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There’s no Reyes, Tulo or Hanley on this list of shortstops.  This list is guys that can be had later in your drafts if you’ve punted shortstop or are still looking for a middle infielder.  Look at this as a supplement to the top 20 shortstops of 2012 fantasy baseball.  If you’re feeling especially adventurous, click on the player’s name to read more about them or to see their 2012 projections.  I’m going to start this list of targets at the 141 ADP cut off.  You say, “Arbitrary!”  I say, “Why are you saying arbitrary to a computer screen?  No one can hear you.”  Anyway, here’s some shortstops to target for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Dee Gordon – Something I didn’t mention in the lede, but did mention in the lede in the 2nd basemen to target post is I am actually targeting these guys for my shortstop spot and not just for my MI.  I tend to punt shortstop, not to the point where I’m looking to draft Ruben Tejada or Robert Andino, but to around 120 overall.  I could have two 2nd basemen (one for 2nd and one for MI) before I start thinking about shortstop.  There’s just very little value to found earlier.  As for Dee Gordon, he could steal 70 bases and it wouldn’t totally shock me.  I don’t think he does, but the fact he could makes him a must target in all leagues.  He’s going at 141 on average at Mock Draft Central (see, it wasn’t that arbitrary).  He could give you Michael Bourn’s stats at shortstop, that’s Bourn who is being drafted almost 100 picks earlier.  (Bee tee dubya, who the eff uses the word lede?  What, I’m a newsie?)

Emilio Bonifacio – Small ball theme going on here.  Maybe we can get Whitey to send Willie McGee to our draft for us.  Would be reminiscent of that deleted scene from Mask when Rocky Dennis goes for sushi and the chef commits seppuku.

Ian Desmond – Why do people hate Ian Desmond?  Better still, why do I like Ian Desmond?  His projections aren’t really much different than Erick Aybar who is being drafted about 150 spots earlier than him.  That’s why I like him.  He’s a cheap 10/20 guy.  Last year he had 25 steals.  That seems about the ceiling, but he could swipe 30 if everything breaks right.  I like that too.  I have his projections down for 70/10/65/.250/22.  If he gets off to a hot start, he could cement his place at the top of the Nats order and my projected counting stats will actually seem low by the end of the year.  I like that a lot.

Zack Cozart – In drafts so far, Cozart is all but an afterthought.  Right now, he’s being drafted around the same spot as players that you shouldn’t ever draft (Derrek Lee, Kurt Suzuki, etc.) or last round catchers (Doumit, Saltymochachino, etc.).  In 2010, Cozart went 17/30 in Triple-A, then was headed that way again last year in Triple-A when he went 7/9 in only 77 games.  When he was promoted to the Reds last year, he hit 2 quick homers in 11 games before going down to Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing arm, which is no longer a concern.  I’ve already begged Rudy to draft Cozart in one league.  I want Cozart in every league.  He is the epitome of a great late round flyer.  If he performs well, he’s better than shortstops being drafted at least 200 spots ahead of him.  If he does poorly, whatever, it’s shortstop, just pick up someone else off waivers.

Alcides Escobar – He stole 26 bases last year and he stole 42 in Triple-A.  If he steps in shizz, he hits .280 and also gives you the same value as Erick Aybar 200 picks later.

Tyler Pastornicky – To answer your question, Random Razzball Commenter, “I like Cozart a lot more than Pastornicky.”  As for your second question, “Yes, Pastornicky sounds like the clergyman that Carmella made out with on The Sopranos.”

Eduardo Nunez – This is a very deep league sleeper.  If you are drafting Nunez, you better be in a league where almost everyone with everyday ABs is already taken.  Now what does Eduardo need to get everyday ABs for himself?  A Jeter or A-Rod injury.  Yeah, those things would never happen!  If Nunez can get 400 ABs, he could get 30 steals.  Definitely worth a shot in AL-Only leagues and very deep mixed ones.

Sean Rodriguez – I’m admittedly down on Sean-Rod this year in the non-sexual way.  He could surprise with 15+ homers and 15+ steals and if it’s gonna happen any year it’ll be this year.  Hey, I just talked myself into not being that down on him… That was easy.  Now let’s see if I can work up some enthusiasm again for Chris Davis.  *scrunches up face, forcing out enthusiasm*  Nope, no enthusiasm, but I did just poop myself.

From Around The Web

  1. Steve says:
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    Interesting. This may be the first time I’ve seen you specify how far you punt a position. I’ve always just assumed that ‘punting’ means to the very late rounds. This puts a slightly different complexion on things.

    But obviously the catcher punt is longer than the shortstop punt…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Steve, Catcher punt is much longer, yeah.

  2. Hondo says:
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    What do your crystal balls think about Aviles?

    And are they still blaming Walter White because they’re blue?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Hondo, I don’t know who Walter White is. Aviles I don’t like.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Hondo, I’ve never seen the show, but want to so I’m not looking at that site, avoiding spoilers.

          • Hondo says:
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            @Grey, One day 3 years from now you’ll be sipping a cold beverage on the balcony of the full service luxury condo you bought in Costa Rica with the profits you made from selling Razzball to Microsoft.
            You’ll call one of your personal assistants over and have her put on the season one DVD of Breaking Bad.
            About halfway through a light bulb will come on.You’ll drop your beverage on the floor and exclaim “That comment Hondo made 3 years ago was the funniest,wittiest comment in the history of comments.”

            Now,on to the spoilers.

            OK,in season one this guy …(I just broke my own hand with a hammer to keep from giving anything away.Oh crap,I forgot I’m ambidextrous.Where did I put that hammer?)

            (Noww ima typng wth my nos.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I like the idea of Venezuela better, this way I can blow through my money on recreational drugs and become a cabana boy, my real life long dream.

  3. Steve 2.0 says:
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    So basically, Erick Aybar is the Elvis Andrus 70 picks later, Ian Desmond looks like Aybar 150 picks later and you can find Alcides Escobar 200 picks later with almost the same value as Aybar. Which means Desmond and Alcides are similar to Andrus at around 50. Cool.

    • Lance Berkman says:
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      @Steve 2.0, Thanks for the recap. I wasn’t quite sure what I was reading until this summary.

  4. chata says:
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    “…. I did just poop myself.”

    ha .

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @chata, Ha

  5. JJ says:
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    Man WTF have you done to your website?
    I’m sitting here getting ready for fantasy, trying to read you site… and there are F***Kin ads playing which there is no volume control to turn them off…. can you please get it fixed!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @JJ, Tell me which ads and I’ll have them removed, there’s not supposed to be audio on any of them.

  6. Curt says:
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    Who would you keep as a 2nd catcher, Martin as a 11th rounder or Ruiz at 14th rd.??

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Curt, Martin

  7. Will says:
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    I need some ideas on my keepers. It is a 10 team 5 keeper roto league. I can only keep guys for 3 years and I don’t have to keep 5. We use the normal IF spots (no MI or CI spot) with 4 OF’s and 2 UTIL spots. Last time I asked Grey said I should keep Fielder, Reyes, Cano, Bruce, and CarGo.

