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Member when you drafted Ricky Nolasco in the preseason?  You guys had high hopes for each other.  You figured he’d strikeout 200 in, like, a game and he thought you’d change your boxers occasionally.  You thought he’d have a low 3 ERA.  He thought you’d stop hiding your bitten fingernails behind the couch.  Three months later, there’s been some disappointment.  There was an abuse of trust.  He’s currently showing a 4.55 ERA and a lower K-rate than usual.  You’re wearing the same boxers with lobsters on them, trying to convince yourself those are butter stains.  Conservatively, in the top 100 for the 2nd half, I gave Nolasco a line of 4-4/3.60/1.20/90.  In 2008, his 2nd half line was 5-4/3.29/1.00/98.  In 2009, 7-2/4.39/1.13/105. Right now, Nolasco’s xFIP is 3.84 to his 4.55 ERA.  His biggest problem thus far has been his homers allowed.  They’ve been sky high.  Literally.  His Ks have been down this year, but it doesn’t look like a velocity issue, looks more like a location thing.  Even with his Ks down, he still has a 7.64 K/9, which is equal with Greinke.  Don’t trade the farm for Nolasco, but I’d send a bad egg or two for him.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Chris Perez – If Kerry Wood gets traded, here’s what I expect.  Wood pitches in the 8th inning for his new team and gives up the lead.  By the fifth time that happens, his new team relegates him to mop up duty.  Then Wood tries to be a starter in the offseason.  Looks dominating in Spring Training and people start to think he’s rediscovered his old magic.  I warn people to stay away, but there’s always one sucker in every 12 team league and he’s drafted.  Then he gets hurt in his third start and says he might not ever pitch again.  Finally, him and Mark Prior start a Pay Back Squad for every pitcher who’s ever been overworked.  Telling anyone who will listen “PBS pledges some hurt.”  Unfortunately, they’re sued by the real PBS and, using the precedent from the WWE/WWF case, they’re forced to change the name to the Pay Back Guys, costing them millions in bumper stickers and t-shirts.  Or maybe Wood is just traded and does fine in middle relief.  Either way, Chris Perez would take over for Wood.

Jason Frasor – If someone would trade for Kerry Wood, someone’s gotta be desperate enough for Kevin Gregg, right?  Yeah, maybe not, but it’s a possibility.

Tyler Clippard – Unless Clippard turns into Mr. Bungle, he steps in if Capps is traded.  Could be Storen, but I think the Nats will let Storen continue to build his confidence and begin his days of closing next spring.  If anything, it might be a timeshare between Storen and Clippard in September.

Drew Storen – Read directly above, then ask yourself, “What the hell does Grey know anyway?”

Juan Gutierrez – If the Diamondbacks actually convert a clean save, I predict Kirk Gibson will jog around the bases pumping his fist.

Chad Qualls – See 1/8th of an inch above.  As for the question, “Who’s the Diamondbacks closer?”  The Diamondbacks don’t know.

Mike Gonzalez – I’ve been telling you to own him for the last few weeks.  Don’t believe me, search the site.

Asdrubal Cabrera – He’s due back in about a week.  He’ll probably be slotted in at the top of the Indians lineup, steal 10 bases, hit a few homers and bat around .290.  No reason why he should be on waivers in any leagues.  A’la Cher from Clueless, “AS-drubal.”

Gordon Beckham – Hitting over .500 in his last 7 games and he was just traded away by yours truly.  That, my Friends of Razzball (FOR), is a recipe for success.  That and a pinch of coriander.

Chris Davis – Could hit 5 homers in a week and be owned everywhere in a blink of an eye.  My suggestion is for you to own him before he goes off (though it would make more sense to say ‘before he goes on’).

Michael Pineda – Stephen just took a surgical tool to Michael Pineda.  I’ll add that Pineda is pretty raw at this point if he does get called up.  Outside of AL-Only leagues, I’d tread very carefully.  Or vewy cawefuwwy, if you’re Elmer Fudd.

Edinson Volquez – How is he owned in only 16% of ESPN leagues?  Have almost 85% of ESPN leagues been abandoned already?  Want more on my Edinson fantasy.  Click that doohickeymajig.

SELL

Brennan Boesch – There’s an interesting phenomenon with fantasy.  If a guy comes out of nowhere and outproduces any expectations, people are more apt to hold onto him. They have a special affection for this player.  Maybe you can ask him over for Leftover Thursdays.  Since Boesch stepped on the big league field, he’s played over his head.  Let’s play “Pick Out The Wrong Number.”  In May, he hit 3 homers.  In June, he hit 8 homers.  In July, he’s yet to hit one.  I know you gots love for Boesch, but I think the best might be behind him.  I recently traded Boesch for Bourn because I needed steals.  I’d explore what you can get.

Torii Hunter – Last year, Hunter went 5/5 in the 2nd half.  For those who aren’t good at figuring out people’s ages, Hunter was younger last year.  On Bill James’ Speed Scale, Hunter has gone from 5.0 in 2009 to 2.9 this year (5 is average).  He’s already been caught stealing 10 times, that’s more than he was caught in any other season.  I’m not saying trade Hunter for a bag of Pepperoni Pizza Combos, but I’d listen to offers.

From Around The Web

  1. Clippard’s last 30 days: 10 IP, 0-3, 9K/7BB, 19 H, 12 ER (10.80 ERA, 2.60 WHIP). 3 holds, 2 blown saves. I’d say he’s been Mr. Bungle for some time now.

  2. You’d be pretty raw if someone had just taken a surgical tool to you too.

  3. alex says:
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    Who do i start this week at first Troy Glaus, Garrett Jones or Chris Davis?
    I know not great selections but this is a deep league where i lost Kendry…..

  4. Huskers95 says:
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    12 team mixed H2H keeper

    Asdrubal, Torres, and Chris Davis are out there on waivers, drop Alexei, Laporta, or Borbon for anyone in that trio?

  5. T-BZA says:
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    Derek Lee OR

    our boy Crash Davis in a 10 team mixed CI spot for ROS?

    Thanks in advance.

  6. Phil says:
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    I have Reyes, need to grab a SS for the next few days(or longer). I’m down to two: Yunel or Starlin?

  7. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    im holding perez in 2 leagues,and as for boesch,its time to move him,volquez (fingers crossed)could be real good if he can get some stamina built up

  8. JaHerer22 says:
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    Just got offered A-Rod and CarGo for Youk and J-Up in a 12 team mixed w/ 8 keepers. I’m loathe to give up J-Up but my team is struggling and I feel like fresh blood. Thoughts on the deal?

  9. NockedAHoma says:
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    added Davis & Beckham (filling in for Utley) in the last week. Hope they both are ready for prime time.

    trying to trade Napoli since his full-time playing days look to be toast. Two out-of-it teams in my keeper league have Mauer & McCann that can’t be kept. I could probably (hoepfully) work them into a larger deal. Does it matter which one? Aren’t they going to be fairly similar in 2nd half?

    Mmmm, Combos…

  10. Earl Battey says:
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    I’d like to add Volquez, but would need to drop Wandy to do so. The league has a games started limit that might give me trouble, so I don’t really need both. Which one for the rest of the year?

    Also, do you like Sean-Rod, MMD or Beckham best in a 10 team non-keeper?

    Thanks.

  11. Hans says:
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    Hunter also got hurt last year which attributed to his 5/5 caimpagn in the 2nd half…If someone is selling the cleanup hitter in the #9 offense in MLB baseball, I’m buying…giddyup.

  12. Hans says:
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    @Jaherrera I would take that deal…Next years ranks will have Cargo ahead of Justin Downside IMHO….Cargo just needs to have a little more plate discipline then I could see a batting title in his future.

  13. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Huskers95: I’d lose Borbon and LaPorta for Davis and Torres.

    @JaHerer22: Looks like tomato-tomahto more or less. Don’t see it really making a huge difference.

    @NockedAHoma: I’d go for McCann, but they’re the same difference.

    @Earl Battey: Wandy… Stewart…

    @BookieBob: Yum.

  14. Hans says:
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    @Greey Would you trade Hunter, Andrus, and Oswalt for HanRam. Lineup would then look like this.

    C: Mauer
    1B: Howard.
    2B: Cano.
    SS: HanRam
    3B: Youk
    OF: Kemp
    OF: Cargo
    OF: McCutchen
    OF: Adam Jones.
    UTIL A-Gon.

