FIP A U-ey
June 23, 2009
Category: Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy
Jake Peavy limped away into the sunset with a walking cast and a .98 difference between his ERA and his FIP, which means his ERA could’ve been below a 3 when he went down. Pardon me as I cry into a bowl of beer-battered onion rings. Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb and a frozen Ted Williams are standing on a cloud somewhere mocking us. Baseball gods, why didn’t you take Joe Blanton? Anyway, here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs. If your guy is on the list, there’s hope. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best thing. Some would even say you could go out and trade for some of these guys, you educated fantasy baseball owner you! (FYI, I did this on Sunday, so the numbers may be slightly off, but the gist remains. Oh, and loved loved loved what Merchant Ivory did with The Gist Remains.)
Jorge de la Rosa – 1.89. Member what I said two sentences ago about trading for these guys? Yeah, ignore that for this guy. He’s a very risky starter. Caveat Jorge.
Carl Pavano – 1.63. Has a 5.73 ERA and a 4.10 FIP. Hmm… Are these buy lows? Or just “Continue to Ignores?” Good question, Razzball reader. I’m ignoring Pavano.
Andy Sonnanstine – 1.25. These FIP lists never work out the way I want them too. I’m not going after Sonnanstine either.
Francisco Liriano – 1.09. How does that quote go? Best intentions is a dish best served without any intentions? Is that it? Yeah, Liriano’s sitting on a 4.82 FIP. So he’s not as bad as he’s been, but he’s still not good.
Justin Verlander – 1.05. Wow, he has a 3.39 ERA and a 2.34 FIP, while striking out almost 11 batters per nine. I know, Greinke, Greinke, Greinke… but Verlander could win the Cy Young this year. Believe it or not, I’m walking on air…
Jon Lester – .95. Over 10 K/9 and under 3 BB/9. Then throw in a team that will give him run support. Lester!
Scott Baker – .92. There were some trying times early on for Baker’s owners, but his June has been terrific. He’s still an injury risk, but I’d own him at this point.
Joel Pineiro – .86. Ignoreio.
Gavin Floyd – .85. Has a 3.80 FIP, which makes him someone that’s worth being on your team rather than waivers.
Javier Vazquez – .75. Could be below a 3 ERA right now… If only Cox could pull him from the game in, say, the 6th then pitch him again in the 7th.
June 23rd, 2009 at 1:01 pm
is it just me, or did the site go a little batty awhile ago?……………should I start Price and Ubaldo?
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June 23rd, 2009 at 1:07 pm
Would you guys give up Rollins for Gallardo?
I’d move Alexei to SS and start A. Hill. I need to improve my Ks, Whip, and ERA.
I feel like Rollins will have a big 2nd half, but think Hill/Alexei isnt too much of a drop off IMO.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 1:08 pm
I’d take a look at xFIP too;
De La Rosa and Pavano both look as good by xFIP as they do by FIP. However, the former pitches in Coors and the latter is a major health risk.
Gavin Floyd’s xFIP is 30 points higher than his FIP.
Another big FIP-ERA difference is Gil Meche. His FIP-ERA is -0.76 but his xFIP is 4.2 right now, which is right about where his ERA is.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 1:14 pm
@grey: swisher and edwin jackson too much for ludwick? i figure the formers are in for a cut in playing time and a regression/fatigue respectively. it’s probably too much, but i’m trying to pare down spare parts.
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@Doug Ault: Start both.
@RIP Harry: I’d take Gallardo there.
@sean: Nope, not too much.
********Absolutely freakin’ buggy. The site’s server is giving me so much crap, pardon my language. I think we’re going to need to move to a dedicated server. There’s just too many of you. Please answer each other’s comments while I try to deal with this. Sorry, for the problems.**********
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June 23rd, 2009 at 1:15 pm
@Doug Ault: yeah, i had a suspended url error message around grey’s posting time
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June 23rd, 2009 at 1:19 pm
@Grey: server’s going all joey votto/denard span/jorge cantu/chipper jones on you
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June 23rd, 2009 at 1:19 pm
Grey, your getting too popular. perhaps we should move to a undisclosed website where ESPN fanboi’s can’t find you!
