Fantasy Baseball Advice

The save vulture is a scavenger bird.  They see weakness in others’ misfortune.  A closer goes down or struggles and the save vulture swoops in and gnaws on the closer’s handcuff.  Peck, Brandon League, peck.  The save vultures are indigenous to rural and metropolitan areas, especially if a trade is in progress.  Goodbye, Rauch.  Hello, Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard and Sean Burnett.  Save vultures have trouble reproducing because they’re usually overweight guys who would prefer to listen to sports news than what the girl they’re dating is talking about.  “How does my manicure look?”  “Very pretty, Joel Hanrahan.”   “Did you just call me, Joel Hanrahan?”  “No.”  Kevin Gregg, Kerry Wood, Joakim Soria any of them can be traded in the next 24 hours.  If you need saves, there won’t be many saves coming into the league after the trade deadline.  If you need closers, now is the time to swoop, save vultures.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Domonic Brown – If I keep talking about Domonic, I’m gonna have to do a spin-off blog, Razzbrown.  My Domonic Brown fantasy is clickable.

Tyler Colvin – I told you to pick him up on June 18th.  Since then, 19/9/20/.250/1.  Yeah, that’s better than Werth, Vlad, Torii, Grandy, Alfonso and a ton of other guys.

Chris Denorfia – By the time you read this he might already be cold and not worth owning.  There’s a difference between someone like Colvin and Denorfia.  Denorfia is a random outfielder who just happens to be hot, Colvin’s actually decent.

Andres Torres – Why do you make me talk about the same guy for three weeks and then by the time you pick him up he’s no longer good?  This is a trust exercise.  Fall back into my arms.  I promise to keep my mustache to myself.

Brett Wallace – Here’s what I said this morning, “Getting passed around…” “…like a trollop…” “Berkman” “is” “different cities.”   My Zagat quote skills are strong!  Here’s my Brett Wallace fantasy without the clunky quotes.

Jon Jay – His minor league numbers look like he’s unstartable against lefties (.180 vs. the same side, .404 vs. righties), but he’s actually relieved Rasmus vs. southpaws because he’s hitting the scrammy-handed at a .474 clip.  But, as I tell the ladies, beware the small sample size.  Jon Jay should get exploited the more he sees the ‘ones who need special scissors.’  That makes Jay a platoon guy without an injury.  Grab him now since he’s hitting everything and La Russa seems to like him, but don’t be surprised if it’s short-lived.

Travis Snider – Time to get randy on Travis.  He’s due to finally return from his sore right wrist.  Usually I’d be worried about a wrist injury, but Snider pulled a Kotchman and has been recuperating since May 15th.  His wrist better be, uh, better by now.  Plus, who couldn’t love a guy who resembles this guy?

Travis Wood – Sticking with the Travis theme… There is no wrong, there is no right… The circle has one side, side, side… Wait, wrong Travis theme.  So how much can Wood chuck if Wood could maintain his BABIP?  A bunch, but it seems unlikely. Wood gets the Pirates next and he’s pitched well enough where you can take a flyer on him.

Scott Olsen – Yesterday’s game picked up right where he left off as a respectable number five fantasy starter.  He gets the Diamondhacks next, that’s a ‘Yes’ with a dollop of ‘Please.’

Brett Myers – With a line of 3.10/1.22/113 on the year, you should’ve really grabbed him four months ago, but it’s not too late.

Michael Wuertz – Bailey’s not getting traded, but he’s also not getting healthy.

Danny Valencia – Grab him if you’re hurting for a corner infidel, but his Kevin Maas-shaped candle might’ve already burned out.

Will Rhymes – SAGNOF!

Logan Morrison – Just went over my Logan Morrison fantasy a few days ago.  Nothing’s changed — LoMo Hitado!

Ryan Raburn – Green Raburn asks, “Magglio Ordonez is so hurt he _____________” However you fill in that blank, Raburn has pop and should see playing time.