    My pitching is slop obviously, but I stream to take half the categories every week and let my bats do the talking. 10 team mixed H2H.

  15. rey mysterio jr says:
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    Drop bartlett for asdrubal?

  16. Howard says:
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    @Grey Am currently holding Simon in a closer role and Guttierrez and Qualls are on waivers. Who do you think would be a better SAGNOF choice? Simon’s been racking em up lateley that is WHEN Baltimore has a lead! My brain is frozen!

  17. rey mysterio jr says:
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    Drop bartlett for asdrubal?

    Drop ian stewart for asdrubal?

    2 separate leagues

  18. Nuke LaDouche says:
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    Grey would you drop Gaby Sanchez for Fowler? Util spot. I could also drop Byrd or Glaus. I figure Glaus may heat back up though and I kinda like Byrd helping to offset the average damage Reynolds does. Thoughts?

  19. @Grey: I traded Beckham myself right before the recent string of competence. No regrets, Grey! Beckham drafters of the world must stand united in their hate, because otherwise the terrorists win!

    Sorry for the rhetoric. I just moved to the Midwest, and I’m trying to get into the political swing of things. I bet Chicago would make me mayor on an anti-Beckham platform.

  20. Seequinn says:
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    @Grey: Come on now, you gotta at least mention that Hunter worked that 2nd half 5/5 playing 42 games, to 77 in the first half. It’s chicken-egg reasoning with regards to age, but the slower 2nd wasn’t because he was in the lineup and tiring out.

  21. danimal35 says:
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    S-Rod or Gordy?

  22. NockedAHoma says:
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    the McCann owner would want Loney as a keeper, but could send back Quentin. Worth it?

    Napoli/Loney for McCann/Quentin? I have Pujols, Howard & CKDavis as 1B and CI already.

  23. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @HOLLA(R): Ha… Yeah, you probably needed to run prior to us trading him.

    @Seequinn: Yeah, or I could’ve also mentioned just say he’s made it through two 150+ game seasons in his career.

  24. Maybe I’m just being hopeful since I own Gregg, but Frasor and Downs actually might be more likely to go, since both are owed more than Gregg right now and Gregg would come at a steeper price. Frasor and Downs are also free after next year while Gregg’s contract has options of $4.5MM in 2011 or $8.75MM for 2011-12 or a k750 buy out next year.

    Jays might just keep him around to close next year if he continues to save games, rather than go shopping for another closer, no?

    I hope I’m right. I really don’t want to play the closer game at this point.

  25. chrisbenson says:
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    in looking at your above comments…you think j-up and car-go will be similar going forward? (i ask b/c in a keeper i have cargo and could get j-up prob)….would you do that deal?

    i havent found a reason to not like gonzalez though, and j-up seems like K’s will be an issue. lol

  26. Back to Minors says:
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    Kendrick or Beckham for 2B, HTH from here going forward?

  27. Seequinn says:
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    @Grey: And as a Hunter owner having trouble finding buyers, I will say that this is the third! *sigh*

  28. @Grey: Fair enough. Another missed opportunity.

  29. Firstly, thanks for sharing the disturbing Braun video. The tank tops, 70’s gym shorts, tube socks, and Farrah (r.i.p.) hairdoos were quite special. The intentional/unintentional conflict is all in the perception of the viewer I guess. & Braun’s portrayal of the hero, outstanding. Think that HR could count for any of his starving owners?
    Anyhow,..with Jose Lopez @ 2B/SS, I was hoping for a trade to Phili. If that aint happenin’, or even if it might, would you sub with Beckham (already have Rios, Alexei, & Quentin!) or hold Lopez and stash Roberts or Assdribble as his eventual replacement? Thanks, happy weekend.

  30. royce! says:
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    For those hurting for SB, Eric Young Jr. is finally rehabbing in AA, so keep an eye on him.

  31. Dr. Orlando Schadenfreude says:
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    Kelly Johnson or Ian Stewart for the rest of the year? Are you worried at all about Kelly getting traded?

  32. fitz says:
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    H2H for Util spot

    Lind, Ortiz or Beckham ?

  33. fitz says:
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    Aramis is in beast mode right now.

  34. Doot Doot says:
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    boesch for pierre?

  35. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Doot Doot: Apples and oranges. Do you need steals? Then Pierre.

  36. Fletch says:
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    @Grey: Who would you drop for Ellsbury…Ortiz, Hunter or Arroyo?

  37. LMack says:
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    Howard homers again today.
    It has begun.

  38. brad says:
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    Boesch for J. Lo make sense? I have OF depth and am a little worried about 2b.

  39. Art Vandelay says:
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    Which would you rather have out of Torres, Nyjer, and Dexter the killer? They all seem about the same to me.

    Also, would you deal Jar-Jar for Bautista? I think Bautista is due for a drop off in power, but I have a lot of pitching and not a lot of faith in Jar-Jar.

  40. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @brad: Sure, it’s fair.

    @Art Vandelay: Fowler… The Jar-Jar trade’s fair, I’d try for someone different than Bautista.

  41. @Grey: I wonder who gets the call if they all go?? My brain hurts thinking about it.

    Imagine you’re a contender and you deal for Gregg. I wouldn’t want him coming anywhere near my lead in a close playoff game. I would imagine Downs being the most attractive piece, since he’s a lefty.

    Hey, anyone going to this Fangraphs sponsored baseball talk in NY on 8/7? I’m going to crawl out of my mom’s basement and hit it – http://fangraphs-efbevent.eventbrite.com/

  42. whatwashethinking? says:
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    should i drop Aaron Hill for Suckakis, errr, Markakis?

  43. alex says:
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    Buster Posey or Kurt Suzuki? rest of the year…..

  44. FYI: Just read on the players respective Yahoo entries that Pagan and Sandoval are both sitting tonight in SF.

  45. royce! says:
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    I found this typo (I assume it’s a typo) funny:

    Rodriguez was scratched from Friday’s lineup due to flooding at this condo on Thursday, Marc Tompkin of the St. Petersburg Times reports.

    I can just imagine him calling up Maddon: “You see, there’s this condo, and it, like, flooded, so I can’t come to work today…”

  46. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @3FingersBrown: Yeah, I wouldn’t want any of those guys traded to my team, but it seems like every year teams get the idea this guy can’t close but he can pitch in the 8th inning. I’m in LA.

    @whatwashethinking?: Sure

    @alex: Posey

    @3FingersBrown: Damn…

  47. mauledbypandas says:
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    Razzballers! trade advice por favor.

    12 team roto, leading ERA, middling in whip and terrible in k/bb

    Mat Latos & Colby Lewis
    for
    Cliff Lee

  48. mauledbypandas says:
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    @3FingersBrown: damn 9AM for that fangraphs things? I might be tempted if I didnt have to work, and it also breaks my no going above 34th street rule except for mets/yankees games.

  49. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: Ha! I also find it funny that he can’t play because of his condo flooding. What’s he making a million this year? I could see if he was making $40,000. Hire someone!

    @mauledbypandas: I’d take Lee. Don’t see why the other owner would do this move now that Latos is on the DL.

  50. Real Tom says:
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    I have Aardsma. Should I pick up League or Perez?

  51. Tom Emanski says:
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    Which ones should I start: Liriano, Gio, Garcia

  52. mauledbypandas says:
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    thanks Grey, pulled the trigger. I figure two guys pitching above their heads is a small price to pay for a known stud.

  53. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tom Emanski: I’m sittin Liriano in a 14 team league because I’m over in IP. I’d start them all though if you’re fine on IP.

    @mauledbypandas: No problem.

  54. @mauledbypandas: It is very early. If I’m not working that day (or the night before) I’ll hit it though. I suppose it gets us home before first pitch at 1PM.

    I feel the same way about going below 34th except for work – or free booze. I usually bypass Manhattan altogether and hang out in my native boro of Queens with the Greeks in Astoria.

  55. Tom Emanski says:
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    Carlos Santana with 2 steals on the year! Gotta say Grey, I’m glad I ignored your initial warnings about Weiters-level production. He’s delivering big.

  56. @mauledbypandas: That’s a sweet move for Lee. Is it a keeper? I wouldn’t want Latos at this point in a redraft.

