Fantasy Baseball Advice

Can you believe that the BBWAA gave our blog voting rights for this year’s MLB Hall of Fame ballot?

Just kidding.  They haven’t made a decision that ill-informed since, um, electing Jim Rice and Andre Dawson.  But I’m going to pretend we have a vote this year and explain the decisions on our ballot.

Here is some background on how I analyze players for the HOF:

Much like the Earth and many a good joke, the views on Hall of Fame worthiness have two poles.  The first pole is the traditional view which focuses on seasonal and career ‘baseball card’ stats like AVG/Hits/HR/RBI or Wins/ERA, factors in dominance based on MVP/Cy Young voting + reputation during one’s career, and the post-season success for that individual and their team(s).    The second pole is the sabermetric view which relies on more advanced statistics with the aim of crediting the best players based on objective criteria.

I am much, much closer to the sabermetric pole than the traditionalist pole.  My view on baseball (and life) is to question and adapt my views when presented with compelling information.  I’ve been convinced that OBP & Times on Base are superior to AVG and Hits and that the traditional view of baseball has underestimated the value of walks.  I can’t view HRs or even Slugging percentage as an absolute reflection of power and look for advanced stats to adjust for era and park factors.  Runs and RBIs are clearly important – you need to score runs to win games – but it’s hard to balance these stats against lineup strength, era, park factors, etc.  The same goes for pitching:  I think ERA/WHIP needs to be adjusted per era/park factors/team defense, Wins are a questionable measure given their reliance on team strength, etc.

As advanced statistics have improved, I put less faith in MVPs/Cy Youngs/All-Star voting.  The writers (and fans for All-Star) voting for those awards over the years didn’t either have access to the advanced learnings that sabermetrics has provided and/or don’t believe it.  For instance, let’s look at the 1996 MVP voting.  Juan Gonzalez had a fantastic hitting year (.314/47/144 with a .368 OBP, below average running/defense and favorable park that led him to not even make the AL Top 10 in OPS+) but exactly how could that be considered more valuable than Ken Griffey Jr. (.303/49/140 with a .392 OBP, solid baserunning, and the most valuable defensive player in the league based on Defensive WAR) or Alex Rodriguez (.358/36/123 with a .414 OBP, positive baserunning and above-average SS defense)?  In fact, of the 21 players to get at least one AL MVP vote in 1996, Juan Gonzalez had the worst Wins Above Replacement (WAR).  In addition, there are also some years where a player wins the MVP/Cy Young by default because there really isn’t a player who warrants it and vice versa (see 1996 where Ken Griffey and Alex Rodriguez – as well as Chuck Knoblauch – were worthy MVP candidates).  Does that make their year any less MVP-worthy?

So here are the criteria/stats I’m using for my HOF analysis:

1) Career Excellence - I am measuring this by career WAR (Wins Above Replacement).  This statistic – which was developed by Sean Smith and is available for free on Baseball-Reference.com or Sean’s ownBaseballProjection.com – calculates the value of a hitter’s offense/defense/running or a pitcher’s pitching vs. those of a replacement player (minor leaguer or waiver wire claim).  Many factors such as position, era, park, defense (for pitchers) are accounted for.  (note:  there are slight differences in WAR calculations between Baseball-Reference and BaseballProjection.com – I use those from B-R unless otherwise noted.)

2) Peak Excellence - I think most traditional and sabermetric fans and voters agree that – everything equal – a player who had a dominant peak is more preferable to one who was just very good for a long period of time.  Rather than focus on awards, I’ve taken the B-R (and I assume Sean Smith) suggested breaks of 5.0+ WAR for an All-Star season and 8.0+ WAR for an MVP season.    For reference, between 1901 and 2010, there were 282 hitting seasons and 132 pitching seasons that surpassed 8.0.  That roughly 2.7 hitters and 1.2 pitchers per year which seems fair when you consider there are about 2x the hitters than pitchers who play enough to reach this total.

(Bit of trivia:  The year with the most 8.0+ WAR hitters is 2004 with 6:  Barry Bonds (12.4), Adrian ‘El Senator‘ Beltre (10.1), Albert Pujols (9.4), Scott Rolen (9.2), Jim Edmonds (8.4), and Ichiro (8.1).  The NL MVP vote went exactly in WAR order for the 5 NL’ers.  Vladamir Guerrero (7.4) beat Ichiro for AL MVP who finished 7th.   The year with the most pitchers 8.0+ was 1971 with 6:  Wilbur Wood (10.7), Fergie Jenkins (9.2), Tom Seaver (9.2), Vida Blue (8.8), Mickey Lolich (8.6), and Dave Roberts (8.5).  Vida Blue and Mickey Lolich finished above Wilbur Wood for AL Cy Young while Fergie Jenkins edged out Tom Seaver for NL.)

