Fantasy Baseball Advice

Here at Razzball, besides doling out fantasy baseball advice, we also host a contest to field the worst fantasy baseball team.  The worst fantasy baseball league signups are just about at capacity, but if you’re finding us late in the preseason, you might still be able to get in, or not.  I really have no idea.  That’s Rudy’s department.  But I’m in one of these leagues, so I thought I’d share with you my fantasy baseball worst top 20 list.  When I did my worst fantasy baseball rankings, it took far longer than for my other leagues.  You literally have to change every single default ranking (except Howie Kendrick who was about 150 regularly and turned out to be about the same after reranking– there’s always one, I tell ya!).  Just a few words about these schmohawks, catchers are all bad, excluding about 5 guys, so there’s no reason to grab a catcher early.  But, even with that said, I couldn’t lower Kendall past 10th overall.  He’s just too awfully good.  Also, there were no pitchers in my top 75.  Again, there are so many terribly terrific pitchers, it was hard to move Carlos Silva up.  Though, I really wanted to.  Finally, just because someone is in my best worst fantasy baseball top 20, it doesn’t mean I absolutely hate them.  Steals aren’t counted, so Bourn, Taveras, etc. are invaluably bad.  Anyway, here’s my fantasy baseball worst top 20:

Because Casey Kotchman is most noteworthy (in my eyes) for having the longest known case of mononucleosis, it makes sense he’d be considered a sleeper.  Only, not necessarily, a fantasy baseball sleeper.  More like a Prince Valium one.  After the trade to the Braves last year, Casey Kotchman hit 2/20/.237.  “Write him off as a once interesting prospect that never reached his potential,” says some random crotchety old baseball scout.  I hear ya, random old baseball crotchety scout, but I find something making me keep come back to him.  Sorta like my man-wood for Alex J. Gordon.  Maybe I can’t let a bad thing die.  This would explain every previous relationship that I’ve ever been in prior to the current one.  So what is it that excites me about Casey Kotchman in 2009 fantasy baseball?

In 373 ABs for the Angels last year, Kotchman hit 12/54/.287 before taking a dump with the Tomahawks.  Now whether his numbers plunged with the Braves because he wasn’t happy with the trade or because he wasn’t familiar with the NL pitchers, I’m not sure.  For someone who lost nine months of his life to a kissing disease that high schoolers rebound from after two weeks, anything is possible.  Either way, he is more of the hitter we saw pre-All-Star Break with the Angels than he was on the Braves.  He had a .325 average in the minors with Jason Kendall-esque power.  Kotchman pounds the ball into the ground way too much to be any sort of real power threat. (And he doesn’t have the speed to make all of those grounders worthwhile.)  I’d put Kotchman’s 2009 projections being near 70/16/85/.285/2.  Numbers that make him very comparable to James Loney or other first baseman sleeper Kendry Morales.  I know, it’s not a ringing endorsement, but considering Loney is near the top 20 for 1st basemen and Kotchman is being drafted with the likes of Kevin Millar and Lyle Overbay, Kotchman has sleeper potential.  So, let’s qualify how excited I am about Casey Kotchman.  Not really that excited.  If Mark Grace and Sean Casey had a baby, it’d look like Casey Kotchman.  How’s that for the least enthusiastic sleeper post ever?  You’re welcome!

Remember the blonde chick from the The Real World:  Hawaii, who, like, totally fell for Colin?  She was the cute girl with the young grandmother body.  You know who I’m talking about?  Cool.  Yeah, she’s not Kendry Morales.  Kendry Morales is the doode that the Angels are putting in as their starting 1st baseman.  Joly Hesus!  A prospect that is going to be playing 1st for an AL team that scores runs like an NL team!  How did you miss that, right?  Pretty easily.  He’s sizz-ucked in his limited time in the majors.  In 127 games in the Majors, he’s sitting on a career line of 12/45/.249 with no speed.  If you were a Benihana chef, you’d cut the tail of those numbers and flip ‘em into your hat.  So what is it that I like about Kendry Morales that makes him a 2009 fantasy sleeper?

