Fantasy Baseball Advice

Hey, I can bench Eric Hosmer!  That was the first thing I thought when I picked up Matt Adams.   First stop for Hosmer is my bench, next stop waivers.  Yesterday, our prospect writer Scott said this about Adams, “Despite the impressive audition (in Spring Training), St. Louis sent him to Triple-A Memphis where he’s hit .338/.373/.597 with 9 HR through his first 150 plate appearances… With an advanced approach, solid on base skills, and plus power, Adams has a chance to do damage in the bigs right away.  He’s worth an add in most formats.  There’s really not much else to say, except Grey is handsome.”  I obviously wouldn’t have copied and pasted all of that if I didn’t agree.  In a 12 team mixed league, I found room for him (then again my offense could use anything at this point — I have Brian Dozier!) by losing Anthony Rizzo.  I do think Rizzo will be up soon and is worth owning, but I could only speculate on one “young 1st baseman that will fix my other young 1st baseman problem (Hosmer!).”  With Berkman possibly out a while (as of this writing, his timetable wasn’t clear, but it didn’t look good and he was talking of retirement), Adams just needs to hit to get everyday playing time (please, deity of my choice, let him hit).  At first, I could see him platooning a bit with Carpenter so don’t overreact on who you drop when you pick up Adams, but if you’re hurting at 1st base, get smart and don Adams.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Aroldis Chapman – Hey, he’s now the closer!  Mazel tov!  I remember when he was just a new Cuban raftee and, now, he’s a man.  A real fine chap, man.  He has yet to allow an earned run in 22 1/3 innings to go with 39 Ks.  Man, that is beautiful.  Shoot, I have to change my shorts.  And…I’m back!  You miss me?

Ryan Ludwick – 3-for-5, 3 RBIs with his 4th homer.  Just when it looked like Heisey finally bought himself a longer leash, Ludwick comes along to confuse Dusty.  (Yes, they both played yesterday, but that was only because there was a DH.)

Paul Konerko – After taking one off his face on Friday, the White Sox said they should be able to punim back in on Tuesday.

Jake Peavy – 6 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  No kidding, who would you prefer:  Peavy or Lincecum?  Is it close?

Gordon Beckham – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in the last three games.  If it’s not the Rip Van Winkle of sleepers.  If you’re desperate for infield help, I could see grabbing him for your middle infidel spot.

Adam Dunn – 1-for-4 with his 14th homer.  Like one of those weekly Bieber’s been trampled by 1400 screaming Asian girls rumors, the reports of Dunn’s death were also premature.  Rob Thomas would say he’s come un-Dunn.  Fantasy Baseball Blurb Police, “Bieber and Rob Thomas in the same blurb?  C’mon, man, don’t make me ticket you.”

Ike Davis – Terry Collins (who?) said that Davis could be headed to the minors.  All kidding aside, have the Mets doctors checked him again for Valley Fever?  Actually, has anyone but the Mets doctors checked him for Valley Fever?

Kevin Youkilis – Phillies and Indians are “monitoring” Youuuuuuuk.  I found this funny for some reason.  Next time I’m caught sitting outside an ex-girlfriend’s house, I’m going to say I was just “monitoring” her.  Wouldn’t surprise me to see Youuuuuuk moved.  Red Sox don’t want to send Middlebrooks down and Youuuuuuk’s so welcome in the Red Sox clubhouse that Bobby Valentine commissioned Billy Ocean to remix his own song to, “Get Outta My Team, Get Into My Veggie Wrap With Swiss Chard.”

Josh Beckett – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 9 baserunners, 5 Ks vs. Cliff Lee, who went 7 IP, 5 ER, 10 baserunners, 6 Ks, as the two last place teams battled.  The Comatose Red Sox and Phillies fans, that conked out the day before the season started, blink their eyes open, “Don’t you mean first place?”

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in as many games, and 7th on the season.  Why do I wish he had 1st base eligibility and I drafted him instead of Hosmer?

Mike Aviles – 2-for-5 with his third homer in as many games.  Thomas Peefuttle who?!  Actually, that’s a made-up name, but Aviles has been good even if you compare him to someone who’s real.

Jonathan Lucroy – 3-for-5, 3 runs, 7 RBIs and 2 homers.  Actually, I wouldn’t mind dropping my whole RCL offense and having only catchers.

Corey Hart – 3-for-5, 3 runs, 2 RBIs with his 9th homer as the Brewers exploded for 16 runs.  Elias Sports Bureau said Corey Hart was rated by People Magazine as The Ugliest Man Alive.  Actually, Elias didn’t say that, but here’s something that was overheard at the Stamford compound of Elias Sports Bureau.  “In Accounting, Jeff and Dave have casually joked about switching wives twenty-seven times in the last two weeks for a new office record.  Also, Jeff recorded it a record 17 times to be used for blackmail purposes later.”

Colby Lewis – 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks vs. the Astros.  In related news, American League pitchers are fully supportive of the Astros’ 2013 league switch.

Vance Worley – Has a bone chip in his elbow.  He says he’s going to “man up” and pitch through the pain.  Who’s he Bruce Willis cutting a bullet out of his arm and bandaging it up with a shirt he rips with his teeth?  Ridiculous to think Worley’s going to be anywhere near as effective and not just end up back on the DL.

Anthony Rizzo – That billboard counting down is not how many hours until the America’s Got Talent premiere, that’s until The Scer arrives.  The Cubs confirmed yesterday what I was saying on Friday.  Rizzo’s arrival, or arrizzal, is imminent.