  57. broadstreetbrawler says:
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    kinsler and oswalt for howard? which side? 10 team, pretty shallow

  58. @Tom Emanski: Nice thing about Smooth (especially if you count OBP) is that even when he’s not bashing, he’s walking.

  59. Tom Emanski says:
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    In 4 games since he came back up, Chris Davis has only 1 K and 2 BBs. Not hitting though. Could he finally be ready to stay up? I’m wondering if I should drop Napoli for him. Word is Nap might get platooned.

  60. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tom Emanski: If you have Santana and Napoli, lose Napoli for Davis. I might need to make a Razzball Constitution with Amendment 1, Thous shalt not carry two catchers.

  61. Fletch says:
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    @Grey: Scherzer = already 90 pitches through 4inn against the Tribe.

  62. @Grey: Definitely the second rule of Razz Club.

    @mauledbypandas: I should say 125th, not 34th. The white folk give me the willies. *smiley face*

  63. Tom Emanski says:
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    @Grey: Good call. Grey has spoken.

    @Fletch: That’s so Scherzer

    I really hate having teams where everyone is above average compared to the rest of the league, but very few great players. I have a bunch of Scherzers, Lirianos, Napolis, Werths, etc. Time to make some 1 for 2, 2 for 3 offers.

  64. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Fletch: That’s his shtick. Him and Kershaw.

    @3FingersBrown: Of course I have Bills, Greinke and Arroyo going tonight and Arroyo’s pitching the best game.

  65. Fletch says:
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    @Grey: Arroyo sure dealing like it’s the 2nd half…how typical. Only 3 base runners through 7 against the Rockies.

  66. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Fletch: Yeah, his pitching looks so hittable too. Just throws a bunch of junk.

  67. Jenkies says:
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    10 team mixed, h2h, non keeper, drop Napoli for Soto?

  68. peter says:
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    @Grey: Billingsley is turning into my 2010 version of my 2009 James Shields. Sigh.

  69. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @peter: Aw geez, don’t say that.

  70. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Snap.

  71. thepizzaman says:
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    Bengie Molina is 225 pounds according to yahoo. Do I need to say more?

  72. @Grey: Jeez Grienke’s been so… average. Had him going tonight in my roto. I’m hopelessly mired in mediocrity in that league. Think I need to unload Bell for a big bat if I can and try to salvage my season…

    WTF happened to Jaime? 3 1/3? I was hoping he’d hang in there and get me a W in h2h. Fortunately my opponent had Bills.

    Hammel impressive again with 10 K’s. He’s been my best after Waino the past 2 months.

    Damn, now it looks like the Panda’s in the lineup *shakes fist at Yahoo for being a fountain of misinformation*

  73. Steamer says:
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    Hey Grey, who do you like best of Josh Johnson, Kershaw & Hanson in a keeper league ?

  74. big o says:
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    bengie gets the cycle !

  75. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    Last night, as I entered my bathroom for my evening ablutions, I noticed that my digital clock read 11:34. As we all know, this is “hEll” when you look at it upside-down, so I immediately assumed, as any rational person would, that my clock had a message it was trying to send me… more news would be coming.

    I immediately looked back at the clock and noticed that it had already changed to 11:35, which is “SEll”. Hmm… so my clock is warning me that I need to “sell” one of my fantasy players or it will mean “hell” for me. Now I just needed to figure out who! I brushed my teeth, took a leak and headed into the bedroom.

    As I laid down, I glanced at the clock in the bedroom which read 11:38… “BEll”. Holy Christ! My clocks are telling me that I will be in “hell” if I do not “sell” Heath “Bell”!

    Go ahead and call me a crazy person… go ahead and hang onto Bell… but when the shizz hits the fan, don’t say I (with help from my fantasy baseball prophet clocks) didn’t warn you.

  76. mr baseball says:
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    They were serving pie in the Bronx and Nick Swisher ordered it

  77. fitz says:
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    He got a triple because Patterson cannot play CF and had the ball hit off the tip of his glove and roll into the 420 triangle of death. The Sox middle relief is just atrocious.

  78. Howard says:
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    Traded Hunter for the Dread Pirate. Good trade? Non-keeper.

  79. @Awesomus Maximus: Wow. I think that’s a sign from the illuminati baseball overlords. I feel a Manchurian Candidate moment coming over me like Reggie in Naked Gun… Must Sell Bell.

  80. vottomatic says:
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    @ grey: i’m in a 10 team auction mixed league w/ keeper. i’m currently in first place and i’m looking at a trade with the last place guy ( his first year).

    i’m looking to propose grandy, julio borbon, and colby rasmus or clay bucholz as a keeper.

    for: ryan howard and roy oswalt

    am i giving up to much or not getting enough back and the money works out for both sides. thanks

  81. pjtres says:
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    grey…does JJ hardy deserve some more attn? he seems to be heating up a bit…but in between his usefulness in MIL is a BUNCH of suck. lol

  82. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @fitz: Ah… Thanks for the explanation!

    @Howard: Yup

    @3FingersBrown: Ha!

    @vottomatic: I’d take Howard’s side. Trade’s fair, not sure how many keepers you have but you might be setting the other team up for a while.

    @pjtres: He doesn’t play in MIL.

  83. ViagraFalls says:
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    @Grey: Is Grandy worth keeping in a lineup anymore? It’s pretty obvious that he is not being the force the Yankees thought he would be, and that lack of production is starting to wear on me. That low BA and lack of…doing much of anything else in that ballpark…Should he be dropped or held?

  84. pjtres says:
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    grey…for the record, i made reference to the time period in between his usefulness in MIL and now.

    but as always, i appreciate your thoughts…so could you answer the question now that you understand i know where he plays??? lol

  85. Robert says:
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    @Grey- I have an outside shot at 1st place in my league. My pitching has been strong. What I lack(greatly) is AVG, runs, and steals. I have J. Johnson, Price, F. Hernandez, Pettitte, Volquez, Scherzer, Cahill, Richard, Hunter. Can I afford to trade Johnson for Cargo and Jenks? Cargo would fill the offensive needs for me, but Johnson is my ace. To lessen the blow of losing Johnson I could pick up Medlen, Mazzaro, C.J. Wilson, Morrow, or Anibal Sanchez.

  86. vottomatic says:
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    @ grey: thanks we can have 2 keepers and i have a ton of guys i got on the cheap( cargo, votto, j-upside, rasmus, bucholz, josh johnson, rios, and prolly someone else i cant think of right now…….. now that im thinking about i drafted pretty god damn good……. ONE GOLD STAR COMING MY WAY!!!!!! thanks again.

  87. Steve says:
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    Where was CQ? His record against Liriano is great.

  88. Ha! Nice job tonight for Rausch – Kazaam! Time to drink myself to sleep and dream of trading Bell.

  89. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @ViagraFalls: Held

    @pjtres: Ah… Yeah, I think I mentioned it yesterday or earlier today that I picked up Hardy to temp in Reyes’ place. So far, he’s been adequate. Might have a 10 homer half in his bat.

    @Robert: Make the trade, grab Medlen.

    @vottomatic: Cool…

    @Steve: Not sure, probably a bruise or something.

    @3FingersBrown: Ha

  90. fitz says:
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    Dan Haren why do you hate my fantasy baseball team so much? :`(

  91. pjtres says:
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    thanks man. i missed it.
    appreciate your thoughts.

  92. peter says:
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    @Grey: Here’s the thing, and it hurts me to do this (REALLY hurts):

    Shields through 7/17/2009: 5-6, 134 IP, 92 K (27 BB), 3.75 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

    Billis through 7/17/2010: 7-5, 99.2 IP, 89 K (36 BB), 4.61 ERA, 1.46 WHIP

    Jai-ya, Richard Lewis.

  93. ViagraFalls says:
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    Is A-Ram trustworthy enough right now to try and ride out his hot bat? Byrd is available, too, but aside from his nice couple days this week, he’s been ice cold. He has a solid BA, but almost no production.

  94. fitz says:
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    @ViagraFalls: Yeah, A-Ram has found himself I would stick with him. He is cutting down on his K’s and has stopped chasing pitches a foot off the plate. I’d stick with him and feel pretty confident about it.