I’ve combined the above into one stat using the following formula:  Career WAR + 10 * MVP seasons (8.0+ WAR) + 5 * All-Star seasons (5.0-7.9 WAR).  I’ll call this ‘Peak-Adjusted WAR’ for the series of posts.  This is admittedly arbitrary but seems to do a fair job at rewarding those with high peaks vs. long careers.  Case in point:  Carlton Fisk has one more career WAR than Gary Carter (67.3 to 66.3) aided by playing close to 2 more seasons worth of games.  But Gary Carter had 8 seasons of All-Star value (most ever for a catcher amongst retired players as of 2005) while Carlton Fisk only had 4.  This adjustment puts Carter ahead of Fisk 106.3-87.3 (2nd and 3rd behind Johnny Bench).  Sandy Koufax has far less career WAR to Don Sutton (54.5 to 70.8) but his 3 MVP seasons (1963, 1965, 1966) and two All-Star seasons give him 40 extra points where Don Sutton’s 4 All-Star seasons give him 20.  Thus, Koufax scores higher 94.5 to 90.8.  (Click here for access to the spreadsheet on Google Docs).

In looking at the scores across all players, I’d say for me that a peak-adjusted WAR of 100 is a no-brainer selection, anything from 80-100 is in the consideration set (with more bias towards positions with less players who’ve reached that plateau, and anything under 80 isn’t a consideration except for relief pitchers or special cases (e.g., an untimely death, Negro-league players, a player lost peak time to serve in the war, etc.)

3) Hall of Fame Position Representativeness - While WAR takes position into account for single seasons, it cannot adjust for the fact that certain positions (notably Catcher and Middle Infield) are tougher to have long careers than other positions (notably corner OF/1B/DH).  My general POV is that if a player was in the top 10 at his position in the past 60 years (1945-2005), he warrants Hall of Fame consideration even if their stats look lower than average.

Players On The Razzball 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot (see links for posts on each player):

Players Considering For The Future

* Yes, I’m shocked how high John Olerud scores on peak-adjusted WAR.  He had two 8.0+ WAR seasons which is two more than the following 1B/DHs on the ballot Rafael Palmiero, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez, Harold Baines, and Tino Martinez.  This is because John Olerud had a much better OBP than anyone on this list (other than Edgar Martinez) and was a more valuable glove than anyone else during his peak years (about equal with Palmeiro and Mattingly).   The AVG/OBP/SLG and OPS+ for those 8.0+ WAR years were:  .363/.473/.599 in 1993 with a 186 OPS+ and a .354/.447/.551 with a 163 OPS+ in 1998.   Mattingly never cleared .400 OBP once in his career, Palmeiro did it once (a pot-friendly .420 in 1999), and McGriff did it twice (.403 and .400).  Neither of the three had a higher OPS+ than those two Olerud years.

Players Who Fall Short

This is the 5th post in a series on the 2011 Hall of Fame ballot.  My first post on Jeff Bagwell covered the criteria I am using for analyzing HOF players.  The next three posts covered Bert Blyleven, the middle infielder trio of Alan Trammell, Barry Larkin, and Roberto Alomar, and Edgar Martinez.

The next two players on my ballot would be Tim Raines and Mark McGwire.

I covered both these players previously – Raines as part of a leadoff hitter review and McGwire as part of a review of power hitters.  I’ll leverage some of that information for this post as well as incorporate the WAR-based analysis like I did in the previous posts.

Tim Raines

WAR Totals:  94.6 Peak-Adjusted WAR – 64.6 career WAR + 6 All-Star seasons (+30 – defined as 5.0-7.9 WAR)

Stats:  23 seasons,  3,977 Times on Base (2,605 hits, 1,330 BB), 1,571 Runs, 170 HR, 980 RBI, 808 SB, .294 AVG / .384 OBP / .425 SLG / 123 OPS+

162 Game Stats:  102 R /11 HR/63 RBI/52 SB

Career Excellence

In my previous post, I focused on how Tim Raines was arguably one of the top 5 leadoff hitters post-WWII (among retired players) given his 1) high OBP for a non-HR threat (.385) and 2) his fantastic baserunning (808 SBs at an amazing 84.7%).

Post-WWII Leadoff-Type Hitters With Greater Peak-Adjusted WAR Than Raines*
Rickey Henderson (198.1 peak-adjusted WAR / 113.1 WAR)
Joe Morgan (178.5 peak-adjusted WAR / 103.5 WAR)
Rod Carew (119.1 peak-adjusted WAR / 79.1 career WAR)
Pete Rose (115.3 peak-adjusted WAR / 75.3 career WAR)
Paul Molitor (109.8 peak-adjusted WAR / 74.8 career WAR)
Tony Gwynn (98.4 peak-adjusted WAR / 68.4 career WAR)
Craig Biggio (96.2 peak-adjusted WAR / 66.2 career WAR)
Tim Raines (94.6 peak-adjusted WAR / 64.6 career WAR)

*Note:  Ichiro certainly will be in this consideration set once he retires.  Johnny Damon (.355 OBP) and Carl Crawford (.337 OBP) fall short.  I’ve excluded Wade Boggs since he isn’t your prototypical leadoff hitter given his speed.