    I am definitely keeping Fielder, Cano and CarGo. So for the other 2 which set do you like the best.

    Reyes and Zimmerman
    Reyes and Bruce
    Reyes and Pence
    Bruce and Pence
    Bruce and Zimmerman
    Pence and Zimmerman

    I have thought about punting SS for either Bruce and Pence or Bruce and Zimmerman. Any thoughts? Right now I am leaning towards Zimmerman and Reyes due to Zimmerman’s higher average than Bruce. One team in the league is keeping Kemp, Longoria, Hanley, McCutchen and J. Upton. So I know that at least 3 OF’s will be gone.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Will, Reyes, Zimmerman…

      • Will says:
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        @Grey, what caused you to change your recommendation?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Will, It’s a toss up, and you want Zimnmerman.

  8. inertiatic says:
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    Grey, I love this site more than you love Giancarlo Stanton (it’s sexy just typing the name got DAM!). Can’t thank you enough for all your hard work and considerable talent. I’m looking forward to the podcast, too! Does the voice match the moustache? Will the moustache get its own segment? Only time will tell. For Grey Albright and Razzball this season, I see big big things… Viva la RAZZ

    Alrighty then enough with the nosing of your brown, and on to the big $ question of the day:

    To acquire the aforementioned and devastatingly handsome young Giancarlo Stanton in a Dynasty league, would you trade another promising youngster by the name of Matt Moore?

    Moore is mine and my roster is ripe with good pitching, plus I’m more googly eyed for Stanton than I am for Moore if that makes any sense. And the other guy seems to have a significant SP-crush on Moore leading me to believe he’d make the deal with the quickness. So absent team needs and based purely on the more better awesomeness, on which side of this trade would you prefer to be?

    • JoeC says:
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      @inertiatic, In a heartbeat. Pitchers get hurt, even great, young phenom pitchers (re: Strasburg). When the choice is between a hitter and a pitcher, all other things being equal, I go hitter, hitter, hitter, like a wife-beater fresh out of jail! (ok, bad joke!)

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
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        @JoeC, I’d say you like hitters being that they’re your first ten picks in the RCL. I guess you’ll be Mr. Stream this year…

        • JoeC says:
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          @Big Magoo,
          Yeah, that was fun. It’s the first time I’ve had the bravery to do that in a real league. Usually I give in to the desire to take a pitcher by the 6th or 7th round. This year though… nerves of steel, baby!

          We’ll see how it works out. I am projected to finish last in ERA and Wins! :)

          • Big Magoo

            Big Magoo says:
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            @JoeC, It’s always fun to test different strategies. And projections are rarely accurate anyway. I’ve always found it’s better to just draft the players that you like from a projection standpoint than worry about public perception or adp anyway…

            • JoeC says:
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              @Big Magoo, Oh, I’m not worried about the projections at all. They’re too easily skewed by wonky AB and IP totals. For example, ESPN has Juan Nicasio pitching 79 innings this season. Is that possible? I suppose. But is it probable? Not if he wins a rotation spot, which, judging by the competition and his talent level, should be a slam dunk. Double his IPs in the projections and you double his Ks and his Wins (practically). Might affect your team’s standing in those categories, eh? :)

              Plus there’s the fact that I picked the guys I did because I believe either that they will beat their projections or that they’re surer bets to meet their projections than the players I bypassed. ESPN obviously doesn’t reflect that in their projections (fools!). ;)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @inertiatic, Thanks for the kind words! I agree with JoeC.

  9. Commish Cauda says:
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    20-team Mixed H2H-Points Keeper league

    Two quick hits:

    Soto or Salty?

    Ivan Nova or Kuroda?

  10. Pirahnaman says:
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    hi, grey. i have a question.
    originally, i’ve offered my Dan Hudson and Erick Aybar for his Gardner and Hellickson. (Hellickson would be a trade card for me.)

    but, he sent to me counter. that’s

    Youkilis, Gardner, Hellickson for my J-Upton. 3 for 1.

    this is 10 teams roto. and 5×5 + OPS and QS.
    is he no-brainer? and i love Upton. should i accept his offer?

    my team is

    C – Wieters (maybe trade card)
    1B- Pujols
    2B- Espinosa
    3B- Lawrie
    SS- Hanley Ram
    IF- Butler
    OF- J. Upton
    OF- Bruce
    OF- Cuddyer
    OF- Delmon Young
    Util- Aybar
    Util- Rios

    BN- Ramos (my real catcher)
    BN- Aaron Hill
    BN- Morales
    BN- Allen Craig

    SP- Greinke
    SP- Haren
    RP- Storen
    RP- Soria
    P- Motte
    P- Bumgarner
    P- Dan Hudson
    P- U. Jimenez

    BN- Zimmermann
    BN- McCarthy.

    need your advice, bro.

    • inertiatic says:
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      @Pirahnaman, Trading a dollar for one quarter and two dimes. Its interesting but if you’re set on trading upton you could get two better players than the three you’re currently being offered. Just my two pennies.

      • Pirahnaman says:
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        @inertiatic, thanks. i’d likely stick with Upton. i just wonder.. Youk is only one quarter for now (while Upton is a dollar)? Youk makes me so confused.

    • Tony says:
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      @Pirahnaman, i would not do that, i dont like hellickson or gardner to be honest and Youk will probably be on the DL twice the way things have went the past couple years, plus u already have Lawrie…. for a guy who might be the #1 overall player at years end? NO WAY. Especially since its a 10 team league, if it were to gain depth in a deep league then maybe, not in a shallow league like that tho…. You’re also going to have to drop 2 players.

      • Pirahnaman says:
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        @Tony, thank you. i just decided to reject it. you helped me.

    • Bada Bing says:
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      @Pirahnaman, If I am making a trade in a shallow league like this one, I am always going to make sure I am getting the best player in the deal. There will be a few guys throughout the year that will offer you cheap speed like Gardner and pitching stats like Hellickson on the wire if you need it.

      • Pirahnaman says:
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        @Bada Bing, thank you, bro. you’re right. i decided to reject. good advice.

  11. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    very good post grey, i had all of these guys targeted in my deep leagues. thanks man

    • @The Talented Mr. Dope Man, Looks like you will be drafting alot of shortstops

      • The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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        @Mr Baseball, ha i’m in a few different “only” leagues. i try to punt the position.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @The Talented Mr. Dope Man, No problem.

  12. Tony says:
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    Grey- Ian Desmond’s been terrible in spring ball, yes I know its just spring ball, but do you think there’s any way that Danny Espinosa slides over to short and Desomond loses his job?

    He’s something like 0-9 and has 3 errors in the field….

    • JoeC says:
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      @Tony,
      I don’t think the Nats dump Desmond because of a bad Spring. If anything, they’ll make a move if his suckitude continues during the season and they’re otherwise in contention.

      But who do they plug in at second if they do make such a move?

