tier, “The crab circle in Cabo San Lucas.”  Is that too specific a reference?  You guys and three girl readers get it.  See the top 20 catchers for 2012 fantasy baseball to see Carlos Santana’s projections.

11. Eric Hosmer – I’m ignoring sophomore jinxes like I ignored when my whole sophomore class saw me get depantsed and I had on dirty tightie-whities.  I continue to stress that they were once all brown underwear that got bleached.  Hosmer is going to be special, and even if it’s not this year, he’s going to hold trade value through the season unless his bottom really falls out, which I don’t envision happening.  His commitment to stealing around ten bases will keep him from totally flopping.  He will be Joey Votto-lite this year.  How lite is the only question.  I don’t think it’ll be that lite.  BTW, you know who’s Billy Butler-lite?  Kirstie Alley.  2012 Projections:  85/25/95/.280/10

12. Michael Morse – I think Morse just had his best season, but I also don’t think he’s gonna fall like, say, Ryan Ludwick of a few years ago, to mention a player that was old for a prospect, broke out then went back to obscurity.  Speaking of which, when you get robbed in a parking garage and the security guard tells the police they didn’t hear anything, you tell them they’re more like obscurity!  Store it away for when it’s applicable.  Morse had the trappings* of a breakout but his health always got in the way.  I’m excited to watch the Nats this year and Morse should be smack dab in the middle of it.  *I have no idea if I used trappings right but it sounded pretty cool the way I just threw it out there, right?  2012 Projections:  80/27/90/.275/3

13. Michael Cuddyer – Gets away from Hubert H. Homerfree Dome and goes to Coors.  Boom goes the dynamite!  Or does it?  Cuddyer just had a solid season, and terrific when compared to the team around him.  Jack Wilson would’ve looked good in that Minnesota mucky muck last year.  Cuddyer hits a ton of ground balls and he’s not a huge homer threat.  I’d say if he repeats his 2011, it’s a win for him and his fantasy owners, especially since he has 2nd base eligibility in some leagues (17 games).  Check your rules first before you draft him for 2nd, then think about how you’re checking rules for fantasy baseball.  And you wonder why you have no success with the ladies.  2012 Projections:  75/22/85/.275/5

14. Mark Reynolds – His K-rate is kinda comical.  He’s a terrible real baseball player.  But real baseball is for real athletes.  What kind of crap is that?!  Give me a computer, an ergonomic chair and some Doritos, I’m playing fantasy baseball!  As long as Mini Donkey continues to hit 35 homers and steal 7-10 bases, he has solid fantasy value, just don’t draft Krispie Young, Adam Dunn or any other low average guys with him.  Actually, don’t draft Adam Dunn at all.  2012 Projections:  75/35/90/.230/7

15. Adam Lind – The reason why I still go back to Lind no matter how many times he kicks my metaphorical puppy is because he’s capable of 35+ homers.  Also, he got a bad rap in 2010 for being a guy that comes with a poor average, but he’s not that, y’all!  He’s around a .260 guy with neutral luck.  That’s a’ight, and a’ight is better than just a’ight but not quite a’ight a’ight.  Want a silly prediction that has no basis in science or fact?  Lind’s gonna be a top three finisher in 2012 for MVP.  2012 Projections:  90/32/105/.270 (<–crazy optimistic, but whatevs)

15 1/2. Billy Butler – I gave Butler a half ranking because he only has 11 games at 1st base.  In Yahoo leagues, you can place The Moob Man at 1st.  I’d use two hands so one moob doesn’t feel neglected.  Yes, Butler’s in the exciting tier, but I worry that Butler will only get 17 or less homers with a bad case of blimpotence.  But II, The Return of But, at 26 years old I think we can trust he’ll hover closer to 20 ding dongs.  Butler, “Did someone say ding dongs?!”  2012 Projections:  90/20/100/.300

16. Ryan Howard – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the list.  I call this tier, “Some major question marks, but a chance for nice dividends.”  Howard will move in the rankings at some point in the preseason when we know exactly when he’s gonna return.  If he’s back by the end of April, he hits 25-30 homers and is worth stashing.  If he’s not due back until midseason, I wouldn’t even bother drafting him and would drop him off this list completely.  I don’t believe in DL’ing players for months in redraft leagues.  For example, think about how many years you drafted Brandon Webb waiting for him to return from injury.  Yeah, that worked out well.  2012 Projections:  70/28/100/.260 (returning on May 1st)

17. Mike Napoli – See the top 20 catchers for 2012 fantasy baseball to see Mike Napoli’s projections.

18. Ike Davis – Last year, Ike took so many hits on the DL; somewhere Tina Turner was smiling.  Davis says his ankle will be good to go for Spring Training.  I say, just keep him away from the Mets doctors.  From this tier, I’d say Davis has the biggest chance to shoot up the rankings for next year.  Or he could have one setback and miss another three months.  2012 Projections:  85/22/90/.280