Max Scherzer – 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 15 Ks. There’s the eggs Woody Allen was talking about that we need.  Hopefully, if you dealt with the bad half of the schizo-Scherzer, you also got this good half.

Rod Barajas – B*****s ain’t shizz usually, but, for those in deep leagues, B*****s has 2 homers in his last three games.

Greg Dobbs – 3-for-4, and .154 over the last week, but whatever.  I just want to rant about how stupid it is that Ozzie is splitting up Hanley and Stanton with Dobbs.  I get the whole righty/lefty thing, but is that really going to change how opposing managers think when they see Greg Dobbs?  It’s not like they’re saying to themselves, “I’d go to my righty here but Dobbs, who’s hitting .253 against righties over the last three years, will kill me.”  Move Giancarlo into the cleanup spot, I need RBIs!

Josh Johnson – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  After the game, his porn star brother, Gosh Johnson sprayed the team with what everyone is hoping was champagne.

Emilio Bonifacio – Ended up on the 15-day DL with a sprained thumb.  When asked how it was feeling, Bonifacio stayed true to his name and tried to put on a good face.

Derek Lowe – 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 2 Ks to lower his ERA to 2.15.  He said he’d have an ERA under 2 if it wasn’t for Indians fans.

Mike Trout – 3-for-4, now batting .355.  At Sunday brunch, he had a mimosa, grapefruit wedges and a slam & two legs.  Trout homered and stole a base off Bass, something the media is calling “Fish on Fish” crime.

Vernon Wells – Headed to the DL with a thumb injury.  He’ll have some free time now to reply to all his fan mail that is meant for the actor from Weird Science, Vernon Wells.

Alexi Amarista – 1-for-6, with a steal.  He was the piece the Padres got from the Angels for Frieri.  Here’s what Bud Black said Scioscia told him, “The first thing (Scioscia) said was this guy can play six positions, he can feel comfortable with them anywhere, he swings the bat and he has some speed, so that versatility plays much better in the National League.”  Right, nothing at all like Maicer Izturis.  With the Padres now having (n)O-Dog, Amarista has been playing 2nd base.  In the minors, he hit for a decent average with speed.  In the majors, I could see him having a .270 average with 25 steals.  Definitely NL-Only grab.  I’d hold for now in most mixed leagues.

Justin Smoak – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and his 5th homer.  I told you last week to grab him for his road trip and now he heads back to Safeco, so where there’s Smoak, there’s other options off the waiver wire.

Mike Carp – Has homers in back-to-back games.  Carpe Carp!

Wei-Yin Chen – 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER as he was pitchslapped by Strasburg.  I’ve seen Tony Pena pitch better than Chen.  And Tony was pitching in a Home Run Derby.

Danny Espinosa – 2-for-5, 2 RBIs with his 4th homer.  Going on about ten days of hot schmotatoness.

Jesus Flores – 1-for-4 with his 1st homer.  If you lost Wilson Ramos, Flores could basically do the same thing.  And that’s a promise or my name isn’t Grey “El Toro” Albright.

Stephen Strasburg – 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 8 Ks, but left the start with bicep tightness.  He said he should be fine for his next start.  He’s going to apply some Hot Stuff and then not touch his groin for the next five days.

Mark Ellis – Will be out for at least 6 weeks as the doctor performed an emergency procedure on him to relieve pressure in his leg.  The Dodgers will turn to Justin “The Inspector” Sellers and Elian “I Wouldn’t Mind Checking Out Miami Again” Herrera.  Elian and Sellers aren’t much to look at outside of deep NL-Only leagues, especially if they’re sharing time.  Since Ellis will be out, the Dodgers may now ask Flavor Flav to no longer stand above Dee Gordon’s head with his giant ticking clock.

Jeff Francoeur – 4-for-4, but I’m giving two of them to the now batting in the seven hole, Hosmer.

Wade Miley – 7 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks.  I see you moving your cursor towards picking up Miley.  Stop and back away from your computer.  Go splash some coffee on your face.  You’re sleepwalking.

Brandon McCarthy – Went to the DL, but the A’s found no damage to his scapula.  Sounds like there should be a chicken in there, i.e., Chicken Scapula.  BTW, when you’re in a fancy restaurant and the waiter rolls up the cart carrying your entrees, make sure you say, “They weren’t joking when they said it was all a la carte.”  It’ll make you look classy.

Allow me an ignorant rant: If you are a baseball fan you know this is the most important time of the year outside of October. Interleague play has taken over MLB and it represents a very important part of baseball: the fans. The people who buy the $4 hot dogs and $8 beers. Sure you may think interleague play is just to sell tickets, but fans buy tickets! People love rivalries and when its time for the Arizona Diamondbacks to play the Kansas City Royals IN KANSAS CITY–well, as a fan I just need to be there. You can taste the bad blood between Willie Bloomquist and Billy Butler. And what fan isn’t in attendance or watching at home when the Mariners are taking on the Colorado Rockies. Hipsters and cowboys alike all watch with anticipation as these heated rivals duke it out. You can just tell Ichiro HATES Carlos Gonzalez, and you can cut that tension with a knife. Let’s not forget Cleveland and Miami duking it out to settle….Um……Well…Who gets LeBron back?

In all seriouslyness, there are some very cool rivalries taking place this weekend including the North and South sides of Chicago squaring off for the title of “Worst Baseball Team,” The Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies try and decide whose fans are drunker and whose are more obnoxious? And clearly every Oriole in the clubhouse already hates Bryce Harper. So, there’s that.  Here’s what happened in fantasy baseball last night:  **Extra Special Interleague Edition**

Justin Verlander - Complete game 1-hit shutout, 12 Ks. Brought a no-no into the ninth, buh Josh Harrison broke it up with 2 outs left. Asked about the tough luck, Verlander shook it off and just stressed how great interleague play is. For the fans.