SELL

Edison Volquez – Don’t be the person that says in the comments, “You can’t sell Volquez!  He’s not worth anything!”  As I said in the beginning of the year, the Sell isn’t always literal.  It also means to drop him.  In non-keepers, you let someone else see if Volquez can figure it out.

Troy Glaus – Playing first base has helped him stay in the lineup.  Unfortunately, you probably wish he were hurt for the last two months.

Dan Uggla – July was his biggest month since May of 2008.  It was his first month since then that he had an average over .300.  He currently sits at 22 homers.  Maybe he has another good week, but he’s never kept up the rate he’s currently on and I don’t think he suddenly will.  I wouldn’t trade him for your nana’s Jell-O mold collection, but I’d listen to offers.

Chris Davis is so easy to strike out that pitchers should let him get a 4th or 5th strike like you’d give the small-for-his-age kid in little league.  “Good cut, Chris!”  Then the parent who needs anger management screams, “It’s on a freakin’ tee!  Hit the damn ball!”  Davis is also so easy to strike out the Rangers felt like they needed to go out and get someone who is marginally better.  Enter Jorge Cantu.  Or as I like to call him, the guy I told you to sell back at the end of April when his value was at its highest.  Cantu gets a boost in value because he’s now going to be hitting in a lineup with Giant Machine and Hulk Machine, while calling Coors South home.  I’d grab Cantu off waivers if I was hurting at my corner infidel spot.  Meanwhile, Chris Davis heads to the minors to try and reclaim that glory that had Bill James projecting him for, like, 40 homers and 10 steals.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ian Kinsler – Back to the DL with a strained groin and could be out until the end of August.  Who had July 29th in the ‘Kinsler goes back on DL’ pool?  Kinsler’s officially dropping way down in 2011 drafts.  He might be the fourth Ranger drafted next year.  I smell a sleeper post about him from January Grey.  January Grey, “Leave me alone, I’m watching Jersey Shore.”

Brett Wallace – It’s ironic he’s only a 1st base prospect because he’s getting passed around the majors like a trollop who’s been a lot farther than 1st base.  For those keeping score, he’s gone from STL to OAK in the Matt Holliday deal, OAK to TOR for OF prospect Michael Taylor (whom Toronto got in the Halladay deal), and now from TOR to HOU for OF prospect Anthony Gose.  The book on Walllace is he’s a great hitter with a bad glove (hence the move from 3B to 1B).  Now it’s one thing when STL trades a 1B (when they have Pujols) or when Oakland trades a 1B (Billy Beane likes to keep busy) but when the Lyle Overbay-playing Blue Jays trade a 1B prospect one has to wonder.  Is something wrong here 0r is the Jays GM, Alex the Greek just opa’ing prospects into the fireplace?  Either way, Lance Berkman looks like he’s about to embark on the Casino Bus.  If Wallace gets called up, he’s immediately mixed league material.  He hit 18 homers in 385 minor league ABs this year.  Though it was in the PCL.  BTW, this is the longest blurb ever for a roundup.  I don’t even remember who I was talking about.  Oh, Brett Wallace!  Yeah, he can hit, grab him now in NL-Only leagues, deep mixed leagues and keepers, just in case he’s called up.

Matt Capps – Traded to the Twins for Wilson Ramos, a top catching prospect, and Joe Testa, who throws straight gas, but is still very young.  Look at the Nats making moves!  Too bad Bowden wasn’t still around, he would’ve never stood for that.  As much as I’d prefer to talk about how the Nats can be a serious contender in two years, this is after all a fantasy blog.  If you’re really desperate for saves, I’d hold Rauch just in case he sees some chances or if you need rebounds (he’s tall!), but the Minnesota papers are reporting Capps will close.  I tend to believe the Minnesotans, salt of the earth people yadda².  Also, if Capps doesn’t close, then it looks even worse that the Twins traded those prospects away.  Gotta keep up appearances, ya know?

Miguel Tejada – Traded to the Padres to play….where?  He could play shortstop with the range of Cal Ripken but that dude’s 50 years old.  He could play 3B and move Headley back to the OF, but is Tejada really a better bat than the Padres worst corner OF?  Maybe, and that’s just sad.