19. Mark Trumbo – When I went over Albert Pujols’s signing, I also covered Trumbo’s question mark.  As long as Abreu, Double I and Kendrys are shooting the shizz and talking about the good old times, Trumbo’s either playing 3rd or in trouble of losing playing time.  3rd base would be great, but his defense might give Scioscia the gas face.  I really can’t see someone who gave Jeff Mathis 1360 plate appearances in 5 years playing Trumbo at third.  That’s a huge question mark.  If Trumbo can get 500 plate appearances, then I’d happily draft him. Remember a platoon player at catcher is doable for fantasy, but at 1st or even at corner you need stats.  Projections:  60/25/75/.260/7 (500 PAs)

20. Paul Goldschmidt – I already went over my Paul Goldschmidt fantasy.  I wrote it while rooting for Garfield from Parking Wars to boot a car.  2012 Projections:  75/27/85/.245/7

After the top 20 1st basemen, there’s a lot of names but these stand out:

Kendrys Morales – Might not be a bigger question mark on this entire list.  Ryan Howard could be out for a while, but if he returns, you should get decent production.  Kendrys might return and still be crizzap.  Or he might return and platoon with Abreu or Trumbo or Wells.  Or he might return and be valuable.  You got more variables than an episode of Mythbusters.  Boom!  I’m bigger on basic cable than Chumlee!  2012 Projections:  65/22/75/.290

Justin Morneau – This is one question mark that I’m not drafting anywhere.  This schmohawk can come to my house and make me a perfectly medium-rare steak with the most amazing compound butter and I won’t go near him because, after last year, his steak will probably give me an immediate heart attack.  2012 Projections:  60/17/75/.285

Gaby Sanchez – He (she?) can give you modest power and solid counting stats.  Plus, you can pretend you have a girl on your team.  You ask why he’s not ranked and I answer that he is.  He’s ranked just after Morneau.  Him and Morneau are a bit of a toss-up, but Morneau has an outside chance at bigger power numbers.  Gaby has a better chance of actually playing a full season.  2012 Projections:  65/20/85/.265/3

Freddie Freeman – I don’t look forward to drafting Freeman.  So much so, I won’t draft him.  So much so much so, I didn’t even rank him.  He’s not ranked.  He’s just blurbed here.  He’s too much James Loney for my taste.  He has a slightly off year on power and you’re gonna be lucky to get 17 homers.  Belch called and said burp.  2012 Projections:  60/19/75/.280/3

Yonder Alonso – I took all the prospect reports on Alonso and put through my supercomputer and out came, “Should develop into a 20+ homer hitter with a great eye.  Padres TV can save time by eliminating instant replay because he runs like he’s in slow mo.”  I liked Yonder a lot more when he was on the Reds with no starting job than on the Padres with a starting job.  It’s just so hard to get excited about a hitter’s upside in Petco.  2012 Projections:  55/16/70/.280

Justin Smoak – I’m letting someone else take the Smoak gamble this year.  Until he hits 25+ homers, I don’t want to mess with his .240-ish average.  Call me crazy.  You, “Crazy.”  2012 Projections:  55/18/65/.245

Carlos Pena – Looking for someone this year that can do what Adam Dunn did last year?  Look no further!  He signed with the Rays, but it doesn’t matter.  He is what he is everywhere he plays.  I will now slap myself hard across the face for saying a variation of “it is what it is.”  2012 Projections:  55/25/75/.210

Adam Dunn – Everyone seems to think Dunn is not, um, done.  Correction:  Everyone that did not own him last year.  I guess they want a piece of the frustration that others felt last year.  That’s like standing at the craps table and watching roll after roll where people lose and you’re like, “Now is the time to get in!”  No, it’s not.  There’s no reason why the table is going to turn for the better.  The big-bellied age quickly and poorly.  Don’t go near Dunn just because you lucked out not owning him last year.  And, if you did own him last year and want more, then you’re like Homer grabbing the donut no matter how many times the electrical current shocks him.  2012 Projections:  55/22/80/.220 (<–actually optimistic)

Anthony Rizzo – Because I couldn’t end the post on a sour note with Adam Dunn, here’s R to the izzo.  I already went over my Anthony Rizzo 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it while huffing.  It was also written before the trade to the Cubs, so the end about how I wanna take a chainsaw to Petco is irrelevant.  I don’t think we’ll see Rizzo until June at the earliest so in redraft leagues, I’d ignore him, but in keeper leagues I’d stash him.  He could hit 25 homers as soon as next year.  If he breaks camp with the Cubs, then it’s on like Steve Wiebe playing Donkey Kong.  2012 Projections:  30/10/45/.250/4 (in 300 ABs)

Brandon Belt – Okay, one more!  This is it though.  If Belt were guaranteed everyday playing time, I’d place him between Napoli and Davis.  Around 16 and a half.  Belt is capable of 25/10/.280, which would have him poised to be a top 5 1st baseman next year.  The problem is Bruce Bochy has a gigantic head, but a very small brain.  Hopefully he realizes Belt ties the entire Giants outfit together.  2012 Projections:  70/24/80/.280/10 (in 500 ABs)