      • Tony says:
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        @JoeC, it was a topic on another site, yes i do read other sites, sorry grey, the suggestion was a guy named Steve Lombardozzi ? and that he could step right into 2B…. who knows, it is still way too early, i didn’t even know Espinosa could slide over, half these guys you just dont know all the positions they might be able to play….

        • JoeC says:
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          @Tony, Yeah, I’ve read that Espinosa has really good hands and that his glove could play at shortstop.

          Never heard of this Lombardozzi dude. I would think they will stick with Desmond unless they have some minor league dude who’s just tearing it up.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Tony, Don’t think anyone’s losing their position because their hitless less than a week into the spring.

  13. Project_badass says:
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    16-team H2H 6×6 (OBP, QS), non-keeper but we are starting with 1 keeper from last year.

    Who would you rather start your team with Bumgarner or Jennings?

    Also, in preference of draft order, how would you rank picks 13-16?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Project_badass, Bum

      • Project_badass says:
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        @Grey, Had to take Jennings because another team snagged Bum. Would you rather have the 14th or 15th pick out of 16 teams? The only top 20 player that I cannot draft is Giancarlo.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Project_badass, 14th

  14. Kyle says:
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    In a 12 team league with no CI or MI slot and 3 OFs and 1 UTIL with 6 P slots, would you would still wait on SS until later in the draft?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Kyle, Read the post.

  15. Sideshow says:
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    Grey any opinion on if Aviles can have similiar value to Desmond or Cozart this year? He should go 100-150 picks after them. I am a buyer.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Sideshow, I’m not.

  16. Howie Met Your Mother says:
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    @Grey (and anyone who would like to chime in)

    First time back this season and looking forward to another great season of Razzball!

    I have a weird question (and I apologize if it’s a little long) I was invited to a VERY weirdly formatted 12 team H2H league that a bunch of guys at my work play in. It’s a 9×7 league with the following categories:

    Hitting-
    Runs (R), Singles (1B), Doubles (2B), Triples (3B), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), Batting Average (AVG), On-base Percentage (OBP)

    Pitching-
    Wins (W), Saves (SV), Home Runs Allowed -Neg. (HR), Strikeouts (K), Earned Run Average (ERA), (Walks + Hits)/ Innings Pitched (WHIP), Strikeouts per Nine Innings (K/9)

    Can you give me some draft advice? How much more valuable are hitters than pitchers in a league with 2 extra hitting categories? Who should I target to win the doubles and (although harder to predict) triples categories? Any other advice on a league I’d ordinarily pass on?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Howie Met Your Mother, Welcome back! Good to see you! Speedsters get triples. Hitters are much more valuable. MRs are valuable too because of K/9. Seems like a league where you can almost punt SPs.

      • Howie Met Your Mother says:
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        @Grey,

        I’m interested in the idea of (sorta) punting SP. In this league, you have to hit 40 total innings per week between your pitchers, and there is a 50 player maximum accquisitions. What round would you start considering a SP (excluding getting someone at an AMAZING value)?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Howie Met Your Mother, Oh, I didn’t see you needed 40 IP. Then you need SPs. I’d get a couple, starting as I normally would around Greinke…

          • Howie Met Your Mother says:
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            @Grey,

            My fault. I didn’t know about the innings minimum until I started contemplating how I could get by with streaming. Greinke was the first SP I was considering too. But with 2 more hitting categories, I’m going after them even more so than I would typically right? (And I’m usually always one to wait on SPs).

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              @Howie Met Your Mother, Yeah, you should go heavy on bats, but you can’t disregard SP altogether since you need 40 IP/week. If you have 40 IP from terrible pitchers it’s going to ruin any good MRs or HRA you have.

  17. papasmurf says:
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    I drafted Dee Gordon but I have to say I feel nervous because he’s just one hammy pull or one rough doubleplay attempt away from being worthless. My feeling is he may not even get 30 steals because of the injury factor. The only solace is that I got him at around 185 so it’s still a pretty good bargain.

    I grabbed Y Escobar 100 picks later as backup… just in case. I hope I am wrong but I think these two will end up splitting ABs 50/50 for me.

    • @papasmurf, he may not even get 30 steals because of the injury factor – how can you determine the injury factor here – what is the formula – are you a mad scientist

      • JoeC says:
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        @Mr Baseball, This is a common concern I’ve heard about Gordon… it’s because of his slight physical nature. I mean, 5′ 11″ 150 lbs? Even *I* could take him!

    • peter says:
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      @papasmurf, Matt Holliday is just a single, errant moth away from the DL.

      • papasmurf says:
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        @peter, The point is that his small size, infield position, and one-category contribution makes him an above average risk. If he plays the OF like Pierre did, I wouldn’t be as worried. I hope I am wrong and he steals 60 bases while playing 150 games. I would grab a decent backup if I can though.

  18. Futureman says:
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    Grey,

    What is the most ideal draft position this year?

    I’m in a 12 team points league where i get to choose my draft position and i’m about to go Ray Pruitt on someone trying to figure it out.

    Thanks.

    • @Futureman, I would look who I wanted to draft first – figure out where he is was going in the draft – lets say 4th then take that draft spot – that way at least you get to pick before three other players in round 2 – I hope the person you target first is not going to go 13th then you have to add two more players to the draft

    • Eddy says:
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      @Futureman,

      I’d have to argue that 4-5, or 9-10 is a good spot.

      4-5, you have your pick of Votto, Braun, Bautista, then can come on the turn with McCutchen, Stanton.

      9-10 you can roll with Longo, Fielder and possibly land Kinsler/Hanley.

      I feel like 1-2 leaves you with nothing in the second round.

      • Futureman says:
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        @Eddy, Agree. Ive taken pujols first the last two years and have won, but this year i just don’t like anyone at 24-25.

        I’m targeting Votto so i’m thinking around 6-9. Assuming it goes some order of

        Pujols
        Miggy
        Bautista
        Kemp
        Braun
        Halladay (pitchers are crazy valuable in this league.)

        I almost wish i didn’t have to choose. Just give me a random spot and i’d roll with it.

    • Mark says:
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      @Futureman, My feeling is Not picking TOO late in the second and third seems more important this year than picking anywhere in particular in the first. You can’t really go wrong with any of the first like, eight picks IMO. If you have a top five pick, there are legitimately five guys who are pretty close, guys where if I have to I haven no problem letting someone else make the decisions for me, and even if you have a 6-9 pick you either have a remainder from that group or another very good tier in Tulo, Upton, Votto, and Longo, so same thing. But the second round seems like its all about the good MIs (Kinsler, Hanley, Reyes, Pedrioa, plus the bozos who take top pitchers) and the third round is important if to get a third baseman or outfielder (if you didn’t get one in the first ideally you can get Beltre, Wright, Giancarlo, or McCutchen).

      I think my ideal draft spot this year would be 5th or 6th. Any earlier and you probably wind up with a difficult decision in the second, any later and you could wind up with an equally difficult decision in the third, and neither in a good way.

  19. Eddy says:
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    Grey,

    I’m going to the FIU-Marlins game today. I’m going to try and abuse my press pass and get on the field and find Stanton. Any questions if I catch up to him?