  95. Fletch says:
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    @Grey: Haren and Hunter for J. Santana?

  96. Steve says:
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    Asdrubal over Freddy S, right?

  97. Nuke LaDouche says:
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    Would you drop Jaime Garcia for Medlen at this point Grey? Its feeling like Jaime is really losing his shizz right now.

  98. alex says:
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    Just traded Adam Jones and Vincente Padilla for Greinke and Fowler good deal?

  99. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    RCL league ‘Ones are Good right?’ have completed 24 trades (48 total league trade transaction count/2)–without a single veto. We are having lots of fun. Click on the forums link to see where your league stands (second most is 13, with one league with ZERO trades).

    http://razzball.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=21&t=11334

  100. TheEvilEmpire says:
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    Trade my Boesch, Olivo, and Garrett Jones for his Pujols?

    I have Montero and a slew of OFers. Would use Pujols at 1B/3B (Jones is currently there) since I have Tex at 1B already.

  101. Long Bong Hitters says:
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    Grey, with Edinson coming off the DL today, who do you drop? Carlos Silva or Jamie Garcia?

  102. Donnie Baseball says:
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    Have to drop one of D. Holland, L. Morrison, B. Allen?

  103. Fletch says:
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    @Grey: I got a trade offer…his Swisher/J. Santana for my Haren/T. Hunter. I accepted the trade…what do you think?

  104. ThE sHiT says:
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    @TheEvilEmpire: Thats a nice return 4 a chump dump. I doubt he’ll go 4 it, but if he does, gr8 trade 4 u.

  105. ThE sHiT says:
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    @Grey: Buenos Dias Grey! Gotta wk 2day, but wna get in a ? b4 i shower… looks like Snider is comin back on Monday. Gaston said that he will play and that he was raking b4 he got injured, duh. Still like Robot over Snider? I have Boesch and agree with u that he will slow down. I know i cant trade him cuz my league is retarded, so i wna make sure i have a gd bat 2 replace Boesch should he regress to caca. Other guys on the wire r Beckham, Torres, S-Rod. Thx dude

  106. 1. Why do you think Asdrubal will steal 10 bases? Obviously if he does that makes him a lot more valuable than Alcides but he stole only 1 base this year and stole only 4 bases 2 years ago.

    2. Should I start Volquez today? Colorado is 9th in MLB in runs scored but they’re a little banged up. On the other hand they upgraded their lineup by putting Hawpe at 1B.

  107. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @ThE sHiT: I wouldn’t just yet drop Robot or Boesch to get Snider. Should try and get him on your team though.

    @Frank Kim: He stole 17 bases last year and 20+ in the minors. I wouldn’t start Volquez.

  108. Nathan says:
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    I’d like to drop someone to pick up Edinson Volquez, but not sure who.

    My staff is Ubaldo, Grienke, Hamels, Nolasco, Morrow, Gavin Floyd, Clayton Richard; Soriano, Dotel, A. Simon. With DlR still occupying my DL slot.

    What would you do to grab Edinson?

  109. Nathan says:
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    Also, I’ve been carrying one bench hitter, so I could drop Adam Jones or Michael Bourne also (and commit to playing the other full time).

  110. Howie Met Your Mother says:
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    @Grey:

    Grey, do you prefer Simon or Perez (now that Kerry Wood is off to the DL)?

  111. danimal35 says:
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    had to do some roster manipulation in order to get Volquez off the DL and add Zimmermann to it. In order to pick up Gordy I have to drop Padilla…so basically wondering if I can start Padilla @St Louis or whether I should drop him and pick up Beckham

  112. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @danimal35: I wouldn’t start Padilla in any away games. Grab Beckham.

  113. JackInTheBox says:
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    My Rasmus, Bay or Hart for his Nolasco…which one do you think I should offer/would be fair?

  114. Thanks Grey for recommending I not start Volquez. Would it make any difference to tell you I’m in a 14 team mixed league as opposed to your standard 10 team? I’m a bit excited about his potential.

  115. tHe sHiT says:
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    @Grey: Understood sir. Imma try 2 swing a 2 for 1 deal to open up a roster spot 4 Snider. I get the same feeling 4rm Snider rt now that i got rt b4 he got hot. Got the same feelin bout Beckham b4 i picked him up last yr when he came up…

  116. Terrence Mann says:
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    @Grey: Reyes is my SS. I’ve got Desmond on my bench as my backup MI and have been playing him the last couple days.

    AS-drubal is out there….right now my plan is to wait until Reyes gets back in the lineup and then cut Desmond for AS-drubal.

    Cut Desmond now?

  117. struggler says:
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    Can you rank Morrow, Cecil, Medlen?

    Not sure if you’ve noticed but the Jays schedule is tasty for the next couple of weeks but a disaster the last 2 months.

  118. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @JackInTheBox: Bay, Rasmus or Hart…In that order.

    @Frank Kim: I’d let him start once on my bench in every league except a NL-Only one.

    @tHe sHiT: Cool

    @Terrence Mann: I’d wait until Asdrubal’s back before cutting Desmond.

    @struggler: Medlen, Cecil…

  119. struggler says:
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    @Terrance – I’d advise keeping Desmond to fill-in for Reyes. Who knows if hey’ll actually be in the lineup on Sunday. And if he is, they’ll probably keep pulling this “he only bats vs. righties garbage” so you’ll need to have a backup.

    Grab Asdrubal and slot him in a DL spot until he’s back. They’re saying 30 abs. He’s got 6. I think you’ve got a week.

  120. Nathan says:
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    Marcum or Volquez?

    Thanks!!!!

  121. JackInTheBox says:
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    @Grey: Mucho gracias Grey, that’s how I had it as well. Hart is a bit of a stretch though, so I don’t think I’m going to let the offer go that far.

  122. Terrence Mann says:
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    @struggler: That’s what I would do but I only have one DL spot. Was holding Volquez in that spot until Soo Choo got hurt – and I had to let Volquez go. I ain’t cutting Soo Choo for AS-drubal.

    But thanks for the input.

  123. Mr2Bits says:
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    Grey : Who do I drop to bring Volquez out of the DL? 12 team keeper league, OBP and QS.

    John Buck
    Derrek Lee
    Robinson Canó
    José Bautista
    Álex González
    Chris Young
    Josh Hamilton
    Brett Gardner
    Denard Span
    Corey Hart
    Pablo Sandoval

    DL Víctor Martínez

    R.A. Dickey
    Jaime García
    Joakim Soria
    Neftali Feliz
    Carlos Silva
    Octavio Dotel
    Brad Lidge
    Matt Garza
    Vicente Padilla
    Roy Halladay
    Jon Lester
    Jorge De La Rosa
    Hiroki Kuroda

  124. royce! says:
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    Apparently it’s not if but when (and where) regarding Wigginton’s being traded. Could he end up anywhere and actually have a starting job, or will he only end up in a utility role? I’ve been looking for an excuse to drop him for a while.

  125. royce! says:
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    Also, I’m trying to decide if I should part ways with Billingsley in a 10 team roto. I already have too many SP, and doubt I could get anything worthwhile in a trade for him.

    Some interesting facts from his splits: 31 of his 89 K have been against ARI; he pitches much better during the day (24.2 IP, 26 K, 1.09 ERA) than the night (5.76 ERA, 75 IP, 63 K); and he’s much better away (3.72 ERA) than home (5.44 ERA). I think the smal sample size warning applies here, because, at least as far as his home/road splits are concerned, his road starts have been against SF, STL, ARI, CIN, SDG, PIT, and CHC. @STL an @CIN he got lit up.

    Oh, and batters have an .864 OPS against him during pitches 61-75.

    So… I think I should drop him. Whaddya think?

  126. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Nathan: Volquez…

    @JackInTheBox: No problem.

    @Mr2Bits: Silva

    @royce!: Think he’ll go somewhere that will see him play at least 5 days a week, so he could get a boost depending on where. If he goes to Coors, it’s a boost. Petco, it’s a drop.

    @royce!: Guess it depends on for who, but I imagine in a ten team league, it’s droppable.

  127. GB says:
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    Just traded Manny for Hamels over the break. Whew!

  128. royce! says:
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    @Grey: Right on re: Wigginton, I’ll hold until they move him.