After drudging through an Andy Dufresne-type tunnel for the top 20 catchers for 2011, I find myself with a group that actually really hurt or helped your team depending on how you drafted. If you went wrong with your 1st baseman, it could kill your season.  Hey, Justin Morneau, no hard feelings from me.  We are totally fine.  Please enjoy these cyanide pills I made special for you.  If you went right, you might’ve won your league. To recap, this final ranking is from ESPN Player Rater with my comments. The Player Rater allows me to be impartial while looking at how I ranked them in the preseason. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:

1. Miguel Cabrera – Member when people were moving away from Swiggy Cabrera in the preseason and I said stop paying attention to preseason nonsense?  You need to turn down the treble and remove the noise.  I’m not sure if people run with these nonsense stories to sell pageviews or they really believe the tripe their slinging.  Either way, it made no difference.  Miguel’s breathalyzer never dips below .320, but his power was a bit down.  But II, The Return of But, he still gave you all that and a bag of breath mints for the long ride home.  Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections:  110/37/120/.320/5, Final Numbers:  111/30/105/.344/2

2. Adrian Gonzalez – Sure, I ranked him 5th for all 1st basemen in the preseason, but he was also ranked 10th overall with five first basemen in my preseason top 10.  People said I was crazy to stack my top 10 with 1st basemen and power hitters.  People said you can get 1st basemen later.  Grab Youkilis, people said.  Or Aubrey Huff.  Or Morneau.  Oh, wait, I was one of those people that said to grab Morneau.  Oh, well.  They ain’t all gems.  Hopefully that’s my last comment about Morneau for at least three blurbs.  Okay, one more Morneau comment.  In the preseason, I said, “Morneau’s more valuable than Youuuuuk if he can stay healthy, but put Morneau staying healthy in one hand and a fortune cookie that says, “Morneau never stays healthy” in the other hand and what do you have?  Exactly!”  And that’s me foreseeing crap and not even getting out of the way when Morneau started flinging it!  Preseason Rank #5, 2011 Projections:  100/37/110/.280, Final Numbers:  108/27/117/.338/1

3. Albert Pujols – I’m beginning to think that he could miss five of six months and still get 100/35/100/.300.  On a side note, he should open a bar in West Hollywood named Pujols.  It would give The Manhole a run for its money.  Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections:  105/37/115/.315/10, Final Numbers:  105/37/99/.299/9

4. Joey Votto – Another reason to take a first baseman very early in a draft.  How many of them flopped from my first 20 overall picks?  None.  There were shortstops that flopped.  Outfielders that flopped.  No 1st basemen.  Sure, Ryan Howard didn’t hit for a great average, but he still got 110+ RBIs and 30+ homers.  Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections:  95/32/110/.310/10, Final Numbers:  101/29/103/.309/8

5. Prince Fielder – Just another huge year on an odd-numbered year.  Making us saberhagenmetricians look smart.  Preseason Rank #4, 2011 Projections:  100/38/115/.280, Final Numbers: 95/38/115/.299/1

6. Michael Young – Another guy that had a ton of noise around him in the preseason.  “Ooh, Grey, your mustache is full and beautiful but don’t you think Young will be hurt by all of this trade talk.”  That’s you.  Me, “Stop listening to all this superfluous stuff.”  Only I didn’t say stuff.  I said shizz.  Preseason Rank #8 for 3rd basemen, 2011 Projections:  85/17/80/.280/5, Final Numbers:  88/11/106/.338/6

7. Lance Berkman – Said in the preseason that maybe Lance Berkman can give you a 2010 Konerko-type year (a big bounce back for a vet), but I really didn’t believe Berkman could do it.  Then for almost two months I continued to tell you he’d stop doing it or get injured while he was actually doing it.  Yeah, Berkman and I had our differences this year.  I don’t believe in Berkman for next year either, if you were wondering how obstinate I can be.  Preseason Rank #17, 2011 Projections:  65/20/75/.270/5, Final Numbers:  90/31/94/.301/2

8. Paul Konerko – For Konerko, I’m sick of predicting the end when the end just keeps running into the here and now.  That is not a line from Air Supply, but could be.  Preseason Rank #15, 2011 Projections:  70/24/85/.265, Final Numbers:  69/31/105/.300/1

9. Michael Morse – First totally out of nowhere name, which means if you decided to punt 1st base early in your draft, you had to get Morse or you were screwed.  BTW, his photo makes him look like the biggest doofus.  And, really, I don’t use the word doofus too much, except when it’s totally applicable like right now.  Looks like he should be saying, “Which way did he go, George; which way did he go?”  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  73/31/95/.303/2

10. Mark Teixeira – The average has really dipped recently (.256 in 2009), which I no longer think is an aberration, but three times in a row is a better pattern.  The rule of three yadda³.  As long as he’s on the Yanks and hitting in The House They Built In The Parking Lot Next To The House That Ruth Built, it’s gonna be hard to fault all the other stats.  Preseason Rank #6, 2011 Projections:  105/35/115/.280, Final Numbers:  90/39/111/.248/4