All of the above are either in the Hall of Fame, will be in the HOF (Biggio), or would be if they didn’t gamble on baseball.  Richie Ashburn (93 / 58), Lou Brock (54.1 / 39.1),  and Luis Aparicio (59.9 / 49.9) are Hall of Fame leadoff types that fall below Tim Raines both in peak-adjusted and career WAR.

The best comparison of a recent HOF nominee is Tony Gwynn (elected in his first year on the ballot with 97.6% of the votes)  Tony Gwynn has three apparent superior achievements vs. Tim Raines:  1) he has reached 3,000 hits (3,141 vs. Raines’ 2,605), 2) he has 8 batting titles (15 top 10s) vs. Raines’ 1 batting title (4 top 10s), and 3) his career average is much better (.338 vs. .294).

All of these achievements are minimized or neutralized if we take walks into the equation.  Raines has a big advantage in Walks (1,330 vs. 790) that actually gives him the advantage in times on base over Gwynn (3,977 to 3,955).  While Gwynn was dominant in Batting Average, they are much closer in OBP.  Gwynn edges Raines .388 to .385 in career OBP and has 10 top 10s (1 OBP title) to Raines’ 7 top 10s (1 OBP title).

Gwynn was the more valuable hitter of the two – as evidenced by a higher OPS+ (132 vs. 123) and this is reflecting in his batting WAR of +434 runs vs. Raines’s +306.  Raines made up most of this difference on the basepaths as his baserunning was +121 runs above replacement vs. Gwynn’s +38 runs.  Surprisingly, both players ranked as about average fielders but Gwynn comes up slightly ahead (+5 vs. -8 runs).

In the end, Raines was of near equal value to Gwynn.  The huge difference in HOF support is just a reflection that AVG and Hits are overvalued by voters (vs. OBP and Times on Base).

If we focus on just WAR for outfielders, Tim Raines ranks 24th all-time in peak-adjusted WAR for retired players (14th for post-WWII) just behind Tony Gwynn and ahead of the following post-WWII OFs:  Richie Ashburn (93 / 58), Dave Winfield (89.7 / 59.7), Andre Dawson (77 / 57), Enos Slaughter (74.1 / 54.1), Ralph Kiner (70.9 / 45.9), Jim Rice (61.5 / 41.5), Kirby Puckett (59.8 / 44.8), and Lou Brock (54.1 / 39.1).

Peak Excellence

Tim Raines had 6 All-Star seasons (5.0+ WAR) during his peak years of 1983-1992.  His MVP support was a little lower than he deserved – he had 7 top 10 WAR seasons and only 3 top 10 MVP seasons.  This isn’t surprising since 1) MVP voting skews towards power hitters (Rickey Henderson led the league in WAR 4 times and had 9 top 10s but only 1 MVP and 6 top 10s), 2) MVP voting skews towards bigger markets, and 3) MVP voting skews towards teams that win pennants.

Raines’ six seasons of 5.0+ WAR are greater than Tony Gwynn (5), Dave Winfield (4), Andre Dawson (4), Jim Rice (4), and Kirby Puckett (3).

Verdict

Tim Raines was a more valuable OF than most of the recent OF nominations.  His lack of support to date is more a reflection of the traditional valuing of players via ‘baseball card stats’ vs. more advanced statistics that give credit to other skills like baserunning and OBP.  I think he’ll eventually get in but it will take a couple more years.

Fun (and potentially fictional) facts

1) In 1982, Raines snorted an estimated $40,000 in cocaine.  During the Pittsburgh drug trials in 1985, Raines testified that he only slid head first to not break the vial he kept in his back pocket which he didn’t want to risk stashing in his locker.  In a dubiously unrelated note, his nickname was ‘Rock’.  He could become the third player in the HOF to have acknowledged cocaine use joining Paul Molitor and Mordecai ‘One Nostril’ Brown.

2) Tim’s son (Tim Raines Jr.) is one of 29 pairs of Sr./Jr. father/son pairs to both play in the majors.  While Ken Griffey’s kid was by far the best, the list after that is surprising murky (Sandy Alomar, Jose Cruz, and Gary Matthews are in the next three).  Tim Raines Jr. only managed 160 ABs but that was ten times more than Pete Rose Jr. (16 ABs).