    • Wake Up says:
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      @Eddy, Do you bowl overhand?

    • JoeC says:
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      @Eddy, “How is Giancarlo workin’ with the ladies?” (rhetorical!) :)

    • Eddy says:
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      Noted!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Eddy, Have him hold a sign that says Razzball loves you and take a picture!

  20. Mark says:
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    I’d have Erick Aybar on this list. I see what you’re saying about the Desmond comparison at first glance, but I think they’re about equally undervalued if you spend about $1-2 on Desmond vs. $4-6 on Aybar. They have similar power but Aybar has a bit more speed, makes a lot more contact, and figures to hit near the top of a batting order that now includes Albert Pujols. The risk with Aybar is playing time, and that’s why the projections look more similar than you’d think otherwise–no one is figuring Aybar is going to get 650 PAs while they think Desmond will, but I think that’s actually backwards. Desmond isn’t going to hit high enough in the order and is going to be at risk of getting benched if he struggles to produce or even possibly traded into an inferior situation. The only reason the projections look like that is because Desmond actually got close to 650 PAs last year, but that was as much a function of the Nats having little to gain by not playing him as anything. This year Aybar will likely hit leadoff most days and last year after May 1 he played in 130 of the Angels’ 135 games. If he gets 150 games this year, hitting leadoff will easily carry him above his PT projections, which would prorate to around .275-80-55-10-30. He’s also turned himself into a very efficient basestealer over the last few years (something Desmond is not) so if that speed projection seems a tad bullish, that’s why. He also had a ridiculously good September last year, going .365 / .450 / .588 with an 11/8 BB/K over 100 PAs. If there’s anyone who pulls a ‘Drubal this year and comes seemingly out of nowhere to outproduce his draft position at SS, I think its Aybar, just without as much of a power spike but more AVG and speed. Something like .290-12-90-60-35 isn’t as far out of reach as people realize based on his ADP. That would pretty easily be a Top 5 SS, and if one of the Tulo/Hanley/Reyes trifecta busts maybe even Top 3.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Mark, Aybar’s issue is health. If he stays healthy, then he could be valuable. Also, I think after the trifecta of elite SS any two could fill out the five.

      • Mark says:
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        @Grey, Yeah that’s probably true (about the possibility than any two SS could fill out the top 5). Should I be more worried about Aybar’s health than I am though? He got messed up in 2010 and opened last year with an oblique injury that they handled extra cautiously, but otherwise I don’t see much reason to worry more about him than anyone else. I like the balance he offers a touch better than Gordon’s elite single-cat potential, and their ADPs are similar (the Gordon hype machine actually seems to have him going a bit earlier in most drafts I’ve done), so Aybar’s been the SS I’ve most frequently found myself winding up with. I’m not a fan of the risk levels with Tulo, Hanley, and Reyes, won’t touch Andrus with a 10 foot pole and I’d need Castro or Asdrubal to fall a bit before I’d consider them, but I don’t have the cojones to rely on Cozart, though I do like him a lot too. So I’ve wound up pretty tunnel vision on Gordon and Aybar, more tha latter unless I feel like I really need as much speed as I can get.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Mark, Probably no more injury prone than anyone else. Okay, maybe a tad. Yeah, there’s no real value at SS until about 10 rounds in.

        • JoeC says:
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          @Mark, Just curious on why you wouldn’t touch Andrus with a 10-foot pole?

          • MH says:
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            @JoeC, I probably worded that a bit strongly–what I should say is I wouldn’t even think about touching him before the 6th and in practice probably wouldn’t draft him before the 7th or 8th, and since he never falls that far, he won’t be on any of my teams. He’s low risk but very low reward too, if you’re spending a 4th round pick on him you’re expecting him to do considerably better than he did last year and even though he’s young there are no real signs of improvement. He hits too many ground balls to increase his power, he’s not an efficient enough basestealer to expect him to crack 40 SB, and he’d either need to get his K% down around 8% or see a big BABIP swing over his established rate to post a big AVG. His walk rate gives him a decent floor in R and hitting behind Kinsler helped his RBI last year, but he hasn’t really given anyone any reason to expect better than .280-90-50-4-35. You can get about 90% of that from a guy like Gordon or Aybar for fifty cents on the dollar.

            • JoeC says:
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              @MH, I totally hear what you’re saying and, like you, I’m pretty high on Aybar (whom I have ranked 7th among shortstops) and Gordon (whom I have ranked 10th and whom I just drafted in my RCL league (albeit traded for Alexei/Fister)).

              Obviously Aybar’s stat line is closer to Andrus’ because they’re similar players whereas Gordon’s contribution is nearly all from steals, but you could make the case that their overall contributions to your team’s bottom line are similar. So yes, I can see someone saying “I can draft Aybar or Gordon 5 or 6 rounds later than Andrus and get the same stats! Brilliant!”

              To which I say “Yes, but” (and that “but(t)” is the size of a Kim K X-ray). And the reason I say “Yes, but” is this: consistency and proven MLB performance. Could Aybar come close enough to Andrus’ totals to make him the value pick of the century? Yes, but are you willing to bet your fantasy fate on that? Aybar had a career year last year, in many ways. What are the odds he repeats that? Like I said, I have him highly-rated and expect a good stat line, but I could also see him reverting to a 5/20 guy.

              And even if he equals his 2011 performance, he still comes up 20 to 30 Runs short of Andrus’ Runs total and, likely, 5 to 10 stolen bases short of Andrus’ SBs. That may not seem like much, but it all adds up. I’m not saying Andrus over Aybar is the difference in winning a championship, but I will say that Andrus is valued and picked where he is for what I see as legitimate reasons. The profit potential of Aybar is much greater than Andrus, for sure, but I also think the “disaster” potential of Andrus is much less than Aybar, thus the premium price that is to be paid for Elvis (and you basically said this, when you said that Andrus was “low risk, but very low reward”).

              For Gordon, obviously his greatest drawback is he’s not MLB-proven, so the disaster potential is even greater than Aybar. Plus there’s the injury concerns, which I think are somewhat legitimate.

              It’s all a balancing act though… perhaps that 3rd/4th round pick on Andrus could be better spent somewhere else (for the record, I took him in the 5th round in my recent RCL draft, but I think he’ll go earlier in other leagues)? Perhaps it is a better strategy to maximize potential value rather than to try to maximize “safety” through supposedly “safe” picks. But isn’t that what makes fantasy baseball just the best game in town? The different strategies, the different valuations, then the 162 game turn-of-the-mill which tells us who was right, who was wrong and how amazing Grey and his prognosticating mustache are? :) We all have our different methods and madness… in 6 months time, we’ll also have our answers.

              • Mark says:
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                @JoeC, Well maximizing value is kind of the name of the game, and while Andrus may be the safest (meaning his projection is the least volatile, and I mean that among all positive value SS) player at a very volatile shortstop position this year, he’s being valued as a $20 player, which he simply isn’t. You may not be risking a disaster, but you are almost assuring yourself a small but still significant loss . He’s not a team breaker if you pay $20 in rotobucks for him, but he leaves you a lot of room to make up elsewhere, while if you spend $4-6 bucks on Aybar, even in a disaster situation, you don’t have more to lose than you are almost assuring yourself with Andrus anyway. Even if he’s worth $0, lose around $5, which is what you lose with Andrus.