11. Mike Napoli – Went over Napoli in the top 20 catchers for 2011 fantasy baseball post.

12. Ryan Howard – I don’t buy that he was actually this low in value.  Again, this is somewhere the ESPN Player Rater and I don’t see eye to eye.  They overrate average and steals.  As for everyone who agrees that Ryan Howard wasn’t good this year and I’m crazy, I like to point you to a picture of my long-lost son.  Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections:  85/38/100/.265, Final Numbers:  81/33/116/.253/1

13. Eric Hosmer – Not bad for two-thirds of a season.  Not to scream fire in the theater of Razzball, but he kinda looks like the 2nd coming of Votto.  No, I don’t use those words lightly.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  66/19/78/.293/11

14. Howie Kendrick – Kendrick is such a cusp player.  I’ll explain.  If he gets 5 less homers or steals, he loses so much of his value.  It tends to be the case with guys who get a lot of value from average.  See Michael Young as another example.  Preseason Rank #14 for 2nd basemen, 2011 Projections:  65/12/85/.305/15, Final Numbers:  86/18/63/.285/14

15. Billy Butler – His season was decent, about what I’d expect (as you see from my preseason projections), but I’m not exactly altering my copy of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo to a picture book with Butler titled, The Man with the Luscious Cans, because his cans were only saved by a 2nd half that was big like his badonkadonk.  Preseason Rank #13, 2011 Projections:  80/20/90/.310, Final Numbers:  74/19/95/.291/2

16. Michael Cuddyer – His real value came when he gained 2nd base eligibility.  Also, I do these top 20 listings in the order you read them, so I’ve only done the catchers and 1st basemen thus far.  I tell you this because I was just thinking that I bet Cuddyer is the only Twins hitter or pitcher to rank anywhere in these end of the season lists.  What a shizzshow in Minny.  At the end of the year, they should have a Worst Series, where the two worst teams square off in a best of seven.  Like you wouldn’t watch the Astros take on the Twins.  Preseason Rank #51 for outfielders, 2011 Projections:  85/20/80/.275/5, Final Numbers:  70/20/70/.284/11

17. Mark Trumbo – It’s a little weird how much I ignore average.  I looked at Trumbo and Hosmer’s season and really had no idea how Trumbo was below him in ranking.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  65/29/87/.254/9

18. Freddie Freeman – Having a hard time figuring out how his season was worse than Mr. Grapefruit, Billy Butler.  Feel free to share if you figure it out.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  67/21/76/.282/4

19. Carlos Lee – The one nice thing I can say about Carlos Lee is you didn’t expect anything and he didn’t disappoint.  Preseason Rank #18, 2011 Projections:  65/24/75/.260/3, Final Numbers:  66/18/94/.275/4

20. Mark Reynolds – After Bautista, Mini Donkey caused probably the biggest uproar in the preseason due to my ranking.  I ranked him 6th overall for 3rd basemen and he finished the year 8th overall.  Out of all the preseason projections for 3rd basemen (which will be up in a few days), Reynolds ended up coming in closest to where I thought he would.  Terrible average, good power and some light speed.  So far I’ve been more right about Reynolds than any other player through the course of his career.  It’s like I’m wearing Birkenstocks, loose-fitting sweats, doing Downward Facing Donkey pose and looking right through Reynolds’ third chakra.  Or something.  Preseason Rank #6 for 3rd basemen, 2011 Projections:  80/35/95/.235/12, Final Numbers:  84/37/86/.221/6

Jhoulys Chacin was walking more yesterday than my grandfather on a treadmill behind a hot number (his words).  Yo-leash’s line 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners (6 walks), 7 Ks.  Am I worried that Chacin isn’t going to have a sub-3 ERA all year?  Yeah, of course, I’m worried.  What, am I delusional?  Am I wearing wearing a pirate costume and dictating my blog posts to homeless people behind a Consumer Value Store?  No, of course, I’m not.  I’m behind a Walgreens.  I do not wish to talk about Chacin’s eventual regression.  Yes, I am not using contractions to show how serious I am.  I own Yo-leash all over the place and…Ugh.  We might be at his peak value.  This is sorta like when I told you to sell Matt Joyce a week before he started washing his hands in the urinal and peeing in the sink.  I don’t think Chacin will completely collapse but he’s more of a 3.50-3.75 ERA pitcher.  Trust me, I wish he were going to be this good all year too.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Seth Smith – 3-for-4, 3 RBIs as The Lisper’s Nightmare hit his 7th and 8th home runs.  He’s fine for a fifth outfielder in a deep league, but, man, owning him is the fantasy baseball equivalent to watching paint dry.  Rub Wiggy’s head and get crazy hot for a week once in a while, would ya?

Madison Bumgarner – 1/3 IP, 8 ER.  Eight scored so fast on this Bum even Ron Jeremy was amazed.

Eli Whiteside – 2-for-3 with his 2nd home run.  In honor of the homer, Katz’s Deli is giving thirty cents off every stuffed derma purchase.

Alexi Casilla – 2-for-5 with his 2nd home run in as many games after hitting one home run in his previous 400+ at-bats.  Give Jose Bautista back his bat!

Chad Billingsley – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Part of me thinks he pitched well so you put him back in your lineup for his next start only to have him crush your hopes again.