Delmon Young - Everyone (except Mel Gibson’s) favorite angry outfielder went 2-for-4 with 3 RBIs. After the game, he was spotted getting his picture taken with the Hank Greenberg statue.

Paul Konerko – Hit a first inning HR off Jeff Samardzija. Jeff Samardzija came back out in the third and was all like, “Oh yeah? In yo’ face, Paul Konerko!” Literally, pitchslapping him. The injury sounds like it’s going to be just some minor bruising, i.e., Konerko should be fine. For seriouslyness, it couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy and I hope all is okay. At least he seems like a nice guy, I only read the box scores.

Addison Reed – Got his 4th save. 4-for-4 in save opportunities since taking the job, that one 6 ER Kazaam! has been his only misstep. Reed is the man for now.

Kerry Wood – Ended his career this afternoon by striking out the only batter he faced. It was 19 off from his career high, but whatevs we’ll let it slide. Finishes his career with a 10.3 strikeouts per 9.0 IP rate, 2nd in ML history. He left to a standing ovation and a hug with his sonny. It was such a nice moment, it made Cubs fan forget how bad he’s been this season. Ahhhh, warm embraces with father and son and interleague matchups, this is what baseball is about people.

J.P. Arencibia – 3-for-5 with 6 RBIs, 2 HRs. His third straight game with homer run! ALL HE DOES IS HIT HOME RUNS! Is your fantasy team in need of home runs!? Need a catcher? Why not pick up J.P. Arencibia!

Rajai Davis – 2-for-4 with 2 HRs and 4 RBis. Not sure why I’m telling you, you don’t own him anyway.

Yan Gomes – 1-for-2 with a HR as the Jays absolutely crushed the Mets putting up 14 runs. Grey covered Gomes yesterday. If he continues hitting, and more importantly, playing, Yanny the singer/songwriter/baseball player could be a sneaky add with his catcher eligibility. He also plays a number of positions (none very well I read). Make sure you monitor closely.

Andy Pettitte- Yankees combined to shutout the Reds. Pettitte pitch 8 IP with 9 K. Wow. Might be worth a look, he gets the Royals next week. Pettitte added that he agreed with Justin Verlander about how awesome interleague play is…for the fans.

Robinson Cano – 2-for-3 with his 4th home run. Still one more than Albert! Robbie, Robbie getting hits like it’s his hobby. No–like it’s his jobby! It’s actually his jobby.

Adrian Gonzalez – 1-for-4 with just his 3rd home run. I’m sure that .273 average should go up well above .300 but I’m not sure Adrian is the 30+ home run player we all once thought he was. 25 seems more realistic. I say this because he’s on my team and I’m in my 5th stage: acceptance.

Martin Prado – 2-for-4 with a HR and 3 runs. Now has a 10 game hitting streak and 6 straight multi-hit games. Martin Bravo is more like it! Right?!

Edwin Jackson – 8.0 innings pitched 1 ER with 8 Ks but the Nats can’t muster any offense and lose in extra innings with a Nick Markakis Sparkakis. Oh, but the K’s, the glorious Ks! I’m not sorry, Mr. Jackson, I’ll take this fantasy start any day of the week.

Heath Bell – Pitched a clean 9th inning to get his 4th save. If you still own Cishek or Mujica it may be safe to drop now. Carlos Zambrano earned his second straight win 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K. Ozzie Guillen loves Carlos Zambrano magic, he said he reminds him of a young Fidel Castro. No wait–Heath Bell said that. Will he lose the closer’s job now!?

Adrian Beltre – 2-for-3 and 2 RBIs with his 8th HR. Yo, Adrian! You did it. (I promise that’ll be my only Rocky joke.) Josh Hamilton stole a base, but went homer-less. Pathetic.  You can’t win, Hamilton!  (Sorry.)

Krispie Young – Returned from DL to DH and went 1-for-4 with a 2 run double. It’s good to have Krispie back, he is good at baseball (*Pro Tip!). His BFF Justin Upton (they are best friends in my mind, at least) went 2-for-3 with 3 runs. J-Ups is slowly but surely making me feel better for drafting him so high, he’s just happy to have his best friend back.

Kevin Millwood –  Complete game 2-hit shutout of Rockies at Coors. His complete game first in 9 years! He struck out 7.  Prince, “He’s pitching like it’s 1999.”

Ryan Braun – 3-for-4 with the slam and legs and a side of mash (3 hits!). Mmmmm, breakfast food!

Denard Span – 4-for-5 with 3 runs and 3 RBIs in his return from a hamstring injury. Pretty good, I guess but I’d be more impressed if he stole a base, too. The Twins owned this game as Joe Mauer, Josh Willingham and Justin Morneau all chipped in multi-hit efforts. Grey was right! Those Twins are hot-hitting! PICK UP ALL THE TWINS!  Except Dozier.  Snooze.

Mike Trout – 3-for-4 with a stolen base and a triple. If you are fishing for a compliment, Mike Trout, no need. You are quite the catch. That Albert, however, 1-for-4, still sort of floundering.

Jered Weaver – 7.0 IP, 3 hits, 2 ER, 4 Ks as Weaver rebounded huge after last week’s 8 ER debacle. I guess you don’t have to drop him anymore. Scott Downs came in this game in the 8th, and was replaced with Ernesto Frieri in the 9th after the Angels scored 3 runs. Not sure what to make of this yet, hopefully just Mike being a Sciosciapath and he removed Downs because it was no longer a save opportunity. Think of the fantasy owners, Mike!  Or maybe Mike was removing Downs from the closer role because Downs hadn’t done anything, like Walden before him.

