Fantasy Baseball Advice

As of May 13th, Eric Hosmer has started his early MLB career slashing .280/.387/.600 in 25 at-bats with 2 home runs, 5 RBI and a 7:5 K:BB ratio. Granted, it’s a small sample size but his start reminds me of two recent rookies who were similarly hyped: Jay Bruce and Ryan Braun. Bruce was called up and went 15 for 29 with 3 home runs, 7 RBI with a 2:7 K:BB ratio from late May to the first two days of June. Bruce’s June slash-line: .223/.274/.340 in 103 ABs. By year end, he finished with a .254/.314/.453 slash line for the year. Braun started 6 for 27 with 1 home run, 4 RBI with a 8:0 K:BB ratio. Braun went on to hit .382/.435/.716 in 102 at-bats during June and finished with a .324/.370/.634 in 451 at-bats (2007). I wouldn’t be surprised to have him perform at a level between the beginnings of Braun and Bruce rookie years. But, and there’s always a but, keep expectations tempered and be prepared for pitchers start finding his weaknesses. Other notable prospects to watch for:

Mike Minor/Julio Teheran | ATL | SP (AAA): With Brandon Beachy straining his oblique in his Friday start, it’s speculated that Minor or Teheran fill-in while Beachy is on the DL. Either pitcher should be picked up.

Domonic Brown | PHI | RF (AAA): Sprained UCL in right thumb – same hand with broken Hamate bone. He will miss 5 to 7 days.

Anthony Rizzo | SD | 1B (AAA): With 10 home runs and a slash of .377/.447/.708 in 131 at-bats. He has been slowly regressing towards the mean while staying hot. Grey made recommendation to pick up in NL-Only leagues for the time being, until he’s called up. Concur, with the addition of deep leagues. As June nears, I would start eying the possibility of picking him up.

Desmond Jennings | TB | CF (AAA): Has hit two home runs in last two games and is proving he belongs in the majors. His K:BB ratio is 28:21 in 130 at-bats. The strikeouts are uncharacteristically high for Jennings. The power potential scouts have been hoping for is starting to show with 5 home runs, not to mention eight steals in as many attempts. Expect a June call-up. He’s deserving.

Bryce Harper | WAS | RF (A): He should be promoted to High-A soon as he has 19 XBH (8 Hr) with 6 steals and a .390/.467/.686 slash line in 118 at-bats. He’s been everything everyone had expected.

Brett Jackson | CHC | CF (AA): Was placed on DL with strained ligament in left pinky caused by sliding into second base on 5/11/11. Time frame is currently unknown.

Fernando Martinez | NYM | CF (AAA): Called up for Friday’s game to fill Angel Pagan’s roster spot and hit a pinch-hit home run. Collins plans to use him as a bench player. You’d think that a solid prospect hitting .292/.361/.477 would at least get a chance to plan more than occasionally. Expect to see him sent back down when Pagan returns from the DL.

Andy Dirks | DET | OF (AAA): With Magglio Ordonez going on the DL, he received the call up after .328/.375/.527 with six home runs. A good contact hitter with gap power (12 to 15 home run ceiling). Struggles versus left-handed pitchers. Upside for career is fourth-outfielder. For more information see Detroit Tigers 2010 Minor League Review.

Brett Lawrie | TOR | 3B (AAA): Has hit 4 home runs in last 10 games as his average is regressing to the mean. Still a strong play for third when called up. Think Pedro Alvarez. (Rudy to Grey: So does that mean Lawrie will f*** our 2012 teams like Alvarez has f***ed our 2011 teams? If so, now we just need to not draft him and “the next Morneau” and we’re set!)

Trayvon Robinson | LAD | OF (AAA): Not sold on him contributing this year with 38 strikeouts in 122 at-bats with only average power and 4 SBs (Rudy: He has 7 HRs in PCL but that league is like Coors Field pre-humidor. Wily Mo Pena has 13 HRs so far this year!). Defensively has good range but a fringe-average arm. If Robinson starts to make more contact, could be a Rajai Davis or Willy Taveras type player. Don’t expect until September as his game needs more refinement.