Zack Greinke – 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 10 Ks.  Member after his last start I said run out and buy him?  Can you still?  Rhetorical!

Jonathan Lucroy – 3-for-4 after hitting a home run on Monday.  Ebb and flow of the season and it looks like he might be flowing again.

Wily Mo Pena – 1-for-4 with a home run.  Short term power add.  Or in leagues that count Pedro Serrano lookalikes.

Krispie Young – Hit his 15th home run yesterday.  Haven’t talked much about Krispie this year, but he’s having another solid year.  15 homers, 8 steals and, even more encouraging, his average is up to .253.  You’d take that from Krispie and like it.

Mike Moustakas – 0-for-4, average down to .219.  Hosmer went 0-for-4, average down to .276.  They’re rookies, ya’ll.  Sometimes you get lightning, sometimes you get cloudy with a chance of crapballs.

Paul Konerko – 2-for-3 with his fifth homer in five games to bring his season total up to 21.  He blew my expectations for him out of the water about a month ago and now he’s riding a magical dolphin around in the sky and beating up those expectations with its fin.

Carlos Pena – Now has homers in back-to-back games.  Will homer at least three more times in the next week.  You can put it on the boooooooard–Sorry, wrong side of Chicago.

Brett Wallace – 0 for his last 16, hasn’t hit over .300 in two months.  Maybe the Astros can trade him back to the Jays…Or A’s…Or Cards.

Michael Young – 3-for-5 with his 4th home run.  Hey, maybe his power might come around, but I think he’s still gonna top out around 12 homers and his name carries more value.

Brandon League – Gave up a few unearned runs and then was hit by a comebacker and limped out of the game.  David Pauley, which sounds like a made up name, was then called on to close it out.  He didn’t do so well, but he has recently been solid.  Oh, who am I kidding?  This is a mess if League’s not closing games.  You can grab Pauley or Jamey Wright or Jamey Pauley, but only in the deepest of leagues where you really need saves.

Doug Fister – 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 3 Ks.  I think he’s been in Smokey’s weekend 2 start pitcher post like 8 weeks in a row.

Roger Bernadina – 1-for-3 as he got to Fister in the two hole.

Brian Roberts – Won’t be back until after the All-Star Game.  Can backdate that news to 2008.

Cory Luebke – Will join the Padres rotation.  Luebke has a 9+ K-rate in middle relief, but I imagine that’ll come down to around a 7+ in the rotation.  Still totally usable if nowhere else except in Petco.  Wonder Twin powers in the form of…a Hodgepadre!

David Ortiz – 0-for-5 with a steal.  How’d he get a 89 foot lead off of first?

J.J. Hardy – 2-for-5 with his 9th home run.  Not sure if he gave the signal, but he’s unleashing hell, Maximus.

Javier Vazquez – 5 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 10 hits, 4 Ks.  No earned runs, but he’s still fooling no one.  I mean, he’s doing that age-old trick where you pull your thumb apart and five-year-olds are rolling their eyes at him.

Ervin Santana – 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks and pulled after 76 pitches as the Sciosciapath decided to start managing his NL-style-baseball-that-is-usually-kept-at-bay-in-the-AL.  Can imagine what a nightmare he’d be if he managed in the NL.  He’d double switch every inning and run out of pitchers by the 7th.  “NL’s where it’s at, hooooo-mees!”  That’s Scioscia talking through his auto-tune app.

James McDonald – 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 11 baserunners, 3 Ks, now has an ERA of 4.86 and a WHIP of 1.62.  I’ve seen peg boys put together better stretches.

Mike Minor – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks.  After the game, Minor’s bags were sent to the, um, minors.

Jonny Venters – Pitched a random insignficant inning yesterday.  Not for nothing, which is my mom’s favorite expression, the Braves are ruining Venters’s arm.  Every time Venters enters a game, Scott Proctor shudders.

Jason Bay – 3-for-3 with a home run and he just missed a 2nd one.  I don’t think he’s suddenly rediscovered 2009, but he looked locked in yesterday.  Worth a quick flyer to see if he can stay hot for a week or so.

Dillon Gee – 4 IP, 4 ER, 9 baserunners (6 walks), 1 K.  Prior to this start, Gee looked like he was composed almost entirely of phat, but yesterday Gee looked like butter without the ‘er.’  Here’s a proper visual aid.  The preceding sentence was for our one reader in India.  Hey, Bhishma!