Melky Cabrera – 2-for-3 with 2 runs in a high scoring game with very few fantasy implications with Buster Posey out. Anyone own Angel Pagan? He had 3 runs!

Josh Donaldson – 3-for-5 with a home run. Wait. Who is this?

Matt Holliday – 1-for-3 with a 2-run home run. It was Holliday’s 9th home run as the Cards lost to the Kemp-less Dodgers. Lance Lynn pitched 6.0, 9 hits, 4 ER, and 5 Ks. Double L, It was fun while it lasted.

Lance Berkman – Pinch hit HR in the 9th to tie it as the Big Puma, baseball’s resident super hero BerkMAN saves the day only to be foiled by his arch nemesis Fernando Salas (0.1 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 3 BB).

Jason Heyward is the kind of player I love in OPS leagues. He draws a lot of walks and hits enough extra-base hits to raise his OPS league value well above that captured in standard 5×5 leagues. Following his manager-ordered off-year in 2011, J-Hey appears to be himself again. While his BB% is below and his K% is above his career averages, I’m not worried and view it largely due to a more aggressive approach since he’s currently hitting everything in sight. Expecting an .850 OPS this year is not unreasonable, considering he did just that in 2010, at the age of 20! I’ll conservatively project a line of .370/.460/.830 for the rest of this season, with upside for a little OBP and much more slugging.

Matt Holliday has always been a reliable .900 OPS player, but this year I’m worried. Yes, a regression in his BABIP will improve his overall line, but there are many reasons for concern. First, his speed is nonexistent, as evidenced by his 2012 speed score of 1.4, also known as Bengie Molina’s career average. Next, his O-Swing% and O-Contact% are well above his career averages, meaning he is swinging at and making more contact with pitches outside the strike zone. Finally, he is walking at roughly half his career rate. Small sample caveats aside, this year Holliday is slower, less patient, and making worse contact. Best case scenario, I’d project a rest of season line at .370/.490/.860, which is still great. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him struggle to maintain his end of season OPS above .800.

Eric Hosmer was about as hyped as they come this year, and rightly so. He breezed through the minor leagues and maintained an OPS near .800 as a 21-year-old rookie. Despite currently having an OPS near .700, there are reasons for optimism. Relative to 2011, his BB% increased while his K% has held constant. Additionally, he’s hitting a similar percentage of line drives, flyballs, and groundballs relative to 2011. These factors suggest that his extremely low BABIP, may be contributing to his struggles. This leads me to project Hosmer to have an OPS above last year’s .800 for the rest of the season. I would count on a .350/.470/.820 line, with upside for .360/.500/.860 if he turns things around soon. Even if his struggles continue, I promise you this year Hosmer will not have a bigger bust than Billy Butler. Speaking of who’s got the moobs like Butler…

Pablo Sandoval is always hungry for more. Kung Fu Panda has been a high OPS player throughout his career and this year appears to be no different. He’s an interesting kind of high OPS player because he doesn’t have a relatively high walk rate, but his excellent batting average props up his OBP to respectable levels. His slugging, aside from his down year in 2010, has been elite and I see no reason for this to change. He seems to be as safe as they come in OPS leagues, with a baseline near .350/.550/.900. An OPS of .900 would rank him atop the league leaders and is particularly valuable at third base, where he would likely trail only Miguel Cabrera and Jose Bautista.

Chase Headley has been taking a walk on the mild side. Over 20% of his plate appearances have resulted in a walk this year, representing a tremendous increase from 11.8% in 2011 and his career average near 10%. In addition, he is swinging less at and making less contact with pitches outside the strike zone. I believe these numbers indicate some real improvement in patience at the plate and Headley will be able to maintain his OBP around .370, which he sustained last year. Clearly his .600 slugging is far from sustainable, and largely a product of a HR/FB above 25%, but I could see a slight improvement from his career average of .400 slugging. For the rest of the season, I’ll project a .370/.400/.770 as the floor, with room for some improvement in slugging.

David Ortiz’s hits don’t lie. The Latin 36-year-old has been a bright spot amid the slow start by the Red Sawks. Though he lacks positional flexibility (or any flexibility for that matter), he is a fantastic asset in an OPS league. His insanely high OPS is largely being driven by a BABIP near .500. Once this regresses, I believe he will still be able to approach his 2010 numbers. Since arriving at Fenway, Big (Grand) Papi has only had one year (2009) without an OPS near or above .900. I see no reason for this year to be any different, despite my annual concerns about his age. I’d conservatively project a line of .360/.500/.860 for the rest of the season, with upside for much more slugging. Speaking of players who continually elude Father Time…

Paul Konerko has been in the catbird seat waiting for duck snorts, or whatever Hawk’s been saying. I’ve given up understanding how, after posting an OPS below .850 from 2007-09, he’s produced an OPS above .900 since 2010. Despite being a non-Latin 36-year-old, Konerko is off to a roaring start this year. His near 1.000 OPS is aided by a high BABIP, although I’m confident he’ll remain an exceptional player when this regresses. I’ll keep my eye on his BB%, which is less than his last couple years, but he probably isn’t worried about walking when everything he makes contact with falls for a hit. I’ll project him to approach last year’s numbers for the rest of the season with a .380/.500/.880 baseline that could result in more slugging while he resides at the fountain of youth.

