Fantasy Baseball Advice

Carlos Beltran won’t play in day games following night games.  He won’t play in too many games in a row.  He won’t play in games where the other team’s starting pitcher’s last name ends in an N.  Here’s me playing the world’s smallest violin for everyone at Metco.  Since Beltran’s return, 1 homer and zero steals.  So he’s not running and he’s hitting for an empty average with little power.  There’s no crying in baseball and there’s no sentimentality in fantasy baseball.  If you’re holding onto your 2nd round pick because you held him this long already, well, you’ve held him too long.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Anibal Sanchez – 8 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 7 Ks.  If Oliver Perez is the crazy girlfriend that you have hot passionate sex with but is afraid may stab you in the jugular in the middle of the night, then Anibal is her sister.  (If you followed that, give yourself a gold star.)

Dan Uggla – Hit his 30th homer yesterday as the Marlins rubbed their hands together thinking about who they were going to get for Uggla this offseason.

Joe Blanton – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Threw a gem against the Marlins.  I overthought this one and… sonavabench!  Should’ve just started him.  (BTW, is overthought one word or two?  There I go again!)

Hiroki Kuroda – 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks.  He was in the borderline starters post on Monday.  He’s a decent start on Sunday too.

Rafael Furcal – 4-for-5, 4 RBIs.  No one plays harder when you’re playing against a terrible team with a playoff spot sewn up.  No one.

Zach Duke – So this borderline starter didn’t work out quite as well.  You take Zach Duke to the cashier and she rings you up six innings and five earned runs.  That’s the price of playing sucky guys, I guess.

Trevor Cahill – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER.  And my final borderline starter for yesterday worked out okay as I finally learned to not bet against the A’s.

Andrew McCutchen – The Dread Pirate hit his 12th homer yesterday in 3/4 of a season.  *sipping tea with my pinkie out, crossing legs*  Do you dare draft The Dread Pirate and Robot Jones on the same fantasy team next year?

Edwin Encarnacion – 2 HRs, but whoa, turkey, guess what else?  He batted third.  Zoinks!

Brian McCann – Left the game with a bruised wrist, which is not nearly as delicious as a braised wrist.

Martin Prado – Now batting near .500 in the last week and the hits just keep coming as he went 2-for-4 yesterday.

Jorge de la Rosa – 2 1/3 IP, 6 ER as dlR pitched his worst start since June.  You’re killing me, Smalls!

Carlos Gonzalez – Pulled from the game with a tight hamstring.  Car(No)Go, as it were.

Huston Street – Came on in the 7th.  Yeah, he’s not the closer yet.

Franklin Morales – Got the save as he gave up three inherited runs and one of his own.  So, yeah, Street may be the closer again soon.

Brad Hawpe – Hit a homer yesterday.  If you would’ve told me he retired two months ago, I might’ve believed you.

Alex Rios – HR yesterday.  If you bet that Rios and Hawpe would hit a homer on the same day, that’s like Powerball money you just won.

John Danks – 6 IP, 7 ER.  Showing de la Rosa two can play the “I Hate My Fantasy Owners Game,” he had his worst start since May.   After the game, Danks tweeted, “I pitched.  #sucky”

Bobby Jenks – Probably done for the year with a calf injury (with his size you’d think they’d call it a cow).  Linebrink would probably step in for any saves.

Adam Dunn – Hit his 38th homer yesterday.  We have a week and a half for Dunn to hit two more homers or the world will explode.

Matt Cain – 2 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  Now really isn’t the time for that regression that every fantasy baseball ‘pert has been predicting since May.

Randy Wells – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  According to Cubs fans, without Milton Bradley telling opposing hitters which pitches are coming, the Cubs are unstoppable.

Prince Fielder – Hit his 41st homer yesterday as he tied Pujols for the RBI lead with 129.  Going into the final weekend, if Prince is still neck-and-neck with Pujols, Albert should buy seats for Cecil Fielder right behind the Brewers dugout.  (For those in the back of the room, Cecil and Prince don’t get along.)  Devious Grey out.

What up, Razzball Nation!