The top 10 and 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball are in the bag, along with the top 20 catchers and your receipt for a $30 massage valued at $50.  Thanks, Groupon!  Today, Razzhands, we look at the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.  All this shizz can be found under the 2011 fantasy baseball rankings.  Don’t believe me?  Click the link.  This top 20 list of 1st basemen is the opposite of the catchers, it is bursting at the seams like you at a Hometown Buffet.  Speaking of gorging yourself, I want a top 1st baseman on my team in 2011.  Sure, the list is deep, but 10 of these guys will probably be gone by the 4th round.  Do you really want to go to battle with, say, Lance Berkman when someone else has, say, Ryan Howard?  I don’t.  I want to be one of the teams with a top 1st baseman.  This list will get additional 1st basemen added to it in the way of sleeper posts.  As with the other rankings, the first basemen are broken up into tiers with my projections included.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball:

1. Albert Pujols – See top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball for Albert Pujols’ projections.

2. Miguel Cabrera – See top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball for Miguel Cabrera’s projections.

3. Joey Votto – See top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball for Joey Votto’s projections.

4. Prince Fielder – See top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball for Prince Fielder’s projections.

5. Adrian Gonzalez – See top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball for Adrian Gonzalez’s projections.

6. Mark Teixeira – See top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball for Mark Teixeira’s projections.

7. Ryan Howard – See top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball for Ryan Howard’s projections.

8. Kevin Youkilis – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Dunn.  I call this tier, “Your last chance for a 1st baseman I’d feel safe with.”  Other fantasy baseball ‘perts will say 1st base is one of the deepest positions and you shouldn’t pay for it on draft day.  Now, granted, Youuuuuuk had a fluke injury last year that should be fine in 2011, but do you feel as safe with Youuuuuk as you would with, say, Te(i)x?  I wouldn’t.  Do you feel as safe with Morneau as Fielder?  Do you feel as safe with Dunn as you do with any of the first basemen in the 1st tier?  And this is only one tier down.  Go another tier down.  How do you feel with Howard compared to Butler?  With Fielder compared to Huff?  Sure, some of the guys below may produce, but there’s also lots of pitfalls in there.  As for Youuuuk, as mentioned, he should be fine returning from injury and give you his usual 25+ home runs and good counting stats.  2011 Projections: 95/27/95/.300/5

9. Justin Morneau – Last year, Morneau pulled a Kotchman and missed like a gazillion games.  I wonder if his doctor warned him not to lie in a hammock under a palm tree for fear a coconut would drop on his melon.  Eh, probably not.  But maybe!  Morneau’s more valuable than Youuuuuk if he can stay healthy, but put Morneau staying healthy in one hand and a fortune cookie that says, “Morneau never stays healthy” in the other hand and what do you have?  Exactly!  2011 Projections:  85/25/100/.285

10. Adam Dunn – I have no scientific proof of this, but I think we’re due for a .240 average season from Big Donkey.  I mean, two seasons of .260+ now for him.  He’s playing with the house’s money, ain’t he?  Unless he sold two of his usual forty homers for twenty points on his average.  Then maybe Juan Pierre sold four steals to buy Dunn a hairbrush.  That’s like that O. Henry story.  2011 Projections: 80/40/100/.245

11. Kendry Morales – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Huff.  I call this tier, “You got caveats.  Now go floss.”  Morales has one solid season under his belt then a limp-off home run.  Here’s what I said when he got hurt, “Too bad the Wide World of Sports isn’t still on.  They could’ve covered the agony and the ecstasy all in one full swoop (with Morales’ home run).  This injury reminds me of the time Justin Duchscherer heard The Hokey Pokey and in celebration put his right hip out.  And didn’t put his right hip back in for six to eight months later.”  That doesn’t mean anything as far as fantasy is concerned, but it made me giggle.  I got some gems up in this mug!  You’re welcome.  There’s not much to say about Morales.  If he’s healthy, draft him for 27+ home runs.  If he’s rusty as all get out, then you’re sitting in a public restroom realizing ten minutes too late there’s no toilet paper.  2011 Projections:  80/26/95/.290

11 1/2. Adam Lind – His caveat is his strikeouts skyrocketed last year.  Still, I’m a sucker for Lind.  I wouldn’t be if 30 homers didn’t seem like such a pipe dream for so many players nowadays.  I can’t promise you that he will return to the 35 homer hitter he was in 2009.  It’s far from scientific but what I think happened last year was he was being unlucky so he expanded the strike zone causing the bottom to fall out.  The numbers back up this theory.  His HR/FB% was also off last year.  Another 5 homers on top of his 23 homers last year is easily doable.  With a little luck, you’re looking at a .270, 30 homer guy.  With a lot of luck, you’re looking at even more.  (Note:  He only has 11 games at 1st base that’s why he got a half.  Check the fantasy baseball position eligibility, fool!)  2011 Projections:  80/27/90/.270

12. Carlos Pena – I already went over my Carlos Pena fantasy when he signed with the Cubs.  His caveat is his average.  It could be silent and deadly.  2011 Projections:  70/35/95/.235/3

13. Billy Butler – It’s Mardi Gras and you have one more string of beads.  You see what you believe is a foxy number, but you can only see her from the neck down.  Do you wait to see her face or do you throw your beads on chest size alone?  Those who drafted Butler last year after his 21 homer year in 2009 threw their beads and got flashed with a rack of moobs.  Mr. Grapefruit just doesn’t have huge power potential like his Humpty Dumpty-shaped body would indicate.  2011 Projections:  80/20/90/.310

14. Buster Posey – See top 20 catchers for 2011 fantasy baseball for Buster Posey’s projections.

15. Paul Konerko – Last year, Konerko had his highest HR/FB% since 2005.  He had his highest home run total since 2005.  He had his highest strikeout rate ever.  His lowest walk rate since 2004.  His highest BABIP in his career.  You got damn lucky last year if you owned him.  If you own him again this year, you’re doubling down on an eighteen and the dealer’s showing a picture card.  2011 Projections:  70/24/85/.265