Josh Bell – Will replace Tejada at 3rd base for the Suckie O’s.  Bell’s AL-Only ownable, which is saying very little since Daric Barton is AL-Only material.  Bell needs to get hot before picking up in mixed leagues, or, if you speak street, he needs to be fire on Crunk Juice.

Michael Wuertz – Now Bailey’s headed to the DL.  Wuertz has shown himself to be pretty adept at blowing save opportunities, so he’s no sure thing, but Breslow is?  As German prostitutes like to say, I grabbed Wuertz.  (BTW, whenever I think of a German prostitute, I picture a woman that could have easily been a female wrestler if she just got a few breaks.)

Neil Walker – 1-for-4 with his 5th homer and 2nd in three games.  I’ve knocked him a bunch, but when you’re looking at a Pu-Pu Platter of middle infielders, Walker’s at least hitting.

Matt Diaz – First time I was able to get Diaz into my lineup because it was a short schedule day and he homered.  That’s how you roll the Dye-as!

Miguel Montero – 4 for his last 8 with a homer yesterday.  Instead of just letting their catcher scabs be, I’ve noticed people are dropping Montero.  He could have a solid final two months.

Ian Desmond – 2-for-3 with his 7th homer.  Please make note of this next year when you’re drafting.  A 10/10 guy looks good when you’re drafting him, but when you’re actually waiting for him to get to 10/10 it’s mind numbingly boring.

Scott Olsen – 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 1 K.  He’ll be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  And that’s a promise or my name isn’t Grey “El Toro” Albright.

Drew Storen – Clippard’s been a hot mess for a while now, so I’d grab Storen for saves.  If you’re really hurting for saves, I’d grab Clippard too.  If you’re really, really hurting for saves, I’d grab Sean Burnett. (And I did grab Clippard and Burnett in some leagues — My name is Grey “El Toro” Albright and I am a save vulture.  Please forgive me if I have told you to pick up a guy that has shat on your ratios.  I am powerless to my vulturing.  Anyone got some coffee and cigarettes?)

Ramon Castro – Hit 2 homers yesterday.  Appropriate of nothing, doesn’t his goatee look like a sideways yin and yang symbol?  Maybe it’s me.

Carlos Quentin – 2-for-4 with his 20th home run.  Sweet, now stay healthy for two months and hit.

Raul Ibanez – Hit his 2nd homer in the last week and he just missed his third with a WTF (Warning Track Fly).  Also, hitting near .450 in the last week.

David Price – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 9 Ks as he recorded his 14th win.  That sound you hear is the BBWAA preparing their AL Cy Young vote for Price.  Voter, “A team win is the most important thing.  And if a guy pitches with moxie.  That’s important too.”

Anibal Sanchez – 9 IP, 0 ER, 2 baserunners (1 Hit), 8 Ks.  And he’s got a no-hitter on his resume too from 2006.  Pretty impressive given his career WHIP is 1.45.  Kind of feast or famine – fitting for a guy whose name anagrams to He’s Za Cannibal.

Roy Oswalt agreed to be traded to the Phillies after his son, Roy Oswalt Jr., broke it down to him, “Dad, the Astros suck, Ed Wade’s toupee’s been at half mast for years now and Ryan Howard Jr. promised to protect me from bullies.”  Well, the first thing you know ol’ Roy’s a millionaire… Kinfolk said Roy move away from there… Said Philadelphia is the place you ought to be… So the Oswalts pack up their stuff and are moving to Philly.  The Phils that is.  You’re looking at a guy that is a top 20 pitchers right now and that shouldn’t change.  Only thing that will change is a switch in where he’s getting his value from.  Oswalt will take a bit of a hit with his ratios.  The Juice Box’s stats only look like a pitchers’ park because the Astros’ offense is so pathetic.  It’s more neutral than anything.  Citizens Flank is a hitters’ park.  That’s a slight disadvantage for Oswalt, but the addition of a team that actually might score him runs is a positive.  The addition of Hamels and Halladay could help Oswalt since he no longer has to be the guy.  But the subtraction of Brett Myers from his life will mean he’ll need to defend himself in any barroom brawls.  For the rest of the season, I’d give Oswalt a line of 7-2/3.55/1.20/70.  I.e., a strong number two fantasy starter.