The top 10 and top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball are in the bag, along with the top 20 catchers and your receipt for a $30 massage valued at $50.  Thanks, Groupon!  Today, Razzhands, we look at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.  All this shizz can be found under the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  Don’t believe me?  Click the link.  This top 20 list of 1st basemen is bursting at the seams like you at a Hometown Buffet.  Speaking of gorging yourself, I’d like a top 1st baseman on my team in 2012, but it’s a little different year than last year.  There’s actually only 5 top first basemen then caveats on number 6 (Te(i)x) through 9, then there’s some interesting flyers a bit later.  I have a feeling 2013′s rankings are going to see major shifts with some guys that are lower on this ranking sheet moving up.  Should be a fun year for first basemen and one where you can take a bit more risk than previous years.  This list will get additional 1st basemen added to it in the way of sleeper posts.  As with the other rankings, the first basemen are broken up into tiers with my projections included.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Miguel Cabrera – See top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Miguel Cabrera’s projections.

2. Albert Pujols – See top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Albert Pujols’s projections.

3. Joey Votto – See top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Joey Votto’s projections.

4. Adrian Gonzalez – See top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Adrian Gonzalez’s projections.

5. Prince Fielder – See top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Prince Fielder’s projections.

6. Mark Teixeira – See top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Mark Teixeira’s projections.  This is actually a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Michael Young.  I call this tier, “Caterpillars.  Tier name will be explained in the Young blurb.  Feel free to read Young’s blurb then return here.  Hey, back already?!  Awesome!  I missed you.  Do you enjoy cuddling?”

7. Paul Konerko – He’s been wildly consistent.  In 2008 when he hit only 22 homers, it looks like the anomaly.  If I were to say 2012 is the year he gets old and it all falls apart, I’d just be guessing.  Last year he hit hardly any doubles, more line drives and singles, but he’s also getting smarter cutting his K-rate and increasing his walk rate.  The biggest hurdle Konerko is going to have this year is keeping his will to play as the team folds on Opening Day.  Maybe Hawk can work in some of his positivism in the negativity.  “This is the fastest a team has ever been out of contention!  You can put it on the board… We gone!”  2012 Projections:  85/29/100/.290

8. Lance Berkman – Let’s see if you can pick out the number that doesn’t belong, these are his homer totals from 2009 to 2011 — 25, 14, 31.  If you said 14, you’re a believer.  Feel free to draft Berkman.  If you said 31, you’re in my camp.  We will not be drafting Berkman.  If you said 27, that wasn’t a choice.  Berkman didn’t necessarily have an odd year for homers per fly balls.  He made solid contact, reducing his ground balls, but he’s 36 years old and missing Pujols.  That’s enough for me to avoid.  2012 Projections:  80/24/95/.275/3

9. Michael Young – This tier is filled with some older shorties, huh?  Go, shorty, it’s your 35th birthday; we gonna party like it’s your 35th birthday!  As I kinda said in the opening paragraph, the 1st basemen in 2012 are about to go caterpillar up in here and morph into a butterfly, but with that butterfly emerging from its cocoon Don Ameche-style, it needs to shed its caterpillar skin (can you tell I did well in my college science courses?).  This tier is gonna leave behind some caterpillar skin that will be released into the garden and turn into a new plant and/or Eric Hosmer.  (Again, not a science major.)  To explain all of this without the confusing metaphor, guys in this tier are getting old and will make way for guys in the next tier for next year.  As for Young, I don’t like him because he only gives average, and, while that’s been consistently solid in his career, he still got lucky last year and he’s due to hit a lot closer to .300 than .340.  Projections:  75/15/90/.310/5

10. Carlos Santana – Here comes the fun!  Can you feel the excitement?  It’s like that time we got together and did the crab circle dance in the pool in Cabo San Lucas and all our roommates were there except Zach and Ashley — but who needs them anyway?!  This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Butler.  I call this tier, “The crab circle in Cabo San Lucas.”  Is that too specific a reference?  You guys and three girl readers get it.  See the top 20 catchers for 2012 fantasy baseball to see Carlos Santana’s projections.

11. Eric Hosmer – I’m ignoring sophomore jinxes like I ignored when my whole sophomore class saw me get depantsed and I had on dirty tightie-whities.  I continue to stress that they were once all brown underwear that got bleached.  Hosmer is going to be special, and even if it’s not this year, he’s going to hold trade value through the season unless his bottom really falls out, which I don’t envision happening.  His commitment to stealing around ten bases will keep him from totally flopping.  He will be Joey Votto-lite this year.  How lite is the only question.  I don’t think it’ll be that lite.  BTW, you know who’s Billy Butler-lite?  Kirstie Alley.  2012 Projections:  85/25/95/.280/10

12. Michael Morse – I think Morse just had his best season, but I also don’t think he’s gonna fall like, say, Ryan Ludwick of a few years ago, to mention a player that was old for a prospect, broke out then went back to obscurity.  Speaking of which, when you get robbed in a parking garage and the security guard tells the police they didn’t hear anything, you tell them they’re more like obscurity!  Store it away for when it’s applicable.  Morse had the trappings* of a breakout but his health always got in the way.  I’m excited to watch the Nats this year and Morse should be smack dab in the middle of it.  *I have no idea if I used trappings right but it sounded pretty cool the way I just threw it out there, right?  2012 Projections:  80/27/90/.275/3