    Re: Bills- I’d probably just use the extra spot to stream players. I could use a boost in ERA and WHIP (thanks in no small part to Bills) and SB. So I would grab good SP (such as Jurrjens, Hunter, Marcum, Wells, Hammel, Cecil), speedy dudes going against bad C/SP combos (Tabata, Stubbs, Patterson, Theriot, Gomez, Fowler), or just RP to bring down my peripherals (too many available to list).

  129. royce! says:
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    @Grey: Now that I look further into Bills, I think I might hang on to him for a bit, and possibly pursue him in my 14 team h2h. His xFIP is actually pretty low for the season (3.88) and for the last 30 days (3.62). His BABIP is high and his strand rate is low (over the last 30, .393 and 63.2, respectively). There are players available with better xFIPs (Wells and Hammel), but they’ve been FAs all year.

    Thanks

  130. Kazmere says:
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    Howdy, Grey! Napoli is now splitting time at 1B. ROS: Mathis, Kendall, AJ, Ivan, Barajas, Snyder, or Napoli?

  131. Cheese

    Cheese says:
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    K Johnson/Rasmus/Axford for Cano/Romo

  132. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GB: Cool…

    @royce!: Yeah, Hammel’s been real nice though.

    @Kazmere: Napoli…

  133. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Cheese: I don’t know who Romo is but the Cano side.

  134. Child Please says:
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    5×5 H2H weekly lineup
    Which 2 for next week Polanco (4@STL, 3vsCOL), Chipper (3vsSD, 3@FLA), S-rod (3@BAL, 3@CLE), Headley (3@ATL, 3@PIT)?

  135. black love says:
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    ortiz or pena?
    stewart or beckham?
    thanks or no thanks?

  136. Robert says:
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    @Grey- I need help with avg, runs, and steals. My team’s pitching has been strong. Is J. Johnson for Braun fair?

  137. ViagraFalls says:
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    I have C. Richard and dlR sitting on the bench right now after Richard’s recent outings and dlR just coming back (and blowing it). Should I start either of them tonight?

    Richard is @San Diego
    dlR is @Reds

    After seeing what Marmol just did I cringe.

  138. Kazmere says:
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    @ViagraFalls: Sometimes there’s e coli in that $12 salad.

  139. Mr2Bits says:
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    Grey/All : Would you take Bengie Molina over Buck right now? Seems like the move to Texas has made him find something and Buck has gone cold.

  140. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    loney pulls up lame after striking out,molina caught him from falling,either a hammy or cramps

  141. danimal35 says:
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    can yahoo get the playing status of Quentin correct please…is it that hard?

    is he on the lineup card? yes…ok little hat symbol next to his name….no, ok put an “x” there…whew, that was mentally demanding!

  142. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Grey: volquez really looks good,ball is moving and jumping,

  143. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: Oh, that’s right, I was watching The Adverb. Switching to watch him.

  144. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Grey: dlr not so good

  145. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: Yeah, saw that. Were just a couple of ill-times homers, but still not good.

  146. Howard says:
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    Grey, I’m glad I didn’t start DLR on the road. Maybe it bodes well for Yo-lease?

  147. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Howard: He’s not exactly setting the world on fire in middle relief, but maybe.

  148. Howard says:
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    @Grey I own DLR in a few leagues so I’m hoping for the best. Maybe even a buy low!

  149. fitz says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: yeah, so glad we held onto him for this long – what a sweet reward!

  150. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @fitz: and dusty was smart pulling him after 6 with 96 pitches thrown and a big lead

  151. fitz says:
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    Hooray for owning Marmol, DLR, Nolaso, Haren and Kershaw this week. (9.6 ERA) :D

  152. Terrence Mann says:
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    I have tix right above the A’s dugout for the KC/Oakland game tomorrow. I’d love to taunt the A’s but am drawing a blank.

    Please help.

  153. Wilsonian says:
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    Is anyone in this list worth a drop for Chris Perez for some sweet SAGNOF action in an 8 Team H2H (for disclosure’s sake, here’s my whole pitching staff):

    JJ, Ubaldo, Verlander, Kershaw, Floyd, Volquez, Lewis, Scherzer, Romero, Capps, K-Rod, Feliz, Mike G. – DL?

  154. cardiel says:
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    hey grey, i was just offered nolasco/perez for dunn/fowler and i need pitching and have offense to spare. do i accept, or hold out for more for dunn?

    ?

    thanks for all the good work that you do.

  155. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Howard: Hmm… Maybe.

    @fitz: Ouch

    @Terrence Mann: You’re drawing a blank because they are a nameless group of uninspiring tripe. How’s… “Hey, Suzuki, didn’t they stop making you?” “Hey, Suzuki, I used to drive a Suzuki Samurai and it broke down all the time. Sound familiar?” “Hey, Barton, any relation to Clara?” “You suck! Cust kayin’.”

    @Wilsonian: Eh, not really. Romero’s a possibility, but do you need another closer or SP?

    @cardiel: Thanks, no problem. I’d want more for Dunn. Or trade something lesser for Nolasco.

  156. Terrence Mann says:
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    @Grey:

    Ha! I did drive a Samurai in HS but it was pretty reliable. Irony!

    I was thinking of telling Suzuki “Hey, Ichiro, you better hope you get traded to Boston because this club is going nowhere.”

    Also, I have no clue who they’ll bat cleanup…but will say, “This guy is the cleanup hitter? They need to get this team back on the roids.”

    Thanks for the input!

  157. Mike says:
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    Which side of this trade would you want:

    Holliday and Price or Zobrist, Youk, Soria, and Vazquez?

  158. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Terrence Mann: Ha… Nice.

    @Mike: Holliday’s side. It’s fair though if you need depth.

  159. Wilsonian says:
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    @Grey: thanks man. I probably don’t need either. One will be going when Utley comes back. And I’ll have to make the call next week if I wanna hang onto Mike G. and drop an SP for him, or not.

  160. Jay says:
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    Hey Grey, I know you’re a big proponent of FIP and other defense-independent “ERAs,” but I’m not convinced. I think it varies, as some pitchers pitch to contact and others are strikeout pitchers.

    I’d be convinced of its utility if I could see a consistent different between FIP (or any similar stat) and ERA on a specific TEAM, since teams field virtually the same defense from pitcher to pitcher. But if the difference between FIP and ERA seems nearly random, I have absolutely no faith in FIP as an ERA-replacement stat (though it would still have some value as a “power pitcher” stat).

  161. royce! says:
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    @Grey: And someone just picked Hammel up in the league in question… oh well. At least I won’t have to think about picking him up anymore.

  162. Jay says:
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    To follow up, here are the Yankees starters’ values for (ERA – FIP):

    Sabathia: -0.48
    Pettitte: -1.05
    Hughes: 0.07
    Burnett: 0.31
    Vazquez: 0.22

    (ERA – FIP) consistency isn’t looking so good.

  163. royce! says:
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    @Jay: I think the reason that you won’t find a consistent difference between FIP or xFIP and ERA on a specific team is because luck may play a bigger part in ERA than defense. That’s my guess, at least.

  164. royce! says:
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    @Jay: You’re positing that the difference between ERA and FIP is a number that quantifies the value of the defense, but that’s not necessarily what it does. Without looking into other stats (LD/GB.FB, etd) I’d say that the numbers you quoted merely show that some of the Yanks SP are getting more lucky than others.

  165. hen says:
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    With Hart still hitting and Strasburg fresh off a solid 6IP/0ER/7K, is now the opportune time to offer my Hart/Strasburg for Braun? In other words, would you trade Hart/Strasburg straight up for Braun?

  166. Jay says:
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    @royce!: Then what’s the value of FIP or xFIP? I understand that it can be an interesting stat, similar to WHIP, but I dispute people’s claims that it tells the whole story just because it is finagled to end up on the same order of magnitude as ERA.

    In my opinion, it doesn’t factor in hits, which are non-negligible. Sure, a poor defense will give up more hits over 162 games, but FIP tells me that a pitcher who gives up 10 line drive doubles in a row to the gap is doing OK. Uh-oh!

    FIP is a measure of power and control and ability to keep the ball in the ballpark — certainly a valuable tool, but it should not be assumed to tell the entire story of a pitcher.