3) The Montreal strip club Fleur de Sex named a lap dance after Tim Raines which became a favorite for guests who needed to get home really quick.  This proved much more popular than the ‘Andre Dawson’ (later renamed to ‘Vladimir Guerrero’) table dance where an older dancer would limp around until guests handed them money to stop and become a designated sitter.

Mark McGwire

WAR Totals:  98.1 Peak-Adjusted WAR – 63.1 career WAR + 7 All-Star seasons (+35 – defined as 5.0-7.9 WAR)

Stats:  16 seasons,  2,943 Times on Base (1,626 hits, 1,317 BB), 1,167 Runs, 583 HR, 1,414 RBI, 8 SB, .263 AVG / .394 OBP / .588 SLG / 162 OPS+

162 Game Stats:  101 R /50 HR/122 RBI/1 SB

Career Excellence

There’s not much to say about McGwire that hasn’t been said.  He really only did two things (hit HRs and walk) but he did them very well.

His 98.1 peak-adjusted WAR is 6th among 1Bs retired since 2005 – below Gehrig, Foxx, Bagwell, Mize, and McCovey.  This is all-driven by HRs and walks as he was a below average runner (-19 runs vs. replacement) and fielder (-30 runs vs. replacement) even for a 1B.

He also had a relatively short career (7,660 plate appearances) – the median among HOFers is 8,960 (or approximately 2.5 more seasons).  He falls into a category of players I’d call ‘slugger’ that seem more prone to short careers because they are reliant on ‘old man skills‘ (power and batting eye) and have nothing to fall back on as their bat speed slows.  Below is a list of Hall of Famers who generally only contributed with power and possibly batting eye (i.e., average to below average defense and running).

McGwire’s HR per Plate Appearance is best of this group.  More impressively, his OPS+ is best – normalizing for era and park as some of these players didn’t play in hitter-friendly eras.  His OBP is only bested 3 of the 8 HOFers as McGwire’s good eye helped balance his low AVGs.  In fact, his HR/PA is the highest of all-time – besting Babe Ruth (6.7%) and Barry Bonds (6.0%).  His OPS+ is 11th with the only post-WWII players on the list being Ted Williams (190), Barry Bonds (181), Mickey Mantle (172), and Albert Pujols (172).  Among the players that McGwire’s OPS+ surpasses are: Willie Mays (155), Hank Aaron (155), and Stan Musial (159).  This is more impressive than the fact he is 11th on the all-time HR list since his OPS+ would adjust for the fact he played during the ‘steroid era’ where there were more HRs hit than in most other eras.

Peak Excellence

McGwire had 7 All-Star seasons of 5.0+ WAR.  His highest was his 70 HR / .470 OBP season in 1998 when he reached 7.2 WAR.  Only four first basemen had more (Gehrig, Foxx, Bagwell, Mize).

Verdict

McGwire is definitely not the most well-rounded player ever but he was a phenomenal power hitter whose batting eye led to an above-average OBP.  If steroids are taken out of the equation, he’s a rather easy decision.

Fun (and potentially fictional) facts

First, we need to qualify my Hall of Fame. There are players in there that don’t belong, in my opinion (Bruce Sutter, Lloyd Waner, Bill Mazeroski, the list goes on). So I’m more an elitist, purist, pick-the-word-for-baseball-snob. I’m voting for the people, in my eyes, that are no-brainers. I want an idealized Baseball Hall of Fame. I don’t want borderline people there. So with that in mind, here are my selections for 2008 induction.

1. Mark McGwire – He did steroids, andro, rubbed Moises Alou’s urine on his hands… Yes, he did all of that. But he was an absolute monster during the years when it’s safe to say everyone was juicing or impossible to prove anyone wasn’t juicing. There were a few years in there when Marge Schott was probably juicing — God Bless her racist soul. So, all things considered, how do you leave out Mark McGwire? He should be in already, you puritans. Now go churn your butter!

2. Bert Blyeven – His case has been made to the point of over saturation. If you’d like, check out this, this or just watch Bert drop the F-bomb a few times:

3. Goose Goosage – He was the Mariano Rivera of his day. Frankly, he was way more dominant than Sutter. Throwing out his first four seasons where the teams he played for tried him as a starter, he’d have a 2.55 ERA in 1366.1 innings. Um, that’s pretty good. He’s a Hall of Famer. Don’t believe me, I’m sure opposing hitters will attest to it.That’s it for my votes. I’d let Raines wait a few years then reconsider him. Trammel, Murphy, Dawson and Lee Smith were good players, sometimes great, but they’re not Hall of Famers. Let’s put it this way, did anyone ever watch Alan Trammel and say, “Now there’s a Hall of Famer”? Or at least anyone outside of Detroit and sober?