16. Aubrey Huff – I don’t buy his 2010 season at all.  Actually, that’s a lie.  I buy it.  I just don’t think we can trust he’ll do it again in 2011.  Not to mention, a big flashing red arrow is pointing at his alternate seasons of 15 home runs a piece in 2007 and 2009.  If you get an off season from Huff, you’ve just lost your league.  That’s just me being real wit’ you.  You see the truth is everybody wanna know how close me and Huff is.  Or who I’m still cool wit’.  2011 Projections:  70/22/80/.275

17. Lance Berkman – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Derrek Lee.  I call this tier, “Oldies and not so goodies.”  Maybe you draft someone from this tier and you get a 2010 Konerko.  Maybe you get a 2010 Berkman.  I would try not to live too much in the past.  These guys have deteriorating skills. As for Berkman, line drives are down (literally!), ground balls are up (not literally!) and fly balls are down (literally!).  St. Louis isn’t going to help turn around his career slide.  Sorry.  2011 Projections:  65/20/75/.270/5

18. Carlos Lee – Member how I said two seconds ago that one of these guys may be a 2010 Konerko?  If I had to bet, I wouldn’t guess public enemy #1, Chuck Lee.  2011 Projections:  65/24/75/.260/3

19. Mike Napoli – Not really old so sue the tier name for false advertising.  See top 20 catchers for 2011 fantasy baseball for Mike Napoli’s projections.

20. Adam LaRoche – The people who draft LaRoche late and say they just want his 25 home runs and don’t care that he only hits in the second half are the same people who ask me on April 15th if they should drop LaRoche for Gaby Sanchez.  That word is bond.  2011 Projections:  75/25/90/.265

21. Derrek Lee – Didn’t really want to turn this thing to 21, but I couldn’t fit Lee anywhere else and felt he needed to be accounted for especially with his new home in Baltimore.  To think I couldn’t get in James Loney at all.  Just don’t think about it for too long.  It’s a waste of time.  So let’s see why Derrek Lee is a candidate for a rebound… He’s old.  He’s only hit more than 22 homers once in the last five years.  He’s dealing with an injured thumb.  The only reason I can think people are suddenly excited about Lee is because the O’s signed him.  The O’s also finished in last place last year thirty games under .500.  This is a team you want to emulate?  If you’re pumped to find Lee on your draft board this late, you’re living in 2005.  Go buy some Apple stock, it hasn’t peaked yet.  2011 Projections:  75/18/80/.275/3

After the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but these two stand out:

Justin Smoak – Already went over my Justin Smoak fantasy.  If you read that post backwards, it’s a Satanic message.  Sorry, churchies!  2011 Projections:  75/22/90/.275

Gaby Sanchez – He’s a lot closer to Billy Butler’s value than he appears to be and at half the cost in your drafts.  Actually, he might be better than Billy Butler.  He’s only unofficially listed at number twenty-three because I wanted to highlight him.  Check out his projections then look at Billy Butler’s.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious!  2011 Projections:  75/20/90/.270/5

After drudging through an Andy Dufresne-type tunnel for the top 20 catchers for 2010, I find myself with a group that actually really hurt or helped your team depending on how you drafted.  If you went wrong with your 1st baseman, it could kill your season.  If you went right, you might’ve won.  Here’s my preseason Top 20 1st Basemen for 2010 for reference sake.  Also, to recap, this final ranking is from ESPN Player Rater with my comments.  The Player Rater allows me to be impartial while looking at how I ranked them in the preseason.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:

1. Albert Pujols – Proves once again if you have the first pick of the draft, you shouldn’t overthink things.  Preseason Rank #1, 2010 Projections:  110/40/120/.337/10, Final Numbers:  115/42/118/.312/14

2. Joey Votto – In my preseason rankings, I put Votto in a tier called, “Yes, please.”  In my December Joey Votto keeper post, I said, “If Votto continues to progress, you’re looking at a guy that could easily give you 32 homers, 10 steals and a .300 average.  If you buy into Joey Votto for 2010, I’ll also throw in a climbing walk rate and OPS for absolutely free!”  And that’s me quoting me!  If you didn’t know I wanted you to draft Votto, you weren’t reading Razzball.  Preseason Rank #10, 2010 Projections:  90/30/105/.305/7, Final Numbers:  106/37/113/.324/16

3. Miguel Cabrera – About as consistent as they come.  Be forewarned, I’m strongly considering Miggy for the number one spot in all of fantasy baseball next year.  What was that about not overthinking things?  Preseason Rank #3, 2010 Projections:  105/35/115/.320/3, Final Numbers:  111/38/126/.328/3

4. Paul Konerko – Konerko’s one of those late round corner men that is always welcome in deep leagues and always ignored in shallow ones.  He falls between the cracks like C+ students.  This year, he took pitchers to school.  Will be really hard for me to expect anything along these lines next year from Konerko and he’ll probably surprise me again.  Preseason Unranked, 2010 Projections:  55/24/75/.260, Final Numbers:  89/39/111/.312