  167. Anonymous says:
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    Grey, drop Medlen for Volquez? Medlen is confusing me because I’m not expecting him to throw an inning here and there as he’s doing. Why can’t he just strain his oblique sneezing already? For the love of my sanity, please Medlen, please pull a Latos…

  168. royce! says:
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    @Jay: I don’t think anyone is arguing that it is a stat that tells the entire story of a pitcher. But when the difference between FIP and ERA is significant, it shows you that you need to look deeper into the stats to find out if the pitcher is getting really lucky or something.

    Taking your example- if someone gave up 10 line drives to the gap in a row (assuming they wouldn’t be pulled after the 5th one), assuming their K/9 and BB/9 were good, they may have a low FIP, but their ERA would be very high. So you would see this and then look into their BABIP and LD/GB/FB rates. Then you would see a high LD rate and think, huh, maybe he’s not getting unlucky, maybe he’s just a bad pitcher.

    That’s the value of FIP to me at least. And I’ve never heard anyone say that it tells the entire story of a pitcher.

  169. Jay says:
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    @royce@royce!: Well, you ar right in that you should look deeper at things such as LD/GB/FB rates, etc. But the reason I posted this on Razzball is because Grey often makes fantasy suggestions based on the (ERA – xFIP) value. GREY, not you, is the one saying, that anyone with a discrepant (ERA – xFIP) is due for a “course correction,” whereas I feel that that is a bold claim to make, especially when FIP or xFIP is often claimed to so neatly remove defense from the equation. Some pitchers just pitch to contact — there are many ways to record 27 outs.

  170. DrEasy says:
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    Some drama at the end of the Jays game! Gregg loads the bases and with two outs, Cito surprisingly does the right thing at pulls him, bringing Camp to finish the game. But Gregg looked unhappy and snapped something at Cito. When they got back to the dugout they stood at opposite ends of the bench. Later on, after Camp got the final out and bailed Gregg’s ass, and everyone’s back on the field, Cito made a sign at Gregg which I think meant “we’ll talk about this”.

    Gregg wasn’t getting strike calls, shades of the Tampa game earlier in the season. Camp’s first pitch would have easily been called a ball if it had been Gregg throwing it. Cito did the right thing recognizing the situation.

    Anyway, this probably doesn’t help Gregg’s value in a trade, but it might accelerate it. Downs is a type A FA, so I don’t think there will be as much urgency to trade him, unless there’s really good value coming back. Frasor has been inconsistent, not sure if anyone will want to give up much for him.

    My bet: Gregg gets traded for peanuts, and unless someone goes nuts and makes another Yunel-type offer to Anthopoulos, the other two stay till the end of the season and walk away as free agents.

    Also: Rzep had another relief appearance, probably meaning he will be sent down as soon as Marcum is called up. Act accordingly.

  171. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Jay: “I’d be convinced of its utility if I could see a consistent different between FIP (or any similar stat) and ERA on a specific TEAM, since teams field virtually the same defense from pitcher to pitcher.” There’s no defense that can be all places, all the time. If a pitcher loads the bases and gets a K and a double play, he gets out of it. But he could have easily got a K and gave up a seeing-eye single for two runs. The first is lucky, the 2nd is unlucky. If a pitcher is consistently unlucky or lucky, it’s worth noting. It’s not the end all.

    @DrEasy: That’s for the heads up!

  172. DrEasy says:
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    @Jay: I think you have a point there. For one think, it would be interesting to look at (ERA – FIP) on a team by team basis maybe as an indicator of the team defense (or the ballpark’s contribution to defense). Then one could use that value to normalize a pitcher’s (ERA-FIP): you would get something like:

    Pitcher’s luck = pitcher’s ERA-FIP / team’s ERA-FIP

    (looks like a simpler formula than xFIP, but maybe it’s not as good, and I don’t even pretend to understand how they came up with that formula)

  173. royce! says:
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    @Jay: It seems that your disagreement with the utility of the difference between xFIP and ERA stems from the belief that xFIP does not value pitchers who “pitch to contact.” I’m not sure if this is true. Wouldn’t a pitcher who pitches to contact sport a low BB/9? If so, I would think that they would have a low xFIP.

    I guess it would be easier to understand your qualms with xFIP if you could give an example of a pitcher who pitches to contact that has a high xFIP and low ERA. Who are you thinking of?

  174. Jay says:
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    @Grey: But Grey, I’m contending that (ERA – FIP) IS NOT a good measure of a pitcher’s luck!! No doubt, there is a lot of luck in pitching — I just seriously doubt the viability of FIP and other defense-independent “ERAs” in measuring luck (or lack thereof).

    People claim that these formulas take defense out of the equation. OK. I’m in the process of compiling (ERA – FIP) values for all teams’ top SPs — so far I’m getting VERY large standard deviations amongst these values for teammates. Defense should be a constant from starter-to-starter in the same rotation. I’m finding that, according to FIP, it’s not.

    (Sorry to sound like such a curmudgeon through all this. I love your shit.)

  175. Steve says:
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    You Saturday night ravers, you!

  176. royce! says:
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    @Jay: I think that what you’re failing to see is that xFIP eliminates defense as well as luck, and luck may play a much greater part in the difference between xFIP and ERA than defense. So the numbers you compile are going to be all over the place because luck is random. Defense, on the other hand, is more consistent than pure luck.

  177. royce! says:
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    @Steve: RAVE TIL DAWN!!!

  178. Jay says:
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    @royce!: I’m not really concerned with individual pitchers, but I think that groundball pitchers generally will be evaluated as “overachieving” by (ERA – xFIP) standards.

    My main concern is with saying that defense independent formulas are such reliable indicators of pitcher value and potential for “course correction.” IMO, we have yet to come up with the perfect defense independent formula.

  179. royce! says:
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    @Jay: Another way of saying what I just said is that xFIP only expresses the elements of which it is composed. K, HR, BB (incl. HBP and IBB). All of which are generally within the pitcher’s control. So the difference between xFIP and ERA is going to be a product of all sorts of things. One of these things will be the skill of the defense. But there’s no reason to think that the defense will be the most powerful variable.

  180. Jay says:
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    @DrEasy: “I think that what you’re failing to see is that xFIP eliminates defense as well as luck…”

    It eliminates luck? All I see it doing is eliminating non-HR hits! You’re saying that every single pitcher, for every 100 non-HR hits given up, gives up x% of lucky hits? Methinks it’s not that simple. As you mentioned before, things like LD% need to be included to determine how lucky any hit is.

    (As you can imagine, I have similar qualms about the BABIP vs BA “rule of thumb.”)

  181. royce! says:
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    @Jay: I think you’re right about GB pitchers generally- their GB tendencies can partially explain a difference between FIP and ERA.

    I lied when I said “RAVE TIL DAWN!” I’m gonna go to bed now.

  182. royce! says:
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    @Jay: That was me, not Dr. Easy.

  183. Jay says:
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    @royce!: (Sorry, my last comment was @DrEasy instead of @royce!)

  184. Anonymous says:
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    @Jay: Doesn’t quality of defenses faced play at least a small role in a hitters BABIP? For example, if a hitter is facing a defense that has a greater range (or if you want me to be more specific, the hitter is a righty pull hitter and the opponent’s LF/3B/SS are all plus defenders), what might have been a hit against one defense would be an out against a different defense? Or am I being WAY TOO technical?

  185. royce! says:
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    @Jay: ARRGHHH. I want to go to sleep! But I have to reply to this… I am saying that xFIP ignores the things that are least within a pitcher’s control (hits) by only considering the things that are most within the pitcher’s control (K, BB). Hits occur for many reasons. One of the major reasons is a poor defense. Another, and I would posit greater reason is luck. So by ignoring hits, xFIP does away with luck.

    I have no idea how you got to my thinking that every pitcher gives up x% lucky hits. It seems that by thinking that a pitcher on any given team’s xFIP-ERA should be consistent that you are actually thinking that there is a constant # of lucky hits, so that you can measure the value of the defense.

    I’m done, though.

  186. Jay says:
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    @Anonymous: No, not too technical for a fantasy sports blog! :-)

    Yes, I agree, quality of defense will affect a batter’s BABIP, especially if he’s a pull righty and the left side of the D is solid. My qualm with BABIP is that people compare it to the *MLB* average of around .300 then call a player lucky or unlucky. IMO you have to compare it to his expected (or career) average and his current average.