                Just to clarify–I agree with some of what you are saying, but I don’t think this example applies. If I’m going to target a lower risk asset at shortstop, even if the “disaster” potential is slightly higher, I’d much rather look at someone like Starlin Castro, who provides much better balance, which benefits roster construction, and who provides positive stability in a much more difficult category to find it in (AVG). I’d also rather go with Jimmy Rollins or Asdrubal Cabrera for similar reasons along with lower cost, and that’s not even expecting any more than .260-15-25 from Rollins or .275-15-15 from the Drubal. Even at those projections, they come much closer to justifying their costs and don’t have all that much risk.

                And just a note on the Runs issue–this isn’t a Runs issue, its a plate appearances issue. Make what you will of that, but their projected R/PA is quite similar.

                • JoeC says:
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                  @Mark,
                  Great points, Mark. It does seem to me though, that you seem to be undervaluing steals a bit, in your valuation comparison between Andrus and Castro/Rollins/Asdrubal. If you take away the Steals, yes, Andrus is not a $20 player. But with the steals, he is. Shandler has him down as worth $22 last year and projects a $23 value this year.

                  I agree that Starlin is a great choice, and he’s right next to Andrus in my rankings. Choosing between them seems to me to be a matter of team construction. If you’re in need of stolen bases, then Andrus seems to be the better choice. If you need BA, then Starlin.

                  I understand the argument for Starlin, but I’m less-enamored with the argument regarding Asdrubal or Rollins. They’re actually 6th and 8th in my own projections (Andrus and Starlin are 4th and 5th), so I don’t hate them, but Asdrubal’s lack of steals and Rollins advanced age and greater injury risk cool my ardor for them. If I missed on getting Starlin or Elvis, I’d probably wait to take Aybar, personally.

                  I understand that getting value is the name of the game, but avoiding disaster is also a part of the game. In your scenario, where you skipped Elvis in order to take Aybar, and then Aybar returned you a $0 roto dollar contribution, yes, you’re only out 5 roto dollars, but it’s not like good shortstops grow on trees. Good luck on finding a competent replacement to fill that gaping hole. Now I don’t believe that Aybar *will* be a disaster at all, but there are things other than finding those “black swans”, as Oaktown Steve talks about. Often, it’s enough if your guy simply returns in value what you paid for him. Avoiding disasters for your early round picks seems to be a major indicator of fantasy success, at least in my experience. You can get the values later, when you’re spending less and expecting less and you can speculate more.

                  So beyond Andrus himself, why not implement your valuation by taking Starlin as your SS and then Aybar as your MI? Seems to me the best of both worlds there, eh? You get the safety of Starlin with the possibility of out-sized rewards with Aybar.

                  I don’t understand your point about R/PA, unless you’re in a league that uses that as a stat. Their R/PA may be similar, but if one consistently gets less total Runs per season, how can you not take that into account? 20 Runs difference is 20 Runs difference. It could be a roto point or two in that category! I don’t see how you can dismiss that?

                  Anyways, great discussion (and maybe we can continue it in the forums?)! I probably have Grey-itis in that I undervalue BA a bit, which is probably why I rank Andrus slightly ahead of Starlin. That may be a weakness in my approach and I’m always open for examining my own biases and correcting them where appropriate. We all want to win, after all! :)

  21. GT says:
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    First time I’ve seen Pastornicky in a post. He’s so far under the radar that you might as well draft him with the last pick. Could see 8 hrs/20 sbs/65 runs/.275 BA. Playing time>talent

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @GT, Don’t think his average comes near .275.

  22. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    Speaking of stopping short, did you see that some photos of Christina Hendricks were hacked off of her phone… including one of her bodacious tatas?

    http://bit.ly/wvBt9G (NSFW, dummy)

    Been waiting to see those since Firefly!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Awesomus Maximus, Oh, c’mon, are these real? There’s no face on them.

      • Awesomus Maximus

        Awesomus Maximus says:
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        @Grey, The analysis is pretty convincing (the vein patterns are the same, the overlay onto a pic with her face is dead on).

        • 3FingersBrown says:
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          @Awesomus Maximus, I really hope they’re real too. If not, nice boobs anyway!

          • Awesomus Maximus

            Awesomus Maximus says:
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            @3FingersBrown, Agreed, it’s a win-win!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Awesomus Maximus, The vein patterns? Really? I don’t know, man. You sound a bit like a guy who hasn’t slept in two days. I think if I were her I’d go ahead and say they’re mine so this way there’s no more people trying to find pics of me, matter of fact, I’d do that if I were any sexy female celebrity.

          • Awesomus Maximus

            Awesomus Maximus says:
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            @Grey, Ha! I didn’t DO the analysis, I just looked at the pics. I’m just a guy, not a crazy stalker.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              @Awesomus Maximus, Ha! So we’re relying on Mr. Nuts at Garble Nuts?

              • Awesomus Maximus

                Awesomus Maximus says:
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                @Grey, and his crack BVA (breast vein analysis) team, yes. Is that a problem?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  @Awesomus Maximus, Nah, was glad he separated from the Boob Patrol, BP has such bad connotations.

                  • Awesomus Maximus

                    Awesomus Maximus says:
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                    @Grey, Indeed, reminds me of the poor people at Ayds.

                    Anyway, I don’t think Dan Rather or even the Mythbusters are going to cover this one, so this is what we have to go on. And actually, when it comes to spending creepy amounts of time, energy, and resources confirming the identity of breast package, I think I’d rely on a guy who proudly calls himself Mr. Nuts. Just seems logical.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      @Awesomus Maximus, If the aptronym fits…

                    • Awesomus Maximus

                      Awesomus Maximus says:
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                      @Grey, It wouldn’t be an aptronym if it didn’t fit, yeah? What would it be… an antronym?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      @Awesomus Maximus, Notanaptronym?

                    • Awesomus Maximus

                      Awesomus Maximus says:
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                      @Grey, Ha! Inappropronym?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      @Awesomus Maximus, I like it!

                    • Awesomus Maximus

                      Awesomus Maximus says:
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                      @Grey, Like calling a big fat guy “Tiny,” or anyone on the Mariners “Slugger.”

                      “I know you think it’s funny, but I don’t appreciate the inappropronym, fellas.”

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      @Awesomus Maximus, Ha! Yeah, and Jon Rauch “Shorty.”

  23. TheNewGuy says:
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    Grey didn’t you/Rudy also run some kind of league last year where the shizziest teams win rather than the best, where the bullies can get their own back on the nerds. Any plans to run some again this year?

    Either that or I’ve had some crazy dream imagining one…hey maybe I could win that!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @TheNewGuy, Yeah, Rudy’s looking for commissioners.