Jesus Montero | NYY | C/DH (AAA): The smooth hitting Montero has been lacing base-hits all over the field this year hitting .325/.350/.421 in 121 at-bats. His 2 home runs, 5 doubles and 25:5 K:BB ratio are disappointing. At only 21 years old, the power should develop but at this point he’s a poor man’s Joe Mauer. With Jorge Posada showing his age (Rudy: and grumpy old manness on Saturday), Montero could provide a jolt of youth and minor pop in the near future.

Brandon Allen | ARI | 1B (AAA): Has warmed up after starting slowly. Has 2 home runs, 2 triples and 2 doubles, 10 RBI and hitting .355/.475/.742 in last 31 at-bats (10 games). Overall, hitting .313/.413/.531 in 128 at-bats with 5 home runs but with 34 strikeouts. The average wont stay this high, the strikeouts are expected, and the power is starting to come around. (Rudy: That said, the Diamondbacks still prefer Juan Miranda, Russell Branyan, Xavier Nady, and Gerardo Parra. Grrr!)

Carlos Beltran won’t play in day games following night games.  He won’t play in too many games in a row.  He won’t play in games where the other team’s starting pitcher’s last name ends in an N.  Here’s me playing the world’s smallest violin for everyone at Metco.  Since Beltran’s return, 1 homer and zero steals.  So he’s not running and he’s hitting for an empty average with little power.  There’s no crying in baseball and there’s no sentimentality in fantasy baseball.  If you’re holding onto your 2nd round pick because you held him this long already, well, you’ve held him too long.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Anibal Sanchez – 8 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 7 Ks.  If Oliver Perez is the crazy girlfriend that you have hot passionate sex with but is afraid may stab you in the jugular in the middle of the night, then Anibal is her sister.  (If you followed that, give yourself a gold star.)

Dan Uggla – Hit his 30th homer yesterday as the Marlins rubbed their hands together thinking about who they were going to get for Uggla this offseason.

Joe Blanton – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Threw a gem against the Marlins.  I overthought this one and… sonavabench!  Should’ve just started him.  (BTW, is overthought one word or two?  There I go again!)

Hiroki Kuroda – 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks.  He was in the borderline starters post on Monday.  He’s a decent start on Sunday too.

Rafael Furcal – 4-for-5, 4 RBIs.  No one plays harder when you’re playing against a terrible team with a playoff spot sewn up.  No one.

Zach Duke – So this borderline starter didn’t work out quite as well.  You take Zach Duke to the cashier and she rings you up six innings and five earned runs.  That’s the price of playing sucky guys, I guess.

Trevor Cahill – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER.  And my final borderline starter for yesterday worked out okay as I finally learned to not bet against the A’s.

Andrew McCutchen – The Dread Pirate hit his 12th homer yesterday in 3/4 of a season.  *sipping tea with my pinkie out, crossing legs*  Do you dare draft The Dread Pirate and Robot Jones on the same fantasy team next year?

Edwin Encarnacion – 2 HRs, but whoa, turkey, guess what else?  He batted third.  Zoinks!

Brian McCann – Left the game with a bruised wrist, which is not nearly as delicious as a braised wrist.

Martin Prado – Now batting near .500 in the last week and the hits just keep coming as he went 2-for-4 yesterday.

Jorge de la Rosa – 2 1/3 IP, 6 ER as dlR pitched his worst start since June.  You’re killing me, Smalls!

Carlos Gonzalez – Pulled from the game with a tight hamstring.  Car(No)Go, as it were.

Huston Street – Came on in the 7th.  Yeah, he’s not the closer yet.

Franklin Morales – Got the save as he gave up three inherited runs and one of his own.  So, yeah, Street may be the closer again soon.

Brad Hawpe – Hit a homer yesterday.  If you would’ve told me he retired two months ago, I might’ve believed you.

Alex Rios – HR yesterday.  If you bet that Rios and Hawpe would hit a homer on the same day, that’s like Powerball money you just won.