    Austin Jackson’s BABIP in May was ridiculous, and everybody knew his BA would come down b/c his strikeouts were so high, and it did. But when Robinson Cano’s BABIP is .350 (totally making this up), don’t expect his BA to drop, since it might be right around the norm.

    In my opinion, BABIP, just like FIP et al., will hold a lot more water when a statistician figures out how to incorporate LD%, and possibly other factors, into it.

  187. Anonymous says:
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    @Jay: I’m on the same page then. The stats tend to make a whole lot more sense when you have a perspective to put them in. “Err, this guys BABIP is .250? Err… Is that good?” was what I was like before and “Oh, he has a career .330 BABIP, well, he’s just unlucky” is what I’m like now.

  188. big o says:
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    @Terrence Mann:

    if you’re still awake ,
    try this one ===> “Hey , A ‘s … please come back to kansas city ,
    ‘cuz this royals’ team sucks ” .

  189. Jay says:
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    @royce!: “Hits occur for many reasons. One of the major reasons is a poor defense. ”

    Well, I would say poor defense and luck are MINOR reasons, and pitching ability is a MAJOR reason. I don’t know any way to quantify it, but hits are MUCH more often than not a pitcher’s fault. And over a (half?) season’s worth of innings, I think luck will generally balance out, when you think about swinging bunts vs at ‘em balls.

    Regardless, I don’t think FIP, xFIP, DICE, or anything else I’ve seen adequately predicts how well a pitcher would do against a normalized defense. Some pitchers give up only HRs and BBs, others get dinked and dunked. It’s the eclectic, varied nature of pitching.

  190. big o says:
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    @Grey:

    mlbtv is my favorite channel ,
    but this nim-rod who keeps using the term “duck-snort”
    is really starting to bum me out .

  191. Jake in Columbus says:
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    Won’t hurt that PED-inson Volquez should actually get some support this year for those big BBs (oxymoron?).

  192. Miguel the Mango says:
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    Watching Volquez pitch was fun, but if I have to spend another second hearing/watching Brennaman and his pinche “Cowboy” sidekick order snacks and discuss ranch/honey mustard/coke/how his living room La-Z-boy perspective reminds him of his seat behind home-plate I’m going to drop all three Reds pitchers I own so never have to suffer your broacasts ever again! Deep breaths…deep breaths.

  193. Jay says:
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    On one final note, teammates Tim Hudson and Tommy Hanson have (through Friday) extremely disparate (ERA – FIP) differences. Hudson has a 2.60 ERA and 4.23 FIP (+1.63 diff), and Hanson has a 4.19 ERA and 3.02 FIP (-1.17 diff). You simply cannot chalk those numbers up to poor or great defense, since it’s the same team. And there’s no way that luck influences numbers to that degree.

    (ERA – FIP) simply does not give a good indication of luck, defense, or proneness to course correction.

  194. Kyle says:
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    My team has officially gone to crap,
    My pitching has fallen apart and my batting is slowing down. I have Jose Lopez or Jay Bruce and am looking at Drew Stubbs for HRs. K’s are counted though and this worries me. I was thinking of dropping Bruce for Stubbs and keeping an eye on him Bruce for signs of a surge coming. What do you think?

  195. mr baseball says:
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    Burnett throws a CUT-ter

  196. royce! says:
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    @Jay: “Well, I would say poor defense and luck are MINOR reasons, and pitching ability is a MAJOR reason.” I don’t think you have any numbers to back this up.

    Re: Hudson and Hanson, you say: “And there’s no way that luck influences numbers to that degree.” Why not?

    You’re using the extreme cases to try to prove your point. First of all, I think you should use xFIP instead of FIP, but regardless, Hanson is one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball, and Hudson the luckiest.

    Hudson’s ERA is 2.60, and his FIP is 4.24. The factors that best express luck are BABIP and strand rate. His BABIP is the second lowest among qualifying starters (.232). His strand rate is 5th highest (82.5). Part of this is skill- he’s inducing ground balls at an insane 66.7%. His LD% is also insanely low- 11.3%. 11.3% is not sustainable, and I therefore think it is based on luck. It would be by far the lowest LD% for a season by a SP for a very long time. So Hudson is getting lucky. His ERA will trend upwards.

    I don’t think there’s much of a debate regarding Hanson. He has almost identical LD% from last year (18.5), is striking out more, and is walking less. What has changed is his BABIP (.349). I don’t see any reason why it would remain at .349; I expect it, and his ERA, to trend downwards.

    So the differences between each player’s FIP and ERA are going to get smaller. Are they going to become identical? No, because you can explain part of the difference on the unique characteristics of each pitcher. Hudson is an extreme ground ball pitcher. All other things being equal, his FIP will continue to be higher than his ERA. Another aspect of Hudson is that his k/BB is terrible. So FIP is not going to value him highly.

    Lastly, you state, “(ERA – FIP) simply does not give a good indication of luck, defense, or proneness to course correction.” We should revisit this at the end of the season. But for starters, check what Grey wrote the other day regarding xFIP – ERA,

    “In our last look at pitchers that should get better, I pointed out Gavin Floyd, Haren, Randy Wells, Edwin Jackson, Pineiro, Harang, Correia, Masterson, Peavy and Morrow. Morrow’s ERA went from 6.52 in May to 3.35 in June/July, Floyd’s went 5.63 to 2.21, Haren went from 6.08 to 3.05, Edwin from 5.58 to 3.37… You get the idea. Even Justin Masterson was better (barely).”

  197. royce! says:
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    @Jay: What you call the “eclectic, varied nature of pitching,” I call luck. So I guess that sums up our differences nicely.

  198. Tom Emanski says:
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    Grey do you do this trade? I offered it. My Boesch, S-Rod, and Bumgarner for Votto and Beckham.

  199. Giggles McGehee says:
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    14-team 5×5. I’m in 1st. It’s a good time to trade keepers to teams out of contention (they’ll give up the farm). Who are my keepers (keep 4) and who should I try and move?
    M. Cabrera, D. Wright, J. Votto, J. Hamilton, U. Jimenez, A. Wainwright

  200. @Grey: Now I’m reading the Snakes are going to limit Kennedy’s innings. Between him and Jaime, I’m going to need another arm.

    I offered a 12th rounder in ’11 for Cain, but was denied. I’m not that hot for him, but he’s better than either of the kids on a limit. How low would you go for Cain? I’m thinking a 9th rounder? 8th tops.

  201. Carl Spackler says:
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    What is up with Medlen and all the relief work lately? Is he out of the starting line up?

    Rank these the rest of the way: Medlen, Randy Wells, Tom Gorz, Morrow, Marc Rzep

    Is it time to cut bait with Bruce? Options are Stubbs, LaPorta, Gordo Beckham. I use him for my utl spot if that helps

  202. DrEasy says:
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    Update on the Jays pitching situation: Rzep is scheduled to start in a few days, while Morrow is skipped. With Marcum up, they’re going to run with 6 pitchers, except that it’s not really a 6-man rotation: they’re just going to occasionally skip some of their young arms to limit their innings.

    So if you own Rzep, Morrow or Cecil (I hope you don’t own Litsch), just be ready for the occasional missed start.

  203. @Carl Spackler: His start was pushed back, so he needed his work in the mean time. They’re being cautious with him and limiting his innings. Since they’re doing well and will need him down the stretch, I figure they’ll limit him now so he’ll have something left in the tank come Sept/Oct.

  204. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Giggles McGehee: In a vacuum, Hamilton…

    @3FingersBrown: I was saying on the blog a few weeks ago Kennedy’s getting limited. Yeah, try a 9th rounder.

    @DrEasy: Thanks for the heads up!

  205. agarthered says:
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    How bad did Mccutchen’s injury look?

  206. agarthered says:
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    Thanks guy, supposedly a neck injury not a shoulder one though.

  207. DrEasy says:
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    Time to pick up Beckham again? I’ve been running with Figgins cause I needed the steals, but you can’t steal first base, as they say.

  208. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @DrEasy: Beckham is mentioned in the post you are commenting on.

  209. DrEasy says:
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    @Grey: But would you drop Figgins for him?

  210. Terrence Mann says:
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    @Carl Spackler: The Braves are limiting his innings and pushed his next start back until next weekend. He’s getting relief work until then.