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@sean: Ha!
@Broadstreetbrawler: Yeah, apparently.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 1:27 pm
Stash E Encarnacion or Lowrie on my DL (5×5, any help will do)?
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June 23rd, 2009 at 1:29 pm
ok, so in a 5 man, 12 team h2h keeper league i have aroid. i’m getting seriously nervous he may or may not finish the season. i could definitely see him opting to have the full surgery and getting a full rehab in before next season.
now obviously most of the contenders (i’m in 2nd right now) probably don’t want to part with quality player(s) for a guy they may decide to have season ending surgery, but i’ve been shopping aroid to some of the bottom feeders. pitching them on the fact that utley had similar surgery and is fine this year and that next year aroid will be back to his normal self, etc etc etc. i don’t think i’ll be able to pry away a top talent that is younger than aroid (i.e. miguel cabrera and teixeira are on some of the worst teams), but would you say something for a nick markakis level guy + some pieces for this year would be enough for aroid or should i just roll the dice that aroid ups the avg and plays through the end of the year?
i just hate to lose him after the league trading deadline right before the stretch run/playoffs.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 1:30 pm
Has anybody heard any news of Webb’s latest MRI results?
I wanna throw up when I see him and Peavy on my bench, or maybe it’s the leftover chinese food
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June 23rd, 2009 at 1:30 pm
@sean: I also own Edwin and I’d want more in return for him at this point
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June 23rd, 2009 at 1:33 pm
cong@Broadstreetbrawler: @Grey: congrats on the success Grey, you Razzball guys have earned it many times over: I think its Daiquiri time!
Hey where’d the donation links go?
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June 23rd, 2009 at 1:40 pm
For deeper leagues, Malholm also has a considerably higher ERA than FIP, with a diff of .9. As does Koji. Both of their FIPs are near 3.5. Not that I’m going out to pick them up, I’m cust kayin’.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 1:47 pm
daquiri time! hopefully giving gets contagious.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 1:52 pm
Reyes was apparently involved in a “freak” accident with a fire truck monday night, nobody hurt.What kinda bad karma has that Mets team unleashed
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June 23rd, 2009 at 1:56 pm
In a vacuum, is giving Broxton and getting Ichiro a good deal? I have never believed in “safe” closers, but on the other hand, is someone like Ichiro that much more valuable than say Michael Bourne, who would obivously come much cheaper? Basically, i have a ton of middling relief options in 6×6 with holds (Broxton, Qualls, Bailey, Howell, Madson, Ziegler, Belisario) and would like to trim some.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 1:56 pm
I should also say, I just lost Beltran.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 2:01 pm
@JRT: I would much rather do Qualls for Bourn than Brox for Ichiro, if you can pull it off.
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@Scott: Lowrie
@ThePoonTycoon: Markakis would be a decent guy to get.
@Doug Ault: I haven’t.
@royce!: Yup
@sean: Thanks!
@Doug Ault: Was he running after it?
@JRT: I’d take Ichiro over a closer, even Broxton, but Bourn would be much cheaper and I’d go that route first.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 2:12 pm
@Grey: ha ha,cheap rehab……here’s the blurb
“Reyes was actually on his way to the Hospital for Special Surgery in Manhattan for a check-up on his right hamstring. The shortstop met up with teammates later at Citi Field, but failed to inform management of the accident until starter Tim Redding blurted it out in a post-game chat. We’re thinking that might not sit well with Mets brass.”
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@Doug Ault: What a joke. Maybe Votto was driving the fire truck.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 2:49 pm
One scout on pitching to Albert Pujols: “He has a 1.200 OPS. If you walk him every time, that’s only 1.000. So you’re ahead of the game.”