13. Michael Cuddyer – Gets away from Hubert H. Homerfree Dome and goes to Coors.  Boom goes the dynamite!  Or does it?  Cuddyer just had a solid season, and terrific when compared to the team around him.  Jack Wilson would’ve looked good in that Minnesota mucky muck last year.  Cuddyer hits a ton of ground balls and he’s not a huge homer threat.  I’d say if he repeats his 2011, it’s a win for him and his fantasy owners, especially since he has 2nd base eligibility in some leagues (17 games).  Check your rules first before you draft him for 2nd, then think about how you’re checking rules for fantasy baseball.  And you wonder why you have no success with the ladies.  2012 Projections:  75/22/85/.275/5

14. Mark Reynolds – His K-rate is kinda comical.  He’s a terrible real baseball player.  But real baseball is for real athletes.  What kind of crap is that?!  Give me a computer, an ergonomic chair and some Doritos, I’m playing fantasy baseball!  As long as Mini Donkey continues to hit 35 homers and steal 7-10 bases, he has solid fantasy value, just don’t draft Krispie Young, Adam Dunn or any other low average guys with him.  Actually, don’t draft Adam Dunn at all.  2012 Projections:  75/35/90/.230/7

15. Adam Lind – The reason why I still go back to Lind no matter how many times he kicks my metaphorical puppy is because he’s capable of 35+ homers.  Also, he got a bad rap in 2010 for being a guy that comes with a poor average, but he’s not that, y’all!  He’s around a .260 guy with neutral luck.  That’s a’ight, and a’ight is better than just a’ight but not quite a’ight a’ight.  Want a silly prediction that has no basis in science or fact?  Lind’s gonna be a top three finisher in 2012 for MVP.  2012 Projections:  90/32/105/.270 (<–crazy optimistic, but whatevs)

15 1/2. Billy Butler – I gave Butler a half ranking because he only has 11 games at 1st base.  In Yahoo leagues, you can place The Moob Man at 1st.  I’d use two hands so one moob doesn’t feel neglected.  Yes, Butler’s in the exciting tier, but I worry that Butler will only get 17 or less homers with a bad case of blimpotence.  But II, The Return of But, at 26 years old I think we can trust he’ll hover closer to 20 ding dongs.  Butler, “Did someone say ding dongs?!”  2012 Projections:  90/20/100/.300

16. Ryan Howard – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the list.  I call this tier, “Some major question marks, but a chance for nice dividends.”  Howard will move in the rankings at some point in the preseason when we know exactly when he’s gonna return.  If he’s back by the end of April, he hits 25-30 homers and is worth stashing.  If he’s not due back until midseason, I wouldn’t even bother drafting him and would drop him off this list completely.  I don’t believe in DL’ing players for months in redraft leagues.  For example, think about how many years you drafted Brandon Webb waiting for him to return from injury.  Yeah, that worked out well.  2012 Projections:  70/28/100/.260 (returning on May 1st)

17. Mike Napoli – See the top 20 catchers for 2012 fantasy baseball to see Mike Napoli’s projections.

18. Ike Davis – Last year, Ike took so many hits on the DL; somewhere Tina Turner was smiling.  Davis says his ankle will be good to go for Spring Training.  I say, just keep him away from the Mets doctors.  From this tier, I’d say Davis has the biggest chance to shoot up the rankings for next year.  Or he could have one setback and miss another three months.  2012 Projections:  85/22/90/.280

19. Mark Trumbo – When I went over Albert Pujols’s signing, I also covered Trumbo’s question mark.  As long as Abreu, Double I and Kendrys are shooting the shizz and talking about the good old times, Trumbo’s either playing 3rd or in trouble of losing playing time.  3rd base would be great, but his defense might give Scioscia the gas face.  I really can’t see someone who gave Jeff Mathis 1360 plate appearances in 5 years playing Trumbo at third.  That’s a huge question mark.  If Trumbo can get 500 plate appearances, then I’d happily draft him. Remember a platoon player at catcher is doable for fantasy, but at 1st or even at corner you need stats.  Projections:  60/25/75/.260/7 (500 PAs)

20. Paul Goldschmidt – I already went over my Paul Goldschmidt fantasy.  I wrote it while rooting for Garfield from Parking Wars to boot a car.  2012 Projections:  75/27/85/.245/7

After the top 20 1st basemen, there’s a lot of names but these stand out:

Kendrys Morales – Might not be a bigger question mark on this entire list.  Ryan Howard could be out for a while, but if he returns, you should get decent production.  Kendrys might return and still be crizzap.  Or he might return and platoon with Abreu or Trumbo or Wells.  Or he might return and be valuable.  You got more variables than an episode of Mythbusters.  Boom!  I’m bigger on basic cable than Chumlee!  2012 Projections:  65/22/75/.290

Justin Morneau – This is one question mark that I’m not drafting anywhere.  This schmohawk can come to my house and make me a perfectly medium-rare steak with the most amazing compound butter and I won’t go near him because, after last year, his steak will probably give me an immediate heart attack.  2012 Projections:  60/17/75/.285

Gaby Sanchez – He (she?) can give you modest power and solid counting stats.  Plus, you can pretend you have a girl on your team.  You ask why he’s not ranked and I answer that he is.  He’s ranked just after Morneau.  Him and Morneau are a bit of a toss-up, but Morneau has an outside chance at bigger power numbers.  Gaby has a better chance of actually playing a full season.  2012 Projections:  65/20/85/.265/3

Freddie Freeman – I don’t look forward to drafting Freeman.  So much so, I won’t draft him.  So much so much so, I didn’t even rank him.  He’s not ranked.  He’s just blurbed here.  He’s too much James Loney for my taste.  He has a slightly off year on power and you’re gonna be lucky to get 17 homers.  Belch called and said burp.  2012 Projections:  60/19/75/.280/3