  211. elwood blues says:
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    nl only league.. i just got this offer.
    I would get Victorino and Nolasco.. for Hart and a pitcher.
    He’s out of it, I am not.
    Worth it ?
    What odds do you give of losing Hart or Nolasco to AL?

  212. herschel says:
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    @Grey:

    Which 2 start pitcher for next week? Need k’s and wins.

    Wandy (@chc, vs cin)
    Baker (vs cle, @bal)
    Bumgarner (@la, @ari)

    Or just go with Volquez vs wash?

    Thanks.

  213. Cal Cheats says:
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    Please rate these SP’s – Shields, Bills, DLR, Jurrjens.

  214. JimBob says:
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    Gardner, Butler and Cahill for Lincecum, DLR, Pence and Kubel. Who wins?

  215. Wilsonian says:
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    The guy in last place in my 8 Team H2H League is in sell mode. He’s got three closers, Papelbon, Rauch and Franklin. There are a couple of closers out there (Perez, Aardsma, anyone from the D-Backs), but I don’t want to drop any of my pitchers for them, but I would do a deal if the price is right. Would you make an offer of any of these guys for either Pap, Rauch or Franlin, the Nu-Nation:

    JJ, Ubaldo, Verlander, Kershaw, Lewis, Floyd, Romero, Scherzer, Volquez, K-Rod, Capps, Feliz, Mike G. – on the DL (went ahead and listed them all)? I don’t wanna drop anyone for Mike G., but I’m thinking about throwing him in the deal as well. I’m a little worried that Capps is gonna get dealt and I’m only going to have one closer. Thanks man, I’m sure you’re sick of my closer questions for you…

  216. Wilsonian says:
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    @Wilsonian: I meant, I’m worried I might lose Capps and only have TWO closers, not one…

  217. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Wilsonian: I wouldn’t trade for a closer. If you lose Capps, you can pick up Perez, Aardsma, etc.

  218. Steve says:
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    Hello, my name is Steve. I’m a Placido Polanco owner.

    God, grant me the serenity
    To accept the things I cannot change;
    Courage to change the things I can;
    And wisdom to know the difference.

    @Grey: Smokey likes Bush (snigger) ahead of James McDonald this week. What say you?

  219. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Steve: barmes owner here,oh the pain

  220. Steve says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: Cliff and I had some fun together, but we’re seeing other people now.

  221. danimal35 says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: did something happen to Barmes? or are you lamenting suckitude?

  222. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @danimal35: just whinning about having to start him

  223. danimal35 says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: me too…but you scared me…thought i was gonna have to pick up Jhonny

  224. @Grey: I had my fingers in my ears, not wanting to believe you. Once again, in the words of Clyde Frazier, you are a soothsayer and a truthsayer.

  225. BSA says:
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    Looking around for Steve in the RCL but can’t seem to see around Al Koholic, Cockypheonix, AND Doc.

  226. Steve says:
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    Oh, very droll.

    Not the best of days.

  227. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @BSA: im trying,get some starting pitching and some hr,s,hippo,s on a power surge that i need

  228. BSA says:
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    @Steve: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness…..
    If you’re using “droll” I needed to dig up Charlie Dickens.

  229. chrisbenson says:
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    grey….can you rank these guys for util spot?

    ad. laroche, lind, kubel?

    can you also rank these SS options? barmes, y.escobar, felo?

  230. BSA says:
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    @Steve: Friday was a great day to get Beckham. I think I ended last year with Beckham and McGehee. We’ll see.

  231. Steve says:
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    @BSA: Can’t see my team doing much.

  232. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Nah – he’s fine. Just can’t believe that I own him and was introducing myself to a meeting of Crapolancoholics Anonymous. Symptomatic of my yawnstipating RCL season.

    Don’t actually need McDonald it turns out. Opponent this week doesn’t have much pitching and doesn’t seem to be paying attention

  233. BSA says:
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    @Grey: I am in a jam as to how to get those points with the team I have in that league.
    Team Schmohawk dashed out pretty quick this year so there was no two year tie.
    I am hoping his team gets pulled over in the coming weeks so they have to look at their drivers’ licenses and realize they are old and due for a DL stint.

  234. BSA says:
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    Alright my guy Pete turns two tomorrow and I am going back to cleaning off the regift. My original Tonka red fire truck with moving ladders – no batteries, plastic, scratches or rust.

  235. herschel says:
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    @Grey: Bedard worth hanging on to? Ive basically had him DL’d since the beginning of the season and kind of feel Im pot committed at this point. Thoughts?

  236. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Ah… Gotcha.

    @BSA: I hear ya.

    @BSA: Nice, daddy.

    @herschel: No idea who you’re dropping him for but I think there’s gotta be someone better.

  237. Matt J says:
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    In 20 team league ive been offered

    Ryan Ludwick, Rafeal Furcal, and Casey Mcghee
    for
    Pablo Sandoval and Matt Cain
    my current 3b is Sandoval, current SS is Uribe, current RF is Nelson Cruz. Ludwick would be my UTIL

  238. BSA says:
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    I can’t believe, as I looked the truck up, something I own is considered vintage. Ebayer’s are asking for $30 – $125 for it. Who the hell has a toy for 30+ years and still has it in the box? Then again this sucker still looks awesome.
    Thinking in fantasy baseball terms, at what point do you let go of something you held onto thinking it was going to be valuable, only to find out you screwed yourself to find out that the value of your player (toy) only increased the same rate as inflation, hence – you lose.

  239. chisox says:
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    I give Ichiro for Adrian Beltre in a points league? My 3B right now is Cantu and I have some depth at OF.

  240. black love says:
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    kubel is available in my league and i really need offensive help, dropping de la rosa seems reasonable?

  241. Mike says:
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    @grey: Grey I have J.Upton, McCutchen, Ordonez, Hart, Quentin, and Delmon Young for my OF….I am considering dropping Granderson for Beckham……what are your thoughts? Thank you!

  242. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Matt J: Not crazy about it.

    @BSA: You mean overpriced at drafts, Jason Bay?

    @chisox: Go for it.

    @Mike: I wouldn’t, but if you need Beckham, go for it.

  243. Steve says:
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    @Grey: BJ, Grandy… I got a cupboard full of ‘em.

  244. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Need some ERA and WHIP help in the ol’ keeper. More ERA than WHIP. Arroyo, Niese, Hammel or Padilla?

    Or rock an MR?

  245. black love says:
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    trading morneau and DlR for votto to much?

  246. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Heh. I know you add them randomly, but I’m always interested in the ellipsis.

    I can’t figure out if that one was the “You’re not giving me much to work with here, Steve” ellipsis or the “I think you already know the answer to that one, Steve” ellipsis.

  247. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @black love: I’d want Votto, it’s not close.

    @Steve: I tend to do it when there’s multiple names or it’s the only answer in a comment. Seems weird to just write a name. It’s also random…

  248. Steve says:
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    @Grey: It’s somehow warmer, friendlier, than the full stop.

    What’s your current thinking on MMD. Last time we discussed dropping him, he immediately went crazy with a two-homer game. Though he’s 1-9 since.
    If I was to lose him, I have Alvarez to man third and Cano/KJ at 2B and and MI. He’d be $10 to keep next year…

  249. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: I don’t think he’s going to be a keeper at that price. I would hold onto him unless someone else is chewing at the bit.

  250. Wilsonian says:
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    I’m in a 12 Team H2H League that I don’t pay TOO much attention to, but I was offered someone’s Carlos Pena for my Dirty Sanchez.

    Here’s my current lineup:

    Olivo, Votto, McGehee, Zimmerman, Hanley, Hart, Swisher, Ethier, BJ, Sean-Rod, Adam LaRoche

    DLR, Lester, Dirty, Weaver, Nolasco, Hi-May, Lewis, JJ, Simon, Axford, Capps

    Cats are: H, R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OPS, W, L, SV, K, ERA, WHIP, Ks/9

    What do you think about that offer?

  251. NukeLaDouche says:
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    Hey Grey. Would you drop Ian Stewart for Beckham or Asdrubal? Stewart not playing against lefties is not helping me much. Whoever I use only has to last until Pedroia gets back, but that still will probably be a while.

  252. Fan says:
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    Which side do you like… Hart & Strasburg for Braun?

Comments are closed.