  24. Eddy says:
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    Grey,

    Who has a better shot of making the rotation out of ST:

    Hultzen or Jacob Turner?

    Neither?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Eddy, Neither

  25. amscalone says:
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    @grey :
    10 team h2h pick 5 keepers from this group of pretty crappy values…round in ( )

    m. cab (1)
    fielder (2)
    phillips (3)
    andrus (3)
    utley (4)
    stubbs (6)
    wieters (8)
    lind (19)
    j. montero (23)
    jimenez (24)

    already keeping CarGo (8) and Morse (13).

    Thanks. Anyone else’s input is greatly appreciated!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @amscalone, Miggy, Fielder, Jesus, Ubaldo, Phillips…

  26. OaktownSteve says:
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    Ian Desmond…shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

    • OaktownSteve says:
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      @OaktownSteve, yeah replying to myself.

      I think the reason a guy like Desmond has no buzz is that there is absolutely nothing in the mlb numbers to indicate upside trends. These days there are a bunch of semi-pro SABR sleuths running around eating BABIP for breakfast and when the see something it gets posted on Fangraphs or the Hardball Times or Baseball HQ or whatever and then the MSM of fantasy (Yahoo/ESPN etc.) picks it up and you have buzz.

      What gets me interested in Desmond this year is what I would call the fundamental analysis rather than the technical. In the stock market, technicals are looking at charts and graphps to figure out the relation of stock to the marketplace numerically. This would be the like a High Frequency Trading algorithmic trader. Fundamental analysis is the Warren Buffet way. What do I think of this company? Do people buy what they make? How stable is the management?

      What I am picking up on Desmond is positive fundamentals of the course of the last 18 months or so. I think this presents a buy opportunity on Desmond because he’s a guy that is not hitting the SABR radar at all. And as much as I like numbers, you can’t always see the future in them.

      I won’t go into it all the good stuff I have on Desmond, you can find it yourself on the interwebs. I will add that fundamental analysis is the reason why my favorite sources are the hometown radio broadcasts on XM satellite and the local daily papers online (Washington Post in this case).

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @OaktownSteve, I like the technical vs. fundamental idea, but I think it can be misused by people to say, “I just have a special feeling so and so is gonna bounce back.”

        • OaktownSteve says:
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          @Grey,

          Numbers can get misused too. They’re both just tools that can be applied better or worse depending upon who’s weilding them.

          I think with fundamental stuff the first rule, which I didn’t mention before, is watch as much baseball as you possibly can. Be your own scout and trust your own eyes.

          Second thing is trust guys who watch the team every day, but aren’t part of the organization. That’s why I like the radio guys and the beat writers. They watch every pitch every inning and the good ones aren’t afraid to call it like they see it.

          I also like to get an accumulation of facts that start to add up. I don’t want to read “best shape of his life!” and draw a whole lot of conclusions. I just keep my ear out there and start to build a case.

          I like fundamental analysis because it’s about players as human beings and not just number generating cyborgs (Albert Pujols excepted).

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            @OaktownSteve, I think watching the games is very true in baseball. Lots of times I’ll see a guy go 0-for-3 but hit the ball solidly three times and know he’s seeing the ball well. Or a pitcher give up four runs and know it was three bloop singles and a blast.

          • Mark says:
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            @OaktownSteve, The only problem I have with this argument is that this type of fundamental analysis is incredibly susceptible to bias. The hometown radio guys will be subject to groupthink and availability bias and relying on your own sensory perspective will lead to achoring, clustering, and confirmation bias. So if two guys do a story about how Ian Desmond looks like he’s in great shape and his swing looks faster, and then a third guy does it, the third story doesn’t add nearly as much fundamental support as the first two did, and then if Desmond gets off to a a fast start, odds are its much less meaningful than one might want to believe after reading all those stories.

            Technical interpretations are also subject to biases on the interpretative level, but its much easier to methodically eliminate them and recognize when someone else’s analysis has fallen victim. Of course, when a bias does infect a technical analysis but is not recognized, it can be much more dangerous, since technical analysis tends to be treated as something much closer to certainty than fundamental analysis.

            None of this is to say that one method is inherently superior–both have advantages and weaknesses. I find it best to try as many modes of analysis as I can, when I can, and if I find a glaring contradiction, consider various ways to resolve it and if I can’t, then tend towards the more negative interpretation until more information presents itself.

            • OaktownSteve says:
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              @Mark,

              I don’t disagree with anything you said. You need a combination of both and an awareness of the kinds of biases endemic to each.

              I would also add that the technical analysis has another problem. As I said, technical analysis cannot see the future (or there would be no reason to play), but it seems to hold out the promise that it can. This is the kind of thing that Nassim Taleb talks about with Black Swans. Over-confidence in data because of the perceived solidity of numbers versus qualitative evidence.

              The fundamental analysis gives you better chance of finding the Black Swans and the Black Swans are fantasy gold.

              • Mark says:
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                @OaktownSteve, First, great book. I’ve thought a lot about how and whether Taleb’s theories apply to baseball, in particular regarding his critique on game theory and how its often abused in attempts to apply that type of thinking to Black Swan prone systems.

                Just as a sort of fascinating side note: I’ve often debated whether baseball itself more resembles a game of chess (closed, finite outcome system, not prone to Black Swans) or the stock market (open, infinite outcome system, prone to black swans). I think that baseball itself more closely resembles the former, but oddly enough, fantasy baseball more closely resembles the latter. Of course, which is all kinds of confusing (the difference biggiest difference is in the volatility of value distributions versus cost, which is something general managers have to deal with, but not baseball players). This distinction isn’t necessarily meaningful in this case, since although baseball is technically finite it its number of possible outcomes, the possibilities are orders of magnitude greater than a game like chess or a casino card game. The Black Swan may still apply, though it would be fascinating to see a study done on these massive-finite systems in comparison to both smaller ones and infinite systems in terms of their Black Swan potential. Tough thing to set up and quantify, but interesting idea.

                Anyway, I digress. I agree in that, as I said, technical analysis tends to present itself as something that resembles certaintly, which fundamental analysis does not. Perhaps I’m only refining your point here, but rather than saying quantitative analysis cannot “see the future,” I would say that all uncertaintly theory is an exercise in dealing with incomplete information, and that the problem is the analyst who ignores this quality of a quantitative prediction. Quantitative analysis doesn’t have an intrinsically more difficult time recognizing the Black Swan, but its much easier to rely on quantitative analysis in a way that sets up a situation where a Black Swan can be even more of a game changer than it would be otherwise. This is because of a particularly nasty bias of Quantitative Analysis though, not a quality of the analysis itself. Qualitative Analysis is just as prone to missing the Black Swan (e.g. the Harry Potter example), but because we aren’t so biased into assuming our qualitative analysis is certainty, it the black Swan itself doesn’t disrupt our paradigm in the same way.

                • OaktownSteve says:
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                  @Mark,

                  Hey I would like to continue the conversation because I have had a lot of similar thoughts and we’re on a good topic here. Shoot me an email oaktownsteve@gmail.com and I’ll send a response later.