Going the other way is J.A. Happ.  He has 12 walks to 9 Ks on the year in 15 1/3 innings.  That’s a recipe for your Mom’s meatloaf that tastes like wet cardboard.  Him going to a team that won’t give him any run support is an additional setback to his value.  I wouldn’t pick up Happ with your team.

Scott Podsednik traded to the Dodgers.  Call ‘em The Podsgers!  Should be convenient for his wife — much closer to the Playboy mansion.  Or so I read in an article in Playboy about Playboy while not looking at the pictures.  So Pods comes to L.A. because Manny’s never coming back?  They really needed a pinch runner?  Not really sure what the playing time will be for Podsednik once Manny’s healthy, but I guess he could see three days a week.  He’s definitely going to see his time cut from his days on the peasant Royals.  That’ll give him more time to worry about what Lisa’s doing now that they’re in a city where the most eligible bachelor isn’t a barbecue rub salesman.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Roy Oswalt – Looks to be headed to the Phillies.  All the deal needs is his approval.  I think if the Phils throw in a tractor, Roy will be a go pitcher.  Hello Wins, Goodbye Houston.  I’ll go over this move further this afternoon if it does indeed clear and doesn’t become a Cliff Lee to the Yankees move.

Shane Victorino – As first reported here after being read elsewhere, Victorino did end up on the DL.  Which makes room for the one and only… The King of Swing… The Man Whose Upside Makes It Almost Worth Learning How To Spell His Name… The Bastard Child You Wish Your 17-year-Old Daughter Had…

Domonic Brown – 2-for-3, 2 RBIs as he was called up by the Phillies.  I just went over my Domonic Brown fantasy.  Click the link and it transports you there.  It’s magic!  Grab Brown now (how, cow?) for his upside.  Plus, you can change your team name to ‘Under Domonic Possession.’

Stephen Strasburg – Of course he was shutdown for a few days.  I’m surprised the Nats were even able to write the press release to announce this while wearing those kid gloves.  For those in H2H leagues, it could work out for you if he misses a few starts now then pitches in September.  And that’s how you look at the glass half full!

Andres Torres – 4-for-6 with his 10th homer.  Is it me or am I talking about this guy every day?  I think I am.  Know why?  Because he’s doing something every day.

Juan Uribe – 3-for-5, 4 RBIs.  He has 14 homers on the year.  Uribe’s one of those types that is fantasy relevant all year, but if you hold him all year you probably feel like you’re not trying hard enough so you pick him up and drop him a dozen times and his stats on your team look like crizzap.

Brian Wilson – 1 IP, 2 ER as he blew the save.  It must’ve been the shoes!

Brad Mills – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks.  For the low, low price of facing the O’s, you too can look like a major league pitcher!

Ben Zobrist – Left the game with lower back stiffness, which is less embarrassing than lower front stiffness.

Carlos Lee – 2-for-4 with 2 homers.  Too bad Carlosly only modifies your team once every two weeks.

Bud Norris – 6 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks.  He has 85 Ks in 80 IP, which is purdy, but I can’t recommend him outside of NL-Only leagues.  His ratios look like the bathroom in Slumdog Millionaire.

Joey Votto – 3-for-5, 2 Runs, 2 RBIs and his 26th homer.  Domo arigato, Joey Votto.

Brandon Phillips – 2-for-4, 4 RBIs and his 14th homer and 12th steal.  Is it me or do guys that get around 20/20 seem to move their homers and steals up together?

Travis Wood – 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks.  His 0.96 WHIP and 33:10 K:BB in 37 2/3 IP isn’t too shabby at all.  Hard to grab him in too shallow of mixed leagues, but he gets the Pirates next.  Argh, that’s not bad.