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@Doc: Ha, nice quote.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 2:55 pm
RE the aroid situation i posted above. i have a prelim offer of aroid + markakis + huff. though i just put the word out to the league at-large that i’m window shopping. i fully expect 5 offers of travis hafner + cliff lee for aroid by midnight.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 3:11 pm
Regarding Javy getting pulled in the 6th and re-inserted in the 7th, isn’t that the new managing stratagem that Cito Gaston’s working on?
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June 23rd, 2009 at 3:15 pm
You know how sometimes when you get a cold, it can transform into a nasty sinus infection or bronchitis and linger for weeks?
Well, it sounds like that’s like what happened to Votto, only with him it was an inner ear infection morphing into @ paralyzing, dead-father-related panic attacks.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 3:19 pm
A little glad to see it was this site going bats instead of my place of business blocking it. That was my fear. I know, pretty pathetic.
I think I’m starting Miggy/Huff/Blake in my 1b/3b/Util spots tonight and sitting Votto for one night. Too much potential for the others and who knows if Votto’s even faced a lefty for over a month. Is it a mistake to bench Votto on his triumphal return?
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June 23rd, 2009 at 3:20 pm
Yeah i tried getting on RAZZBALL earlier today and it blocked me and said check with the server, who’s the server, how do i checcccckk!!! WTF, don’t take away my razzball!!!! HA!
Grey how many people hit this site?
VOTTO IN THE STARTING LINE UP BABY, I JUST PEE’D IN MY PANTS A LITTLE… NOW IF I CAN GET CQ BACK, OH BUDDY….
It’s called Sex Panther by Odeon. It’s illegal in nine countries… Yep, it’s made with bits of real panther, so you know it’s good.
drink!
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June 23rd, 2009 at 3:20 pm
@Grey: 12-team H2H, all things being equal your LF is Ibanez and your CF is Beltran. You have to choose bewteen Hart and J Upton for the RF spot (Votto ins in the Util – Morneau at 1B).
Which of Upton and Hart do you want for the rest of the year?
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June 23rd, 2009 at 3:20 pm
@Frank Rizzo: i would not sit votto, last time i sat votto i attended the game in cincy and he went yard….. TWICE.
Then he got dizzy and depressed and didn’t play for 30 days!
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June 23rd, 2009 at 3:21 pm
@Tony Y: Yeah, but have YOU recovered?
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@Dingo: Ha!
@Frank Rizzo: I’d sit Blake.
@Tony Y: Ha! About half a million/month.
@Steve: Upton
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June 23rd, 2009 at 3:29 pm
@Tony Y: Really? Miggy’s an auto start and Huff/Blake are both batting cleanup and have actual MLB level talent batting in front of them.
Nice line from Anchorman…..what’s the next line after that?…..”60% of the time, it works every time.”
FYI to all……Heard from Tiger’s insider on the radio while driving home that Detroit may outright release Magglio possibly as soon as the 1st week in July. He’s in the lineup tonight and they stated that this may be his last gasp in the next couple games. Also, I’ve read on MLB trade rumors that the Tigers have sniffed around Colorado asking for Ryan Spilborgh’s availability.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 3:30 pm
@Steve: I’m drinking now. I think thats a NO. HAHA. Or at least something that i’ll remember for a long time.
Texted my one buddy today in our league about votto coming back and he has grady coming back and he said “gradys an all star, votto is just in my head”
HAHAHA… i love votto, just wish the dude was on the field, 126 AB’s and he’s still ranked #165 in yahoo….
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June 23rd, 2009 at 3:32 pm
@Grey: Tough decision to make Grey. Blake has faced Danks before and has gone 5 for 15 against him. And Blake has been lighting up lefties……I’m torn.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 3:32 pm
@Tony Y: I have him on all three of my teams so it’s a big day for me.
@Grey: With JV back, it’s not worth holding Gamel in non keepers now, is it?
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June 23rd, 2009 at 3:33 pm
I’m glad I don’t own Votto because I’m sure I would have talked some shit over the past month and his quotes would have made me feel bad. I don’t know how, as a fantasy owner, you could measure whether he will be fine for the rest of the year.