                  • JoeC says:
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                    @OaktownSteve, This is forum material, Steve!

    • JoeC says:
      (link)

      @OaktownSteve, I thought you weren’t playing fantasy baseball this year?

  27. RealMcCoy says:
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    Is taking Billy Butler in the 8th and Jason Werth in the 9th Reaching Too Much??

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @RealMcCoy, Nope

  28. doghat says:
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    Keeper help please:
    11 team daily 10×10 roto keeper auction league ; 2C/1B/2B/3B/SS/MI/CI/5OF/DH/1RP/1SP/7P/6Bench. Total salary $330, keep 6: Likely candidates:
    Votto $20
    Wright $10
    Kemp $16
    JUpton $20
    Stanton $10
    Hanley $20

    Should I keep any of these instead of the ones above?
    Lawrie $10
    SCastro $10
    Hosmer $10
    Pineda $6
    Beachy $6

    Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @doghat, Your salary is too large and your league is too small. I’d go with the ones you have.

  29. 3FingersBrown says:
    (link)

    @Grey, I always thought Willie McGee was black Rocky Dennis. Glad you noticed that too.

    I’m feeling the Cozart love – cheap power/speed. Curious to note for OBP fans – at AA in ’09 he posted an 11.6% BB rate in 541 PA. He’s never come close to that again at any level. Here’s hoping he rediscovers that sometimes it’s best to not swing.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @3FingersBrown, Total Dennis. I’m actually way down on Cozart’s average in my projections than most.

  30. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    Just a note: In a recent Yahoo! Experts Mock Draft, Dee Gordon went in Rnd 8. ROUND EIGHT.

    The Sleeper Awakens.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Baron Von Vulturewins, I knew you couldn’t stay away.

      • Baron Von Vulturewins

        Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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        @Grey, The Sleeper Awakens was meant as a double entendre.

        It’s French!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Baron Von Vulturewins, He does remind me of Juan Pierre so French makes sense.

    • JoeC says:
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      @Baron Von Vulturewins,
      Ugh… that reminds me of that hideous David Lynch version of Dune. Didn’t Paul Atriedes say “The Sleeper has awoken” during one of his badly-filmed/conceived trances/drug-trips?

    • duder says:
      (link)

      @Baron Von Vulturewins, Immediately after that mock draft, the geniuses at Yahoo! reranked him at 96. He is no longer a sleeper. You’re basically paying for the actuality of 45+ steals, whereas before you were paying a lower price for the potential.

      • JoeC says:
        (link)

        @duder, Yes… he’s climbing the boards. I took him myself in my RCL draft in Round 10, but I think he’ll move up a bit as the season gets nearer. Who doesn’t love a gaggle of steals?!

        But of course there are concerns with him. Can he actually play MLB-quality ball for a season? Can he handle the rigors of a full season? Can he get on base enough to put himself in position to get those 40+ steals?

        All these questions caused me to jump at a trade offer I received from another owner soon after the draft: he gave me Alexei Ramirez and Doug Fister for Gordon. Done and done! I was already overbought in Steals, so I traded excess in exchange for a little more security. Alexei may be blah-tastic, but he’s consistent in a way that Gordon has yet to establish. I’ll take Door #1, thank you!

  31. ETMcgee says:
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    any willie mcgee reference is always welcome. what a great era of baseball in st louis back then…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @ETMcgee, Agreed

  32. B.o.B says:
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    2 part question…Part I: Was just in a mock for a 10 team H2H league. Had the 2 spot, took Braun and when it came back to me (19th pick) Kinsler, Pedroia, Han Ram, Reyes, McCutchen, Giancarlo, D Wright and Beltre are all still available. Just curious: WWGT (Who Would Grey Take)? Part II: Return of the Question…I ended up taking Kinsler there, then at the turn Pedroia and Han Ram were taken. My next pick (22), WWGT?

    1 part question: Approximately where do you like to start eying closers in a standard 10 team league?

    P.S. I thought it was spelled eyeing but that damn red squiggly line pops up underneath it! Eying just doesn’t look right IMO OMG LOL

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @B.o.B, I’d follow my rankings. Kinsler, Reyes or Hanley sound fine… I’d take a 3B next. I wouldn’t take a closer until mid way through the donkeycorns. So it depends when others are taking them. Eyeing looks right, ignore squiggly line there.

  33. Jay29 says:
    (link)

    @Grey, so my league is 5×5 w/ OPS, and I’m keeping Votto, Ellsbury, Napoli, and Kimbrel. Now that everybody else’s keepers are in, it looks like I could get one more elite player ($30+) and one semi-elite player ($20-29) before filling roster spots. I’m a big fan of best-player-available for high-money picks, but which elite player do you think I should go for? (Power 1Bs are huge in an OPS league.)

    Pujols ~$40
    Fielder ~ $35-40
    A-Gonz ~$30-35
    Cano ~$30-35
    Longo ~$35
    Stanton ~$30
    Hanley ~$30

    Going with a 1B locks down the best 1B/CI combo in the league, but would leave me weak at at (stutterer!) least one other IF spot. Going with 2B/SS/3B locks down a weak position but I wouldn’t mind a sleeper at SS and any top 10 3B.

    Thanks, great stuff this off-season, btw!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Jay29, Longo… Thanks for the kind words!

  34. Van Hammersly says:
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    Grey, do you have a preference for where we solicit members for open league spots (non-RCL)? i.e., do you prefer we ask in the comments section of a post, in the forum, or not at all? Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Van Hammersly, Forum…

  35. Bristol says:
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    Grey

    I have back to back picks in a draft. It is a keeper points league.

    My keepers are:
    Bautista
    Latos
    Jennings
    Lawrie
    Luebke

    Draft has started and it looks like I will have my pick of two of these four:
    Fielder
    Longoria
    Cliff Lee
    Ian Kinsler

    Last year, Lee was the highest point scorer out of all four and was top 3 in pitcher scoring with 633 points. I want to give you a reference point. Kinsler had 573 and Fielder 548. Longoria was lowest.

    Based on this info, which two would you take?

    29 pitchers were kept.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Lee an Fielder…

      • Bristol says:
        (link)

        @Grey, Fielder over Longoria? Longoria had a down year last year

        • Jay29 says:
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          @Bristol, If I may step in, drafting Longo would give you three 3B. Obviously you could put Bautista at OF, but with Lawrie already on board why not get a 1B?

          • Bristol says:
            (link)

            @Jay29, True, but we also have a utility spot

            • Jay29 says:
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              @Bristol, OK, but anyone you slot at UTIL is essentially positionless — i.e. scarcity no longer applies. Longo (or Lawrie) no longer has max value for you at UTIL, unless you trade him. So if you’re drafting for UTIL (without an intent to trade from that position in April) you have to compare that player’s projections straight up with others and disregard the 3B aspect almost entirely. Straight up stats-wise, if you still think Longo is better (AND you can get a 2nd-tier 1B in the next round or two) then go for it.

  36. Bob says:
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    Grey,

    Please either tell me I’m not crazy or talk me off the ledge here…

    I want to keep Danny Espinosa.