Opportunity knocks, Dana Carvey!  This spring Kendry Morales is going to get a chance to prove his minor league numbers are no fluke.  In the last 6 years, Morales has hit .337 with a .393 OBP through Cuban leagues and the minors.  In Triple-A, he has 317 ABs and hit .341 with 15 HRs and a .377 OBP.  At some point, Morales’s eye should translate to the major league level, or at least one would hope.  Unfortunately, he won’t have 1st base eligibility until he plays some games at 1st in April, but he should get the eligibility soon enough.  He’s not going to explode for power suddenly.  20 home runs seems to be about his ceiling.  So I guess he’s boring the big boy pants off of you.  The only difference between Conor Jackson and Kendry Morales could be 7 steals.   For a guy that is going undrafted in lots of leagues, Kendry Morales is a solid AL-Only fantasy sleeper and an endgame target in mixed leagues if you need average and some power.

Usually I wait until the 1st of every month to go over who’s closing where and who’s backing them up.  You know, the Donkey-Corn/Brain Freeze/$12 Salad post.  See, you are familiar with my work.  Great, I love how you do whatever you do too.  Being in the heart of fantasy baseball draft season, my diploma from The College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston says I must do some early closer updates for 2009 fantasy baseball.  I’m not going to mention guys who are completely safe as of right now.  One generalization before I get to these closer schmohawks.  You want anyone getting saves.  Yes, you do.  Trust me.  You may think Lindstrom will return in 2 weeks and be fine getting 25 saves this year.  You may be right.  But if Leo Nunez starts the season as the closer, there’s just as good a chance that he keeps the job all year.  Last year, you swore Chad Cordero would get the job back from Rauch and there was no reason to grab Big Jon.  You swore Huston Street would take back the job from Ziegler.  You also missed out on good closers.  Anyway, here’s some closers to watch for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Matt Lindstrom – Strained rotator cuff.  I would still put him on my bench because he could bounce right back.  Or not…

Leo Nunez – Could easily end up with 35 saves or 5.  There’s the fun!

Trevor Hoffman – The Hoff did a slo-mo jog to the trainer’s room where he was diagnosed with a strained right oblique.  I think an oblique is the thing the monkeys are worshipping in 2001: A Space Odyssey.  Not sure.  Hoffman’s old and this could be a recurring issue.  I think he’ll be fine for the season, but if you want to plan accordingly…

Carlos Villanueva – Could be the replacement, but he has no closer experience.  He only has really-horrible-so-far-in-spring-training experience.  He may have the job of mop-up man if he can’t get his spring training act together.  Which leaves…

Todd Coffey – T.C. Odd Offey might be the guy right now for Holds and Vulture Saves.

Carlos Marmol – Since back in November I’ve been saying Piniella will go with the crappy, experienced closer over the lights out MR.  I still think Marmol is draftable in every league.  Like after 10PM at Casa de Grey, Marmol is lights out.

Kevin Gregg – Funny thing happened on the way to being a junky middle reliever, homeboy looks like he could be a junky closer.  The catch, Gregg is only good if he’s getting saves.  So who do you draft?  Both, if they’re at the right spot.  When Gregg has 15 saves in May and you trade him for Ryan Zimmerman, you’ll be happy you drafted him.

Huston Street – See Manny Corpas.

Manny Corpas – See Huston Street.  Now you’re trapped in an infinity circle of Street and Corpas!  At the end of the season, I think Corpas has more saves than Street, that doesn’t mean Corpas gets a single one in April.

Joey Devine – Came into this looooooong spring training with the job wrapped around his finger.  Probably leaving spring training as the setup man.  He’s better suited for the closer role and could slide into closing games by April 15th.  He’s also injury-prone and might not grab the job from…

Brad Ziegler – Should start the season as the A’s closer and could keep the job all year.  Stranger things have happened.

George Sherrill – He’s the closer until he’s not.  Probably sometime in May he cedes to…

Chris Ray – Hey, everyone from the Sherrill ellipsis, good to see you!

Brandon Lyon – Has the job.  No need to back him up.  Yet.

Troy Percival – Same deal as Brandon Lyon.  He’s listed here because that could change if a gust of wind catches his knee the wrong way.

Mark Lowe – The Mariners Moose – Chad Cordero – Miguel Batista – Tyler Walker – David Aardsma – The Mariners Moose moved up the depth chart for this closing job.  Cordero will be closing by late-May and collect 20 saves; stash him on your bench.  Grab Lowe for the ten saves he could provide.

Chris Perez – It really seems like Perez slept with LaRussa’s daughter or something.  In fairness, Perez is not exactly winning the hearts and minds of the Cards coaches.