From rotoworld:
Votto lost his father last August and the grief caught up to him this season as he excelled at the plate without his biggest fan. “There were nights that I couldn’t be alone,” he said. “The one night I was alone – the very first night I was alone – was when I went to the hospital. I couldn’t take it. It just got to the point where I felt I was going to die, really.”
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June 23rd, 2009 at 3:33 pm
@Grey: Nice man this site deserves it, you’d get more hits but I can’t tell my guys in my main league about it… I want to, but I can’t. LOL
@Frank Rizzo: yeah ya gotta start miggy of course, and I’d say start HUFF, its just every time i miss out on starting a guy like votto or whoever, that night they go YA YOOOO…. i’d start blake over HUFF, but huff and votto right now are a toss up, once votto is back, you might wanna think about moving somebody….
Although votto could get dizzy or depressed and quit at any moment.
TITS MCGHEE
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June 23rd, 2009 at 3:34 pm
@Steve: In my deep league i just snagged up gamel in the past week, i’m gonna hold him a little longer, he seems to be putting it together a little…. i hate that i have hardy, gamel and mcghee and i’m just kinda benching them all seeing what happens….
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June 23rd, 2009 at 3:36 pm
@Scott: WOW i efffff’n called it, i said a while ago there was something more, did the guys brother die, his fiance, his mom???? SOMETHING….
That at least makes sense, F, why couldn’t they post that shizz about a month ago so i didn’t get so pissed, now i feel bad, but i had a feeling there was way more than just “depression” outta no where….
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@Tony Y: Nice line.
@Frank Rizzo: Yeah, it’s tough, but Votto’s less dizzy.
@Steve: Lose him.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Howard is suiting up tonight too, plus i just acquired johan recently…
I’m smiling, you can’t see it but i am, maybe its my team, maybe its the 3rd margarita i’m downing, i dont know….
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June 23rd, 2009 at 3:40 pm
votto is only 29% started tonight in yahoo leagues….
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June 23rd, 2009 at 3:44 pm
@Tony Y: Yeah I remembered something like that from one of the commenters, couldn’t remember who though. I assumed the Reds front office knew and didn’t want Tom Rinaldi (ESPN’s merchant of death – when he’s around and the piano is playing, you know someone is dying) or someone knocking down his door for a father’s day interview special.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 3:45 pm
@Scott: Yeah kinda better it didn’t get out before. Hopefully the dudes better now. I couldn’t imagine. He’s only 25.
Go votto!
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June 23rd, 2009 at 3:59 pm
Howard or Berkman + (Lind or Ludwick)
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June 23rd, 2009 at 4:02 pm
@Doug Ault: @Grey: Perhaps Reyes is a reincarnation of Rube Waddell, who according to baseball legend ran off the mound in the middle of a game in order to run after a fire truck…
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June 23rd, 2009 at 4:07 pm
@Frank Rizzo: That would make the situation easier on me. Somehow, I have not been able to push the delete button on Maggs, as I don’t like pissing away a 5th round draft choice,
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June 23rd, 2009 at 4:08 pm
Grey – starting Scherzer?
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@I’m Keith Hernandez: I’d take Berkman/Lind then Ludwick.
@Paulie Allnuts: Ha!
@Steve: I am.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 4:34 pm
votto K in first ab, booooo
haha j/k
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June 23rd, 2009 at 4:35 pm
@Grey: Please rate in order: Reinhold, Blanks, Mayberry, Fox
Thanks
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@Paulie Allnuts: Reimold, Fox….
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June 23rd, 2009 at 6:07 pm
Zumaya just threw a pitch clocked at 104.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 6:09 pm
Brad Hawpe for Stephen Drew and Cory Hart?
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@Bob: I’d take the Drew side.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 6:13 pm
@Scott: Doesn’t mean shit when you blow Edwin’s win though.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 6:17 pm
Wandy or Cain and by how much?