5. Adrian Gonzalez – Well, I’ve seen better seasons.  Miggy for one, that was a better season.  But it’s hard to hate too much on A-Gon.  At least he wasn’t Prince Fielder.  Or Justin Morneau.  Or Teixeira.  Preseason Rank #6, 2010 Projections:  90/38/100/.280, Final Numbers:  87/31/101/.298

6. Aubrey Huff – I didn’t have high hopes for him moving to a pitchers’ park/division.  Yeah, I was wrong.  Hey, even Spielberg made 1941.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  100/26/86/.290/7

7. Ryan Howard – I wanted the 40 homers from Howard and you did too.  So it’s hard to not look at this season as a slight letdown.  Really the whole Phillies offense this year was a letdown.  It’s Citizens Flank, hit some homers before some fans hit you.  Preseason Rank #5, 2010 Projections:  105/47/140/.275, Final Numbers:  87/31/108/.276/1

8. Nick Swisher – Swisher was the kind of pick that helped you win your league.  You draft a random schmohawk in the last rounds, you slot him at corner and he ends up better than your 1st round pick.  I’m farting in your general direction, Fielder.  Preseason Unranked for 1st Basemen, 2010 Projections:  80/30/90/.255, Final Numbers:  91/29/89/.288/1

9. Mark Teixeira – PABST:  Post-All-Star Break’s Stats Teixeira looked more like PBS BS:  Post-Break Stats Before September, which left him looking like a charity case most of the season.  Am I being tough?  Prolly.  Really only his average killed you.  I expect he’ll have a nice bounce back next year.  Preseason Rank #2, 2010 Projections:  100/37/120/.305, Final Numbers:  113/33/108/.256

10. Martin Prado – This is one of those ESPN Player Rater glitches that ranks someone high because of a good average and Runs.  Prado was no 1st baseman.  He was a good corner infidel.  Preseason Unranked for 1st Basemen, 2010 Projections:  70/8/60/.305, Final Numbers:  100/15/66/.307/5

11. Adam Dunn – And, on the hottest day of the year, he blew clouds over your house when your AC went out.  You’re welcome.  Preseason Rank #14, 2010 Projections:  80/40/100/.250, Final Numbers:  85/38/103/.260

12. Billy Butler – I didn’t like him going into 2010 and told people to avoid him.  And his stats still came in way under where I even thought he’d be with only 7.5 homers per moob.  He still wasn’t as big a moob as Kung Fu Panda who didn’t even make the top 30, let alone top 20.  Preseason Rank #18, 2010 Projections:  85/25/100/.295, Final Numbers:  77/15/78/.318

13. Prince Fielder – Where do I start?  Okay, how about the fluky nature of RBIs?  You really can’t blame Fielder for having less RBIs than Juan Uribe.  Then only 32 homers?  Yeah, you can blame that on the Chubbster.  He’s looking like the raison d’etre for Saberhagenmetrics.  One year good, one year bad and so it goes with Fielder.  And so it goes… Preseason Rank #4, 2010 Projections: 100/42/115/.285, Final Numbers:  94/32/83/.261/1

14. Victor Martinez – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2010 post.

15. Luke Scott – Luke, you are my waiver wire fodder.  In a few leagues where I had Scott, I had him for, like, three weeks and had 12 homers from him.  Doode gets hotter than a junebug’s belly.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  70/27/72/.284/2

16. Kevin Youkilis – His low ranking is deceiving.  Assuming you had the fortitude and gumption (gumpitude?) to grab a decent 1st baseman when Youuuuuuk went down, you did okay.  Preseason Rank #8, 2010 Projections:  95/27/105/.295/5, Final Numbers:  77/19/62/.307/4

17. Michael Cuddyer – He’s not exactly ranked high here, but it’s still scary how high he is considering how terrible his final stats are.  I mean, 14 homers?  Really?  Crimey a river, JT.  I think it’s pretty clear the steroid era is over and if someone can get you 30+ homers you must draft them high.  Preseason Rank #21, 2010 Projections:  85/24/95/.275/5, Final Numbers:  93/14/81/.271/7

18. Howie Kendrick – Huh?  At first base?  I’m gonna go over him in the next post on top 20 2nd basemen because this doesn’t make any sense to me.  Preseason Unranked for 1st Basemen, 2010 Projections:  85/12/70/.310/12, Final Numbers:  67/10/75/.279/14

19. Gaby Sanchez – He was in the 2nd Buy/Sell of the year as a lukewarm Buy and he never really moved beyond that.  Was a good pickup for NL-Only or very deep mixed leagues, but if you had Gaby anywhere but the corner infidel spot, you were in trouble.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  72/19/85/.273/5

20. Adam LaRoche – He actually had a decent first half this year (for him) that seemed like it would naturally turn into a career year because he’s always been such a better 2nd half player.  Too bad no one told LaRoche about any of this.  Preseason Rank #24, 2010 Projections:  70/27/80/.265, Final Numbers:  75/25/100/.261