Trevor Cahill – 8 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks.  First dominating start against a tough offense all year.  His owners should hope that doesn’t mean he’ll now go to pieces vs. the Royals next time out.

Michael Wuertz – He came in for the save!  Then gave up a run and was removed for Breslow!  For those keeping score at home, I’m dropping Wuertz in all of my leagues.  Bailey should return in time for the A’s next game.

Jason Bay – Could still go to the DL for his concussion.  We just have to collectively think positive.  Please DL him.  Please.

Johan Santana – 5 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 14 baserunners, 2 Ks as he let everyone beat him, including the first Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.

Carlos Beltran – 2-for-5 with his first homer in, like, three years.  If anyone thinks this is a sign, you should trade him to that person.

Garrett Jones – 4-for-4, 3 RBIs and 2 homers.  Robot Jones came, Robot Jones saw and Robot Jones didn’t feel anything because he’s a robot.

Huston Street – Could return today to the closer role.  One guy who won’t be closing is Manny Corpas, who entered the game in the 3rd inning.  Unless the guy from Memento was managing.  Matt Belisle and Joe Beimel could see saves if Street can’t return, in that order.

Joel Pineiro – Out for 6-8 weeks with an oblique strain.  Maybe they can now trade him to the Diamondbacks for Justin Upton.

Will Rhymes – 2-for-5 as he played his fourth game in a row though that may change with the Peralta rental.  He still hasn’t run, but if Will’s playing he should be rhyming and stealing.

Jhonny Peralta – The Detroit Tigers were obviously embarrassed by the Matt Garza no-hitter.  So much so, that they traded for the man whose bat is almost as silent as the H in his first name.

Luis Valbuena – Was recalled with the trade of Peralta.  He was hitting in Triple-A (6 homers, .313 in 96 ABs) and could add some pop at MI.  Though I wouldn’t pick him up until I see something first.

Brian Duensing – 6 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Last year in 72 1/3 post-All-Star break innings, he had a 3.36 ERA and 2.78 in September.  I have a feeling this won’t be the last time I talk about him.  He is a Duens… Duens… Duens… Duensing machine.

Chone Figgins – Hit his first home run of the year as they let him bat from 2nd base.

Mike Montgomery | LHP-SP | Kansas City Royals | DOB: 7-1-89 | 6’5” | 180 lbs | B/T: L/L | 2008 1st rd pk #36 | KC #1 ranked prospect according to Baseball America (2010) | MiLB Player Page

In the Kansas City Royals 2009 Minor League Review that I wrote this past off-season, here is what I mentioned about Montgomery:

His curveball is considered his best pitch, his 89 to 93 mph fastball has more potential to develop velocity and movement, also throws an average changeup and the rare palmball. He is on the fast track, [he might receive a] September call-up if his 2010 season goes well. He’ll probably be getting a Scouting the Unknown article sometime in the upcoming summer.

As a Twins fan, he’s is the one player I would worry about in the Royals farm system with Mauer, Morneau, Span, and Kubel all being left handed hitters, especially Kubel who can’t touch lefties.

Looks like I can predict the future too. Baseball America said his changeup was his best pitch, John Sickels said his curveball was, Keith Law says his changeup is his best pitch – I’ll go with the majority and say his change-up is his best. Either way, his fastball sits between 90 to 93 MPH and touches 94-95 with the potential to gain more velocity as his frame fills out. His traditional curveball is getting better and the Royals are trying to phase out the palmball. Mechanically speaking, his delivery is sound and repeatable. Possesses great mound presence and is a fierce competitor (just ask his high school basketball team – he was kicked off for receiving too many technical fouls). He still needs to improve his off-speed pitches, but has been praised for his work ethic, his command, and has been compared to Andy Pettitte for his upside. How has his 2010 season fared so far? (Stats include High-A, Double-A and his four innings in the Arizona Rookie League.)