Yonder Alonso – I took all the prospect reports on Alonso and put through my supercomputer and out came, “Should develop into a 20+ homer hitter with a great eye.  Padres TV can save time by eliminating instant replay because he runs like he’s in slow mo.”  I liked Yonder a lot more when he was on the Reds with no starting job than on the Padres with a starting job.  It’s just so hard to get excited about a hitter’s upside in Petco.  2012 Projections:  55/16/70/.280

Justin Smoak – I’m letting someone else take the Smoak gamble this year.  Until he hits 25+ homers, I don’t want to mess with his .240-ish average.  Call me crazy.  You, “Crazy.”  2012 Projections:  55/18/65/.245

Carlos Pena – Looking for someone this year that can do what Adam Dunn did last year?  Look no further!  He signed with the Rays, but it doesn’t matter.  He is what he is everywhere he plays.  I will now slap myself hard across the face for saying a variation of “it is what it is.”  2012 Projections:  55/25/75/.210

Adam Dunn – Everyone seems to think Dunn is not, um, done.  Correction:  Everyone that did not own him last year.  I guess they want a piece of the frustration that others felt last year.  That’s like standing at the craps table and watching roll after roll where people lose and you’re like, “Now is the time to get in!”  No, it’s not.  There’s no reason why the table is going to turn for the better.  The big-bellied age quickly and poorly.  Don’t go near Dunn just because you lucked out not owning him last year.  And, if you did own him last year and want more, then you’re like Homer grabbing the donut no matter how many times the electrical current shocks him.  2012 Projections:  55/22/80/.220 (<–actually optimistic)

Anthony Rizzo – Because I couldn’t end the post on a sour note with Adam Dunn, here’s R to the izzo.  I already went over my Anthony Rizzo 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it while huffing.  It was also written before the trade to the Cubs, so the end about how I wanna take a chainsaw to Petco is irrelevant.  I don’t think we’ll see Rizzo until June at the earliest so in redraft leagues, I’d ignore him, but in keeper leagues I’d stash him.  He could hit 25 homers as soon as next year.  If he breaks camp with the Cubs, then it’s on like Steve Wiebe playing Donkey Kong.  2012 Projections:  30/10/45/.250/4 (in 300 ABs)

Brandon Belt – Okay, one more!  This is it though.  If Belt were guaranteed everyday playing time, I’d place him between Napoli and Davis.  Around 16 and a half.  Belt is capable of 25/10/.280, which would have him poised to be a top 5 1st baseman next year.  The problem is Bruce Bochy has a gigantic head, but a very small brain.  Hopefully he realizes Belt ties the entire Giants outfit together.  2012 Projections:  70/24/80/.280/10 (in 500 ABs)

After drudging through an Andy Dufresne-type tunnel for the top 20 catchers for 2011, I find myself with a group that actually really hurt or helped your team depending on how you drafted. If you went wrong with your 1st baseman, it could kill your season.  Hey, Justin Morneau, no hard feelings from me.  We are totally fine.  Please enjoy these cyanide pills I made special for you.  If you went right, you might’ve won your league. To recap, this final ranking is from ESPN Player Rater with my comments. The Player Rater allows me to be impartial while looking at how I ranked them in the preseason. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:

1. Miguel Cabrera – Member when people were moving away from Swiggy Cabrera in the preseason and I said stop paying attention to preseason nonsense?  You need to turn down the treble and remove the noise.  I’m not sure if people run with these nonsense stories to sell pageviews or they really believe the tripe their slinging.  Either way, it made no difference.  Miguel’s breathalyzer never dips below .320, but his power was a bit down.  But II, The Return of But, he still gave you all that and a bag of breath mints for the long ride home.  Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections:  110/37/120/.320/5, Final Numbers:  111/30/105/.344/2

2. Adrian Gonzalez – Sure, I ranked him 5th for all 1st basemen in the preseason, but he was also ranked 10th overall with five first basemen in my preseason top 10.  People said I was crazy to stack my top 10 with 1st basemen and power hitters.  People said you can get 1st basemen later.  Grab Youkilis, people said.  Or Aubrey Huff.  Or Morneau.  Oh, wait, I was one of those people that said to grab Morneau.  Oh, well.  They ain’t all gems.  Hopefully that’s my last comment about Morneau for at least three blurbs.  Okay, one more Morneau comment.  In the preseason, I said, “Morneau’s more valuable than Youuuuuk if he can stay healthy, but put Morneau staying healthy in one hand and a fortune cookie that says, “Morneau never stays healthy” in the other hand and what do you have?  Exactly!”  And that’s me foreseeing crap and not even getting out of the way when Morneau started flinging it!  Preseason Rank #5, 2011 Projections:  100/37/110/.280, Final Numbers:  108/27/117/.338/1

3. Albert Pujols – I’m beginning to think that he could miss five of six months and still get 100/35/100/.300.  On a side note, he should open a bar in West Hollywood named Pujols.  It would give The Manhole a run for its money.  Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections:  105/37/115/.315/10, Final Numbers:  105/37/99/.299/9

4. Joey Votto – Another reason to take a first baseman very early in a draft.  How many of them flopped from my first 20 overall picks?  None.  There were shortstops that flopped.  Outfielders that flopped.  No 1st basemen.  Sure, Ryan Howard didn’t hit for a great average, but he still got 110+ RBIs and 30+ homers.  Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections:  95/32/110/.310/10, Final Numbers:  101/29/103/.309/8

5. Prince Fielder – Just another huge year on an odd-numbered year.  Making us saberhagenmetricians look smart.  Preseason Rank #4, 2011 Projections:  100/38/115/.280, Final Numbers: 95/38/115/.299/1