Ryan Franklin – 75% chance he gets the job.  Before you explode in the comments, I agree, Franklin’s not better than Perez or Motte.  You tell that to LaRussa.  Sometimes experience beats out skill set.

Jason Motte – Has an outside shot at the Cards job.  Don’t sleep on Motte!  Unless, of course, you’re drowsy and he gives you a knee to rest on.

You know what burns me up?  Fire? Yes, random italicized voice, but something else too.  Three weeks ago, ESPN threw out trash like this, “Hamels could be one of the top-5 starters in most leagues now that questions about his durability and moxie have passed. Invest with confidence.”  Three weeks ago?!  Now, today they say, “Given (Hamels’s) injury history and the combination of an increased workload and long season, Hamels has a significant amount of risk when you consider his lofty place among the elite starting pitchers on the draft board this spring.”  That’s so annoying.  Almost as annoying as Bud Selig now getting upset at people who took steroids.  Like you didn’t know, Bud.  C’mon!  The other day I talked with Rudy — we talk, ya’ll! — and I was saying to him there’s one pitcher I probably won’t own this year.  That’s Cole Hamels.  The innings increase worried me.  The K/9 dropping in 2008 had me a bit buggered.  I liked that he gave up less home runs, but it wasn’t enough.  I wouldn’t own him.  On February 1st, I said, “(Even considering the good things about Hamels, it) does not mean he’ll be on any of my teams in 2009.”  In my top 100 post, I wrote, “Even Philly phans are worried about the extra innings. “  And that’s me quoting and quoting and linking to myself!  Now there’s word of Hamels having a sore elbow.  This is bad news.  I can’t stress this enough.  Okay, maybe I could’ve cap that last sentence, but you don’t need me to yell at you, do you?  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for fantasy baseball:

J.R. Towles – There goes that opp.  Pudge signed a one year deal with the Astros.  Wait, what about Humberto Something Or Other?!  He had a future, I tell ya.

Ivan Rodriguez – Do all the kids out there know Pudge isn’t meant to be an ironic nickname?  Just because the Astros signed this schmohawk doesn’t mean you should.  Ever.  He’s C to the Rap.

Ryan Braun – Same injury that slowed in September has returned.  I think he’ll be fine, but it’s enough to knock him below Miggy and Sizemore on your draft sheets.  Wait, I already him after them on my top 100.  Hey, I’m a fortune teller!

Manny Ramirez – Aggravating his hamstring while aggravating his owners.  He’ll play fine when he wants to.  Read:  July, it has a great ending.

Matt Lindstrom – Seriously, get on the Leo Nunez bandwagon before someone else does.  You think this is nothing, but you thought it was nothing when Jon Rauch replaced Chad Cordero last year.

Justin Duchscherer – Let’s see if we got this right, Dooksheer is hurt?  No way!  I think he might start 5 games all year.  I’m not exaggerating.  I said this more or less over a month ago in the top 60 starters post.  Berry might have ESPN, but I got ESP.  Natch!

Vernon Wells – Good ol’ VW thinks he’ll be ready on Opening Day.  Here’s what he’ll say sometime around May 15th, “It’s just a mild strain.  I’ll be back in 15 days.”  Here’s what he’ll say two weeks after that, “It’s not healing how I would’ve hoped.  I think I should be back by the All-Star Break.”  After the All-Star Break, Ricciardi goes on record with, “We hope to have Vernon back by August.”  In August, Vernon returns for a final solid month before pulling his oblique.

Joey Devine – Devine’s nursing something… Not a baby giraffe from what I can gather.  Brad Ziegler seems to have this locked up for Opening Day.

Huston Street/Manny Corpas – It may come down to the final days to decide the closer.  I think Corpas ends up with more saves on the year because Street will get injured even if he secures the job.  In other news, Billy Beane has some AIG stock he’s trying to unload.

Jeff Samardzija – He’s done with that whole starting business.  Until Harden gets hurt.  May!  On the for realz, I wouldn’t own Samardzija in any league.  Not right now at least.

Shawn Hill – Like a two year old’s poo, Hill’s looking solid so far.  I’m telling you, if he can stay healthy he could be a huge sleeper.  But you do what you do.  What, I’m gonna beg?  Nah, Charlie.  Not me.