John Danks – 6 IP, 7 ER.  Showing de la Rosa two can play the “I Hate My Fantasy Owners Game,” he had his worst start since May.   After the game, Danks tweeted, “I pitched.  #sucky”

Bobby Jenks – Probably done for the year with a calf injury (with his size you’d think they’d call it a cow).  Linebrink would probably step in for any saves.

Adam Dunn – Hit his 38th homer yesterday.  We have a week and a half for Dunn to hit two more homers or the world will explode.

Matt Cain – 2 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  Now really isn’t the time for that regression that every fantasy baseball ‘pert has been predicting since May.

Randy Wells – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  According to Cubs fans, without Milton Bradley telling opposing hitters which pitches are coming, the Cubs are unstoppable.

Prince Fielder – Hit his 41st homer yesterday as he tied Pujols for the RBI lead with 129.  Going into the final weekend, if Prince is still neck-and-neck with Pujols, Albert should buy seats for Cecil Fielder right behind the Brewers dugout.  (For those in the back of the room, Cecil and Prince don’t get along.)  Devious Grey out.

What up, Razzball Nation!

I’ve been away for a couple weeks touring around Italy. I saw the town where the Baldellis have been contracting mitochondrial diseases for centuries, watched as Pete Incaviglia’s cousin used a vicious uppercut to generate topspin for a winning bocce roll, and took part in a old-fashioned Tommy Lasorda pasta crawl (I did NOT need that last plate of penne arrabiata…)

While away, my fantasy teams were left to fare on their own. One expert league team that just never got into second gear this year got called out by another blogger (what, who knew Joe Torre would hate on Pierre so much?) and my other expert league team fell from 1st to 5th (but I’m still in contention). In fact, all my teams did bad while I was away….which turned out just fine for my Razzball team…

Yes, I’ve snuck ahead of Grey with 3 weeks left to go in the inaugural Razzball season – 94.5 points to 94 (out of 120). Our friendly rival Mike from the FB Generals is still in the running at 88 points and the rest of the crew are poised to be spoilers as most of the categories are still very close.

How close is this battle? If Grey had one less run (or I had one more), he’d be in first. Crazy. And the points I’ve gained in ERA/WHIP by inching up to 4.89/1.49 can disappear with a quality start or two.

Stay tuned…

Nothing fires up leaguemates more than trades. Accusations of collusion, usury, and stupidity get thrown around like grenades. Everyone loves a good drama but this verbal warfare is usually more irksome than anything. Since collusion is so hard to prove, here are some general principles for gauging a trade and how I would react to trades that violated these principles:

1) The player(s) on either side of the trade should be within reasonable value to each other. This is the most basic test of the trade. Stripped of all context (what does each team need?), is the trade within reason? This doesn’t mean you feel the trade is balanced. I almost always prefer one side of a trade vs. the other. But everyone has their own perspective on players and you have to respect that. So if someone thinks it is worth trading Carlos Lee for Alex Rios, I would disagree but it’s within reason. If they traded Carlos Lee for Alex Cintron, it’s unreasonable. Basically, If you have a shred of doubt, it’s reasonable.

2) Both trading partners should be equally responsive to trades. We all play in leagues where some people are closer than others. We all play in leagues where perhaps two people are bitter rivals and/or don’t get along so are unlikely to ever agree on a trade. These are just the realities of leagues. But there are cases where players basically go MIA in a league. They make roster changes infrequently at best. They don’t respond to trade offers, etc. When this type of player ends up making a trade with someone they are friends with in the league, this is unfair.

3) The trade should help both teams. Even the most lopsided of trades can sometimes be justified based on team needs. “Yes, I overpaid for a closer but I can make up 3 points with just 10 saves!” And there are cases where one player (not a serious one, mind you) will make a trade simply because they really like a player. Fair enough. But, independent of the value from each side of the trade, the trade should not make a team worse off in terms of accumulating the most points (Roto) or wins (H2H). Since the point of a single-season league is to accumulate the most points, such a move can’t help but evoke suspicion in other leaguemates. The easy litmus test is if such a trade was done by two friends, would you suspect collusion?