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June 23rd, 2009 at 6:29 pm
D. Price –
Showcase Showdown
showcase #1
you are bidding on 10runs – 5 earned
showcase #2
you are bidding on 2 walks issured – 2 homeruns given up and 4 innings pitched
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@I’m Keith Hernandez: Coin flip, I’d take Wandy by a hair.
@Mr Baseball: Can I pass one of those to the other person?
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June 23rd, 2009 at 6:32 pm
Bruce, you picked a fine time to start hitting lefties on the road!
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June 23rd, 2009 at 6:37 pm
need to drop one, Liriano, MacDougal, Quentin. Thanks for all the advice today….. The new Shea is so overrated! Corporate paradise……. Yuck
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June 23rd, 2009 at 6:43 pm
@Grey: Is Scutaro worth a 3rd waiver pickup? My option is to continue to rotate hot FA schmohawks; i.e., Adam Kennedy, Hairston, McGehee, et al.
Thanks in advance.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 6:47 pm
Gregg just blew a save – 2 run dinger by Rayburn
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June 23rd, 2009 at 6:58 pm
Who’s next in line in Florida? Nunez has been sucking equally. Meyer?
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@I’m Keith Hernandez: MacDougal
@Paulie Allnuts: I’d grab Scutaro.
@Ham: I don’t think it gets as deep as Meyer, but he would probably be after Nunez.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 7:12 pm
Anyone know what’s going on with the CLE game? Yahoo has it 5-5 in the 9th, mlb.com and ESPN have it done at 5-4, CLE wins. Seems like a screw up beyond even yahoo.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 7:13 pm
@Ham: Nunez also tweaked an ankle in this game.
I don’t think Lindstrom gets yanked yet but I don’t think he finishes the month as the Marlins closer.
In a related story: WIETERS!!!!
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June 23rd, 2009 at 7:15 pm
Leo Nunez left tonight’s game with a right ankle sprain. He’s day-to-day.
Can someone punch me for benching Kuroda?
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June 23rd, 2009 at 7:20 pm
The Crap Meter – We play these players night after night because -Because Crap is Not Better than Nothing
Mr Baseball Tuesday Night Crap Meter
Matt Lindstrom
K. Gregg
D Price
M. Owings
J. Zumaya
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June 23rd, 2009 at 7:22 pm
Joel Piniero just 2 hit the Triple A Mets affiliate.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 7:26 pm
71 Doc Says:
Leo Nunez left tonight’s game with a right ankle sprain. He’s day-to-day.
Can someone punch me for benching Kuroda?
sending over Mike Tyson Doc
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@Paulie Allnuts: That’s whatevermeyer should’ve done yesterday.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 7:48 pm
Just got offered Kemp for Hamels…… Accept? I need an OF, this would make my staff. J. Johnson, Wainwright, Oswalt, Baker, Liriano, Wandy
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@I’m Keith Hernandez: It’s fair, if you need an outfielder.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 7:52 pm
I know this is a few days late, but would you deal Pence or Lind for Rollins at this point? Which one of those two would you rather keep? I’m hurting at SS, but dealing either of those guys will leave me somewhat thin at OF as well.
@I’m Keith Hernandez: Nice handle. Also, deal Hamels. Don’t trust him to not break down again. Your staff looks pretty solid anyway.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 8:04 pm
@: Grey: I really wrestling with this one. In a mid-season league, I’ve got a starting staff of Gallardo, Josh Johnson, and Slowey, plus Bedard, Smoltz, and Tommy Hanson. Should I drop anybody to pick up Francisco Liriano or John Danks, or go with what I’ve got? Thanks in advance.
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@Bob: They’re ownable but I’d hold tight. It’s a tough call and I could see dropping Smoltz for Danks.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 8:14 pm
Mad Max Scherzer really bringing it tonite. BTW, probably not news here but looks like Webby is probably out for the year. There’s some question if the Dbacks even pick up his option year at this point.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 8:17 pm
@Grey: Thanks.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 8:20 pm
Is it useless to keep Price? He has not done much of anything. Danks and Floyd are both available.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 8:22 pm
I know this a day or two behind the ball, but would you deal Pence or Lind for Rollins at this point? Which of those two would you rather sell right now? I need a serious upgrade at SS, but dealing one of those two would leave me a bit thin at OF.