I’ve been away for a couple weeks touring around Italy. I saw the town where the Baldellis have been contracting mitochondrial diseases for centuries, watched as Pete Incaviglia’s cousin used a vicious uppercut to generate topspin for a winning bocce roll, and took part in a old-fashioned Tommy Lasorda pasta crawl (I did NOT need that last plate of penne arrabiata…)

While away, my fantasy teams were left to fare on their own. One expert league team that just never got into second gear this year got called out by another blogger (what, who knew Joe Torre would hate on Pierre so much?) and my other expert league team fell from 1st to 5th (but I’m still in contention). In fact, all my teams did bad while I was away….which turned out just fine for my Razzball team…

Yes, I’ve snuck ahead of Grey with 3 weeks left to go in the inaugural Razzball season – 94.5 points to 94 (out of 120). Our friendly rival Mike from the FB Generals is still in the running at 88 points and the rest of the crew are poised to be spoilers as most of the categories are still very close.

How close is this battle? If Grey had one less run (or I had one more), he’d be in first. Crazy. And the points I’ve gained in ERA/WHIP by inching up to 4.89/1.49 can disappear with a quality start or two.

Stay tuned…

Nothing fires up leaguemates more than trades. Accusations of collusion, usury, and stupidity get thrown around like grenades. Everyone loves a good drama but this verbal warfare is usually more irksome than anything. Since collusion is so hard to prove, here are some general principles for gauging a trade and how I would react to trades that violated these principles:

1) The player(s) on either side of the trade should be within reasonable value to each other. This is the most basic test of the trade. Stripped of all context (what does each team need?), is the trade within reason? This doesn’t mean you feel the trade is balanced. I almost always prefer one side of a trade vs. the other. But everyone has their own perspective on players and you have to respect that. So if someone thinks it is worth trading Carlos Lee for Alex Rios, I would disagree but it’s within reason. If they traded Carlos Lee for Alex Cintron, it’s unreasonable. Basically, If you have a shred of doubt, it’s reasonable.

2) Both trading partners should be equally responsive to trades. We all play in leagues where some people are closer than others. We all play in leagues where perhaps two people are bitter rivals and/or don’t get along so are unlikely to ever agree on a trade. These are just the realities of leagues. But there are cases where players basically go MIA in a league. They make roster changes infrequently at best. They don’t respond to trade offers, etc. When this type of player ends up making a trade with someone they are friends with in the league, this is unfair.

3) The trade should help both teams. Even the most lopsided of trades can sometimes be justified based on team needs. “Yes, I overpaid for a closer but I can make up 3 points with just 10 saves!” And there are cases where one player (not a serious one, mind you) will make a trade simply because they really like a player. Fair enough. But, independent of the value from each side of the trade, the trade should not make a team worse off in terms of accumulating the most points (Roto) or wins (H2H). Since the point of a single-season league is to accumulate the most points, such a move can’t help but evoke suspicion in other leaguemates. The easy litmus test is if such a trade was done by two friends, would you suspect collusion?

Rudy’s recommended courses of action:

Veto – This should ONLY be used in the case of a clear violation in #1. It helps to ask someone outside the league to get a more impartial opinion. I don’t even recall the last time I vetoed a trade – had to have been at least a couple years ago.

Give Leaguemates Shit For It – This is my tactic for close cases on #1 as well as #2 and #3. There are levels to it, though. In one expert league this year, there was a trade of Vlad for Michael Bourn and Moises Alou. Ridiculous trade in my eyes as Vlad easily provides more value. But it was close enough when you factor in Bourn’s speed that I didn’t want to veto. So I posted this on the message board “…I can’t be the only one thinking Vlad for Bourn and Alou is a questionable trade? That is, unless 0-fers and DL Trips were added as categories…” The Vlad side did their best to justify the trade but there’s no doubt he knows they got the better end. In my cash league, if it’s one of my two biggest rivals (Grey and L-Dog), I’ll do anything I can to elicit guilt or anger. Grey pulled a MASSIVE #2 trade last year, getting Reyes for Vlad from his friend who wouldn’t respond to our trades. He just pulled a massive #3 trade this year getting Braun for Crawford from a team that was 9th in RBI, whose top OF is Ichiro, and has no other 3B option waiting in the wings. I’ve given him shit. I keep giving him shit. I will keep giving him shit.

Don’t Play With the ‘Loser’ Side of the Trade Again – A team who is on the losing side of a #1 trade is probably a very weak player. If you’re playing in a big money cash league, I’d keep the cow in the league. If it’s for minor stakes or no money, boot them out. In the case of #2, a team that’s unresponsive to trades and doesn’t keep their roster current is useless anyway. Making trades with friends just makes it that much easier to not play with them again. For #3, this is the same rationale as #1.