Rudy’s recommended courses of action:

Veto – This should ONLY be used in the case of a clear violation in #1. It helps to ask someone outside the league to get a more impartial opinion. I don’t even recall the last time I vetoed a trade – had to have been at least a couple years ago.

Give Leaguemates Shit For It – This is my tactic for close cases on #1 as well as #2 and #3. There are levels to it, though. In one expert league this year, there was a trade of Vlad for Michael Bourn and Moises Alou. Ridiculous trade in my eyes as Vlad easily provides more value. But it was close enough when you factor in Bourn’s speed that I didn’t want to veto. So I posted this on the message board “…I can’t be the only one thinking Vlad for Bourn and Alou is a questionable trade? That is, unless 0-fers and DL Trips were added as categories…” The Vlad side did their best to justify the trade but there’s no doubt he knows they got the better end. In my cash league, if it’s one of my two biggest rivals (Grey and L-Dog), I’ll do anything I can to elicit guilt or anger. Grey pulled a MASSIVE #2 trade last year, getting Reyes for Vlad from his friend who wouldn’t respond to our trades. He just pulled a massive #3 trade this year getting Braun for Crawford from a team that was 9th in RBI, whose top OF is Ichiro, and has no other 3B option waiting in the wings. I’ve given him shit. I keep giving him shit. I will keep giving him shit.

Don’t Play With the ‘Loser’ Side of the Trade Again – A team who is on the losing side of a #1 trade is probably a very weak player. If you’re playing in a big money cash league, I’d keep the cow in the league. If it’s for minor stakes or no money, boot them out. In the case of #2, a team that’s unresponsive to trades and doesn’t keep their roster current is useless anyway. Making trades with friends just makes it that much easier to not play with them again. For #3, this is the same rationale as #1.

Don’t Play With the ‘Winner’ Side of the Trade Again – This is a much tougher call since this person is likely competitive. If I strongly suspected collusion, I wouldn’t play with them again. If they repeatedly make lopsided offers or trades that don’t help the other side, they usually alienate or neutralize leaguemates enough to correct these practices. I would lean towards the ‘Giving Shit’ response as well as loosening up your trading principles if they are higher than such leaguemates.

The Fantasy Baseball Generals take a look at the ADPs of some 3rd basemen they feel are being over- and undervalued. I agree with their assessments of everyone, except Hank Blalock who they say is being undervalued. I think he’s simply being valued. I’d like to see him do something worthwhile one of these years besides fill up my DL spot before drafting him. Anyway, the rest of their post is a great read, check it out.

Corey Patterson landed with the Reds cause Dusty loves him some bad OBP guys in the leadoff spot. Let me look into my crystal ball real quick… I see… Sometime in July…. Hold on, Dunn’s standing in front of my foresight…. Hard to see anything…. Ah, now I see it…. Dusty lets Harang throw 140 pitches on the way to a 2-1 loss. After the game, Harang says he feels fine then he punches me in the mouth. What the new Patterson schema means, Jay Bruce starts the year in the minors, Freel and Hopper split time against lefties and Patterson makes a run at 25/40/.260. And you thought only Krispie Young could approach those numbers!

The Roto Professor breaks down how Oliver Perez can help you this year. I agree; great win potential, massive strikeout potential and he’s still very young (26). If you can grab Perez late in your draft, you absolutely should. Just grab Marmol or Betancourt to balance out your WHIP-lash.

Miguel Batista wants to interview God now that he’s had Kenny G perform for him. I’d say this is enough reason to avoid him at your draft.

Finally, the Fantasy Hurler’s in a nostalgic mood thinking back at utterly useless players that, like Tonya, had no real world value, but some fantasy value. He reminiscences about what Matthew LeCroy meant to him. I’ve had a few Alex Sanchezes along the way when I needed steals, and I grabbed Tad when Chase went down last year. But my favorite Matthew LeCroy is Adrian Beltre, even though he’s not really a Matthew LeCroy because he’s not useless in everyone else’s eyes, just mine. I had Beltre for his inexplicable 48 homer year. I haven’t drafted him since, the same way you don’t return to the craps table where you just made ten points in a row. It ain’t gonna get better than it was.