@ I’m Keith Hernandez: Nice handle. I’d take Kemp. I don’t trust Hamels to hold up for the rest of the season.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 8:24 pm
Scott Hairston or Luke Scott?
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@Robert: I’d hold him.
@Steve: Scott
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June 23rd, 2009 at 8:29 pm
@Grey: Yea, but CBS jinxed him.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 8:30 pm
@Robert: I bet he’ll get Kazmir’d
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June 23rd, 2009 at 8:30 pm
file this under ==> “can’t win for trying”
my guy (uehara) vs my guy (miller) .
wtf .
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June 23rd, 2009 at 8:39 pm
Nick Johnson for Chipper Jones, who wins?
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June 23rd, 2009 at 8:48 pm
Is there more of a letdown than having your guy come to the plate with the bases juiced and all he can manage is a sac fly?
Of course he could strike out looking, but you know what I mean.
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@Corey: Jones
@Steve: Yeah, agreed.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 8:54 pm
it’s tough to say , because he always dresses like a slob , but did manny look noticeably thinner wearing the isotopes uniform tonight ?
loss of muscle mass ??
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June 23rd, 2009 at 9:06 pm
What type of pitcher should I ask for chipper?
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June 23rd, 2009 at 9:32 pm
Someone in the Padres bullpen needs to get a grip here…
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June 23rd, 2009 at 9:36 pm
ian stewart’s defense is costing ubaldo and the rockies the game .
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June 23rd, 2009 at 9:45 pm
Haren and Johan or Hamels, Lester and Nolasco?
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June 23rd, 2009 at 9:52 pm
@Grey: Kawakami, Thompson, Nieve, Richmond or Geer tomorrow.
Don’t NEED to start any of ‘em…
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@Corey: F-Her maybe? Wainwright?
@Dim: Johan side.
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@Steve: Don’t start any.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 9:56 pm
@Grey: Thanks. Now can you stop the bleeding in Seattle?
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June 23rd, 2009 at 10:00 pm
@Grey: Start my buddies 15 year old kid there, he was outstanding at GNC park tonight
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June 23rd, 2009 at 10:01 pm
@Steve: OOps, that was sposed to be directed at you.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 10:03 pm
@Steve: Exhales.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 10:17 pm
@Paulie Allnuts: You do know I’ll be scouring the web for Rube Waddell folklore and collectables
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June 23rd, 2009 at 10:27 pm
Charlie O would have signed him to the A’s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ol1nQeHLRvo
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June 23rd, 2009 at 10:30 pm
@Grey: You like Correia as a 5 or 6 guy in mixed 12 teamers?
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@Doug Ault: Nice
@Steve: Sure
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June 23rd, 2009 at 10:52 pm
What’s Scott Hairston’s worth? Is it worth dropping Huff for Stewart in order to use Hairston in the UTIL spot? Or dropping Stewart for Hairston? I also have Juan Rivera in OF, but I’m having a hard time knowing what to do with him, as he’s been pretty good. Thanks
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@Prince: I’d lose Rivera first out of those guys, but not for Hairston, so hold tight.
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June 23rd, 2009 at 11:14 pm
@Grey: Thanks as always
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June 24th, 2009 at 9:22 am
since my era and whip stink already and wang was the opponent,i went with hanson and liked it,the small increase in whip didnt hurt at all,plus in the new 1/2 way league i had danks and kuroda get me off to a great start,especially since pitching is always my weakness,i took greys advice in the new draft and didnt take a pitcher till late,my RCL peavy hammels bedard havnt really done what you need from early draft picks,see if this works better,
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June 24th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
I give up Cuddyer and Carpenter to get MArkakis and Lowe. Does that have a shot or should I try Jurrjens and Cuddyer for Markakis ?
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