Don’t Play With the ‘Winner’ Side of the Trade Again – This is a much tougher call since this person is likely competitive. If I strongly suspected collusion, I wouldn’t play with them again. If they repeatedly make lopsided offers or trades that don’t help the other side, they usually alienate or neutralize leaguemates enough to correct these practices. I would lean towards the ‘Giving Shit’ response as well as loosening up your trading principles if they are higher than such leaguemates.

It’s been 5 years since Michael Lewis’s “Moneyball” hit the shelves – making Billy Beane, OBP, and Chad Bradford household names and challenging many of the long-held assumptions about baseball.

But the real game is played on the field and managed by those who wear the uniform. And no one has had an impact on the game itself more than the man who has been coaching for 27 straight seasons: Tony La Russa.

Following are excerpts from ‘Tonyball – Seeing in the Dark’ by Bill Conlin (Philadelphia Daily News, Sports Reports, Baseball Writers Association of American member, voter for HOF, non-fan of Razzball):

Getting the most out of players:

….Most see a player with mediocre statistics and think that means the player is mediocre when often the player is simply mediocre at the role he was given. A manager sometimes needs to block out the bright glare of statistics and envision how the player might perform in another role. A couple of years ago, all the scouts and GMs said the same thing about Marlon Anderson. “League-average second baseman.” Well, under my tutelage in 2004, I showed he had the potential to be a far from average OF………..I met So Taguchi several years back when he was lead developer on my Tony La Russa Baseball video game. I was impressed with his knowledge of the game and commitment to morning calisthenics. Proved to be the second best backup OF I ever had (#1 being Stan Javier)……..I remember the first time I saw Rick Ankiel throw off the mound and I thought “That kind of arm would come in handy in the outfield” I’m not going to say his yips were a blessing in disguise but it would’ve been a lot tougher for me to convince the ‘braintrust’ to let me convert him to an OF. If I really need a starter, I’ll just convert a reliever or a minor league catcher or shortstop. The best pitcher I ever coached was Shawon Dunston – if I had him 10 years earlier, he’d have been a Hall of Fame pitcher.

The role of statistics in managing:

I laugh when I’m stereotyped as an ‘old school’ manager as I am the one who invented the new school. The whole righty/lefty bullpen matchup game was all me. I still get Christmas cards from Rick Honeycutt and Eric Plunk. I put them on the left and right sides of my mantle.

The impact of steroids:

Look, I don’t know that much about drug testing or law enforcement.  I just know what I see and I’ve never seen any of my players use steroids. I think Jose’s (Canseco) book made it clear that he used steroids and he credits them for much of his success….Taking a sober look at his career statistics, I don’t think such an assertion passes the test. It is frankly irresponsible to permit steroids to be the primary driver in such an analysis. Besides raw talent, the main reason for Jose’s success was the above league-level coaching and guidance he received as part of the A’s organization – where, at the time, I was behind the wheel so to speak. I put him in the best position to succeed – OF. I could have put him at catcher or 3B but I knew better. See what happened a year later when Kevin Kennedy in Texas put him at pitcher? Did you notice how many more home runs went off his head once he left Oakland?….What hurts me most is that he smeared the image of Mark (McGwire). Answer me this – if it was steroids and not coaching that led to both of their successes, how come Mark broke the home run record and Jose didn’t?

The handsomely knowing (or is it knowingly handsome?) Bob Taylor over at Fantasy Hurler put together a list of Beasts and Busts for 2008. Can’t say I agree with some of his choices, cause I actually agree with all of his choices. If he read my mind, I’d like to know what I ate for lunch yesterday, because I can’t remember for the life of me. Was it tuna? As stated in earlier posts on this site, Pujols is coming back, Alex Gordon is going to be special, Hanley might lay a turd the size of Lichtenstein, and Ryan Braun is so overhyped he might be coming around to underhyped now.

The Sox and Pinstripes blog, which manages to balance the Yanks and the Sox all under one blog, takes a look at the opening month of ’08 for the Sox. They open in Japan (I wonder if Dice K’s translator gets a paid vacation) against the A’s then take on contender after contender and the Rangers.