    My other options are Ian Kennedy, Krispie Young and Mike Morse.
    I don’t like any of them, and I’m already keeping Cliff Lee so that devalues Kennedy even more.

    I guess I could keep Kennedy and then roll the dice with Espinosa/Jemile/Altuve…but why not keep the 25 year old 20/20 threat at 2B?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Bob, Better off keeping Kennedy and trading him before the season for a better hitter than keeping Espinosa… And I like Espinosa… Or keeping Morse or Krispie…

  37. L-Boogie says:
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    Gotta love CBS mock draft. In the 7 spot I picked up Votto, Longo, and Stanton in the first three rounds.

    Dare to dream.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @L-Boogie, Yeah, but where’s the challenge in that?

  38. Curtis says:
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    Keeper options, 12 team standard league (2 Cs, $260 budget):
    -Wilson Ramos, $5
    -Elvis Andrus, $19
    -Dee Gordon, $5
    -Justin Upton, $27
    -Adam Jones, $7
    -Peter Bourjos, $1
    -Zach Greinke, $17
    -Ian Kennedy, $1
    -Cory Luebke, $5
    -Chris Sale, $1
    -Jason Motte, $4

    We can keep 2 bats, 2 arms and 1 flex. Justin Upton, Adam Jones and Ian Kennedy are locks given their excess value. I’m flipping between Greinke and Motte for my second pitcher. You think I should keep Dee Gordon for my flex pick? He provides the most surplus according to ESPN’s 12 team projections ($9, so $4 benefit). But they obvi don’t consider the keeper bump to stud value. Does that make Elvis a better value? Does the 2 C league make Ramos the best of the 3?

    Thoughts?

    Thanks as always.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Curtis, Greinke over Motte, it’s not close. Gordon’s better than Andrus for that price. Ramos isn’t near the the top three.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @3FingersBrown, Wow, that’s harsh. Thanks for sharing!

  39. Random Collmenter says:
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    just had an idea for a possible title of your memoirs:

    “Muesdays with Torre”

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Perfect!

      • Random Collmenter says:
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        @Grey, You just have to wait for torii hunter or joe torre to get diagnosed with Lou gehrig’s, then go visit him once a week.

        Too dark?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Random Collmenter, Not at all… Be better if they got Valley Fever or a bad case of mono.

          • Random Collmenter says:
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            @Grey, or a really bad oblique strain.

            question–

            there are so many questions regarding third base this year – wright, zimmerman, a-rod, youk, beltre, panda, etc. after miggy/bautista/longo are off the board, why not just wait until a few of these other guys are snatched up and see if you can get a value pick, like sandoval or youk in the 7th/8th? do you really want to spend a 2nd/3rd round pick on a wright/zim/beltre type that might get injured or underperform (again)? i’d much rather play it safe with an OF or even SP than one of these guys.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              @Random Collmenter, In theory that works for me, but if you don’t get a value pick with Youk or Sandoval, you’re gonna have who?

              • Random Collmenter says:
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                @Grey, i guess i’m just wary of drafting wright in the 2nd, beltre/zim in the 3rd, or lawrie in the 4th, where they seem to be going. i’d rather have a-rod/aramis/youk/pablo somewhere between 5th – 8th round.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  @Random Collmenter, I hear ya… Their value is better if you can get them in the 8th round… But if you miss out on them then you’re in trouble… Also, they’re far from guarantees too.

  40. Melvin Emanuel says:
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    Do you think Hanley will be worth a second round pick this year as long as you dont have to reach for him? If I don’t get Tulo in the first or Hanley in the second, ill probably punt shortstop like you suggest.

    What about safe and reliable Alexis Ramirez?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Melvin Emanuel, Alexei is fine later on, just not very exciting. If you get Hanley late in the 2nd, it’s worth the pick…

  41. Mr2Bits says:
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    Grey : In a 10 team yahoo keeper league. OBP is used and I need to either draft Danny Espinosa with my last pick or he goes to the wolves. Would you snag him with Howie Kendrick on staff or let him go at this point?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Mr2Bits, Goes to the wolves? What do you mean? You don’t have waivers? I also don’t know who you’re choosing between.

      • Mr2Bits says:
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        @Grey, He was on my minor farm but is over his AB limit which is why I need to call him up or let him lose. Available 2B above him are the following. Again, I have Kendrick on my team already.

        Chase Utley
        Michael Young
        Michael Cuddyer
        Ben Zobrist
        Rickie Weeks

        He would cost me a 24th round pick in a 24 pick league to keep.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Mr2Bits, Yeah, but who are you throwing back to keep him?

          • Mr2Bits says:
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            @Grey, Would be a late round flyer. Me keeping him does not affect my current 8 keepers, it only means I have to use my last rounds pick on him. If I don’t then someone else can grab him during the draft.

  42. Wilsonian says:
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    I just finished off an 8 Team H2H draft. Posted it in the forums…can you give me some feedback when you get a chance? Thanks dood.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Wilsonian, Looking now…

  43. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    Chris Perez was throwing from 60 ft the other day, now he’s throwing from 75 ft. Are the Indians moving him to OF?

    If you watched Survivor, mention it in your next blurb or in the comments; we need to talk.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Awesomus Maximus, Ha, maybe Perez will fill in for Sizemore. My DVR screwed up so I have to watch Survivor on line. Is it on the CBS site?

  44. jokerman says:
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    Grey – what are your thoughts on the recent yahoo article about Hellickson? I noticed his entire minor league stat history is insanely amazing, with a K / 9 rate of 9.8 and a WIP of 1.055 over 6 years. I get that you don’t like him, but you have him as the 60th SP overall behind Clay Buchholz? Is that a joke?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @jokerman, It’s not a joke. There’s about 40 starters I like and you need anywhere from 6 to 8 per team so I don’t think it’s crazy to avoid a guy that has question marks.

      • Melvin Emanuel says:
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        @Grey, draysbay had a good article recently about hellickson. Basically saying that his BABIP should only go up a little. With the best defense in baseball, all of the Rays starters have low BABIP, typically lower than .280 annually. Maddon and Friedman both said with the high IFF% and weak contact Hellickson induces, he can support a low BABIP. Even with a higher BABIP, an expected regression in k/9 and BB/9, should help even this out. Not to mention fx shows Helly was extremely squeezed in the zone last year, which Jose Molina should help fix. We are thinking an ERA in the 3.25-3.50 range with a k/9 of 7+ and sub 3 BB/9.

        • JoeC says:
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          @Melvin Emanuel, Do you have a link for that article? I looked on the site but couldn’t find it. Appreciated if you have it.

  45. mike says:
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    i have jose reyes and pedroia…. im in a head to head league and i also have a 2b/ss slot along with a slot for 1b/3b and a util slot… i ryan roberts and alexei ramirez…. my ? is do i go and drop alexei ramirez and/or max sherzer to pick up any of these 3 chone figgins, zack cozart( which i was really thinking), or rafeal furcal… please help dont want to lose out on stars available now….

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