6. Michael Young – Another guy that had a ton of noise around him in the preseason.  “Ooh, Grey, your mustache is full and beautiful but don’t you think Young will be hurt by all of this trade talk.”  That’s you.  Me, “Stop listening to all this superfluous stuff.”  Only I didn’t say stuff.  I said shizz.  Preseason Rank #8 for 3rd basemen, 2011 Projections:  85/17/80/.280/5, Final Numbers:  88/11/106/.338/6

7. Lance Berkman – Said in the preseason that maybe Lance Berkman can give you a 2010 Konerko-type year (a big bounce back for a vet), but I really didn’t believe Berkman could do it.  Then for almost two months I continued to tell you he’d stop doing it or get injured while he was actually doing it.  Yeah, Berkman and I had our differences this year.  I don’t believe in Berkman for next year either, if you were wondering how obstinate I can be.  Preseason Rank #17, 2011 Projections:  65/20/75/.270/5, Final Numbers:  90/31/94/.301/2

8. Paul Konerko – For Konerko, I’m sick of predicting the end when the end just keeps running into the here and now.  That is not a line from Air Supply, but could be.  Preseason Rank #15, 2011 Projections:  70/24/85/.265, Final Numbers:  69/31/105/.300/1

9. Michael Morse – First totally out of nowhere name, which means if you decided to punt 1st base early in your draft, you had to get Morse or you were screwed.  BTW, his photo makes him look like the biggest doofus.  And, really, I don’t use the word doofus too much, except when it’s totally applicable like right now.  Looks like he should be saying, “Which way did he go, George; which way did he go?”  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  73/31/95/.303/2

10. Mark Teixeira – The average has really dipped recently (.256 in 2009), which I no longer think is an aberration, but three times in a row is a better pattern.  The rule of three yadda³.  As long as he’s on the Yanks and hitting in The House They Built In The Parking Lot Next To The House That Ruth Built, it’s gonna be hard to fault all the other stats.  Preseason Rank #6, 2011 Projections:  105/35/115/.280, Final Numbers:  90/39/111/.248/4

11. Mike Napoli – Went over Napoli in the top 20 catchers for 2011 fantasy baseball post.

12. Ryan Howard – I don’t buy that he was actually this low in value.  Again, this is somewhere the ESPN Player Rater and I don’t see eye to eye.  They overrate average and steals.  As for everyone who agrees that Ryan Howard wasn’t good this year and I’m crazy, I like to point you to a picture of my long-lost son.  Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections:  85/38/100/.265, Final Numbers:  81/33/116/.253/1

13. Eric Hosmer – Not bad for two-thirds of a season.  Not to scream fire in the theater of Razzball, but he kinda looks like the 2nd coming of Votto.  No, I don’t use those words lightly.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  66/19/78/.293/11

14. Howie Kendrick – Kendrick is such a cusp player.  I’ll explain.  If he gets 5 less homers or steals, he loses so much of his value.  It tends to be the case with guys who get a lot of value from average.  See Michael Young as another example.  Preseason Rank #14 for 2nd basemen, 2011 Projections:  65/12/85/.305/15, Final Numbers:  86/18/63/.285/14

15. Billy Butler – His season was decent, about what I’d expect (as you see from my preseason projections), but I’m not exactly altering my copy of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo to a picture book with Butler titled, The Man with the Luscious Cans, because his cans were only saved by a 2nd half that was big like his badonkadonk.  Preseason Rank #13, 2011 Projections:  80/20/90/.310, Final Numbers:  74/19/95/.291/2

16. Michael Cuddyer – His real value came when he gained 2nd base eligibility.  Also, I do these top 20 listings in the order you read them, so I’ve only done the catchers and 1st basemen thus far.  I tell you this because I was just thinking that I bet Cuddyer is the only Twins hitter or pitcher to rank anywhere in these end of the season lists.  What a shizzshow in Minny.  At the end of the year, they should have a Worst Series, where the two worst teams square off in a best of seven.  Like you wouldn’t watch the Astros take on the Twins.  Preseason Rank #51 for outfielders, 2011 Projections:  85/20/80/.275/5, Final Numbers:  70/20/70/.284/11

17. Mark Trumbo – It’s a little weird how much I ignore average.  I looked at Trumbo and Hosmer’s season and really had no idea how Trumbo was below him in ranking.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  65/29/87/.254/9

18. Freddie Freeman – Having a hard time figuring out how his season was worse than Mr. Grapefruit, Billy Butler.  Feel free to share if you figure it out.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  67/21/76/.282/4

19. Carlos Lee – The one nice thing I can say about Carlos Lee is you didn’t expect anything and he didn’t disappoint.  Preseason Rank #18, 2011 Projections:  65/24/75/.260/3, Final Numbers:  66/18/94/.275/4

20. Mark Reynolds – After Bautista, Mini Donkey caused probably the biggest uproar in the preseason due to my ranking.  I ranked him 6th overall for 3rd basemen and he finished the year 8th overall.  Out of all the preseason projections for 3rd basemen (which will be up in a few days), Reynolds ended up coming in closest to where I thought he would.  Terrible average, good power and some light speed.  So far I’ve been more right about Reynolds than any other player through the course of his career.  It’s like I’m wearing Birkenstocks, loose-fitting sweats, doing Downward Facing Donkey pose and looking right through Reynolds’ third chakra.  Or something.  Preseason Rank #6 for 3rd basemen, 2011 Projections:  80/35/95/.235/12, Final Numbers:  84/37/86/.221/6