2010 Stats: 9.6 K/9 | 2.2 BB/9 | 58 1/3 IP | 1.85 ERA | 2.60 FIP | .93 WHIP | .2 Hr/9 | 6.2 H/9 | .264 BABIP | 48.7 GB% | 13.2 LD% | 30.9 FB% | 9 IF/F% | 2.1 Hr/FB% | 1.26 GO/AO

Career Stats: 8.3 K/9 | 2.6 BB/9 | 211 IP | 2.00 ERA | 3.01 FIP | 1.01 WHIP | .2 Hr/9 | .261 BABIP | 51.2 GB% | 12 LD% | 29.8 FB% | 10.1 IF/F% | 2.2 Hr/FB%

Has a great career groundball percentage (51.2 GB%), the walk ratio is falling since Class Low-A in 2009, keeps the ball in the park (.2 Hr/9 for career). Career ERA-FIP difference is largely due to his abnormally low BABIP (.261 for career and .264 in 2010), which is a concern because his ratios probably will drop a little higher in the minors, subsequently his ratios won’t look as good. It’s especially important to note that Montgomery is currently rehabbing in the Rookie Arizona League. What’s he rehabbing? A sore elbow. He’s been on the DL twice for the same injury this year. Cust kayin’. When healthy, he’s going to be mid-rotation pitcher with number two potential.

Dustin Ackley | 2B | Seattle Mariners | DOB: 2-26-88 | 6’1” | 185 lbs | B/T: L/R | 2009 1st rd pk #2 | SEA #1 ranked prospect according to Baseball America (2010) | MiLB Player Page

Dustin Ackley. Every scouts’ and fans’ dream, has some pedigree (father reached Triple-A for the Boston Red Sox), was his college’s superstar, and was drafted to be the next star in Seattle. Possesses a “pure left-handed swing, an amazing feel for hitting, good bat speed and control; Keith Law calls his swings, “one of the best in pro ball.” (Yes, just like he said about Lonnie Chisenhall). His swing is short, with some power, average power (more line drive and gap-to-gap power) not the 22 home run power he displayed in college. He also has great hand-eye coordination, and great pitch recognition. His speed ranks a 70 on the 80 scale with his wheels being called Plus-Plus (the highest it can be). He had Tommy John surgery in college and hasn’t fully recovered yet, thus, still playing second base (not first or center field like the reports were this past winter). Notice how his defense was essentially ignored? Yeah, everyone mentioned that it doesn’t matter where he plays, he’ll hit. Seems like a lame way to say they aren’t sure where he’ll play. How has his season progressed? (stats from Double-A and Triple-A.)

2010 Stats: .266/.383/.391 | 327 AB | 31 XBH | 3 Hr | .125 ISO | 8/2 SB/CS | 45:58 K:BB | .301 BABIP | 55.2 GB% | 12.5 LD% | 32.4 FB% | 15.9 IF/F%

His overall line is skewed by a .167 average in April. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is stellar, his power is in his 24 doubles, and his speed isn’t translating to the basepaths like one would hope (only eight steals while being on-base at a .383 clip). However, some of the scouting reports mentioned only 20 to 25 steals a year with moderate power (10 to 15 home runs). There are an awful lot of groundballs being hit (55.2 GB%) with few screaming liners (12.5 LD%) and a few too many infield-flies (15.9 IF/F%). He has 14 errors at second base this year, but only one in ten games at Triple-A (promoted on 7-14-2010). He’s still really young (just 22), and it’s his first season of pro ball. Gotta give him a little longer leash, especially with his pedigree (number two pick and family), but hold high expectations in check. Baseball America says there are, “no natural comparisons,” but a Dustin Pedroia comparison, sans defense, seems close for his upside with middle ground potential being Placido Polanco. Beyond that, you won’t care. As long as he stays at second base, he’ll have much more value in fantasy baseball. I think the Polanco comparison is more reasonable in this stage of his career. Possible fantasy line: 10 home runs, 20 steals with a .300 average for his typical season. His ETA: 2011; probably more a June call-up rather than a Jason Heyward start.